Florida Derby Day 2017
April 1st
Of all my racing adventures, ever, today has to rank as one of the VERY best. And as I told everyone following the day's races it wasn't any one thing, but it was the fact that today was a great South Florida weather day to enjoy being at Gulfstream Park; the racing was exciting and I got to enjoy it with twenty family & friends; EVERYONE won multiple races and had a very good time; and I won six of twelve on the Florida Derby card and had a handsome profit for the day! Let's take a look at how it all came to be......
The build up to the big day was as much a part of the story to me, even though most of those who were at the track Saturday will never really know the time I put into it. Everyone is always very appreciative, and I'd do it anyway. But on a day like today where everyone truly enjoyed not only just the day of racing, but enjoyed it because they got to cash multiple winning tickets made it an even more special day to me. I had set up the program in word doc format last week, and on Monday I finished the layout in pre-handicapping format. And then I printed out twenty copies of the cover pages. Tuesday was the day I began working in earnest. I got the past performances for Louisiana Derby Day and went through thirteen races and analyzed everyone of them....provided a top three and a betting strategy. And for the eight stakes races I provided a horse-by-horse analysis. I was nearly certain no one in the group would bet the Fair Grounds card, or even look at the analysis. But I always feel obligated to share all my picks with anyone who goes to the races with me so if/when I win they have the opportunity to join me - if they miss it because it's not a live race, that's on them. Wednesday I set up the Florida Derby analysis pages and around lunch time I watched the live broadcast online of the Florida Derby post position draw. I'm pretty sure I would have played the Derby the way I ended up playing it, but because I watched the pre-show with So Cal handicapper Jeff Siegle I heard the "inside information" of the day that sealed the deal and probably added to my wagering strategy. More on that later. My late Wednesday night the past performances were online and before I went to bed I listed all the horses and morning line odds on each individual analysis page. Thursday morning I was on the porch by 7:30 am with my coffee and working my way through the 76 horses in all nine stakes races. I finished about 1:30 pm and published the Florida Derby analysis web site with all the links and sent it out to all twenty who were in the group, as well as a link to my good buddy Jim Anderson (who we missed, with his wife quite a bit at the Derby this year after they moved to Minnesota - don't ya know) and one to my son Jeff, who is a big racing fan. I took about a thirty minute break to stretch then was right back at the computer and worked on handicapping each of the fourteen races. I finished the last race at 7 pm. So that's nearly twelve hours that I put into the handicapping process - not including the time I spent on the Fair Grounds card. Friday I spent about five hours printing the programs and a multi-page "wagering guide" with a "Closer Look" for the friends joining us for our pre-Derby Dinner party. By 5:30 everyone had arrived and I gave them a quick look at the card with a short synopsis of why I went the direction I was going and distributed the programs and wagering guides. My work was done - now it was time to simply enjoy the day at the races. Just as a footnote.....beginning Tuesday I was still handicapping each week-day card at Gulfstream (Wed, Thur, Fri); publishing it; watching the races and documenting the results!
Saturday morning we were all up and began to get ready around 8:30 am as I'd set 9:45 am as our departure time. We were out the door - in two cars - and on the road by 9:46 and arrived exactly as planned at 10:30 am. We went to the paddock for photo ops and then headed up to our seats. As we walked out the doors towards our section we saw Sue, Dan, and Lori who had just arrived and we all got comfortable. It wasn't long before six of the other eight came and I needed to go greet them to give them their tickets and programs. And by 11:30 it was time to make the bets. I went to my favorite teller - the twin, who's name is Kim (ironic, right?) - and made the bets for all twelve races I was playing. I wanted to make the bets for the Fair Grounds but the machines weren't open yet for the New Orleans races. I considered making them online, but since I didn't have a bet in either the 2nd or 3rd at Gulfstream I thought that would be a good time to take a break and go bet those. In the opener at Gulfstream, it was a second level allowance going seven furlongs. At first glance I thought I might be passing the opener but then I noticed the "winning angle." I recognized the name Clearly Now who had been a graded stakes sprinter a couple of years ago, and the now-seven year old was entered today. But the first thing that jumped off the page was that unlike most of these he was running for the $62,500 claiming tag because he'd already cleared this second-level allowance. As I scanned down his past performances I noted that the last time he'd run in allowance company, vs. non-winners of THREE company, he'd won. Farther down you find the last previous allowance try - another win. OK, we've got something. And his career earnings were well over $1 Million. He's obviously the class of the field. But then what clinched the deal......Clearly Now had wintered in New Orleans, and his trainer was one of the better Fair Grounds trainers. Not only had Clearly Now not run here at Gulfstream all winter, but the trainer has not STARTED A SINGLE HORSE here. So it begged the question - with all the big races in New Orleans, where the horse and trainer are based, WHY come here? Unless, they think they have an excellent chance to WIN! And at 10/1 in the program, this is a good bet. By post time his odds had dropped down to about 3/1 and as soon as the field had covered the opening quarter I knew we were in good shape. He was pressing the leaders but was OBVIOUSLY well within himself. Mid-way on the turn he glided to the front and accelerated into the stretch, drawing off easily. Shortly after he crossed the finish line it was announced Clearly Now had set a new track record for the seven furlong distance! WHOOOO HOOO - everyone was very happy!
And especially with the $9.40 payoff! My minimum play ticket will be worth nearly $25. Wishing at this point I'd doubled the bet. But conversely I was happy that I had decided to stick with playing the race. Both this one and the Sir Shackleton were minimum plays for me and I'd toyed with the idea of just passing both to be more conservative. No matter what happens there, it was a profitable decision to play them now! I passed both the second and third - the winners of both were not in my top three. In the fourth it was the first of the stakes, the Grade 3 Appleton going a mile on the turf. I did not like the favorite, All Included. He was the "obvious" choice off a big 101 speed figure and having just run third in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Turf Handicap. But, he'd done the same thing last year and was off the board in this race. Add in to that fact that he was 0-for-6 at Gulfstream and had not been to the winner's circle since beating Saratoga allowance runners in July 2015 - I'm against. I liked Our Way who had John Velazquez on board. And he had ridden both this one - who won the Sunshine Millions Turf last time out - and Delta Prince to victory in their last start. That Johnny V landed here sealed the deal. He stalked the pace, made what I thought would be the winning move in early stretch but then was swallowed up by All Included who won easily. In the Grade 3 Orchid going a mile and three-eighths on the turf I did not like Olorda who figured to try and wire the field from the rail - she'd done just this at marathon distances twice already. But she should have done it in her last, but didn't show much (I'd bet her). Sure enough she was out run early, compromising her chances. Unfortunately she was out sprinted to the front by my horse, Maquette, a Euro import. Now that in and of itself wasn't all bad, but she set fractions way too fast and had nothing late for the stretch run finishing 5th at odds of 7/2. The sixth was a 3yo maiden special sprint at seven furlongs......I know, is there a Todd Pletcher filly? You bet - Caviar Czar with John Velazquez. Sent off at a juicy 4/1 she made a strong bid into the stretch but couldn't stay with the leader and was a sharp second. For my buddy Jeff Nelson who was playing my picks across the board he was cashing on his third ticket from my picks. The seventh was the Sir Shackleton at seven furlongs. Just like Clearly Now in the opener, this guy had never run here and was based at the Fair Grounds. The trainer, same thing - spent the winter at the Fair Grounds and had not run a single horse here. This one was even more curious to me because there were multiple stakes races at the home track - why come here? I also liked that he finished behind a runner going in a graded stakes today in New Orleans and BOTH of his recent wins - in non-conditioned allowance - were against comparable to this field. As the field hit the far turn and I turned on my camera to video I looked and where is The Truth Or Else? WAY back in the field. No sense in even turning on the video I thought. But just as I was about to do that the track announcer said, ".....and down the middle of the track, here comes The Truth Or Else....." I got the camera in focus and cheered as he blew by to win going away! Unbelievable! And even better, check out the price......
That's right, $16.40! Oh how I wish I'd doubled the bet on both these winners so far! I have to admit I got a little extra satisfaction because about two races back one of the people in our group - a friend of a friend that I'd never met - said to me (and to be fair she said it in a way that SEEMED to be in jest), ".....hey you've only won one race today, I thought you were supposed to be pretty good at this...." Well for everyone at this point, if they had bet $2 on the twelve races I gave betting selections on you were now a winner for the day REGARDLESS of what happens in the final SEVEN races. It was shortly after this win that as I was celebrating with my buddy Jeff Nelson that I mentioned to him the Rainbow Pick-6 wager. The carry-over for today would put the pot at around $2.5 Million for a $0.20 bet. When I told him that he said he'd give it a try. So we went through races 9-through-14 and he had two to four runners in each slot. When he came back I explained, again that if he won all six he'd cash a ticket and make money, but the ONLY way he'd win the $2.5 Million was if he was the ONLY one with all six correct. Which is why it is so hard to win this bet. The eighth race was the Sanibel Island on the turf going a mile for three-year-olds. I thought that Happy Mesa was the best horse, but was far from a "mortal lock" as I liked a couple others in here. I felt pretty confident when Happy Mesa was poised to strike turning for home with a 9/1 runner on the lead, but she could not get by and just missed, finishing second. I felt VERY confident in my pick for the ninth race, a second allowance turf event going 8 1/2 furlongs. My pick was Luke's Alley who'd won the Grade 1 Gulfstream Turf Handicap last winter. While he didn't win either his prep or the Turf 'Cap this year, he had valid excuses in both. With the drop into allowance company I thought he was solid. I considered upping the bet to a "prime time" play but stuck with my initial triple investment. He came to the leader at the top of the stretch and looked to have all the momentum. But the leader would not go away.....one head up and one head down....stretch duel.....PHOTO FINISH! OH SO CLOSE. I couldn't tell. If guessing I'd say maybe we lost, but I also thought it depended on where the head bob was on the "official wire." Then the best news, the rider of Luke's Alley - with the photo sign up - took his horse directly to the winner's circle and seemed to be just waiting for the formality of the announcement. Oh this is good! Then the numbers came up - and Luke's Alley was listed second! NOOOOOO! Wait, it's a DEAD HEAT - wow that's unusual.
As you can see, it was indeed oh-so-close. Better to get a small return (less than $20 for me) than nothing - but the dead heat finish cost me about $20 more in winnings. The tenth was my BET of the Day, and nearly everyone who did serious handicapping also made Celestine their best bet. She was a multiple graded stakes winner who had won this event last year and gone on to win a Grade 1 event. She returned to the races a month ago in the Sand Springs and took on multiple Grade 1 winner Catch A Glimpse who is very quick. But Celestine outsprinted her to the front and wired the field. In this small field of five for the Grade 2 Honey Fox Stakes there were no runners even close to Catch A Glimpse. My only fear was what if someone insisted on the lead, could she run from just off the front. And that's what happened as they hit the first turn she was dueling on the front. But jockey Jose Ortiz would have none of that and immediately accelerated to the front before they hit the backstretch. She cruised through the opening three quarters and when the other four were asked to quicken on the far turn Celestine shook them off and sprinted clear to a daylight win. WHOOO HOOO, two in a row! The only "problem" for everyone who played along was that when she left the gate she was a minuscule 1/5 on the board and since nearly everyone was betting either the $2 or maybe a $5 ticket, they weren't making any money.
I on the other hand had laid down a US Grant for a $50 WIN bet and cashed for a more than fair profit of $15. As I told my daughter who was bemoaning her $6.50 return on a $5 bet, "They're GIVING away money!" :) The eleventh was the three-year-old filly feature, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. The main worry appeared to be a promising filly from the Mark Casse barn named Salty. She'd been a just miss 2nd in her debut behind a talented Todd Pletcher runner, then came back to dominated maidens with a big 91 speed figure. Her big late kick seemed ideally suited to a stretch to this 1 1/16th mile distance. But the Pletcher filly that had beaten her had come back to beat allowance company and was today in this very field. I thought Nonna Bella, who's allowance race had earned a slower speed figure than that 91 of Salty's, had better early speed AND she'd already beaten Salty - besides, it's Pletcher - at Gulfstream, duh. Nonna Bella got to the front, but had to work for it. And when they hit the far turn Salty put on a devastating big kick to blow by for the win as the favorite. My filly was 4th at 5/2. The twelfth event of the day was the Cutler Bay Stakes for three-year-olds going a mile on the turf. I explained to everyone on Friday night during my "handicapping seminar" that my pick here, Dover Cliffs was an example of one of the most consistent angles in handicapping, the "Double Beyer Advantage." The angle goes like this - when your horse has two Beyer speed figures, in their two most recent race that are BOTH better than any LIFETIME Beyer speed figure earned by the rest of the field, it gives them a huge advantage. That was the case here. But, I warned everyone, while this nearly always pointed out the winner when it popped up, the most consistent time the Double Beyer angle did NOT produce a winner was when those top numbers were earned by either lightly raced horses or in maiden races. Unfortunately, both of those circumstances were in play here as Dover Cliffs two speed figures were BOTH earned under maiden conditions and like the rest of the field he'd only been out three times. But, as I explained to everyone, if Dover Cliffs were to lose someone would have to run the race of their life. As the field got into the gate I almost said to my best pal Dan sitting next to me that the rail runner here - Gemologister - was the ONE horse, all day long that in my opinion had NO CHANCE to win. Here was an 18-time maiden loser who'd only gone long one time and had stopped badly. But for some reason I didn't, instead I asked, "Did you bet my pick here?" No, he said, you don't want to know who I went with. I gave him a quizzical look as the field broke from the gate and he said, "I took a chance on #1!" Oh my Dan. But immediately it was 80/1 Gemologister who went to the front. Dover Cliffs was stalking patiently in fourth to the far turn and I felt he was in perfect position behind a horse he OBVIOUSLY would run by. Dover Cliffs made his move on the turn and as he came to Gemologister, the 80/1 runner was in no mood to give up the lead! The two of them dueled head up and head down to the sixteenth pole before Dover Cliffs finally edged clear late to give me my FIFTH win of the day! WHOOOOO HOOOOO!
That was a great handicapping pick by Dan, who sometimes plays to place and show so I asked if he'd done that when the prices came up showing that the 80/1 longshot paid $40.80 to place and $13.60 to show. Sadly he'd only bet to win. But I'd had a triple investment and my ticket was worth over $30! Beginning with Race 9, the start of the Rainbow Pick-6 I'd had three of the four winners and in the GP Oaks my buddy Jeff Nelson had both Salty and Nonna Bella on his ticket. So as we headed into the thirteenth, the Grade 2 Pan American Handicap going 1 1/2 mile on the turf. I turned to him and said, "I think you have a really good chance to hit the Pick 6 because I don't think you'll lose this one - that leaves it on the Derby winner and you have both my pick and the obvious favorite." He replied that he wasn't getting excited about it, that you can't win six in a row until you've at least won five. As we waited for the Pan Am I told him, "I keep visualizing how we will react" - and I kept seeing us so very excited. I added that I did not think his chances of winning the $2.5 Million jackpot were great because none of the first four winners had been a big price, and the three horses he had here along with the two in the Derby were all going to be well played. But, I told him, you could be sharing more than a couple thousand on the payout. As the race unfolded it went nearly exactly as I had seen it with Bill Mott's Patterson Cross making a bold bid in mid stretch to hit the front - my pick. But in the shadow of the wire the #2 horse blew by to be just up in time. We were 2nd in a three way photo. I thought I knew the answer but I asked Jeff right after the numbers came up - you had the 2, right, he's one of your picks. He slowly pulled it out and said, "No, I had the 6 and 8." No I insisted, that was in the 12th - look, here you've got the 1-2-5-8 - you're alive in the Pick 6! Now I was really pumped. I opened up my Xpressbet app on my phone and I couldn't find the projected payoffs and they weren't showing it on the board. But I found the payouts for the Pick 5 and they were not that big. Then it flashed on the board that heading into the Derby there were over 25,000 tickets alive for the Rainbow Pick-6. When I showed this to Jeff he, like I was disappointed. But like I said, I've never been with anyone who hit the Pick-6, EVER. And to hit it on Florida Derby Day.....what a story! And so now we were ready for the 2017 Florida Derby!
I always begin looking for my Derby horse early in the meet and I thought I'd found him in Todd Pletcher's Battalion Runner. Then I was so disappointed about a week ago when I read that Pletcher had decided to enter Battalion Runner, but would most likely scratch him to run him in the Santa Anita Derby or Wood Memorial, leaving his choice for the Florida Derby to be Always Dreaming. This was disappointing to me because I thought Battalion Runner was truly an excellent pick for the Derby this year, but also because I'd seen (and won with) Always Dreaming and he had NOT impressed me at all. And then there was the rest of the field......in January at the Holy Bull Stakes I was so excited to see and bet Classic Empire who was the undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. But he was a dull third and the winner that day coasted on an easy lead. "Everyone" afterwards said that colt was the Kentucky Derby winner but I knew he'd had the easiest of trips and would be a "play against" next time out. So when he showed up in the Fountain of Youth a month ago I was totally against him. Right on with my analysis, when confronted with other speed he caved in at the top of the stretch and the speed duel had set the table for a late runner. Gunnevera came flying by to win in a visually impressive fashion and now "everyone" proclaimed HIM to be the Kentucky Derby winner. But like the Holy Bull Stakes, I thought that Gunnevera was so the beneficiary of a perfect set-up that he too was a play against. That made Battalion Runner very appealing to me, but now he was out. The rest of the field were sketchy at best unless someone could run better than I thought they might. So my early inclination was to think "who am I" to think I know better than Todd Pletcher who is and who is not a good runner for the Florida Derby :) But then this past Wednesday when I tuned in to the post position draw broadcast I caught the pre-race analysis of So Cal handicapper Jeff Siegle. He pointed out that while that last effort by Always Dreaming might appear slow, he had in fact had workouts FASTER THAN HIS RACE TIMES! Hold on a sec......that had been my complaint about him. He'd broken his maiden at Tampa by nearly a dozen lengths when coasting on a easy lead. When he came here to run in the opener on Fountain of Youth Day I did two things I next to never do - (1) bet a last out maiden winner right back in allowance company and (2) bet a Tampa shipper coming to Gulfstream. But it was a Pletcher 3yo last out maiden winner. John Velazquez took him right to the lead and a paltry 1/9 price and literally walked through the opening fractions, putting up a 1:16 pace figure which would be about TWENTY lengths slower than he'd need to run today. But now here's Siegle pointing out his workouts are faster than his race times. Hmmmmm. Then he really got my attention when he stated he's seen all 13 of Pletcher's three-year-old colts and in his opinion Always Dreaming was the most talented! REALLY? WOW that's some heady stuff! So I checked the work times and sure enough, all of his works were faster than the times he'd put up in both the Tampa and Gulfstream races. AND he figured to sit just off the "need to lead" runners well ahead of the vulnerable Gunnevera. I decided not only to make him the bet but to make him the "prime time" play! The race could not have played out any more like I'd envisioned it. He had to check slightly on the first turn as he moved outside the front runners, but heading into the far turn Velazquez had him under a firm hold tracking the pace setter that I knew would never last and Gunnevera was way too far out of it. Velazquez asked and he glided to the lead and then exploded into the stretch. As I cheered and watched I knew he was LONG gone and I had the winner!
Best of all, the last time I'd seen his odds he'd been bet down to 2/1, but he'd left the gate at a big 5/2 when a lot of late money came in on Gunnevera who struggled to be third in a photo, beaten nearly half a dozen lengths, and the $7.40 pay off meant my ticket would be worth nearly $75 to top a SIX - for - TWELVE day of handicapping on Florida Derby Day! This was FAR better than the predictions of the "professional" handicappers:
And my buddy Jeff Nelson had done something no one I'd ever been with had done, he'd hit the Pick-6! We made a video and the photo tells it all - what a great way to end Derby Day! As for the Fair Grounds selections ..... I finished two for eight with three second place finishes, but most importantly I had the winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby as well, Girvin! So my final numbers at Gulfstream were twelve selections - SIX WINS with three seconds and a third; I'd bet $165 and made a profit of $90! So funny in and of itself - one of the things I enjoy most about my passion/hobby. Early this morning my mother and father-in-law had asked was I just so excited that it was Derby Day. And I said honestly I was glad to be going to the races with so many friends and family, but by and large it would just be another day - no standouts or thoughts of having a big day. Little did I know! What a great day!
That's right, $16.40! Oh how I wish I'd doubled the bet on both these winners so far! I have to admit I got a little extra satisfaction because about two races back one of the people in our group - a friend of a friend that I'd never met - said to me (and to be fair she said it in a way that SEEMED to be in jest), ".....hey you've only won one race today, I thought you were supposed to be pretty good at this...." Well for everyone at this point, if they had bet $2 on the twelve races I gave betting selections on you were now a winner for the day REGARDLESS of what happens in the final SEVEN races. It was shortly after this win that as I was celebrating with my buddy Jeff Nelson that I mentioned to him the Rainbow Pick-6 wager. The carry-over for today would put the pot at around $2.5 Million for a $0.20 bet. When I told him that he said he'd give it a try. So we went through races 9-through-14 and he had two to four runners in each slot. When he came back I explained, again that if he won all six he'd cash a ticket and make money, but the ONLY way he'd win the $2.5 Million was if he was the ONLY one with all six correct. Which is why it is so hard to win this bet. The eighth race was the Sanibel Island on the turf going a mile for three-year-olds. I thought that Happy Mesa was the best horse, but was far from a "mortal lock" as I liked a couple others in here. I felt pretty confident when Happy Mesa was poised to strike turning for home with a 9/1 runner on the lead, but she could not get by and just missed, finishing second. I felt VERY confident in my pick for the ninth race, a second allowance turf event going 8 1/2 furlongs. My pick was Luke's Alley who'd won the Grade 1 Gulfstream Turf Handicap last winter. While he didn't win either his prep or the Turf 'Cap this year, he had valid excuses in both. With the drop into allowance company I thought he was solid. I considered upping the bet to a "prime time" play but stuck with my initial triple investment. He came to the leader at the top of the stretch and looked to have all the momentum. But the leader would not go away.....one head up and one head down....stretch duel.....PHOTO FINISH! OH SO CLOSE. I couldn't tell. If guessing I'd say maybe we lost, but I also thought it depended on where the head bob was on the "official wire." Then the best news, the rider of Luke's Alley - with the photo sign up - took his horse directly to the winner's circle and seemed to be just waiting for the formality of the announcement. Oh this is good! Then the numbers came up - and Luke's Alley was listed second! NOOOOOO! Wait, it's a DEAD HEAT - wow that's unusual.
As you can see, it was indeed oh-so-close. Better to get a small return (less than $20 for me) than nothing - but the dead heat finish cost me about $20 more in winnings. The tenth was my BET of the Day, and nearly everyone who did serious handicapping also made Celestine their best bet. She was a multiple graded stakes winner who had won this event last year and gone on to win a Grade 1 event. She returned to the races a month ago in the Sand Springs and took on multiple Grade 1 winner Catch A Glimpse who is very quick. But Celestine outsprinted her to the front and wired the field. In this small field of five for the Grade 2 Honey Fox Stakes there were no runners even close to Catch A Glimpse. My only fear was what if someone insisted on the lead, could she run from just off the front. And that's what happened as they hit the first turn she was dueling on the front. But jockey Jose Ortiz would have none of that and immediately accelerated to the front before they hit the backstretch. She cruised through the opening three quarters and when the other four were asked to quicken on the far turn Celestine shook them off and sprinted clear to a daylight win. WHOOO HOOO, two in a row! The only "problem" for everyone who played along was that when she left the gate she was a minuscule 1/5 on the board and since nearly everyone was betting either the $2 or maybe a $5 ticket, they weren't making any money.
I on the other hand had laid down a US Grant for a $50 WIN bet and cashed for a more than fair profit of $15. As I told my daughter who was bemoaning her $6.50 return on a $5 bet, "They're GIVING away money!" :) The eleventh was the three-year-old filly feature, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. The main worry appeared to be a promising filly from the Mark Casse barn named Salty. She'd been a just miss 2nd in her debut behind a talented Todd Pletcher runner, then came back to dominated maidens with a big 91 speed figure. Her big late kick seemed ideally suited to a stretch to this 1 1/16th mile distance. But the Pletcher filly that had beaten her had come back to beat allowance company and was today in this very field. I thought Nonna Bella, who's allowance race had earned a slower speed figure than that 91 of Salty's, had better early speed AND she'd already beaten Salty - besides, it's Pletcher - at Gulfstream, duh. Nonna Bella got to the front, but had to work for it. And when they hit the far turn Salty put on a devastating big kick to blow by for the win as the favorite. My filly was 4th at 5/2. The twelfth event of the day was the Cutler Bay Stakes for three-year-olds going a mile on the turf. I explained to everyone on Friday night during my "handicapping seminar" that my pick here, Dover Cliffs was an example of one of the most consistent angles in handicapping, the "Double Beyer Advantage." The angle goes like this - when your horse has two Beyer speed figures, in their two most recent race that are BOTH better than any LIFETIME Beyer speed figure earned by the rest of the field, it gives them a huge advantage. That was the case here. But, I warned everyone, while this nearly always pointed out the winner when it popped up, the most consistent time the Double Beyer angle did NOT produce a winner was when those top numbers were earned by either lightly raced horses or in maiden races. Unfortunately, both of those circumstances were in play here as Dover Cliffs two speed figures were BOTH earned under maiden conditions and like the rest of the field he'd only been out three times. But, as I explained to everyone, if Dover Cliffs were to lose someone would have to run the race of their life. As the field got into the gate I almost said to my best pal Dan sitting next to me that the rail runner here - Gemologister - was the ONE horse, all day long that in my opinion had NO CHANCE to win. Here was an 18-time maiden loser who'd only gone long one time and had stopped badly. But for some reason I didn't, instead I asked, "Did you bet my pick here?" No, he said, you don't want to know who I went with. I gave him a quizzical look as the field broke from the gate and he said, "I took a chance on #1!" Oh my Dan. But immediately it was 80/1 Gemologister who went to the front. Dover Cliffs was stalking patiently in fourth to the far turn and I felt he was in perfect position behind a horse he OBVIOUSLY would run by. Dover Cliffs made his move on the turn and as he came to Gemologister, the 80/1 runner was in no mood to give up the lead! The two of them dueled head up and head down to the sixteenth pole before Dover Cliffs finally edged clear late to give me my FIFTH win of the day! WHOOOOO HOOOOO!
That was a great handicapping pick by Dan, who sometimes plays to place and show so I asked if he'd done that when the prices came up showing that the 80/1 longshot paid $40.80 to place and $13.60 to show. Sadly he'd only bet to win. But I'd had a triple investment and my ticket was worth over $30! Beginning with Race 9, the start of the Rainbow Pick-6 I'd had three of the four winners and in the GP Oaks my buddy Jeff Nelson had both Salty and Nonna Bella on his ticket. So as we headed into the thirteenth, the Grade 2 Pan American Handicap going 1 1/2 mile on the turf. I turned to him and said, "I think you have a really good chance to hit the Pick 6 because I don't think you'll lose this one - that leaves it on the Derby winner and you have both my pick and the obvious favorite." He replied that he wasn't getting excited about it, that you can't win six in a row until you've at least won five. As we waited for the Pan Am I told him, "I keep visualizing how we will react" - and I kept seeing us so very excited. I added that I did not think his chances of winning the $2.5 Million jackpot were great because none of the first four winners had been a big price, and the three horses he had here along with the two in the Derby were all going to be well played. But, I told him, you could be sharing more than a couple thousand on the payout. As the race unfolded it went nearly exactly as I had seen it with Bill Mott's Patterson Cross making a bold bid in mid stretch to hit the front - my pick. But in the shadow of the wire the #2 horse blew by to be just up in time. We were 2nd in a three way photo. I thought I knew the answer but I asked Jeff right after the numbers came up - you had the 2, right, he's one of your picks. He slowly pulled it out and said, "No, I had the 6 and 8." No I insisted, that was in the 12th - look, here you've got the 1-2-5-8 - you're alive in the Pick 6! Now I was really pumped. I opened up my Xpressbet app on my phone and I couldn't find the projected payoffs and they weren't showing it on the board. But I found the payouts for the Pick 5 and they were not that big. Then it flashed on the board that heading into the Derby there were over 25,000 tickets alive for the Rainbow Pick-6. When I showed this to Jeff he, like I was disappointed. But like I said, I've never been with anyone who hit the Pick-6, EVER. And to hit it on Florida Derby Day.....what a story! And so now we were ready for the 2017 Florida Derby!
I always begin looking for my Derby horse early in the meet and I thought I'd found him in Todd Pletcher's Battalion Runner. Then I was so disappointed about a week ago when I read that Pletcher had decided to enter Battalion Runner, but would most likely scratch him to run him in the Santa Anita Derby or Wood Memorial, leaving his choice for the Florida Derby to be Always Dreaming. This was disappointing to me because I thought Battalion Runner was truly an excellent pick for the Derby this year, but also because I'd seen (and won with) Always Dreaming and he had NOT impressed me at all. And then there was the rest of the field......in January at the Holy Bull Stakes I was so excited to see and bet Classic Empire who was the undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. But he was a dull third and the winner that day coasted on an easy lead. "Everyone" afterwards said that colt was the Kentucky Derby winner but I knew he'd had the easiest of trips and would be a "play against" next time out. So when he showed up in the Fountain of Youth a month ago I was totally against him. Right on with my analysis, when confronted with other speed he caved in at the top of the stretch and the speed duel had set the table for a late runner. Gunnevera came flying by to win in a visually impressive fashion and now "everyone" proclaimed HIM to be the Kentucky Derby winner. But like the Holy Bull Stakes, I thought that Gunnevera was so the beneficiary of a perfect set-up that he too was a play against. That made Battalion Runner very appealing to me, but now he was out. The rest of the field were sketchy at best unless someone could run better than I thought they might. So my early inclination was to think "who am I" to think I know better than Todd Pletcher who is and who is not a good runner for the Florida Derby :) But then this past Wednesday when I tuned in to the post position draw broadcast I caught the pre-race analysis of So Cal handicapper Jeff Siegle. He pointed out that while that last effort by Always Dreaming might appear slow, he had in fact had workouts FASTER THAN HIS RACE TIMES! Hold on a sec......that had been my complaint about him. He'd broken his maiden at Tampa by nearly a dozen lengths when coasting on a easy lead. When he came here to run in the opener on Fountain of Youth Day I did two things I next to never do - (1) bet a last out maiden winner right back in allowance company and (2) bet a Tampa shipper coming to Gulfstream. But it was a Pletcher 3yo last out maiden winner. John Velazquez took him right to the lead and a paltry 1/9 price and literally walked through the opening fractions, putting up a 1:16 pace figure which would be about TWENTY lengths slower than he'd need to run today. But now here's Siegle pointing out his workouts are faster than his race times. Hmmmmm. Then he really got my attention when he stated he's seen all 13 of Pletcher's three-year-old colts and in his opinion Always Dreaming was the most talented! REALLY? WOW that's some heady stuff! So I checked the work times and sure enough, all of his works were faster than the times he'd put up in both the Tampa and Gulfstream races. AND he figured to sit just off the "need to lead" runners well ahead of the vulnerable Gunnevera. I decided not only to make him the bet but to make him the "prime time" play! The race could not have played out any more like I'd envisioned it. He had to check slightly on the first turn as he moved outside the front runners, but heading into the far turn Velazquez had him under a firm hold tracking the pace setter that I knew would never last and Gunnevera was way too far out of it. Velazquez asked and he glided to the lead and then exploded into the stretch. As I cheered and watched I knew he was LONG gone and I had the winner!
Best of all, the last time I'd seen his odds he'd been bet down to 2/1, but he'd left the gate at a big 5/2 when a lot of late money came in on Gunnevera who struggled to be third in a photo, beaten nearly half a dozen lengths, and the $7.40 pay off meant my ticket would be worth nearly $75 to top a SIX - for - TWELVE day of handicapping on Florida Derby Day! This was FAR better than the predictions of the "professional" handicappers:
And my buddy Jeff Nelson had done something no one I'd ever been with had done, he'd hit the Pick-6! We made a video and the photo tells it all - what a great way to end Derby Day! As for the Fair Grounds selections ..... I finished two for eight with three second place finishes, but most importantly I had the winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby as well, Girvin! So my final numbers at Gulfstream were twelve selections - SIX WINS with three seconds and a third; I'd bet $165 and made a profit of $90! So funny in and of itself - one of the things I enjoy most about my passion/hobby. Early this morning my mother and father-in-law had asked was I just so excited that it was Derby Day. And I said honestly I was glad to be going to the races with so many friends and family, but by and large it would just be another day - no standouts or thoughts of having a big day. Little did I know! What a great day!
Florida Derby Day Video Recap
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