Florida Derby Week / Closing Week
It's always bittersweet when Florida Derby Week rolls around. On the one hand it's what we've been pointing for since Opening Day in December and it's the biggest day / highlight event of the winter. But with Florida Derby Day comes the conclusion of the Championship Meeting at Gulfstream. And by and large the end of day-to-day handicapping (although I usually find one venue to play for a couple of months on a daily basis - albeit a shorter racing week - over the summer and/or fall). Such was the case this week as I spent a lot, and I mean A L-O-T of time preparing for the big day where we'd be hosting twenty friends and family at the races. But while all that was going on I kept up with the day-to-day handicapping and record-keeping for this final week. Here's how it played out......
Wednesday March 29
The first day of the racing week saw me play five races - I was second in two, third in another and only collected one winner on the day. In the second, a maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile Butter Up Katie dropped out of MSW company for Bill Mott and was bet down to 3/5 favoritism. Dueled through the stretch and was a very close second. The third was a starter optional claiming event with the runners sprinting an abbreviated 5 1/2 furlongs. Bling's Express looked to be the speed of the speed from the rail and I thought if he got the early lead it was all over. The big concern was that in his last TWELVE races he'd only hung on twice, but to be fair those were the only two times he was clear on the lead....so getting a clear advantage was paramount. He was off slowly, and then checked early. This isn't good as now he was in a stalking position. But he was just simply the best horse as we edged clear in mid-stretch to give me my first winner. He was a short-priced 1-2 favorite so I only cashed for fifteen dollars.
I got a good price of 5/1 in the 4th on Driving Force with Jose Lezcano. He sat the perfect trip and I thought I had something, but when asked to run he just finished evenly. In the sixth Irish Star was my "best bet" of the day going six furlongs. It was a maiden claiming event and he was cutting back from a $25K try to today's $12.5K event. Everyone saw what I did and made him 3/5.....sixth, nothing. I passed the 7th through 9th and in the finale Joe Bravo had 3/2 favorite Riviere du Loup towards the back then came flying wide through the lane......PHOTO FINISH. Track announcer called that Riviere du Loup had caught the leader on the wire, and the camera followed him on the gallop out. But then the numbers came up and he was second. :( It's a common complaint of mine with photo finishes that are so close - and especially in this race where the announcer called him the winner not once but twice. Compare the official photo at left with the still frame from the race replay on the right. See the difference? Look at the rail.......
WHY in photo finishes is the rail a constant color when CLEARLY the rail goes from red to silver? It doesn't help my "buying" the official photo that in the video the "winning" jockey is looking over at my horse BEFORE the wire and in the "official" photo he is looking over.....hmmm, when was this photo taken?
Thursday March 30
The good news about today was that I had two winners - the bad news is that I continued to be close without scoring in multiple races at short odds. In the third four of the six of this "beaten" claiming event fit the "non winners of three races" while two were five-time winners. So I narrowed it to those two. Keep Me Grounded was the 6/5 favorite....had the perfect trip and had no response through the lane finishing a well beaten fifth. I was again 6/5 in the fourth race, a non-winners of two lifetime spring going seven furlongs. Make Me was claimied out of a MC $12.5K win to run third at this level last time. With some cheap speed signed on I thought he'd get a perfect set up with Jose Ortiz on board. He waited patiently to the stretch, split horses and drew off as easily best.
Dampened the enthusiasm that I'd doubled the bet on the 3rd race loss and only had the minimum on the winner here in the fourth. My pick in the fifth was 7/2 - Last Prize for Jorge Navarro. Dueled to the stretch and gave way late - that would have made for a winning day. In the 7th I was the 8/5 favorte with Lady Devil. Gave Javier Castellano another chance in this one-mile turf event, an entry level allowance. He had every chance and couldn't get better than third. Seriously? Castellano will NOT be on any of my picks Saturday - I've seen enough. In the eight it was my "best" of the day. A maiden turf event for three-year-olds and up with a claiming tag on their head. The dozen in the race had a combined SIXTY-TWO losses (what a great number!). But Songuer was dropping from MSW to MC $50K to this MC $20K for top trainer Todd Pletcher and leading jockey Luis Saez. He was perfectly handled by Saez (unlike the way Castellano has been riding) and when asked to run he split horses at the top of the stretch and ran away as much the best. Cashed for a nice $30 payoff and I was happy once again.
In the 10th I went with another Pletcher-Saez runner. Gotachancetodance had not been out since November, but Pletcher is sharp with returning horses. But today there was no catching the odds-on winner. Didn't help that as I was making a threatening bid up the rail I was checked sharply and lost all chance.
Friday March 31
The last week-day racing of the winter produced a one-win day. Disappointing. I was leading into the stretch in the third with John Velazquez for Todd Pletcher on the turf. But when heads turned for home Helmet Head (9/5) gradually faded to be fourth. I bounced back with a nice win on Pletcher's Liberty Kitten in the fourth, an entry-level allowance going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. She was coming back off a layoff and both times she'd come off a break she'd run well - Pletcher hitting at a 35% clip with those kind. She stalked to the stretch, moved three wide and took off. Easy, peasy, pie.
Collected $25 on my double investment. Dreaming of Neno looked to easily wire the sixth and was pounded down to 2/5 favoritism by the crowd. Dueled into the lane with a price play that I just knew he'd put away, but in the final two hundred yards HE gave way to be second. WOW. In the ninth Spice Lady looked good to me in the feature. She was a very generous 2/1 but could not catch the odds-on winner who was exiting a MSW win when drawing off by ten plus lengths.
Florida Derby Day. What a great day - read all the details on the Florida Derby page, click
Florida Derby Day Recap Video
Sunday April 2
I knew after spending so much time on the Derby Day handicapping and program printing that I would not have any time to handicap the final day of the meet, so I closed the process with the Derby card. But I saw that most of the best jockeys were headed to Tampa today for their Florida Cup Day program. In the fourth race, the $100K Florida Turf Cup multiple graded winner, World Approval - who I'd had on more than one occasion was making his 2017 debut. He just laid over the field on class so I made him the lone bet of the day. Sat patiently just off the leader to the far turn, asked to run he hit a whole other gear and ran away under a hand ride. Nice to close the winter with a decisive winner on a "BEST Bet of the Day" :)
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