Obviously the best news was that my oldest son and his family were in town, and I cannot begin to explain just how great it was that my oldest grandson, Cameron, was just beside himself with excitement to be at the races. He clung to me and had a million questions and cheered like there was no tomorrow. Made the two days results much easier to accept as I went winless. To be "fair" the cards this week are HARDLY "Gulfstream-worthy" as they are so reminiscent of Calder mid-week race cards. Still I found picks in six of them and a second and three thirds to show for it.
Friday December 23
But I FINALLY got a winner with my "best" of the day on Friday when Grateful rallied for trainer Todd Pletcher and was JUST up in the final strides in a 2yo MSW on the turf on Friday. One for three on the day with two off-the-board finishes (at 4/5 and 6/1). No racing over Christmas weekend, but there is a special holiday card on Monday the 26th and I'll have some picks then.
Monday December 26 - Opening Day at Santa Anita
Well, the way I'll remember this day is that I hit my BET of the Day, which was my featured race at Santa Anita; I hit the featured stakes race at the Fair Grounds; and scored with a Gulfstream 40% Club runner who "didn't figure" on paper or form; and enjoyed a gorgeous day in the warm winter weather at Gulfstream. The bad news was I had seventeen selections from the three tracks and had only four winning runners, and one of those was disqualified :( NOT the kind of handicapping results I was thinking I'd have today. And to add to the "downside" of this is that I was at Gulfstream for four races and only scored with one (the only win of the day locally). At Gulfstream I knew I was going against logical favorites in the first two races. In the opener I didn't like the odds-on favorite who was DRF's Mike Welsch's best - and he ran off the board. In the 2nd a Pletcher runner, my second choice scored in the opener at 2/1. I didn't like that he was moving from conditioned company to open claiming company. I was third there at 7/2. In the third my pick was Over the Limit who was a Gulfstream 40% Club selection on several angles for trainer Jorge Navarro. But his overall record was 21/1-3-4 - ouch. But he broke right on top and coasted home easily without ever being asked.
In the fourth, and the final race I would see live, I thought Navarro's Defer Heaven looked easily, EASILY best. Coming off a win in the Claiming Crown Express with a big 94 Beyer he laid over this Starter Optional field. Dueled for a half mile then spit it up to be fifth at 1/2 odds with a prime time bet for me. Disappointing. I made the rest of my bets and headed for home; and within an hour we were on the road to O-Town. Later in the evening I watched the replays. Off the board in four straight, three at Gulfstream (3/1, 9/5 and 8/5 - wow). In the third at Santa Anita I opened the replays and the "Show results" window was open and I saw that the $21 winner was #2. I was #9. I watched the race anyway and my pick, 9-Dabster, from the Bob Baffert barn was pressing the leaders into the lane. I thought, he looks like a winner to me. And as he moved to mid-stretch he was having to fight off the closers, but he dug in and fought hard to the wire....PHOTO finish! The "Show results" must have been for another race I thought. The slow-motion replay showed him winning! HORRAY! Then the "Objection" and "INQUIRY" signs went up. I watched the head on and to be honest I've seen "infractions" like this come down, but I've also seen runners who drift out like this stay up. Could have gone either way, but with the way my results have been going, I wasn't surprised that he came down. But even with the minimum investment, Dabster was 4/1 and I'd have cashed for $25 or more. Sigh.....Next up was the featured Tiffany Lass Stakes from the Fair Grounds. I wrote in my analysis that there were two questions here......would Danzatrice - from the Steve Asmussen barn - run back to her form and/or did the program favorite, Include Betty, simply have too much class for these. I thought Danzatrice had bounced off a huge effort off a layoff of fifteen months two back, and with today being third off the shelf. As for the favorite, she had a ton of class but she showed a single victory since September 2015 with both graded wins on her resume against questionable company....and at big prices. Danzatrice looked like a winner throughout and when asked at the top of the lane to run, she exploded to a daylight score without being pushed for her best. Include Betty made her late run, but only second best.
And the price - a juicy 3/1 so that the $8.40 payoff will result in a $42.00 return to me when I'm next at Gulfstream Park! WHOOO HOOO! I was 2nd at a big 6/1 in the Gulfstream feature, the Margate Stakes. Sidenote - today was supposed to be the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector, but only five entered and three of them were Navarro runners so the race was postponed to later in the meet. The rest of the runners didn't produce - two thirds and three 7th place finishes - and in there was an even money pick, a 9/5 and an 8/5. Just not my day I guess. But my BET of the Day came in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile. I had been a fan of Conquest Enforcer when he was running this summer at Woodbine and thought he had a bright future. But, this fall Conquest Stables dispersed their runners and Conquest Enforcer was purchased for $758K by his new west coast connections. His last work for this was a best of 120 bullet move. He was Brad Free's best bet and I thought he would truly show his best today. He went right to the front but faced pressure through legitimate fractions all the way through the far turn. I was hoping he had the talent to fight off the challenge but if I'd been asked I would have told you it was likely he'd be run down late. Instead at the furlong pole he found another gear and opened up - scored with authority! AMAZING!
The fine 9/5 payoff led to a return of nearly $85 and brought me within range of a minimum loss for the day. At this point, I'll take it considering I was only cashing on three of seventeen for the day. Back at it in two days! As you can see by the photo of me - the weather, to die for....especially if you live up north in the frigid temps and mountains of snow :)
My first recollection of a "Big Day" in racing came when I hit the exacta at the 1988 Breeders' Cup held at Gulfstream Park when Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer. That year for Christmas I asked for a picture of that great finish, and so began my "Wall of Fame" in my racing den / computer room. To read the stories behind all the pictures on my "Wall of Fame" scroll down........
All of the Wall of Fame photos have great stories, after all that's why they are on the Wall of Fame. But this may be one of the best STORIES behind a thoroughbred star on my wall. You have to go back to the 2015 Breeders' Cup at Keeneland where my buddy Keith and I were in the grandstand on BC Saturday. While I was having a fairly good weekend of handicapping Keith was struggling. It was time for the Breeders' Cup Mile and as he looked over his program he turned to me and said, "I'm going to bet a Trifecta Box, which horses do you think do not hit the board here?" I immediately said, "Toss the #7" ...... he looked in the program and then at the board and said, "Tepin? She's one of the favorites?" I immediately replied, "SHE DOESN'T HIT THE BOARD! I've seen her run her last two and she's doesn't win today." He gave me "that look" and said, "OK tough guy, but I'm looking for horses who won't hit the board, not win" I reiterated that I didn't think she would even hit the board, "vastly overrated" was the phrase I used. I then gave him the 1-2-4-and 10 horses to toss. As they came down the lane it was Tepin who ran away to win the race....followed by the 4-1-and 10 horse. WOW. He gave me "that look" again and as we laughed heartily he said, "I will always remember this weekend as the day you told me that the 7-1-4-10 wouldn't win and they finished 1-2-3-4! Fast forward to January. It was Tampa Bay Derby Prep Day and I was at Gulfstream. The feature at Tampa was the Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes. The program favorite was Tepin. Now what.....was I really right all along or was she really this good? I thought she was too good and made her the "BET of the Day." She romped as much the best. A month later in the Grade 2 Hillsborough on Tampa Bay Derby Day I was on track with my father-in-law Ed and again Tepin was my BET of the Day. Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings was SIXTEEN lengths in front down the backstretch and half a dozen in front turning for home but HERE CAME TEPIN to nail her on the wire. I had $50 to win.....twice! WHOOOO HOOOO! Next up was the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley and Tepin walked with it. Finally, on Kentucky Derby Day, May 7, 2016 she was the favorite in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Mile. Isabella Sings looked loose on the lead again, and unlike the Hillsborough at nine furlongs, she might steal it at this one mile distance. I went back and forth on the wager size and finally decided on a $100 WIN bet. But I had a "little something up my sleeve!" The week of the Derby I'd received a letter from Xpressbet that if I brought this letter in to Gulfstream they would "give me" $100 in free wagering money. So on Oaks Friday I went to the desk and "cashed it in." The lady reminded me I'd have to make wagers of at least $100 within 30 days to collect the money, and I replied, "Oh, that won't be a problem." So before leaving for the track on Derby Day I made a $50 win bet on Tepin. My Wall of Fame play was a cool $150 to win! WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO
Finally, the wait was over! After 37 years a Triple Crown winner. And it could not have come with a better horse, or with better circumstances. In the fall of 2014 American Pharoah was a surprising loser in his debut at Del Mar in a maiden special event. But he was so highly regarded that he returned for his second start in the Gr 1 Del Mar Futurity - yes, a Grade 1! And he walked with it. He was my top choice in his next start, the Grade 1 Forerunner at Santa Anita as a final tune-up for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Again he was my choice and he was dominant. But he was unable to run in the Breeders' Cup due to an illness.
After being crowned the Juvenile Champion, he made his 2015 debut as a three-year-old in the rain-soaked Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. This was significant to me because Kim & I were already booked to travel to Hot Springs, Arkansas to watch the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on Friday and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on Saturday. I was so hopeful he'd come back to run there. He did, and he was such an impressive winner I told several people that I'd only seen three races in my lifetime that had taken my breath away, and that was one of them. With that win he was my Kentucky Derby pick, and I told everyone that it was the most confident Derby pick I'd ever had. My son Jeff then posted my analysis all over the Internet and many of his friends were on board with us. American Pharoah was all washed out in the paddock, didn't handle the track, and was five wide all the way around the Louisville oval.......but STILL won! I had booked my trip and tickets to the 2015 Preakness months in advance and how lucky was I to be able to see American Pharoah again! I told the fellas I was sitting with that I thought he'd actually take a big leap forward today. Right before the horses were saddled the sunny skies opened up with a torrential rainfall that lasted throughout the race. But if anything I was even more confident that American Pharoah would win based on his performance in the slop at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes. As I watched (in the clubhouse!) he roared to the front and blew the field away.
All that was left was the Belmont.....but could he break the 37 year jinx and go 1 1/2 miles after racing three times in five weeks? I thought he looked much the best and he was. How fortunate to have seen him live twice in this most remarkable season! And as it so happens, his stated goal was to come back in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Clasic at Keeneland......where I had tickets!
Untapable makes the "Wall of Fame" for several reasons, but the biggest story behind her is the bet I made......here's the story. Going back to mid-winter she surfaced in the Grade 3Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds. She was coming off a layoff and had scored in the Grade 2 Pocohontas over the Churchill Downs main track, so I thought - and wrote that day - that while she was NOT my pick that day, she looked to be setting up for a big run at the Kentucky Oaks. Well, despite the layoff she destroyed the field that day. So when she came back in the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks on Florida Derby Day whe was my "Bet of the Day." Untapable walked with that race. So in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks she was going to be my "Bet of the Weekend!" I handicapped the Oaks card first and settled on a $100 win bet. Then I handicapped the Derby card and thought Wise Dan stood out over the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, and I put down $100 to win as my bet on him. Then I thought......if Untapable is the "Bet of the Weekend," and I'm betting $100 on Wise Dan, shouldn't my bet reflect the extra confidence? I debated for three days about going for a bet that would rival any level I'd ever played. I was still undecided as I headed out to Gulfstream to bet the races on that Friday. But I took enough money IF I was willing to make the play. Finally I resolved with myself that I would start with a $50 bet and keep going as long as I felt confident. Well, as you can see by the photo and in the video recap of Oaks Day I went all the way up to a $200 to WIN wager - that's as big as I've ever made - I think I made that bet once before some dozen years ago! When she romped home at even money I was making a profit of $200! What a great score - and that carried me through the entire meet where I won a near-record high 40% and profited over $400!
Before the 2012 Breeders' Cup I wrote this about Mizdirection: "A VERY intriguing prospect, especially at a price as I anticipate her to be. On the downside she has not run since the end of May when second as the 2/5 favorite in a Hollywood Park flat-course turf sprint going six furlongs. But, on the upside, she's raced down the mountain here at Santa Anita twice and WON BOTH TIMES! Even more encouraging is to note that she won one of them on the lead, and came from off the pace when the fractions were sizzling, as they should be here today. This four-year-old filly just might be the one. UPSET SPECIAL!." And in my final selections, I wrote, "Toss anyone who's NOT a winner down the hillside and you're down to a very short list of contenders. Because she's a filly and coming off a long break, this one could go off at a big price. Note she's won six of ten career starts and is unbeaten down the hillside. UPSET SPECIAL!" She won and paid $15.80 while I had tripled the bet and collected nearly $120. I followed her through three straight more wins at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 Monrovia in January, then the Grade 2 Buena Vista in February, and again in the Grade 3 Las Cinegas in April. The first and last of that trio of races were down the hill. She shipped to New York and was sent a mile in the Grade 1 Just a Game which I thought was a mistake on all three counts, she faded to fifth without my support. So heading into the 2013 Breeders' Cup she was coming off a five month break, which was shorter than the 2012 break leading to her win, and she had run her downhill record to FIVE-for-FIVE. I wasn't as convinced she would be a price, nor that she was as good a play, but originally planned to go prime time on her ($20 to win). But I restructured my bets after losing on Friday in the Distaff and downgraded my bet to $10. Yet, right before the race a former student/player and his wife arrived and he texted me to ask who was the bet. He asked how much....and I assumed he meant how much had I already bet; but he meant how much should he bet FOR me. So as he walked up prior to the race and gave me the ticket I was back to a PRIME TIME investment. She was up in time, again, just like last year! The payoff yielded nearly $75 and she immediately became a shoo-in for the Wall of Fame!
If you look at Wise Dan's record below, heading into the August 10, 2013 Grade 2 Fourstardave Handicap, I have been on him in EVERY race going back to his win in the Grade 3 Ben Ali over the Keeneland main track. Over that period of time I've invested $475 on him.....he's won 8-of-9 starts for me, and I've collected $752.00, for a one-horse profit of nearly $300! All of that would be good enough to make him a unanimous inductee to my "Wall of Fame." But what sealed his photo's destiny to hang on my wall for ever more, and probably will always be my FAVORITE story from all my pictures was what happened on Breeders' Cup Day 2012 at Santa Anita Park. The long and the short of it is that my son Brad bet on him.....and bet on him big unbeknownst to me. We cashed our tickets for well over $400 together and so our photo becomes the only one on the "Wall of Fame" other than a horse picture. The video above is well worth the watching as this moment is forever recorded in time! Below you can watch replays of Wise Dan's multiple wins for me in graded stakes races leading up to and following the Breeders' Cup.
Groupie Doll
Groupie Doll: Breeders' Cup 2012 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
It was the BEST BET of the weekend. All week I knew I had five "BEST BETS" and though I felt awfully certain they would all win, I knew that the most likely event was that three would win. And with large investments on what figured to be favorites, my profit/loss for the weekend would depend on my wagering strategy. I felt going into Friday that both Executiveprivilege and Royal Delta were 2nd tier "Best Bets" and so I settled on $20 investments...................I had been saying all along that the "BET of the Weekend" was Wise Dan in the Mile. But realistically, of the three races I liked the most on Saturday, this was the one that featured the toughest set of rivals and possibilities for an upset. Game On Dude in the Classic looked so tough, but I was hesitant to make him "the one" since he'd been run down last year when clear in the stretch.....I THOUGHT being on his home track would make the difference. And so it fell to Groupie Doll to be "the chosen one." As I woke up Saturday I made my firm decision - I would make her the choice. My intention was to bet the planned $50 on her and then if I felt settled with it I'd make another $50 bet later in the day. But by the time I made it to the windows I was all but certain, and after making all my investments I asked for the extra ticket. Kim and I went to the paddock right after the 4th and waited to see her come into the walking ring. Awesome. She towered, physically over many of her rivals today and looked the picture of health. I'd read in the Daily Racing Form that since arriving in California she had worked sensationally and then what cinched it for me was when I read the trainer said she was "squealing" with delight at how good she felt on Thursday. It's going to take a lot to beat her I thought, and so I made the bets. We went out to the rail where we got a good spot at about the furlong marker and I waited anxiously (see middle photo). As they broke and announcer Trevor Denman remarked "the rider is having to work hard to hold her position" I was a small bit concerned, but I knew she didn't need to be up close. Then came "THE MOVE" on the far turn. She swooped by half the field and was suddenly on the flank of the leader, Dust and Diamonds - who is a very good filly. Then as heads turned for home she found another gear and surged by. Dust and Diamonds would not go away, but as she passed us she found yet ANOTHER gear and she was gone! Whooooo Hoooooo. It was a natural that she'd be next on the "Wall of Fame." And in an interesting sidebar, the three Breeders' Cup Champions that now hang on my wall (as of this writing) are all fillies/mares! Zenyatta - Royal Delta - Groupie Doll!
It was July 21, 2012 and Kim and I were vacationing in San Diego. One of the highlights of the trip was bound to be the day we spent at Del Mar, one of my favorite race tracks. I had been a huge fan of Acclamation for two years and I felt so fortunate when I saw the race schedule for today and it included the Grade 1 Eddie Read as the feature race. This race was nine furlongs on the turf and who was the program favorite? None other than my favorite older turf horse than Acclamation!
Kim and I were joined on track by one of my former students and football player, Joel Desguin who has become a regular follower of my racing via Facebook. We all had lunch together overlooking the paddock and I didn't have a bet in either of the first two races at Del Mar. But the third was my "BET of the Day" as well as my first selection on track - it was the Eddie Read. I had $50 to win on Acclamation and I didn't see any way he would lose this race.
As the gate sprung open he easily cruised to the lead and as they came down the chute onto the main turf course they passed right in front of us. Acclamation continued to lead without pressure, loose on the lead at a nice easy clip until they hit the far turn. I could see he was accelerating, and as they spun out of the far turn and ran in front of us in our reserved grandstand seats he found another gear and was L-O-N-G gone! Whooo Hoooo! I knew I'd have to add his photo to my Wall of Fame, not only as one of my favorite runners, but because I had been on track when this one ran his "Wall of Fame Race!"
Having just been to Australia last spring, we'd met many people who upon hearing of my interest in thoroughbred racing, wanted to know if I had heard of the Australian superhorse, the unbeaten Black Caviar? Of course I had. But the one thing I knew about her was that in spite of being a legitimate star, she'd never ventured beyond Australia to race. When I heard she was going to run at Royal Ascot, on the Saturday after Frankel's return to the races on the previous Tuesday, I was very excited! She looked like a legitimate superstar and was heralded as such by all the analysts heading into the race.
As the race unfolded, everything went as scripted and with two furlongs to go her jockey asked for her run and she spurted clear. But instead of drawing off she ran on evenly. As they went inside the final furlong two closers were making up ground to her outside, but she looked to be clear to the win. And then jockey Luke Nolen stopped riding as though she'd already crossed the finish line! The closers surged and with about 20 yards to go he saw them, then desperately asked Black Caviar for one last burst! It was agonizingly close, but she'd won! How foolish everyone thought, he'd almost cost her her spot in history! But then afterwards it was discovered she'd raced with two torn muscles and bruising in her hind quarters....and all this while racing in a month that she'd always had as a month off....she so was over-raced and injured and STILL won! Later Nolen admitted he knew something wasn't quite right and thought she had enough to win, so he HAD eased up on her without asking her to perserve. Still, it was an amazing race and a performance - with what we now now - worthy of legendary status!
Today H-A-S to be considered a winning day for a variety of reasons....none of which have to do with making money (which I didn't). But it WAS all about sticking with it and not giving in to negative feelings after a slow start. And I have to be honest that after the first hour and a half of racing the thought flashed through my mind, "....what if I run out of money and don't cash a ticket?...." But then I quickly "stood up to myself" and reminded my doubting fears that I ALWAYS win some races and that I should know that after some 19,000+ races I ALWAYS win around 30% to 35% of my selections. So here's how the day unfolded. Because Kim was going to be out of town this weekend I decided to add on a couple more tracks that I typically do not play and so as I headed out to Gulfstream around 11 am I had four pages of selections from some ... tracks: Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Tampa Bay, the Fair Grounds, Los Alamitos, and the two new ones to the group: Mahoning Valley (from Youngstown, Ohio) and Turfway Park (from Florence, Kentucky just outside Cincinnati). I was surprised when I opened up the Turfway pp's that their first race post time was not until 6:15 pm because it HAS to be frigid for the fans and especially the riders! I had put Mahoning on the list because last weekend Jim and I had talked about them briefly and I wanted to see how I would do there. My first pick was from there, a 3-lifetime allowance where Mo Big Deal looked the be the lone speed. Dueled with a longshot and faded to be third at even money. The Gulfstream opener was a MSW for 2yo on the turf and I liked Todd Pletcher's Bee R Bee who figured to be a price. She was, a huge 12/1 - could I be making a BIG score? Never close, 7th. Then nothing seemed to be going the way it should......2nd at Aqueduct at 3/5 after a race-long duel; 5th at 8/5 on Wild Cheers from Tampa when clear into the stretch and then stopped on a dime; 5th again, again at 8/5 in the Mahoning 3rd on a 9x winner at the track. Then you KNOW it has to be an off day when at Aqueduct in a 2yo stakes my pick, Gold For The King was a prohibitive 1/5 and ran second. The first of three graded stakes at Gulfstream was the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl. I had some doubts about Stonetastic, but she looked EASILY the lone speed. My second choice was Dearest who, on figures, was as fast, but she'd built up her resume on the weaker summer competition here. The gates opened and Stonetastic went right to the front and I thought the wire-to-wire win by the favorite was already over. But by the time they hit the turn Dearest had confronted her and as they turned for home she drew off and my pick faded to third. WOW. The fourth at Mahoning resulted in an off-the-board fifth as the overwhelming 3/5 choice. EIGHT straight losses - not the way I saw this day unfolding. Then I got a text message from one of my former Cypress Bay colleagues.....Jennifer Cook. She had many times for a couple of years talked about coming out to the races to see what it was all about and I'd told her early in the week via FB message that today would be a "big day" to come. Her message said that she and her husband were on their way if I was still going to be there. This brightened a day that had NO bright spots at all. Next up was the 4th from Tampa and my choice Pacific Image went off at a more-than-generous 5/2 and wore down the 40/1 leader in deep stretch.....a WIN! WHOOO HOOO. With my double investment I'd be cashing for a handsome near-$40. Ok then! Up to my seats to watch the featured (in my mind it was the best of the three graded stakes) Grade 3 Rampart. When I'd looked over the field it was OBVIOUS that the lone speed was lightly raced Curlin's Approval. But he'd never seen graded company nor had he ever gone beyond seven furlongs - today was a mile. Genre was the obvious favorite as she'd won the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher at Monmouth and had twice beaten her stablemate Eskenformoney. Both were from the Todd Pletcher barn and my initial inclination was to make Genre the pick. But Eskenformoney had Javier Castellano on and I thought, "...could this be one of those races at Gulfstream where afterwards handicappers are asking how Pletcher-Castellano win a graded stakes at such a big price?......" Could I make a case for her? At first I thought no, since she'd been twice beaten by Genre. And to be honest, after I'd cashed on her in her maiden win last winter I always had thought she was overrated. But as I scanned down her pp's I came to it......
The key was NOT found in the past performances of Eskenformoney who showed not one, not two, but THREE recent losses to Genre. But when you look back in Genre's pp's you see the key. One thing you just HAVE to accept when you play Gulfstream is that (a) Pletcher horses just run lights out here and (b) Castellano is magic with horses here in the winter. And there it is.....last winter, at THIS one-turn mile distance Eskenformoney had beaten Genre not once, but twice! Now you could say their form is much different now, but knowing how things often play out here at Gulfstream, that was enough for me. AND I thought Genre would hook up with Culin's Approval to give the perfect race flow for Eskenformoney on HER track at HER distance. If anyone had been with me at this point in the day and I'd explained what I thought I was going to happen they would have sworn I must have some mystical powers to see the future because the race unfolded EXACTLY like this. As they swung through the far turn Eskenformoney made her move and by mid-stretch she'd edged clear to WIN! And best of all, check the price......
OH MY! That's right, $13.20 and with my investment I'd be cashing for nearly $70! So since I got Jennifer's text I'd gone 2-for-2, collected over $100 and suddenly it was a new day! I was sorry that she and her husband had not arrived in time for what would probably be the Upset of the Day, but right after I cashed my tickets they arrived and we met in the paddock. I immediately told her that she was today's good luck charm :)
They bet the 6th with me where I liked one of two Todd Pletcher runners, I went with the price play under Velazquez. Ironically my pick, High Above went off at a fair 5/1, but the other - Faja - under Castellano was nearly 7/1 and won handily, paying an amazing $15.80. WOW. I explained to Jen and her husband that I was playing multiple tracks today and so they joined me as I went to the simulcast area and watched my "Aqueduct best bet" in their 6th race. As we waited for them to load into the gate I explained to Jennifer that one of the things that helped in handicapping was when you learn things through experience, and that this race was one of those. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott never has his runners ready to fire in their debut, so when they run well at first asking it's a sign of an impending big effort. Such was the case with Lockdown who had chased a loose-on-the-lead winner going a mile, while racing wide AND had held second from one of today's rivals. The stretch to a mile-70 today and with a great initial run made me think he'd run huge today. He was 5/2 in the program but as they hit the far turn he floated up to 3/1 and I was tingling with excitement. He opened up through the stretch and won convincingly!
When the prices came up and he paid a whopping $8.20 I was going to collect $82 on my "prime time" investment and had duly impressed the Cooks :) Next was the Grade 3 Harlan's Holiday and the choice was between front-running Stanford - a Pletcher runner - and his stablemate Keen Ice who had only two wins to his credit, but one was the Grade 1 Travers in 2015 when he handed American Pharoah his only defeat of the year. As a closer he needed pace up front and I thought Stanford would get pressure so I went with Keen Ice who was new to the Pletcher barn, was third off the layoff, and was getting Castellano.....who had ridden Stanford in his previous races. I told the Cooks that this was my Gulfstream "best" and so they bet with me. Disappointed that Stanford went unchallenged on the lead and Keen Ice was a late running 2nd. Sigh...... I led the Cooks back inside for the 3rd from the Fair Grounds, their featured Bonapaw Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. I was thinking "outside the box" by picking Green Mask who was clearly the class of the field based on earnings and the level of races he'd run in. But he also had SEVEN defeats from his last eight starts, but all against better. As they left the gate I explained to Jennifer that I was hopeful he wouldn't "let another win" like he usually does. As they turned for home he hooked the leader and from the furlong pole to inside the final 100 yards Green Mask would not go by and I thought I should have known better, but in the final strides he surged to WIN! Again, the Cooks were impressed :)
The El Prado Stakes on the grass at Gulfstream was next. Heart to Heart was a front-running fool and was a perfect 2-for-2 in graded stakes here, AND he had the rail. BUT I noted both of those came when loose on easy leads with half mile splits in :48 and change. He looked to get pressure today and would have to run faster which would lead to defeat. And, as I explained to Jen's husband, if you had a graded stakes winner why would you run in this listed $100K when there are graded events ahead? So they bet with me on Go Around from the Bill Mott barn. Jockey Julian Leparoux, who had been 0-for-26 until he won a race yesterday, got Heart to Heart loose on the lead and everyone let him go. WOW. Wire to wire. The Cooks left after this and thanked me for a fun afternoon - promising to make another trip later this winter to begin to "build Jennifer's retirement" :) I was sorry that (a) the Cooks missed the big upset with Eskenformoney and (b) didn't see a winning race, but as I explained to Jennifer later via Facebook messaging, to truly make money on any given racing day - which is never a guarantee - you need to spend the day there, not just a couple of hours. After saying goodbye my losing woes returned as Southern Ring was 4th at 3/1 in Tampa's Lightning City Stakes, a turf sprint; Running Mate was third as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite in the Sugar Bowl at the Fair Grounds and Avie's Mesa was a non-threatening 5th here at Gulfstream over the turf despite being bet down from 10/1 to 3/1 at post time. And then Italian Syndicate looked so obvious at Aqueduct but was only 2nd at 5/2 in a maiden claiming sprint. I finally snapped out of my second losing skid of the day to score with Sonoma Crush who truly "crushed" her AOC nw1x foes. The 8/5 price led to a payoff of $26 for me. Kitten's Roar dueled with Cash Control the length of the Fair Grounds stretch in the Blushing KD on the turf. I went with Kitten's Roar because Cash Control had lost for me at odds-on on the Indiana Downs undercard against lesser. But I couldn't get by and was second, again. My next bet was my first at Los Alamitos in their fourth race. I liked Princess Tiznow who had debuted with a good third last summer at Del Mar. You could toss her fall turf try in her second start. Then in her third she'd dueled vs. better company before finishing as a best of the rest 2nd. The class drop today, and the previous race show of early speed would make her the play. But what caught my eye was that DRF handicapper Matt Bernier made her his BET of the Day. He never likes the favorites! Hmmmm. Doubled the bet. As I went inside to watch she was the 6/5 favorite. But as they walked towards the gate she dropped to 4/5. Somebody knows something I thought! I hustled to the windows and put down another $10 to WIN. She tracked the leaders to the far turn and took off as much the best! WHOOOO HOOOOO! The $3.80 payoff meant I'd cash for nearly $40 since I'd doubled my own double investment! The 10th at Gulfstream was the final stakes race, the South Beach. Last year I'd picked Sandiva in a stakes race, but was hesitant and only bet $5. Watched her win at a fair price and chastised myself because (a) she's a Pletcher runner, (b) has Castellano on board regularly, and (c) ALWAYS runs big here. So when I saw her in the entries I knew she'd be the play and NOT as the minimum. Still, a bit leery so I only doubled the bet. She forged to the lead at a fair 5/2 price and was briefly clear before a 6/1 outsider ran by. She re-rallied to make it close, but no better than 2nd. Sigh.......I decided then that I would leave after the finale here and the 7th at the Fair Grounds even though there wasn't any reason to rush home to an empty house. In the finale I bet the minimum on Delphinia - this was a 2yo maiden special WITHOUT a Pletcher runner. And while Delphinia looked best from the Wesley Ward barn, the rail is not the place to be if you hesitate even a moment in a turf sprint. But she didn't and wired the field to give me my seventh winner on the day!
As I looked at my sheet I made a quick count of my wins so far and thought, ".....I'm making a nice little comeback since that 0-for-8 start!....." While awaiting the start of the Gulfstream finale I made the decision to bet the late races at Turfway online via my Xpressbet account, so I went to my favorite teller who is a twin named Kim (and her sister Karen works two chairs down as a teller and is also a favorite to bet with) and bet the remainder of the Fair Grounds races on my sheet and two races from Los Alamitos, including my BET of the Day. I was pretty confident that Chocolate Ride would win the Dibartolo Memorial at the Fair Grounds. He is a "Horse-for-the-Course" in New Orleans with a 8/6-1-0 record to date. Sent off as the 6/5 favorite I was surprised he didn't contest the early lead, but he has won from just off the pace. Made a bold move into the lane, split horses and was asked to sprint for home......ran evenly to disappoint in 4th. Unlike two weeks ago the trip home was smooth as silk and I was home by 6:15 pm. I fixed my dinner and sat down to watch the simulcast replays. In the first at Turfway Main Man Mike was second (again) as the 1/2 favorite - not thrilled that this was the way my "new track" was starting after being shut out at Mahoning Valley earlier today. Then in the 7th at Los Al Bob Baffert's Americanize justified my triple investment and was tons the best in winning her MSW sprint. The short 3/5 odds meant I'd only cash for $25 and change when I next go to GP. I was a good 4/1 in the 10th at the Fair Grounds but only 2nd, AGAIN! The third at Turfway saw my pick, Matchbook Lily sent off at even money......SECOND, AGAIN! WOW. Then it was time for my BET of the Day - the featured Winter Challenge at Los Al, a race that had been written especially for champion California Chrome to serve as a prep for the $12 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup her at Gulfstream in January. Chrome has always been based here and prepped for all his big efforts, but ironically he'd never raced here. So this was a great way for the champ to say goodbye to his fans. He figured to be an ULTRA short price and win for fun, but hey, it's horse racing! As they loaded into the gate check out how the betting was lopsided on California Chrome, obviously #10.......
I was mildly concerned down the backstretch when he was not just wide, but was racing literally out in the middle of the track! On the turn, still very wide he just cruised by and ran away without any urging to the thunderous cheers of his thousands of followers.
Though I didn't make nearly any money, as I've said before, the satisfaction of betting big and having my confidence rewarded was good enough. In the Fair Grounds finale Rose's Asset was the short-priced 4/5 favorite......oh my, SECOND AGAIN - can you believe it? Then came one of the highlights of the day. The late-night feature at Turfway where it WAS freezing AND it was raining! was the Prairie Bayou. After looking it over I thought that defending champion Dac was the likely winner. This time last year he'd come off a good effort in the Grade 3 River City on the turf to win this stakes on their synthetic surface (which plays like turf). He'd earned a 91 in the River City and then run a click faster in winning this. THIS year he also prepped in the River City; again he ran well without winning, BUT he earned a bigger 96 Beyer. Anything close to that and he's your winner. He was a fair 5/2 price but was mid-pack into the far turn and out of the television screen. But then I saw his colors as he was rolling five wide through the turn, picking off horses one at a time. By the furlong marker he'd caught the leader, but that one wouldn't go down easily.....head up and head down to the wire.....looks like a photo finish.......oh so close!
But even the announcer called it for Dac. Then the final odds flashed and he was a HUGE 3/1 - wow. With my triple investment I would collect over $60 on what turned out to be my final winner of the day. IN the seventh at Turfway Contrasting looked solid in this second level sprint with only five runners. But when the gates opened she hopped in the air losing all chance despite being the even money favorite. Rushed to challenge on the turn and faded to fourth. Still, a "WINNING" day as I said at the outset because......(a) after starting out 0-for-8 I finished with TEN wins and despite having TEN seconds, (b) I still cashed on 30.3% of my selections; (c) got to show off my passion to two new race fans; and in spite of the numbers and the long losing skid at the beginning I rallied to come with $20 of making a profit. A great day at the track!
I knew going into to the races today that unlike most days where I have a strong feeling that I have the winner, today I had three runners that were listed as price plays and I was sure they would go off at a good price - which meant their chances of winning was much less. And I had a "BET of the Day" kind of runner. I would have made this a day to go see the races live and bet that horse, but we'd made eye appointments, so I was relegated to watch online. In the 2nd, I backed Norman's Hero who was 6/1 in the program. He owned a 7/4-2-0 record locally and was dropping off of poor efforts, but those both came in stakes. Left the gate at a huge 11-1 and was 3rd heading into the turn. Maybe. No. Stopped badly and faded to be 8th under the wire. In the third race, I passed because the program favorite looked very shaky - he ran fourth and as I predicted, the winner paid a nice price, I just couldn't find the $19 winner, so I'd passed. In the fourth Didyoumeanit was a Blue Chip play for trainer Larry Pilotti who has won with 6-of-14 claiming sprinters coming off a layoff. He was 8/1 in the program and left the gate at 11/1. Right out of the gate he was near the back....never made a move.....dead last. Sigh. Thunder Buddies had been my MTO pick in a Saturday race, but he scratched out to run here in the fifth with Javier Castellano on board. Sent off as the 9/5 favorite he was an even third. In the sixth I thought Global Magician looked best for Jorge Navarro who moved that one up from a photo loss in an $8K 3L spot to this $16K 3L spot, but had too many questions to bet. WON at $11.20 - oh that would have made the day :( The seventh was a real dilemma with not one but TWO Pletcher first time starters in a 2yo MSW sprint. Egyptian Hero was a million dollar sales grad, but was NOT ridden by either of the two Pletcher go-to riders; instead Castellano was on Hedge Fund. And on the rail - not a good draw - was Grand Primpi who had a best-of-95 bullet recently. Couldn't separate them and had nagging doubts, so I passed. Wise move - they ran 4th, 5th, and 6th while the winner paid $24. In the 8th we were on the grass and I went for the BIG longshot in Shea D Girl who looked to be the lone speed at 15/1 in the program. Right to the front and daylight clear into the lane at 6/1....uh oh. No, inhaled by five closers to finish sixth. FINALLY the good news. Todd Pletcher sent out lightly raced Neolithic in the 9th, a nw1x allowance going 8 1/2 furlongs. That alone, and Castellano would make him the pick. But he was coming off a photo loss in the Grade 3 Discovery - that makes him "prime time" - but what caught my eye was Pletcher's quote that this race would determine if he was the kind of horse they'd run in the $12 Million Pegasus World Cup against multiple Grade 1 winners California Chrome and Arrogate. Seriously? If they thing he might be able to complete with those kind, what did they expect against entry level allowance runners? He went right to the front in the two-turn test and ran a swift opening quarter of :23.1, but if you're going to run with the big boys you'll have to run that fast. Then the opening half mile was posted at a wicked :45 and change. WAY too fast, even for graded stakes winner - not good. But as they moved through the turn Neolithic was still under a hand ride and as they sprinted for the wire he opened up at will as MUCH the best. WHOOO HOOOO!
It always leaves me with a good feeling when the BET of the Day wins. Too bad I wasn't on track as I would have bet more - not that I would have won a lot :) In the finale I liked Seuss to upset the turf sprint, but I couldn't bet against the shaky favorite. Won and paid $9.20. Two price plays I had on top BOTH won and the two price plays I DID bet ran poorly. Just not on the right page today other than the BET of the Day.
Thursday December 15
Finally - A BIG Day
The two Saturdays that I've been at Gulfstream have been pretty good handicapping days with me getting my fair share of winners. But the days I've played online, the day-to-day handicapping has been below par. Today I finally had a good day at the races virtually. The day started off with a big bang in the opener where I liked Ascot Girl. Check out my analysis......
She left the gate at a fair 5/2 price. Jockey Edgar Prado had her saving ground down the backside approaching the far turn some four plus off the leaders, but I was concerned because (a) there was a wall of horses and (b) the fractions were very slow which would make rallying to the front difficult even if he could find a seam. As they hit the turn a narrow opening appeared on the rail and Ascot Girl moved forward on the turn and hit the "GO" button as she began to pass horses. As heads turned for home she was fanned some six wide but had momentum. She cleared all the rivals save one who was clear at the furlong pole. At the 16th pole Ascot Girl was nearly on even terms, but each head bob still had her just short of the lead. The wire was coming, one final surge.....PHOTO FINISH! I wasn't sure and I wouldn't have been surprised either way. But in the slow motion replay I was pretty sure that if the finish line was judged where the finish line actually was (see last week's "official" photo loss story), then I was the winner. The numbers came up.......
Whoooo hooooo! The $7.60 payoff meant I'd start off this Thursday with nearly $40 added to the bankroll. NICE! I passed the second where Gelato Girl looked best on paper but was suspect in my opinion. Sent off at a short price she moved up on the turn then hung like yesterday's laundry. Wise to pass the race. The 3rd was a wide open event where I couldn't even find someone to recommend on paper. In the fourth I liked Slava who was 6/1 in the program and I thought might steal it. He was bet down to 2/1 and was cruising on the lead to the turn before fading to 7th. The fifth was a marathon turf event going 9 1/2 furlongs for entry level allowance runners. I liked the lightly raced Patterson Cross for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. When he was bet down from 7/2 in the program to nearly even money I considered upping the bet. I checked the payouts on all the multi-race wagers and he was a heavy favorite in all pools. Upped the ante! He was given an excellent ride as he was patiently handled at the back to the far turn. Room appeared on the rail, but then he was stopped and shuffled back. So Jose Lezcano shifted to the outside, and accelerated to the front and blew by the field to win going away as easily much the best. My second winner!
And with the added investment I upped the return to my bankroll to nearly $25! In the 6th I put Worth Avenue on top after an impressive maiden win at GPW, but couldn't bet him knowing he'd be a short price. On the turn when he was 4th at 4/5 I was thinking how smart I was. But then he duplicated his impressive maiden win by blowing by to win by nearly a pole. Oh well, good bet to not take a chance on a short priced favorite trying winners for the first time. In the 7th it was a starte rallowance for two-year-olds where I thought Insum Money looked best on paper. But the program favorite was just like Worth Avenue. If he ran like that one he'd win....but who could guess, especially with juveniles? I was right in tabbing Insum Money who won as the tepid 5/2 post time favorite. In the 8th I had no clue and passed without a recommendation again. The finale looked to go strictly through Who's Your Drama with Javier Castellano. But his record was sketchy at best - check it out......
But as I watched the races on the live feed he was being absolutely hammered at the windows. First, his recent form was dreadful; second the barn's record of 8-for-95 in 2016....ouch! And third, he'd had Castellano not once, but FOUR times and the result had been three seconds before failing to hit the board. What did the crowd see that I was missing, other than the significant drop down to MC $20K today? Like the fifth I checked all the payouts and Who's Your Drama was the definitive choice in every pool. I thought, sometimes you just have to accept that the crowd knows more than you do and I again upped the bet. Castellano hustled him right out of the gate to the front and deftly slowed the pace down to a pokey :24 and change; :50 and change for the half; and a slow 1:15 to the pace call. When the stalkers and closers accelerated Castellano had tons left in the tank and Who's Your Drama opened up to win under wraps as much, MUCH the best!
My third win on the day! Numbers for this Thursday: 3-for-5 with a profit of over $30. That's what I'm talking about!
Friday Dec. 16
I was hoping to continue to build on yesterday's success with racing on Friday and by and large I was satisfied with the results, though I did not add to the bankroll. Still, I always feel good about my handicapping when I hit 30% or more AND connect on my BEST of the day. Such was the storyline for this day at Gulfstream Park. I have to note that the weather is a big national story and no one could be happier than me about living in Florida! I had six picks on the day as I watched the live stream from Hallandale while handicapping multiple tracks for an all-out assault on the races tomorrow, Sugar Swirl Day at Gulfstream where there are FIVE stakes races, three of them graded! I passed the opener, but my top pick "won" via DQ as the 3/5 favorite. In the second Cotton Princess ran a dismal 6th after pressing the pace for a half mile at 3/1. In the third we were sprinting on the turf and I thought my rider made a clever move saving ground to the stretch and inching up the rail to get to the lead late, only to see the winner blow by down the middle of the track - who was the co-5/2 choice with my pick, Difference Maker, under Julian Leparoux. It was noteworthy in that Leparoux was off to an 0-for-26 start to the meet prior to this win! In the fourth I Want Mo was sent out for his second start by trainer Eddie Plesa who was 29% with 2nd time starters. 'Mo was GP analyst Ron Nicoletti's "best" of the day. He was a prohibitive 4/5 in this 5 1/2 furlong maiden claimer for juveniles, but showed little while running an even fourth behind an 11/1 up set winner. Passed the fifth where my 2nd choice won at 2/1. Passed the sixth where TWO Todd Pletcher colts were beaten in maiden special company - wow, when was the last time THAT happened at Gulfstream! Wise decision to pass Mr. Mark! In the 7th I liked Belle Postiere in a non-winners of two-lifetime claiming event on the turf. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano, it was the connections that led me to put her on top, with just the minimum. But she was taking so much money, bet down to 6/5, that I considered upping the bet. I checked all the multi-race payoffs and not only was she favored, but heavily so. Not only a sure sign of a "good thing," but the crowd rarely is wrong when they are across the board in agreement as to who will win in so many betting pools. I upped the investment! She made a bid to the front turning for home and was clear, then a 7/1 outsider came flying up on the outside and the duel was on. Through the final 16th of a mile it was one head up and one head down. In the slow-motion replay on each bob I was in front UNTIL we hit the final yards and then it was OH-SO-CLOSE.....depends on where the "official finish line" is drawn (remember the story from last week!). The numbers came up.......
WHOOOO HOOOO! And Belle Postiere's odds floated up a click to 7/5 so I cashed for nearly $25 on my first win on the Friday card! As they'd come through the stretch a horse just behind mine had clipped heels with another and tossed jockey Paco Lopez head over heels to the turf, but he got up right away none the worse for wear. I mention this because in the 8th race, which I passed, Lopez was right back in the saddle, AND WON.....and get this, the name of the horse - Summersault! How ironic! The 9th and featured allowance event of the day was my "BEST" of the day. Todd Pletcher was sending out Clipthecouponannie who was unbeaten in three starts, including a victory in a minor stakes in her "most recent." Here was the problem.....all three were in state-bred company and the "most recent" had come last February - oh my! But, Pletcher is a very high percentage play off the long layoff, especially here. When the board opened 'Annie was a miniscule 1/9 on the board. With ten minutes to go she still was the odds-on choice, so again I checked the "Will Pays" on all the multi-race wagers. A definitive choice. Though it's not the smartest thing from a gambling perspective, I was even more confident in my "best bet," so I upped the bet even more. Right to the front, shook off the pace presser before they hit the turn and ran away like the short-priced favorite she was.
Best of all, her odds had floated up to a very generous 1/2 and I was cashing for close to $40! The profit/loss for the day would be determined in the nightcap, a 2-lifetime claiming event on the grass where I liked America's Kitten who was racing in conditioned company for the first time. She was too far back under Luis Saez and while she blew by nine other fillies, the winner had been placed smartly closer to the pace and held sway to the wire - best of the rest second for my pick. But for the day I was 33% and had cashed on my BET of the Day - I'll take it and head out tomorrow for a big day in the warm sunshine of So Florida!
Saturday December 17
Rampart Stakes Day
Click HERE to read the separate journal entry.......
December 17: Rampart Stakes Day Highlights
Sunday December 18
BET of the WEEK Keys Winning Sunday
A year ago, on Opening Day my "best" of the day was a Todd Pletcher first-time starter named Zulu. He looked like he might be something special, so when he came back to face entry level company on a Friday afternoon he was my BET of the Day, and he won for fun again. Despite only two starts he made his next start against the undefeated Mohayman in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. At the time Mohayman was the Kentucky Derby favorite. As they turned for home the two were head and head before the more experienced colt drew away, but Zulu was easily 2nd best. Trainer Todd Pletcher sent him to the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland where he was the 2/1 favorite but trailed throughout so they stopped on him. Today he made his return in the listed Tamarac Stakes going seven furlongs. With most trainers a layoff of April-to-December would be problematic, but for Pletcher it's one of his best angles (36% with layoffs of more than 180 days), and that stat is even stronger here. In fact I LOOK for horses coming off long breaks for him here. He was EASILY the bet of the day and without question the Gulfstream Bet of the Week. As the horses left the paddock and headed to the gate he was a prohibitive 1/9. Zulu broke from post seven under Castellano, in a field of seven, and quickly three others shot out in front of him. Patiently handled Castellano let the one longshot burn himself out and settled into third just off the dueling front runners into the turn. Midway on the turn he eased him into the clear and he caught the leaders without being asked. Heads straightened into the lane and Zulu was clear by daylight as NOW Castellano gave him the green light and he coasted home the easiest of winners. In the post race interview with Gulfstream analyst, the attractive Acacia Courtney, Pletcher remarked that Zulu could come back in the $400K Posiedon Stakes on Pegasus World Cup Day, or in a graded stakes at a one-turn mile. Not only did Zulu score emphatically, justifying his status as my BET of the Week, but the crowd let his odds float all the way up to 1/2....what were they thinking?
The next race where I had a play was in the 7th. Ravelo's Boy was the 2/1 program favorite going a one-turn mile for a claiming tag. He was making his second start off the shelf for trainer Jorge Navarro and that's a big Gulfstream 40% Club angle. He was sent off as a short priced 3/5 favorite and things did NOT go well early as he was squeezed to the back of the field by the runners flanking him coming out of the gate. But he easily moved up to third into the turn and coasted by without ever being asked. He demolished the field without taking a deep breath to give me two straight wins on the Sunday card.
I went for the trifecta in the next race and Starship Thor was a good 5/2 price as he slid up the rail to get to the front, but another closer in this turf sprint was flying in the clear outside and was just up in front of me, 2nd. The finale was my final bet of the day and week, another turf sprint. I really liked Sunrise Kitty who was dropping in class. Came surging outside to get to the lead late, only to have a 90/1 bomber sneak up the rail and nail her on the line....2nd again. So for the day two wins and two seconds from frour selections, and a profitable day. Ironically when I posted my results I noted the following.....
That's right - of the last NINETEEN races I've bet I have finished first or second in 17 of them! Seventeen of nineteen first or second place finishes! WOW. This coming week is Christmas week with live racing on Wed-thru-Fri, and there is talk that we may come on Wednesday.....my oldest son Jeff is bringing his family to So Fla for the week, and we might take his 3yo Cameron out for his first taste of thoroughbred racing! No racing on the weekend, but there's a special card on Monday the 26th which features the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector.....my plans are to be on track for that!
The first full week of racing kicked off today and when I handicapped the ten race card I had five selections I felt provided me with enough of an edge to wager on. I passed the opener and went back and forth about betting the second. This was a mile and a sixteenth maiden claiming event on the turf, and to add to the puzzle there were forecasts for a possibility of rain today. At first glance the fact that Tricketa was trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano would make this a slam dunk. But two things worried me. First, Pletcher is less effective on the inner course than on the main track and secondly, it's been my experience that Pletcher runners who make their So Fla winter debut across town at Gulfstream Park West don't typically run well when they come to the "real" Gulfstream, especially off of a loss. Also, this was Castellano's first mount of the meet as he'd spent the weekend out west (and won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at $13.80 for me!), and he has a new agent this year. BUT, I had gone against a Pletcher runner this past weekend who was coming off a loss at GPW and that runner won. So in the end, especially with the field being less than formidable, I went with Triketa, but was only in for the minimum. Castellano used the rail to his advantage and went immediately to the lead. He was never threatened and drew off with style.
The crowd let him go off at a generous 2/1, considering he was a Pletcher-Castellano runner. And right away I'm off to a winning start to the week! WHOOOO HOOOO! Of the five selections on the day the one I favored most came in the 3rd, another maiden claimer, this one for juveniles sprinting six furlongs on the main track. There Goes Bella figured to be odds on after dueling early in both career starts and in her most recent she held on for a best-of-the-rest second. With Joel Rosario on board from an outside draw I saw him pressing the leaders in the clear and then taking off in the stretch. But when the gates opened Rosario pulled him back two or more lengths off the leaders and as is often the case with horses that like to be up close early, he was not interested in finishing strongly and was an even third as the 8/5 favorite. Passed the fourth and fifth and then discovered my pick in the sixth scratched. In the 7th I liked another Castellano-Pletcher runner, Giant's Voice on the turf in another maiden claimer, this one for juveniles. The outside draw forced him to be wide throughout the race, but still, as heads turned for home Castellano forged to the lead. But the 4/5 choice couldn't hang on and was a close, but weakening third. Passed the 8th and 9th and so the bottom line on the day would come down to the finale. This was yet another maiden claiming event on the turf but my choice was on the inside here. Beneficiary was likely to be overbet I thought, but there was little question that since arriving in So Fla he'd become a different animal than the one that raced this summer at Delaware. He was a good third in his GPW debut then was in front late as the 6/5 favorite only to be nailed on the wire. That was for $35K and today he dropped in for a $20K tag, so he figured to win today I felt. He got a beautiful ride, pressing two longshots while in the clear three wide to the far turn. When asked he glided to the lead and once they straightened away he took off like he was shot out of a cannon to win in an eye-catching performance!
Even though he was 7/5 at post time I'd doubled the bet so I collected nearly $25.....more than enough to put me in the black for the day's handicapping!
Thursday December 8
Today saw my handicapping start off with a big win and then, as the saying goes, "I was robbed!" from having a winning day. After passing the opener I got a big win in the 2nd which was a claiming sprint for two-year-olds. Been Waiting was a Gulfstream Park 40% Club play out of the Jason Servis barn. I thought it was very interesting that in the pre-race analysis by Ron Nicoletti and Gabby Gaudet they showed a stat that Servis was a low percentage trainer with class droppers and that the return on investment was less than $2. But here is why I like the Jim Mazur books - the stats that the on-air handicappers quoted were OVERALL numbers, while Mazur's books focus on strictly the performance at Gulfstream. And over the last two winters, Servis had scored at a big 40% rate with his class droppers. As the horses approached the gate Been Waiting was 8/5 but as they left the gate he was 2/1....and when they hit the far turn he was a big 5/2 price. Went right to the front and in spite of pace pressure, jockey Paco Lopez was riding with confidence. As they hit the top of the stretch he shook the reins and Been Waiting drew off impressively.
With my double investment I cashed for nearly $40. A great way to start the day. The rest of the day was ruined by longshots.....and a questionable call, in my opinion. In the fifth I went with Bahama Kitten who was dropping out of MSW races for trainer Joe Sharp and top North American owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. She was wide throughout and some six wide into the lane, but in deep stretch she surged......PHOTO FINISH! I thought it was really close and could go either way. The slow motion replay seemed to show that my nose was just in front but it was still awfully tough to tell. Then the "official" photo came up. Do you see what my problem is with this "official" photo?
I've had this problem with many tracks previously and I do NOT understand how this happens - though I have to believe there is a legitimate reason. In the top photo don't concentrate on the runners, but look at the arrow - see how the finish line is where the rail is no longer painted red, but becomes silver. But in the "official" photo you'll note that the rail is RED past the "finish line." Now for someone like me, who's pick was closing on the outside it's easy to believe that this "official photo" was taken before they actually hit the finish line. Does not sit well with me. The "winner" was an 11/1 longshot and that set the tone for my final two selections. In the 7th I really liked Shake Things Up who was another GP 40% Club play - this one from the Jorge Navarro barn. Of the EIGHT angles that qualify him for the club, FOUR were in play here. Shake Things Up went to the front but was hounded from the get-go by a 180/1 long shot to the far turn. As they moved through the turn Shake Things Up cleared the field, but her late energy was gone and in deep stretch the late runners blew by - 5th at a very generous 2/1. Cost me $45. Then in the finale I liked Fahan Mura from the Christophe Clement barn. Pressed to the top of the lane, edged to the front, then was bumped not once but twice in upper stretch by a 42/1 longshot who then edged clear. My rider objected and the head-on view showed that she definitely was knocked off stride, but after recovering she was outfinished. It could go either way, and it obviously went against me. Cost me $42. So instead of cashing on three tickets for nearly $125 I had one winner and lost a little on the day. Back at it tomorrow!
Friday December 9
Well, the good news was that I won with two selections (33% for the day); the bad news was that the first winner had the minimum and the second was at 3/5, so I lost a little again from my xpressbet bankroll. The selection in the opener scored decisively at 4/5, but it was a no-bet. In the second we were sprinting six furlongs in a 2-lifetime claimer. I liked Cowtown Spirit who had sprinted on the turf last time out and returned to the dirt for a 28% winning barn. Right to the front but facing pressure, but she shook free of that one and when asked to find another gear she did - and at a BIG $10.20 payoff! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
With the minimum play I cashed for over $25, but I would have had a winning day if I'd doubled the bet. Sigh..... Back-to-back disappointments followed when Amaze, a Todd Pletcher dropper set the pace at 2/1, then weakened in the stretch and Seneca Destiny stopped like he was shot at 2/1 in the 4th for trainer Jorge Navarro. In the fifth I liked Yes It's Factual for Michael Trombetta and Sassy Astray who had Paco Lopez riding. Had it been at Monmouth, the Lopez runner would have been obvious, but I went with the former. Third at 5/2 as she was way too far back and rallied belatedly behind, you guessed it, Sassy Astray who dominated at 8/5. In the 7th Sequoia Princess was a GP 40% Club play for Navarro but ran evenly when fifth as the 8/5 favorite on the turf. My final selection was in the 8th where Mia Torri had been in a Grade 3 photo two back, now in an entry level event for Navarro AND top rider Javier Castellano was up. In retrospect I should have invested more. Might have had I been on track or watching live. She dominated at 3/5 to give me my second win of the day.
Ironically, in the final race of the day I was intrigued by a runner named "Fried Baloney" which was a childhood favorite lunch. I thought I should put $5 to win just as a hunch, but stayed off. Saw the results later.....yes, he won and paid a huge $23.40. WOW. Headed out to the races to meet my buddy Jim Anderson tomorrow where I have not only picks in nine of the eleven races on "Juvenile Showcase Day" locally, but selections from four other tracks including the Fair Grounds where it's "Louisiana Champions Day."
Saturday December 10
Juvenile Showcase Day / La Champions Day
I headed out to Gulfstream today despite that fact that it was a gray, rainy, and windy day and met my buddy Jim Anderson for a day of racing. I turned out to be an "OK" day as I hit with 29+% of my selections and lost just a little, but the wins were scattered and only had two locally. Didn't help that the track conditions were sloppy and the races were off the turf and/or full of scratches. Should have foreseen that it would not be a super day when the opener at Aqueduct saw my choice, the prohibitive 2/5 favorite run fourth of five runners - ouch. Third at Tampa before I lit up the bankroll by tabbing Todd Pletcher's Bode's Dream to win the House Party Stakes - the first of multiple stakes for 2yo runners. With five minutes to post Bode's Dream was the 7/5 favorite, which surprised me because there was a sharp Navarro runner who was 7/5 in the program; coming off a double digit blowout win and had a best-of-75 bullet. As they left the gate the late money came on that one and Bode's Dream drifted up to a huge 5/2 price. She coasted home as tons the best.
I had decided at the last minute to up the bet so I cashed for over $50 on my first winner. I was third at 2/1 in the next at Gulfstream, the Hut Hut and third again at 4/5 with a Pletcher MTO runner in the fourth. Even money at Aqueduct only produced a third and then Javier Castellano chased the front running winner all the way around the track in a maiden special on my pick, Wait who was 7/5 out of the gate. Another off the board finish at Aqueduct before the stakes action started at the Fair Grounds. Sir Genghis was the obvious choice in the Louisiana Champions Starter Stakes, but I thought it was a red flag that this speedy stakes winner was running in a starter event instead of one of the added money races. I went with Watch My Smoke who blew by to score at a big 3/1 and I was due to cash for over $40 on my second win. Right back in the 7th at Gulfstream, the Pulpit Stakes which was off the turf and so Todd Pletcher's MTO runner Tapwrit was the pick . Stalked the leaders 4-wide through the turn and then took off handily.
The 3/2 odds led to $25 in cash. Thought I had a good upset pick in the La Champions Turf, going against multiple turf champion String King was hard to do, in Fort Pulaski. I had read Brian Spencer's picks for the day in New Orleans and he liked a lone speed front runner, which I dismissed because speed rarely holds over the Fair Grounds track. Did today as I was a closing second at 2/1. The "best of the day" at Gulfstream came with Recruiting Ready in the Buffalo Man who had all the numbers and was everyone's choice at 3/5. No better than third as Todd Pletcher's colt wired the field. I had a better idea :( The BET of the Day came in the feature at Aqueduct in the Garland of Roses Stakes. The winner was no secret as Paulassilverlining was exiting six graded stakes efforts in a row, including a sharp third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup to run in this $125K listed event. She stalked the pace to the top of the lane then ran away in hand to provide my fourth winner.
Minutes later I won with my "best" on the Louisiana Champions Day card when Big World dueled the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch to prevail in the Ladies Stakes. Even money odds led to a payoff of just over $40. Thinking I might be on a roll!
It was at this point that Jim left for the day, and I was sad to see him go. He had told me earlier in the day that his brother was ill in Minnesota and so he and his wife Stephanie, who was a good school friend of mine, were moving there by the end of the month. I've so enjoyed many track days with Jim and two out of town adventures. He told me one of the first things he thought of when they decided to move was missing out on our track experiences :( But we agreed that we just needed to work hard to come up with at least one if not two track adventures a year to meet somewhere. Thanks for the good times Jim! We'll see you down the road.
I missed with the 4/5 favorite at Los Alamitos in their 2nd and then my last live race at Gulfstream in the Smooth Air where I again had a better idea, going with Castellano on a Mark Henning colt while Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez buried the field with my second choice, Fact Finding. I headed for home, hoping I would have the same kind of traffic issues I had last week! Nope - smooth sailing! Watched a little TV and then Kim and I headed out to the Panthers game where we won 4-2 over the Vancouver hockey club. We got home and I watched the rest of the races for the day via xpressbet replays. I won the first of them in a Fair Grounds MSW for juvenile fillies when Princess Samurai edged clear in deep stretch. In Tampa DC Nine ran sharply as a first time starter when 2nd at 5/2. In the fourth at Los Alamitos I backed my hottie rider, Chantal Sutherland, but she was too far back on Spicy Blonde (how appropriate!) and she finished fourth at 7/5. I was surprised when Sunbean disappointed, badly (6th), as the 3/2 favorite in the Louisiana Champions Classic. Boooooo. Next up was the "best" of the day at Los Alamitos in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity for juvenile colts. I had told Jim that I thought Mastery, an unbeaten Bob Baffert colt ridden by Mike Smith, was a legitimate Kentucky Derby runner. The only question was him getting a distance of ground today trying two turns for the first time. He pressed the leader to the far turn, then opened up to lead into the long stretch. The closers began to make their late kick, but Mastery had another gear and he cruised home impressively. I also have to say it was nice to hear track announcer Bobby Newman's voice calling the Los Al races. He had been the Calder announcer for years before they closed their doors a few years ago.
That was it for the day as I ran fourth in the La Champs Ladies' Sprint; second at 6/5 in the La Champs Sprint as the 6/5 favorite, just missed behind a 15/1 upset runner. And then looked clear to victory on Bob Baffert's American Gal as the 4/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet, only to see her caught in deep stretch, second again. Below is the highlight video for the day, which has it's own story. I debated for several days about doing a video. My thinking was it takes quite a bit of time and NO ONE watches them typically, except me. And even I only watch them for a month or so and then they become just part of my files. I went back and forth and finally Friday I decided I would film. But Saturday morning I changed my mind and didn't even take my camera that I use for videos (because of the zoom). But once the races started I re-changed my mind and decided I'd film just the GP races and the highlight scores. Go figure :)
December 10 Highlights
Sunday December 11
After a pretty average week of handicapping I was hopeful that I'd have at least a "good" day on Sunday. I went online around noon and made my wagers for the day as the races were still on the turf. But about 2 pm as I watched the Miami Dolphins telecast it started pouring down rain so I went back online and made a couple of changes. Kim and I went out to dinner and when we came home I watched my five replays. More disappointment. :( Fourth at 9/5 in the opener; speed for a half then stopped badly (8th) in the 2nd. Second as the 6/5 favorite when too far back in the third. And in the fourth I had Todd Pletcher's JS Bach who was unbeaten over the GP surface. He's a front runner and he lost all chance when an outside runner came out of the gate and made a sharp left turn wiping out the entire inside of the field. That one was declared a "non-starter" and my chances were dashed. My dirt pick for the 8th - another Pletcher runner - scratched. Left me with one final pick in the finale, a five furlong dash where I liked Slot Player regardless of the surface. Right to the front and long gone as the even money choice on the board.
Ironically, the results today were identical to last Sunday where my lone winner was the only runner I had the minimum investment on. Sigh...... Back at it for the Wednesday card, and I'm hopeful that Thursday I can make my first week-day appearance on track. And Saturday is the first graded stakes events of the winter meeting. LOTS of big races ahead, keep the faith my friends, big days are ahead!
