Wednesday Dec. 14
Mixed Reviews To Start The Week
I knew going into to the races today that unlike most days where I have a strong feeling that I have the winner, today I had three runners that were listed as price plays and I was sure they would go off at a good price - which meant their chances of winning was much less. And I had a "BET of the Day" kind of runner. I would have made this a day to go see the races live and bet that horse, but we'd made eye appointments, so I was relegated to watch online. In the 2nd, I backed Norman's Hero who was 6/1 in the program. He owned a 7/4-2-0 record locally and was dropping off of poor efforts, but those both came in stakes. Left the gate at a huge 11-1 and was 3rd heading into the turn. Maybe. No. Stopped badly and faded to be 8th under the wire. In the third race, I passed because the program favorite looked very shaky - he ran fourth and as I predicted, the winner paid a nice price, I just couldn't find the $19 winner, so I'd passed. In the fourth Didyoumeanit was a Blue Chip play for trainer Larry Pilotti who has won with 6-of-14 claiming sprinters coming off a layoff. He was 8/1 in the program and left the gate at 11/1. Right out of the gate he was near the back....never made a move.....dead last. Sigh. Thunder Buddies had been my MTO pick in a Saturday race, but he scratched out to run here in the fifth with Javier Castellano on board. Sent off as the 9/5 favorite he was an even third. In the sixth I thought Global Magician looked best for Jorge Navarro who moved that one up from a photo loss in an $8K 3L spot to this $16K 3L spot, but had too many questions to bet. WON at $11.20 - oh that would have made the day :( The seventh was a real dilemma with not one but TWO Pletcher first time starters in a 2yo MSW sprint. Egyptian Hero was a million dollar sales grad, but was NOT ridden by either of the two Pletcher go-to riders; instead Castellano was on Hedge Fund. And on the rail - not a good draw - was Grand Primpi who had a best-of-95 bullet recently. Couldn't separate them and had nagging doubts, so I passed. Wise move - they ran 4th, 5th, and 6th while the winner paid $24. In the 8th we were on the grass and I went for the BIG longshot in Shea D Girl who looked to be the lone speed at 15/1 in the program. Right to the front and daylight clear into the lane at 6/1....uh oh. No, inhaled by five closers to finish sixth. FINALLY the good news. Todd Pletcher sent out lightly raced Neolithic in the 9th, a nw1x allowance going 8 1/2 furlongs. That alone, and Castellano would make him the pick. But he was coming off a photo loss in the Grade 3 Discovery - that makes him "prime time" - but what caught my eye was Pletcher's quote that this race would determine if he was the kind of horse they'd run in the $12 Million Pegasus World Cup against multiple Grade 1 winners California Chrome and Arrogate. Seriously? If they thing he might be able to complete with those kind, what did they expect against entry level allowance runners? He went right to the front in the two-turn test and ran a swift opening quarter of :23.1, but if you're going to run with the big boys you'll have to run that fast. Then the opening half mile was posted at a wicked :45 and change. WAY too fast, even for graded stakes winner - not good. But as they moved through the turn Neolithic was still under a hand ride and as they sprinted for the wire he opened up at will as MUCH the best. WHOOO HOOOO!
It always leaves me with a good feeling when the BET of the Day wins. Too bad I wasn't on track as I would have bet more - not that I would have won a lot :) In the finale I liked Seuss to upset the turf sprint, but I couldn't bet against the shaky favorite. Won and paid $9.20. Two price plays I had on top BOTH won and the two price plays I DID bet ran poorly. Just not on the right page today other than the BET of the Day.
She left the gate at a fair 5/2 price. Jockey Edgar Prado had her saving ground down the backside approaching the far turn some four plus off the leaders, but I was concerned because (a) there was a wall of horses and (b) the fractions were very slow which would make rallying to the front difficult even if he could find a seam. As they hit the turn a narrow opening appeared on the rail and Ascot Girl moved forward on the turn and hit the "GO" button as she began to pass horses. As heads turned for home she was fanned some six wide but had momentum. She cleared all the rivals save one who was clear at the furlong pole. At the 16th pole Ascot Girl was nearly on even terms, but each head bob still had her just short of the lead. The wire was coming, one final surge.....PHOTO FINISH! I wasn't sure and I wouldn't have been surprised either way. But in the slow motion replay I was pretty sure that if the finish line was judged where the finish line actually was (see last week's "official" photo loss story), then I was the winner. The numbers came up.......
Whoooo hooooo! The $7.60 payoff meant I'd start off this Thursday with nearly $40 added to the bankroll. NICE! I passed the second where Gelato Girl looked best on paper but was suspect in my opinion. Sent off at a short price she moved up on the turn then hung like yesterday's laundry. Wise to pass the race. The 3rd was a wide open event where I couldn't even find someone to recommend on paper. In the fourth I liked Slava who was 6/1 in the program and I thought might steal it. He was bet down to 2/1 and was cruising on the lead to the turn before fading to 7th. The fifth was a marathon turf event going 9 1/2 furlongs for entry level allowance runners. I liked the lightly raced Patterson Cross for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. When he was bet down from 7/2 in the program to nearly even money I considered upping the bet. I checked the payouts on all the multi-race wagers and he was a heavy favorite in all pools. Upped the ante! He was given an excellent ride as he was patiently handled at the back to the far turn. Room appeared on the rail, but then he was stopped and shuffled back. So Jose Lezcano shifted to the outside, and accelerated to the front and blew by the field to win going away as easily much the best. My second winner!
And with the added investment I upped the return to my bankroll to nearly $25! In the 6th I put Worth Avenue on top after an impressive maiden win at GPW, but couldn't bet him knowing he'd be a short price. On the turn when he was 4th at 4/5 I was thinking how smart I was. But then he duplicated his impressive maiden win by blowing by to win by nearly a pole. Oh well, good bet to not take a chance on a short priced favorite trying winners for the first time. In the 7th it was a starte rallowance for two-year-olds where I thought Insum Money looked best on paper. But the program favorite was just like Worth Avenue. If he ran like that one he'd win....but who could guess, especially with juveniles? I was right in tabbing Insum Money who won as the tepid 5/2 post time favorite. In the 8th I had no clue and passed without a recommendation again. The finale looked to go strictly through Who's Your Drama with Javier Castellano. But his record was sketchy at best - check it out......
But as I watched the races on the live feed he was being absolutely hammered at the windows. First, his recent form was dreadful; second the barn's record of 8-for-95 in 2016....ouch! And third, he'd had Castellano not once, but FOUR times and the result had been three seconds before failing to hit the board. What did the crowd see that I was missing, other than the significant drop down to MC $20K today? Like the fifth I checked all the payouts and Who's Your Drama was the definitive choice in every pool. I thought, sometimes you just have to accept that the crowd knows more than you do and I again upped the bet. Castellano hustled him right out of the gate to the front and deftly slowed the pace down to a pokey :24 and change; :50 and change for the half; and a slow 1:15 to the pace call. When the stalkers and closers accelerated Castellano had tons left in the tank and Who's Your Drama opened up to win under wraps as much, MUCH the best!
My third win on the day! Numbers for this Thursday: 3-for-5 with a profit of over $30. That's what I'm talking about!
WHOOOO HOOOO! And Belle Postiere's odds floated up a click to 7/5 so I cashed for nearly $25 on my first win on the Friday card! As they'd come through the stretch a horse just behind mine had clipped heels with another and tossed jockey Paco Lopez head over heels to the turf, but he got up right away none the worse for wear. I mention this because in the 8th race, which I passed, Lopez was right back in the saddle, AND WON.....and get this, the name of the horse - Summersault! How ironic! The 9th and featured allowance event of the day was my "BEST" of the day. Todd Pletcher was sending out Clipthecouponannie who was unbeaten in three starts, including a victory in a minor stakes in her "most recent." Here was the problem.....all three were in state-bred company and the "most recent" had come last February - oh my! But, Pletcher is a very high percentage play off the long layoff, especially here. When the board opened 'Annie was a miniscule 1/9 on the board. With ten minutes to go she still was the odds-on choice, so again I checked the "Will Pays" on all the multi-race wagers. A definitive choice. Though it's not the smartest thing from a gambling perspective, I was even more confident in my "best bet," so I upped the bet even more. Right to the front, shook off the pace presser before they hit the turn and ran away like the short-priced favorite she was.
Best of all, her odds had floated up to a very generous 1/2 and I was cashing for close to $40! The profit/loss for the day would be determined in the nightcap, a 2-lifetime claiming event on the grass where I liked America's Kitten who was racing in conditioned company for the first time. She was too far back under Luis Saez and while she blew by nine other fillies, the winner had been placed smartly closer to the pace and held sway to the wire - best of the rest second for my pick. But for the day I was 33% and had cashed on my BET of the Day - I'll take it and head out tomorrow for a big day in the warm sunshine of So Florida!
Click HERE to read the separate journal entry.......
A year ago, on Opening Day my "best" of the day was a Todd Pletcher first-time starter named Zulu. He looked like he might be something special, so when he came back to face entry level company on a Friday afternoon he was my BET of the Day, and he won for fun again. Despite only two starts he made his next start against the undefeated Mohayman in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. At the time Mohayman was the Kentucky Derby favorite. As they turned for home the two were head and head before the more experienced colt drew away, but Zulu was easily 2nd best. Trainer Todd Pletcher sent him to the Grade 1 Bluegrass at Keeneland where he was the 2/1 favorite but trailed throughout so they stopped on him. Today he made his return in the listed Tamarac Stakes going seven furlongs. With most trainers a layoff of April-to-December would be problematic, but for Pletcher it's one of his best angles (36% with layoffs of more than 180 days), and that stat is even stronger here. In fact I LOOK for horses coming off long breaks for him here. He was EASILY the bet of the day and without question the Gulfstream Bet of the Week. As the horses left the paddock and headed to the gate he was a prohibitive 1/9. Zulu broke from post seven under Castellano, in a field of seven, and quickly three others shot out in front of him. Patiently handled Castellano let the one longshot burn himself out and settled into third just off the dueling front runners into the turn. Midway on the turn he eased him into the clear and he caught the leaders without being asked. Heads straightened into the lane and Zulu was clear by daylight as NOW Castellano gave him the green light and he coasted home the easiest of winners. In the post race interview with Gulfstream analyst, the attractive Acacia Courtney, Pletcher remarked that Zulu could come back in the $400K Posiedon Stakes on Pegasus World Cup Day, or in a graded stakes at a one-turn mile. Not only did Zulu score emphatically, justifying his status as my BET of the Week, but the crowd let his odds float all the way up to 1/2....what were they thinking?
The next race where I had a play was in the 7th. Ravelo's Boy was the 2/1 program favorite going a one-turn mile for a claiming tag. He was making his second start off the shelf for trainer Jorge Navarro and that's a big Gulfstream 40% Club angle. He was sent off as a short priced 3/5 favorite and things did NOT go well early as he was squeezed to the back of the field by the runners flanking him coming out of the gate. But he easily moved up to third into the turn and coasted by without ever being asked. He demolished the field without taking a deep breath to give me two straight wins on the Sunday card.
I went for the trifecta in the next race and Starship Thor was a good 5/2 price as he slid up the rail to get to the front, but another closer in this turf sprint was flying in the clear outside and was just up in front of me, 2nd. The finale was my final bet of the day and week, another turf sprint. I really liked Sunrise Kitty who was dropping in class. Came surging outside to get to the lead late, only to have a 90/1 bomber sneak up the rail and nail her on the line....2nd again. So for the day two wins and two seconds from frour selections, and a profitable day. Ironically when I posted my results I noted the following.....
That's right - of the last NINETEEN races I've bet I have finished first or second in 17 of them! Seventeen of nineteen first or second place finishes! WOW. This coming week is Christmas week with live racing on Wed-thru-Fri, and there is talk that we may come on Wednesday.....my oldest son Jeff is bringing his family to So Fla for the week, and we might take his 3yo Cameron out for his first taste of thoroughbred racing! No racing on the weekend, but there's a special card on Monday the 26th which features the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector.....my plans are to be on track for that!
Thursday December 15
Finally - A BIG Day
The two Saturdays that I've been at Gulfstream have been pretty good handicapping days with me getting my fair share of winners. But the days I've played online, the day-to-day handicapping has been below par. Today I finally had a good day at the races virtually. The day started off with a big bang in the opener where I liked Ascot Girl. Check out my analysis...... She left the gate at a fair 5/2 price. Jockey Edgar Prado had her saving ground down the backside approaching the far turn some four plus off the leaders, but I was concerned because (a) there was a wall of horses and (b) the fractions were very slow which would make rallying to the front difficult even if he could find a seam. As they hit the turn a narrow opening appeared on the rail and Ascot Girl moved forward on the turn and hit the "GO" button as she began to pass horses. As heads turned for home she was fanned some six wide but had momentum. She cleared all the rivals save one who was clear at the furlong pole. At the 16th pole Ascot Girl was nearly on even terms, but each head bob still had her just short of the lead. The wire was coming, one final surge.....PHOTO FINISH! I wasn't sure and I wouldn't have been surprised either way. But in the slow motion replay I was pretty sure that if the finish line was judged where the finish line actually was (see last week's "official" photo loss story), then I was the winner. The numbers came up.......
Whoooo hooooo! The $7.60 payoff meant I'd start off this Thursday with nearly $40 added to the bankroll. NICE! I passed the second where Gelato Girl looked best on paper but was suspect in my opinion. Sent off at a short price she moved up on the turn then hung like yesterday's laundry. Wise to pass the race. The 3rd was a wide open event where I couldn't even find someone to recommend on paper. In the fourth I liked Slava who was 6/1 in the program and I thought might steal it. He was bet down to 2/1 and was cruising on the lead to the turn before fading to 7th. The fifth was a marathon turf event going 9 1/2 furlongs for entry level allowance runners. I liked the lightly raced Patterson Cross for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. When he was bet down from 7/2 in the program to nearly even money I considered upping the bet. I checked the payouts on all the multi-race wagers and he was a heavy favorite in all pools. Upped the ante! He was given an excellent ride as he was patiently handled at the back to the far turn. Room appeared on the rail, but then he was stopped and shuffled back. So Jose Lezcano shifted to the outside, and accelerated to the front and blew by the field to win going away as easily much the best. My second winner!
And with the added investment I upped the return to my bankroll to nearly $25! In the 6th I put Worth Avenue on top after an impressive maiden win at GPW, but couldn't bet him knowing he'd be a short price. On the turn when he was 4th at 4/5 I was thinking how smart I was. But then he duplicated his impressive maiden win by blowing by to win by nearly a pole. Oh well, good bet to not take a chance on a short priced favorite trying winners for the first time. In the 7th it was a starte rallowance for two-year-olds where I thought Insum Money looked best on paper. But the program favorite was just like Worth Avenue. If he ran like that one he'd win....but who could guess, especially with juveniles? I was right in tabbing Insum Money who won as the tepid 5/2 post time favorite. In the 8th I had no clue and passed without a recommendation again. The finale looked to go strictly through Who's Your Drama with Javier Castellano. But his record was sketchy at best - check it out......
But as I watched the races on the live feed he was being absolutely hammered at the windows. First, his recent form was dreadful; second the barn's record of 8-for-95 in 2016....ouch! And third, he'd had Castellano not once, but FOUR times and the result had been three seconds before failing to hit the board. What did the crowd see that I was missing, other than the significant drop down to MC $20K today? Like the fifth I checked all the payouts and Who's Your Drama was the definitive choice in every pool. I thought, sometimes you just have to accept that the crowd knows more than you do and I again upped the bet. Castellano hustled him right out of the gate to the front and deftly slowed the pace down to a pokey :24 and change; :50 and change for the half; and a slow 1:15 to the pace call. When the stalkers and closers accelerated Castellano had tons left in the tank and Who's Your Drama opened up to win under wraps as much, MUCH the best!
My third win on the day! Numbers for this Thursday: 3-for-5 with a profit of over $30. That's what I'm talking about!
Friday Dec. 16
I was hoping to continue to build on yesterday's success with racing on Friday and by and large I was satisfied with the results, though I did not add to the bankroll. Still, I always feel good about my handicapping when I hit 30% or more AND connect on my BEST of the day. Such was the storyline for this day at Gulfstream Park. I have to note that the weather is a big national story and no one could be happier than me about living in Florida! I had six picks on the day as I watched the live stream from Hallandale while handicapping multiple tracks for an all-out assault on the races tomorrow, Sugar Swirl Day at Gulfstream where there are FIVE stakes races, three of them graded! I passed the opener, but my top pick "won" via DQ as the 3/5 favorite. In the second Cotton Princess ran a dismal 6th after pressing the pace for a half mile at 3/1. In the third we were sprinting on the turf and I thought my rider made a clever move saving ground to the stretch and inching up the rail to get to the lead late, only to see the winner blow by down the middle of the track - who was the co-5/2 choice with my pick, Difference Maker, under Julian Leparoux. It was noteworthy in that Leparoux was off to an 0-for-26 start to the meet prior to this win! In the fourth I Want Mo was sent out for his second start by trainer Eddie Plesa who was 29% with 2nd time starters. 'Mo was GP analyst Ron Nicoletti's "best" of the day. He was a prohibitive 4/5 in this 5 1/2 furlong maiden claimer for juveniles, but showed little while running an even fourth behind an 11/1 up set winner. Passed the fifth where my 2nd choice won at 2/1. Passed the sixth where TWO Todd Pletcher colts were beaten in maiden special company - wow, when was the last time THAT happened at Gulfstream! Wise decision to pass Mr. Mark! In the 7th I liked Belle Postiere in a non-winners of two-lifetime claiming event on the turf. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano, it was the connections that led me to put her on top, with just the minimum. But she was taking so much money, bet down to 6/5, that I considered upping the bet. I checked all the multi-race payoffs and not only was she favored, but heavily so. Not only a sure sign of a "good thing," but the crowd rarely is wrong when they are across the board in agreement as to who will win in so many betting pools. I upped the investment! She made a bid to the front turning for home and was clear, then a 7/1 outsider came flying up on the outside and the duel was on. Through the final 16th of a mile it was one head up and one head down. In the slow-motion replay on each bob I was in front UNTIL we hit the final yards and then it was OH-SO-CLOSE.....depends on where the "official finish line" is drawn (remember the story from last week!). The numbers came up.......WHOOOO HOOOO! And Belle Postiere's odds floated up a click to 7/5 so I cashed for nearly $25 on my first win on the Friday card! As they'd come through the stretch a horse just behind mine had clipped heels with another and tossed jockey Paco Lopez head over heels to the turf, but he got up right away none the worse for wear. I mention this because in the 8th race, which I passed, Lopez was right back in the saddle, AND WON.....and get this, the name of the horse - Summersault! How ironic! The 9th and featured allowance event of the day was my "BEST" of the day. Todd Pletcher was sending out Clipthecouponannie who was unbeaten in three starts, including a victory in a minor stakes in her "most recent." Here was the problem.....all three were in state-bred company and the "most recent" had come last February - oh my! But, Pletcher is a very high percentage play off the long layoff, especially here. When the board opened 'Annie was a miniscule 1/9 on the board. With ten minutes to go she still was the odds-on choice, so again I checked the "Will Pays" on all the multi-race wagers. A definitive choice. Though it's not the smartest thing from a gambling perspective, I was even more confident in my "best bet," so I upped the bet even more. Right to the front, shook off the pace presser before they hit the turn and ran away like the short-priced favorite she was.
Best of all, her odds had floated up to a very generous 1/2 and I was cashing for close to $40! The profit/loss for the day would be determined in the nightcap, a 2-lifetime claiming event on the grass where I liked America's Kitten who was racing in conditioned company for the first time. She was too far back under Luis Saez and while she blew by nine other fillies, the winner had been placed smartly closer to the pace and held sway to the wire - best of the rest second for my pick. But for the day I was 33% and had cashed on my BET of the Day - I'll take it and head out tomorrow for a big day in the warm sunshine of So Florida!
Saturday December 17
Rampart Stakes Day
December 17: Rampart Stakes Day Highlights
Sunday December 18
BET of the WEEK Keys Winning Sunday
The next race where I had a play was in the 7th. Ravelo's Boy was the 2/1 program favorite going a one-turn mile for a claiming tag. He was making his second start off the shelf for trainer Jorge Navarro and that's a big Gulfstream 40% Club angle. He was sent off as a short priced 3/5 favorite and things did NOT go well early as he was squeezed to the back of the field by the runners flanking him coming out of the gate. But he easily moved up to third into the turn and coasted by without ever being asked. He demolished the field without taking a deep breath to give me two straight wins on the Sunday card.
I went for the trifecta in the next race and Starship Thor was a good 5/2 price as he slid up the rail to get to the front, but another closer in this turf sprint was flying in the clear outside and was just up in front of me, 2nd. The finale was my final bet of the day and week, another turf sprint. I really liked Sunrise Kitty who was dropping in class. Came surging outside to get to the lead late, only to have a 90/1 bomber sneak up the rail and nail her on the line....2nd again. So for the day two wins and two seconds from frour selections, and a profitable day. Ironically when I posted my results I noted the following.....
That's right - of the last NINETEEN races I've bet I have finished first or second in 17 of them! Seventeen of nineteen first or second place finishes! WOW. This coming week is Christmas week with live racing on Wed-thru-Fri, and there is talk that we may come on Wednesday.....my oldest son Jeff is bringing his family to So Fla for the week, and we might take his 3yo Cameron out for his first taste of thoroughbred racing! No racing on the weekend, but there's a special card on Monday the 26th which features the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector.....my plans are to be on track for that!
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