Wednesday December 7
The first full week of racing kicked off today and when I handicapped the ten race card I had five selections I felt provided me with enough of an edge to wager on. I passed the opener and went back and forth about betting the second. This was a mile and a sixteenth maiden claiming event on the turf, and to add to the puzzle there were forecasts for a possibility of rain today. At first glance the fact that Tricketa was trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano would make this a slam dunk. But two things worried me. First, Pletcher is less effective on the inner course than on the main track and secondly, it's been my experience that Pletcher runners who make their So Fla winter debut across town at Gulfstream Park West don't typically run well when they come to the "real" Gulfstream, especially off of a loss. Also, this was Castellano's first mount of the meet as he'd spent the weekend out west (and won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at $13.80 for me!), and he has a new agent this year. BUT, I had gone against a Pletcher runner this past weekend who was coming off a loss at GPW and that runner won. So in the end, especially with the field being less than formidable, I went with Triketa, but was only in for the minimum. Castellano used the rail to his advantage and went immediately to the lead. He was never threatened and drew off with style.
The crowd let him go off at a generous 2/1, considering he was a Pletcher-Castellano runner. And right away I'm off to a winning start to the week! WHOOOO HOOOO! Of the five selections on the day the one I favored most came in the 3rd, another maiden claimer, this one for juveniles sprinting six furlongs on the main track. There Goes Bella figured to be odds on after dueling early in both career starts and in her most recent she held on for a best-of-the-rest second. With Joel Rosario on board from an outside draw I saw him pressing the leaders in the clear and then taking off in the stretch. But when the gates opened Rosario pulled him back two or more lengths off the leaders and as is often the case with horses that like to be up close early, he was not interested in finishing strongly and was an even third as the 8/5 favorite. Passed the fourth and fifth and then discovered my pick in the sixth scratched. In the 7th I liked another Castellano-Pletcher runner, Giant's Voice on the turf in another maiden claimer, this one for juveniles. The outside draw forced him to be wide throughout the race, but still, as heads turned for home Castellano forged to the lead. But the 4/5 choice couldn't hang on and was a close, but weakening third. Passed the 8th and 9th and so the bottom line on the day would come down to the finale. This was yet another maiden claiming event on the turf but my choice was on the inside here. Beneficiary was likely to be overbet I thought, but there was little question that since arriving in So Fla he'd become a different animal than the one that raced this summer at Delaware. He was a good third in his GPW debut then was in front late as the 6/5 favorite only to be nailed on the wire. That was for $35K and today he dropped in for a $20K tag, so he figured to win today I felt. He got a beautiful ride, pressing two longshots while in the clear three wide to the far turn. When asked he glided to the lead and once they straightened away he took off like he was shot out of a cannon to win in an eye-catching performance!
Even though he was 7/5 at post time I'd doubled the bet so I collected nearly $25.....more than enough to put me in the black for the day's handicapping!
With my double investment I cashed for nearly $40. A great way to start the day. The rest of the day was ruined by longshots.....and a questionable call, in my opinion. In the fifth I went with Bahama Kitten who was dropping out of MSW races for trainer Joe Sharp and top North American owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. She was wide throughout and some six wide into the lane, but in deep stretch she surged......PHOTO FINISH! I thought it was really close and could go either way. The slow motion replay seemed to show that my nose was just in front but it was still awfully tough to tell. Then the "official" photo came up. Do you see what my problem is with this "official" photo?
I've had this problem with many tracks previously and I do NOT understand how this happens - though I have to believe there is a legitimate reason. In the top photo don't concentrate on the runners, but look at the arrow - see how the finish line is where the rail is no longer painted red, but becomes silver. But in the "official" photo you'll note that the rail is RED past the "finish line." Now for someone like me, who's pick was closing on the outside it's easy to believe that this "official photo" was taken before they actually hit the finish line. Does not sit well with me. The "winner" was an 11/1 longshot and that set the tone for my final two selections. In the 7th I really liked Shake Things Up who was another GP 40% Club play - this one from the Jorge Navarro barn. Of the EIGHT angles that qualify him for the club, FOUR were in play here. Shake Things Up went to the front but was hounded from the get-go by a 180/1 long shot to the far turn. As they moved through the turn Shake Things Up cleared the field, but her late energy was gone and in deep stretch the late runners blew by - 5th at a very generous 2/1. Cost me $45. Then in the finale I liked Fahan Mura from the Christophe Clement barn. Pressed to the top of the lane, edged to the front, then was bumped not once but twice in upper stretch by a 42/1 longshot who then edged clear. My rider objected and the head-on view showed that she definitely was knocked off stride, but after recovering she was outfinished. It could go either way, and it obviously went against me. Cost me $42. So instead of cashing on three tickets for nearly $125 I had one winner and lost a little on the day. Back at it tomorrow!
With the minimum play I cashed for over $25, but I would have had a winning day if I'd doubled the bet. Sigh..... Back-to-back disappointments followed when Amaze, a Todd Pletcher dropper set the pace at 2/1, then weakened in the stretch and Seneca Destiny stopped like he was shot at 2/1 in the 4th for trainer Jorge Navarro. In the fifth I liked Yes It's Factual for Michael Trombetta and Sassy Astray who had Paco Lopez riding. Had it been at Monmouth, the Lopez runner would have been obvious, but I went with the former. Third at 5/2 as she was way too far back and rallied belatedly behind, you guessed it, Sassy Astray who dominated at 8/5. In the 7th Sequoia Princess was a GP 40% Club play for Navarro but ran evenly when fifth as the 8/5 favorite on the turf. My final selection was in the 8th where Mia Torri had been in a Grade 3 photo two back, now in an entry level event for Navarro AND top rider Javier Castellano was up. In retrospect I should have invested more. Might have had I been on track or watching live. She dominated at 3/5 to give me my second win of the day.
Ironically, in the final race of the day I was intrigued by a runner named "Fried Baloney" which was a childhood favorite lunch. I thought I should put $5 to win just as a hunch, but stayed off. Saw the results later.....yes, he won and paid a huge $23.40. WOW. Headed out to the races to meet my buddy Jim Anderson tomorrow where I have not only picks in nine of the eleven races on "Juvenile Showcase Day" locally, but selections from four other tracks including the Fair Grounds where it's "Louisiana Champions Day."
I had decided at the last minute to up the bet so I cashed for over $50 on my first winner. I was third at 2/1 in the next at Gulfstream, the Hut Hut and third again at 4/5 with a Pletcher MTO runner in the fourth. Even money at Aqueduct only produced a third and then Javier Castellano chased the front running winner all the way around the track in a maiden special on my pick, Wait who was 7/5 out of the gate. Another off the board finish at Aqueduct before the stakes action started at the Fair Grounds. Sir Genghis was the obvious choice in the Louisiana Champions Starter Stakes, but I thought it was a red flag that this speedy stakes winner was running in a starter event instead of one of the added money races. I went with Watch My Smoke who blew by to score at a big 3/1 and I was due to cash for over $40 on my second win. Right back in the 7th at Gulfstream, the Pulpit Stakes which was off the turf and so Todd Pletcher's MTO runner Tapwrit was the pick . Stalked the leaders 4-wide through the turn and then took off handily.
The 3/2 odds led to $25 in cash. Thought I had a good upset pick in the La Champions Turf, going against multiple turf champion String King was hard to do, in Fort Pulaski. I had read Brian Spencer's picks for the day in New Orleans and he liked a lone speed front runner, which I dismissed because speed rarely holds over the Fair Grounds track. Did today as I was a closing second at 2/1. The "best of the day" at Gulfstream came with Recruiting Ready in the Buffalo Man who had all the numbers and was everyone's choice at 3/5. No better than third as Todd Pletcher's colt wired the field. I had a better idea :( The BET of the Day came in the feature at Aqueduct in the Garland of Roses Stakes. The winner was no secret as Paulassilverlining was exiting six graded stakes efforts in a row, including a sharp third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup to run in this $125K listed event. She stalked the pace to the top of the lane then ran away in hand to provide my fourth winner.
Minutes later I won with my "best" on the Louisiana Champions Day card when Big World dueled the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch to prevail in the Ladies Stakes. Even money odds led to a payoff of just over $40. Thinking I might be on a roll!
It was at this point that Jim left for the day, and I was sad to see him go. He had told me earlier in the day that his brother was ill in Minnesota and so he and his wife Stephanie, who was a good school friend of mine, were moving there by the end of the month. I've so enjoyed many track days with Jim and two out of town adventures. He told me one of the first things he thought of when they decided to move was missing out on our track experiences :( But we agreed that we just needed to work hard to come up with at least one if not two track adventures a year to meet somewhere. Thanks for the good times Jim! We'll see you down the road.
I missed with the 4/5 favorite at Los Alamitos in their 2nd and then my last live race at Gulfstream in the Smooth Air where I again had a better idea, going with Castellano on a Mark Henning colt while Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez buried the field with my second choice, Fact Finding. I headed for home, hoping I would have the same kind of traffic issues I had last week! Nope - smooth sailing! Watched a little TV and then Kim and I headed out to the Panthers game where we won 4-2 over the Vancouver hockey club. We got home and I watched the rest of the races for the day via xpressbet replays. I won the first of them in a Fair Grounds MSW for juvenile fillies when Princess Samurai edged clear in deep stretch. In Tampa DC Nine ran sharply as a first time starter when 2nd at 5/2. In the fourth at Los Alamitos I backed my hottie rider, Chantal Sutherland, but she was too far back on Spicy Blonde (how appropriate!) and she finished fourth at 7/5. I was surprised when Sunbean disappointed, badly (6th), as the 3/2 favorite in the Louisiana Champions Classic. Boooooo. Next up was the "best" of the day at Los Alamitos in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity for juvenile colts. I had told Jim that I thought Mastery, an unbeaten Bob Baffert colt ridden by Mike Smith, was a legitimate Kentucky Derby runner. The only question was him getting a distance of ground today trying two turns for the first time. He pressed the leader to the far turn, then opened up to lead into the long stretch. The closers began to make their late kick, but Mastery had another gear and he cruised home impressively. I also have to say it was nice to hear track announcer Bobby Newman's voice calling the Los Al races. He had been the Calder announcer for years before they closed their doors a few years ago.
That was it for the day as I ran fourth in the La Champs Ladies' Sprint; second at 6/5 in the La Champs Sprint as the 6/5 favorite, just missed behind a 15/1 upset runner. And then looked clear to victory on Bob Baffert's American Gal as the 4/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet, only to see her caught in deep stretch, second again. Below is the highlight video for the day, which has it's own story. I debated for several days about doing a video. My thinking was it takes quite a bit of time and NO ONE watches them typically, except me. And even I only watch them for a month or so and then they become just part of my files. I went back and forth and finally Friday I decided I would film. But Saturday morning I changed my mind and didn't even take my camera that I use for videos (because of the zoom). But once the races started I re-changed my mind and decided I'd film just the GP races and the highlight scores. Go figure :)
Ironically, the results today were identical to last Sunday where my lone winner was the only runner I had the minimum investment on. Sigh...... Back at it for the Wednesday card, and I'm hopeful that Thursday I can make my first week-day appearance on track. And Saturday is the first graded stakes events of the winter meeting. LOTS of big races ahead, keep the faith my friends, big days are ahead!
Thursday December 8
Today saw my handicapping start off with a big win and then, as the saying goes, "I was robbed!" from having a winning day. After passing the opener I got a big win in the 2nd which was a claiming sprint for two-year-olds. Been Waiting was a Gulfstream Park 40% Club play out of the Jason Servis barn. I thought it was very interesting that in the pre-race analysis by Ron Nicoletti and Gabby Gaudet they showed a stat that Servis was a low percentage trainer with class droppers and that the return on investment was less than $2. But here is why I like the Jim Mazur books - the stats that the on-air handicappers quoted were OVERALL numbers, while Mazur's books focus on strictly the performance at Gulfstream. And over the last two winters, Servis had scored at a big 40% rate with his class droppers. As the horses approached the gate Been Waiting was 8/5 but as they left the gate he was 2/1....and when they hit the far turn he was a big 5/2 price. Went right to the front and in spite of pace pressure, jockey Paco Lopez was riding with confidence. As they hit the top of the stretch he shook the reins and Been Waiting drew off impressively. With my double investment I cashed for nearly $40. A great way to start the day. The rest of the day was ruined by longshots.....and a questionable call, in my opinion. In the fifth I went with Bahama Kitten who was dropping out of MSW races for trainer Joe Sharp and top North American owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. She was wide throughout and some six wide into the lane, but in deep stretch she surged......PHOTO FINISH! I thought it was really close and could go either way. The slow motion replay seemed to show that my nose was just in front but it was still awfully tough to tell. Then the "official" photo came up. Do you see what my problem is with this "official" photo?
I've had this problem with many tracks previously and I do NOT understand how this happens - though I have to believe there is a legitimate reason. In the top photo don't concentrate on the runners, but look at the arrow - see how the finish line is where the rail is no longer painted red, but becomes silver. But in the "official" photo you'll note that the rail is RED past the "finish line." Now for someone like me, who's pick was closing on the outside it's easy to believe that this "official photo" was taken before they actually hit the finish line. Does not sit well with me. The "winner" was an 11/1 longshot and that set the tone for my final two selections. In the 7th I really liked Shake Things Up who was another GP 40% Club play - this one from the Jorge Navarro barn. Of the EIGHT angles that qualify him for the club, FOUR were in play here. Shake Things Up went to the front but was hounded from the get-go by a 180/1 long shot to the far turn. As they moved through the turn Shake Things Up cleared the field, but her late energy was gone and in deep stretch the late runners blew by - 5th at a very generous 2/1. Cost me $45. Then in the finale I liked Fahan Mura from the Christophe Clement barn. Pressed to the top of the lane, edged to the front, then was bumped not once but twice in upper stretch by a 42/1 longshot who then edged clear. My rider objected and the head-on view showed that she definitely was knocked off stride, but after recovering she was outfinished. It could go either way, and it obviously went against me. Cost me $42. So instead of cashing on three tickets for nearly $125 I had one winner and lost a little on the day. Back at it tomorrow!
Friday December 9
Well, the good news was that I won with two selections (33% for the day); the bad news was that the first winner had the minimum and the second was at 3/5, so I lost a little again from my xpressbet bankroll. The selection in the opener scored decisively at 4/5, but it was a no-bet. In the second we were sprinting six furlongs in a 2-lifetime claimer. I liked Cowtown Spirit who had sprinted on the turf last time out and returned to the dirt for a 28% winning barn. Right to the front but facing pressure, but she shook free of that one and when asked to find another gear she did - and at a BIG $10.20 payoff! WHOOOO HOOOOO! With the minimum play I cashed for over $25, but I would have had a winning day if I'd doubled the bet. Sigh..... Back-to-back disappointments followed when Amaze, a Todd Pletcher dropper set the pace at 2/1, then weakened in the stretch and Seneca Destiny stopped like he was shot at 2/1 in the 4th for trainer Jorge Navarro. In the fifth I liked Yes It's Factual for Michael Trombetta and Sassy Astray who had Paco Lopez riding. Had it been at Monmouth, the Lopez runner would have been obvious, but I went with the former. Third at 5/2 as she was way too far back and rallied belatedly behind, you guessed it, Sassy Astray who dominated at 8/5. In the 7th Sequoia Princess was a GP 40% Club play for Navarro but ran evenly when fifth as the 8/5 favorite on the turf. My final selection was in the 8th where Mia Torri had been in a Grade 3 photo two back, now in an entry level event for Navarro AND top rider Javier Castellano was up. In retrospect I should have invested more. Might have had I been on track or watching live. She dominated at 3/5 to give me my second win of the day.
Ironically, in the final race of the day I was intrigued by a runner named "Fried Baloney" which was a childhood favorite lunch. I thought I should put $5 to win just as a hunch, but stayed off. Saw the results later.....yes, he won and paid a huge $23.40. WOW. Headed out to the races to meet my buddy Jim Anderson tomorrow where I have not only picks in nine of the eleven races on "Juvenile Showcase Day" locally, but selections from four other tracks including the Fair Grounds where it's "Louisiana Champions Day."
Saturday December 10
Juvenile Showcase Day / La Champions Day
I headed out to Gulfstream today despite that fact that it was a gray, rainy, and windy day and met my buddy Jim Anderson for a day of racing. I turned out to be an "OK" day as I hit with 29+% of my selections and lost just a little, but the wins were scattered and only had two locally. Didn't help that the track conditions were sloppy and the races were off the turf and/or full of scratches. Should have foreseen that it would not be a super day when the opener at Aqueduct saw my choice, the prohibitive 2/5 favorite run fourth of five runners - ouch. Third at Tampa before I lit up the bankroll by tabbing Todd Pletcher's Bode's Dream to win the House Party Stakes - the first of multiple stakes for 2yo runners. With five minutes to post Bode's Dream was the 7/5 favorite, which surprised me because there was a sharp Navarro runner who was 7/5 in the program; coming off a double digit blowout win and had a best-of-75 bullet. As they left the gate the late money came on that one and Bode's Dream drifted up to a huge 5/2 price. She coasted home as tons the best. I had decided at the last minute to up the bet so I cashed for over $50 on my first winner. I was third at 2/1 in the next at Gulfstream, the Hut Hut and third again at 4/5 with a Pletcher MTO runner in the fourth. Even money at Aqueduct only produced a third and then Javier Castellano chased the front running winner all the way around the track in a maiden special on my pick, Wait who was 7/5 out of the gate. Another off the board finish at Aqueduct before the stakes action started at the Fair Grounds. Sir Genghis was the obvious choice in the Louisiana Champions Starter Stakes, but I thought it was a red flag that this speedy stakes winner was running in a starter event instead of one of the added money races. I went with Watch My Smoke who blew by to score at a big 3/1 and I was due to cash for over $40 on my second win. Right back in the 7th at Gulfstream, the Pulpit Stakes which was off the turf and so Todd Pletcher's MTO runner Tapwrit was the pick . Stalked the leaders 4-wide through the turn and then took off handily.
The 3/2 odds led to $25 in cash. Thought I had a good upset pick in the La Champions Turf, going against multiple turf champion String King was hard to do, in Fort Pulaski. I had read Brian Spencer's picks for the day in New Orleans and he liked a lone speed front runner, which I dismissed because speed rarely holds over the Fair Grounds track. Did today as I was a closing second at 2/1. The "best of the day" at Gulfstream came with Recruiting Ready in the Buffalo Man who had all the numbers and was everyone's choice at 3/5. No better than third as Todd Pletcher's colt wired the field. I had a better idea :( The BET of the Day came in the feature at Aqueduct in the Garland of Roses Stakes. The winner was no secret as Paulassilverlining was exiting six graded stakes efforts in a row, including a sharp third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup to run in this $125K listed event. She stalked the pace to the top of the lane then ran away in hand to provide my fourth winner.
Minutes later I won with my "best" on the Louisiana Champions Day card when Big World dueled the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch to prevail in the Ladies Stakes. Even money odds led to a payoff of just over $40. Thinking I might be on a roll!
It was at this point that Jim left for the day, and I was sad to see him go. He had told me earlier in the day that his brother was ill in Minnesota and so he and his wife Stephanie, who was a good school friend of mine, were moving there by the end of the month. I've so enjoyed many track days with Jim and two out of town adventures. He told me one of the first things he thought of when they decided to move was missing out on our track experiences :( But we agreed that we just needed to work hard to come up with at least one if not two track adventures a year to meet somewhere. Thanks for the good times Jim! We'll see you down the road. I missed with the 4/5 favorite at Los Alamitos in their 2nd and then my last live race at Gulfstream in the Smooth Air where I again had a better idea, going with Castellano on a Mark Henning colt while Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez buried the field with my second choice, Fact Finding. I headed for home, hoping I would have the same kind of traffic issues I had last week! Nope - smooth sailing! Watched a little TV and then Kim and I headed out to the Panthers game where we won 4-2 over the Vancouver hockey club. We got home and I watched the rest of the races for the day via xpressbet replays. I won the first of them in a Fair Grounds MSW for juvenile fillies when Princess Samurai edged clear in deep stretch. In Tampa DC Nine ran sharply as a first time starter when 2nd at 5/2. In the fourth at Los Alamitos I backed my hottie rider, Chantal Sutherland, but she was too far back on Spicy Blonde (how appropriate!) and she finished fourth at 7/5. I was surprised when Sunbean disappointed, badly (6th), as the 3/2 favorite in the Louisiana Champions Classic. Boooooo. Next up was the "best" of the day at Los Alamitos in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity for juvenile colts. I had told Jim that I thought Mastery, an unbeaten Bob Baffert colt ridden by Mike Smith, was a legitimate Kentucky Derby runner. The only question was him getting a distance of ground today trying two turns for the first time. He pressed the leader to the far turn, then opened up to lead into the long stretch. The closers began to make their late kick, but Mastery had another gear and he cruised home impressively. I also have to say it was nice to hear track announcer Bobby Newman's voice calling the Los Al races. He had been the Calder announcer for years before they closed their doors a few years ago.
That was it for the day as I ran fourth in the La Champs Ladies' Sprint; second at 6/5 in the La Champs Sprint as the 6/5 favorite, just missed behind a 15/1 upset runner. And then looked clear to victory on Bob Baffert's American Gal as the 4/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet, only to see her caught in deep stretch, second again. Below is the highlight video for the day, which has it's own story. I debated for several days about doing a video. My thinking was it takes quite a bit of time and NO ONE watches them typically, except me. And even I only watch them for a month or so and then they become just part of my files. I went back and forth and finally Friday I decided I would film. But Saturday morning I changed my mind and didn't even take my camera that I use for videos (because of the zoom). But once the races started I re-changed my mind and decided I'd film just the GP races and the highlight scores. Go figure :)
December 10 Highlights
Sunday December 11
After a pretty average week of handicapping I was hopeful that I'd have at least a "good" day on Sunday. I went online around noon and made my wagers for the day as the races were still on the turf. But about 2 pm as I watched the Miami Dolphins telecast it started pouring down rain so I went back online and made a couple of changes. Kim and I went out to dinner and when we came home I watched my five replays. More disappointment. :( Fourth at 9/5 in the opener; speed for a half then stopped badly (8th) in the 2nd. Second as the 6/5 favorite when too far back in the third. And in the fourth I had Todd Pletcher's JS Bach who was unbeaten over the GP surface. He's a front runner and he lost all chance when an outside runner came out of the gate and made a sharp left turn wiping out the entire inside of the field. That one was declared a "non-starter" and my chances were dashed. My dirt pick for the 8th - another Pletcher runner - scratched. Left me with one final pick in the finale, a five furlong dash where I liked Slot Player regardless of the surface. Right to the front and long gone as the even money choice on the board. Ironically, the results today were identical to last Sunday where my lone winner was the only runner I had the minimum investment on. Sigh...... Back at it for the Wednesday card, and I'm hopeful that Thursday I can make my first week-day appearance on track. And Saturday is the first graded stakes events of the winter meeting. LOTS of big races ahead, keep the faith my friends, big days are ahead!
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