Saturday March 18

As I headed out to Gulfstream today I had high hopes for a good day of racing!  The first race of the day was scheduled for a 12:45 post time.....12:45 AM that is!  WHAT!!???? That's right, it was the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes from Rosehill Gardens in Sydney Australia where the Australian super-mare Winx was seeking her sixteenth consecutive victory.  In the articles I read over the last couple of days, it seemed like the trainer was confident but also that he felt this might be her sternest test to date.  This made me wonder about the investment I would make.  But late in the day Friday I began looking online for what the Australian handicappers had to say.  I checked several different online resources and this seemed to be the consensus..... 

I was thrilled that she was posted at even money odds; maybe, just maybe I could get 2-5 on her?  With post time slated at nearly 1 am I was not going to be able to watch the race live, obviously.  So I made the investment on xpressbet late in the evening and told myself I'd be content to wait until morning to watch the replay - BUT that if I woke up in the middle of the night I COULD watch the replay.  Ironically I did awaken at 1:30 am and found my way to the computer and opened up the replays from Australia.  She was on the outside and when the gates opened she was away slowly - hmm, that's not good.  But quickly she was in gear and in a comfortable stalking position apparently running well within herself.  The announcer commented more than once that she was just cruising without being asked.  As they made the left-hand turn into "the straight" she easily picked off runners in the clear to move to the leader.  With the ever-so-slightest flick of the reigns she accelerated as EASILY the best and romped home to extend her winning streak easily!  

I'd decided to make her the BET of the Day, and had invested $50 to win!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO, I'm 1-for-1 and could now go back to bed and rest easily knowing I was off to a great start to the racing adventure!  Kim was in Orlando babysitting our most adorable grandson, Oliver, so I decided to head out to the races earlier than I'd originally planned, but it was actually later than usual as my first selection of the afternoon wasn't until 1:20 pm - first post at Gulfstream was at noon.  So I arrived at about 12:45 and immediately filmed my intro to today's highlight video, including my recap of the first bet and big win!  I even manufactured a simulated ticket to display during the film clip:  Good fun!  

The racing got under way and I ran sixth at a big 5/1 price in the opener at Aqueduct.  Originally I did not plan to play the races at Laurel today, but when I saw on Twitter that the "Gulfstream Gals" - Gabby Gaudet and Acacia Courtney were going to be there I checked out their card Friday afternoon and discovered they had several stakes - minor stakes, but stakes nonetheless - and decided to play.  In the second it was a claiming event going a one-turn mile.  Seeing'n'believing looked suspicious on the drop into this basement level $7.5K spot after having beaten $25K and $16K runners AND allowance runners.  But with the presence of top local rider Trevor McCarthy I was willing to go along for a double investment.  Bet down from the 3/5 program odds to 1/5 post time odds he stalked to pace into the turn, moved up three wide without being asked and then drew off under strong encouragement to score!  At Tampa it was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming sprint and none of these looked interesting, but at second glance Zoey D had some mild interest from me.  She'd run 2nd in back-to-back starts at this level but I thought perhaps the cutback from six furlongs to this 5 1/2 distance might allow her to wire the field.  Instead the rider sat patiently to the top of the stretch behind three leaders - split horses and drew off!  And then came the first (and as it turned out ONLY win at Gulfstream) in my first live bet.  The third was a bottom-level maiden claiming spring for three-year-olds.  Maiden races for this cheap $12.5K level are very difficult to find a legitimate win candidate with a betting edge.  Add to that fact that the Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch had picked THIS RACE, of all the races on this Saturday card, to make his "BEST" of the day.  A cheap $12.5K maiden race is your best?  And, get this, it was a first time starter!  When I'd looked over the card I thought that both Overdriven Cat and Rachelgotstephen looked "good enough" to win at first asking but neither had strong trainer numbers or workouts to suggest a bet.  But Welsch made Overdriven Cat his BEST of the day.  While I do have a few public handicappers who's opinions make a difference to me, Welsch is typically NOT one of them.  But for him to not only pick the first timer - he has to pick someone, it's his job - but to make him the BET of the Day?  What does HE know that we don't know and can't see in the past performances.  So I decided to play the minimum, but I wrote in my analysis to "follow the money" and that if the the first timer was bet down I would up the bet.  With the first flash of the board Overdriven Cat was the heavy favorite.  Good enough for me, I was anxious to up the bet anyway.  By post time the crowd had made Rachelgotspephen the 8/5 favorite and my odds had floated up.  Immediately I knew I had an excellent chance.  A longshot broke on top but Overdriven Cat was just off her flank and they were quickly clear by at least three lengths from the rest of the field, including 'Rachel who had come away slowly and was wide.  Midway on the turn 'Cat was asked to go and he burst away to quickly open up and scored going away.  Check out the price.  

Oh that's right, paid a juicy $90 so my double investment led to a payout of $45 - and I'm three for four LIVE today....four wins on the day counting the big score last night!  Missed on the next two, both minimum plays (4/1 at Oaklawn, 5/1 at Gulfstream).  But I got back into the winner's circle in the third at Aqueduct.  This was a conditioned allowance sprint and I thought the field was evenly matched.  However, David Jacobson's Eighty Three appeared to offer an edge to me.  The downside was he had not won in almost a year, but in that win he beat a horse named Joking who came back to win back-to-back graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Vosburgh on Breeders' Cup Preview Day as my top choice that afternoon.  He stalked the trio of front runners into the lane, split horses and got clear at the 16th pole to pull clear and hold off the closer for the win.  

He was the tepid 9/5 favorite so I cashed for nearly $30.  I was surprised at Laurel when My Golden Rose was unable to get to the winner at even money in a MSW mile trip, 2nd.  Missed again at GP when Todd Pletcher's My Life was a fading fifth at 2/1.  Third at Aqueduct in an allowance preceeded my next win, this one over the turf at the Fair Grounds.  There looked to be a lot of early speed in a maiden claiming race going a mile for three-year-olds; that set the table nicely I thought for Hud who'd shown ability to pass horses and was getting Florent Geroux today.  I thought he'd have this one at mid-pack behind a contested pace.  Instead a 35/1 outsider was determined to sprint to the front and was more than a dozen lengths in front approaching the far turn as the field closed in.  The one moving best from last was Hud who blew by late to get up and score down the middle of the lane.  The generous $6.60 payout led to over $30 of cold, hard cash.  Legacy Azetca was the even money favorite in Gulfstream's 7th and was clear at the furlong pole, but caved in again to finish a clear second.  I missed at Oaklawn when 6th at 2/1 right before I got a nice win at Tampa.  The eighth was a starter optional claiming event going a mile and Nice Not Nice had only been on the turf one time.  That came in December when he was absolutely FLYING to just miss in a photo.  A best of 26 bullet work sealed the deal.  On the far turn he was near the back but easily circled the field to get into position, however his rally landed him about eight wide into the stretch and he lost much of the ground he'd made up.  You could see him re-rally with determination and he was JUST up in time!  The crowd bet him down from 7/2 to 3/2, but I'd doubled the bet so I collected $25 more in winnings.  My first play at Santa Anita looked obvious as Tribal Jewel was clearly the one to beat and went off at 4/5.  Set the pace in hand to the stretch.....she's long gone I thought.  Then she had no kick to the wire and was passed by not one but two rivals.  At Laurel Brawlmer Hon was third at 4/5 in the Conniver Stakes and I missed at Aqueduct when Mr. Palmer failed to produce.  I filmed my late selections and then settled in to watch the Correction Stakes from Aqueduct.  Last winter Clothes Fall Off had run a sharp second in the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel then come to the Big A and won this race.  This year she'd run a close-up third in the Fritchie before coming here.  On the far turn she was fifth and pretty far back.  She began to gather momentum, but turning for home was still not a major threat.  But at the furlong pole either the leaders began to tire or she found another gear because she just BLEW by the leaders and won handily going away.  

March 18 Highlights - Part 1

I should have at least doubled the bet but it looked wide open to me and 'Clothes' figures were lower this year than last.  Still, another win - and a stakes win at that!  At this point I was working on a really good day and coming up on a three race sequence where I figured to rattle off three in a row, but didn't figure to make much profit, just pad my stats.  I was hopeful that Todd Pletcher's debuting 3yo Tolstoy might offer a little value in a big field.  And he was a fair 9/5 - I made him my GP "best" of the day.  Quickly was outrun and then offered very little as he was well up the track, finishing 10th.  In the 9th at Laurel O Dionysus was the 3/5 favorite to get his second stakes win in a row in the Private Terms Stakes for 3yo.  He swept by on the turn and opened a clear lead.  But a closer was coming and it was a head bob on the wire.  Watching live I was nearly certain I'd won, but on my sheet I only wrote the odds and the comment that he'd surged to the lead while five wide and "held on."  I watched the slow mo replay and added the "WIN" to the line and put down the $ signs for recording the winnings.  But then the camera did NOT focus on him but on the other horse.  And it stayed there.  When the photo came up it was so bogus.  The photo above does not accurately portray what the finish was actually like.  My horse was on the inside.  Still, after two straight surprise losses I "knew" I'd win the next one.  As I walked into the simulcast area from watching the Tolstoy race I saw that they were in the stretch at Oaklawn in the Grade 2 Azeri.  My pick, and everyone's pick at odds of 1/5 was Terra Promessa who was my "BEST" of the day in Arkansas.  She was a perfect 5-for-5 at Oaklawn and four of those were in stakes.  Of the ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN Beyers run by her rivals ONE would be competitive with her last two of 95 and 97.  She was the #2....and as I walked in the winner was drawing clear.  But even without my glasses the saddle cloth of the winner did NOT look like a white background with a black "2" on it.......

She didn't even hit the board!  Just like last weekend in the late races where I had back to back favorites with perfect records fail to produce for me.  This sequence of three losses - and the investments that with them cost me a BIG day at the races for sure :(  After missing on the 7th at the Fair Grounds - which I watched on my iPhone while waiting for the 11th to begin at GP I had three last races before I was headed for home.  The feature at Gulfstream was the Grade 2 Inside Information going seven furlongs for fillies and mares.  I have been against Curlin's Approval all winter.  I beat her in the Gr 3 Rampart, but in her last two she was a dominant winner.  At first glance I considered maybe it was time I admitted she was better than I thought.  But I just couldn't get there.  I looked for alternatives and landed on Dearest who might be the speed of the race.  Sure enough that one went off a nice 3/1 and was clear into the lane.  But inside the final 100 yards, out of nowhere was the one horse that had given me pause, John Velazquez on Distinia....blew by at 11/1.  Well, at least I was right about Curlin's Approval who didn't hit the board.  I went inside and it was time for back-to-back big stakes events.  The first was the Caesar's Wish for 3yo fillies from Laurel.  I had made Jenda's Agenda my BEST at Laurel.  But the haunting memory of Terra Promessa - and last week's "sure thing" picks - flashed by me as they loaded into the gate and she was the 2/5 favorite.  Larry Jones' filly was unbeaten in two starts at the Fair Grounds with one of them being a route of ground.  This gave her an advantage over her rivals today who were nearly all sprinters trying a one-turn mile for the first time.  But even more important - though, you can debate this after reading the analysis of Terra Promessa - is that BOTH her Beyer figures were better than ANY of the twenty-one earned by her rivals.  If you had told me before that one of the two - Terra Promessa or Jenda's Agenda - would lose, the one I would have picked is this one because with lightly raced 3yo you never know.  But not today.  Jenda's Agenda ran to her figures and odds and was E-A-S-I-L-Y best.  I had my ninth winner of the day.  

Moments later they were in the gate for the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn.  As I said in both my analysis and my video, "....when Bob Baffert ships to Arkansas you'd better take notice...." and here he had Mor Spirit who had been on the Kentucky Derby trail last spring.  But after failing to produce in the Derby he'd been on the shelf.  That's a long layoff, but Baffert (a) excels with long layoffs and (b) doesn't ship horses to "get a race into them."  Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith was on board.  I have to admit I questioned Smith's judgement when right from the opening bell he took Mor Spirit to the lead and was dueling on the front end.  As they hit the far turn and spun for home Todd Pletcher's Madefromlucky made his move.  The two stars dueled for a 16th of a mile and then Mor Spirit's class kicked in - should have known better than to doubt "Money Man Mike!'  He drew off late to give me my tenth winner!  WHOOO HOOOO!  

I made my final set of bets, filmed a recap of these two winning races and headed for home.  At a stop light I picked up my selection sheet and glanced at the final seven races.  How many did I REALLY think I was going to win?  I thought three was the very likely number; I wouldn't have bet them if I didn't think I had a good chance to win, but you can't win them all I realize.  Four wins from the seven wold have to be considered an excellent end to the day.  After dinner I sat down to watch the late races.  The first was a claiming sprint from Santa Anita.  Boldly True was the class of the field but was a distant fifth at 5/2.  The 11th at Laurel was one of the most exciting races of the day.  Matt King Coal had shipped in from New York for Linda Rice to wire a second level allowance.  This event, the H.E. Johnson Memorial seemed just a click above an allowance contest like that.  With one over the track and his speed, he could easily go coast to coast.  Looking back at last spring's races I noted he'd set the pace in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at this nine furlong distance to the far turn.  There were no Gr 1 winners in here to worry about.  Right to the front and while not loose, he wasn't being pressured too much.  But at the top of the lane another came to him and they went at it.  It was obvious from the final furlong that neither of these will ever be mistaken as nine furlong specialists as they struggled to get the final furlong and better the other.  First the outsider slammed into 'Matt and then as though to say, "hey, get off me" he veered out and slammed him right back.  Bumping and driving to the wire - watch the video recap, the announcer's call says it all - it was a PHOTO FINISH!  I thought I'd won, even more so on the slow motion replay, but hey, RIGHT HERE at Laurel I'd already LOST one of these!  I clicked on the results tab and I was the winner!  

When I opened the replay to record it for the video recap later I saw there was a steward's inquiry that could have taken me down, but fortunately it did not....whew!  The 12th at Gulfstream saw my pick run a distance sixth after being checked and steadied throughout the stretch run - one lone win locally, sigh......  Next on the replay list was the 9th from the Fair Grounds.  King's Ghost figured to be one of the post time favorites.  The 5yo mare was 4/2-1-0 locally with the one off-the-board loss a tossout as it was in a stakes.  This was a second level allowance.  Top national rider Florent Geroux sealed the deal.  Watching the replay I was surprised that I was NOT the 8/5 favorite who was chasing King's Ghost and the longshot leader.  At the top of the lane Geroux let her go and she quickly spurted clear.  The favorite came running, but too little, too late.  The best news was that the payoff was a health $9.40 and I had TRIPLED the bet!  My winning ticket is worth over $70!  That helps immensely on the bottom line!  Next on the lest was my BEST of the Day from Santa Anita.  If you follow my adventures you know how much I LOVE those down-the-hill turf sprints.  This race was a state-bred stakes down the mountain, the Irish O'Brien.  The filly Enola Gray loomed a standout as she'd been down the hill twice, both in state-bred stakes and had drawn off in both.  You could make the case that she'd be pressing a wicked pace and that might compromise her.  But both of the wins down the hill had seen her pushing a hot pace and she drew off.  They came flying out of the gate and she started a bit slow.  So when she rushed up to engage the leaders AND the opening fraction was an insane :20.3 I thought she might indeed get cooked.  But I could tell as they came off the unique right-handed turn and crossed over the course that she was WELL in hand.  They crossed the main track as the fractions went up - they'd covered the first half mile in a sizzling :43.2  Enola Gray opened up easily and instead of the closers gaining on her, with each stride she opened up more and more distance on the field.  IMPRESSIVE!  

The only negative was that she'd been a short 2/5 at post time so my PRIME TIME play resulted in a small profit, but hey, it's win number 13!  One of the races I felt most confident in of these late races was the Grade 2 Rebel from Oaklawn with Bob Baffert's American Anthem.  The highly regarded colt had been scintillating in his debut and maybe even more so when going two turns in the Grade 3 Sham in his first start vs. winners.  That afternoon he led into the stretch before being caught by the more experienced, Grade 1 winner Gormley.  But he fought back and the two dueled to a head-bobbing photo finish, with Am Anthem 2nd.  I thought today he'd prove easily best.  But he was wide throughout and just didn't run - 9th at 8/5.  Interestingly the winner was a Pletcher colt.  A month ago Pletcher sent One Liner to Hot Springs off of two career sprint wins at Gulfstream - where I'd had him both times - to win the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes easily in one of the highest rated Derby preps so far on the Beyer scale.  Today it was Malagacy, also a two-time sprint winner, who I'd had both times; making his two turn and stakes debut.  He drew off like a serious Derby threat.  The final race on the sheet was the Santa Anita feature, the Grade 1 Santa Margarita.  I've had Vale Dori several times as she's run roughshod over the handicap division while Stellar Wind and Songbird progress slowly towards their 2017 debuts.  But today the front running Vale Dori faced pace pressure from the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint queen, Finest City.  I didn't truly think she could go the full nine furlongs, but she was clearly the best opponent I'd seen Vale Dori face and I thought there was a good chance that she could compomise the Baffert runner and open the door for an upset.  So I only doubled the bet.  Sure enough, right out of the gate the two hooked up.  Spinning out of the turn and into the stretch they were half a dozen clear and drawing off from the field.  One head up and one head down until they reached the furlong marker where Vale Dori drew off to win again!  I had my fourteenth winner of the day - a 42% win rate and an excellent afternoon of racing!

March 18 Highlights - Part 2 

Week 16

March 15 - 19

Wednesday March 15

What a G-R-E-A-T start to the week's racing!  As I've often said about Gulfstream specificially and racing in general, you never know where the next big win is going to come from.  I could as easily be in a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup World Championship race or a Wednesday afternoon's third race, just another maiden special weight event on the card.  And such it was today.  The first bet came in the second, a starter optional claiming event where Too Clever By Half was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite as he looked to be long gone on the lead.  But he was outsprinted to the front and was forced to track the leader.  Took the lead in the lane but was overrun by a 50/1 longshot.  Wow.  Then came that maiden race.  To quote my analysis, ".....Let's check to make sure...where are we?  Gulfstream; and what time of year?  Winter-Championship Meet.  And this is what kind of race?  Maiden Special; for what kind of runners?  Three year olds.  And, is there a Pletcher?  Oh you bet there is...." I've said this before, but it bears repeating - the Gulfstream slogan for the year is "This is YOUR playground," but in fact it is Todd Pletcher's playground when it comes to either maiden special three year olds, or returning sophomores off a long break.  Stay Fond had made her debut in a KEY MSW sprint at Monmouth when she finished third after dueling from gate to the stretch and TWO exited to win next time out.  So off the long layoff, in a 3yo MSW that was all you need to know.  But, add in Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez - duh.  Even better, owner Michael Repole loves winning races and he most often teams with Pletcher and Velazquez - again, these were the connections for the daughter of champion Stay Thirsty (also owned by Repole, trained by Pletcher!).  The stretch to a one-turn mile looked to be right up her alley.  I was hopeful that I'd get a fair price at post time - she was listed at 7/2 in the program - because of the presence of Awestruck who had been a sharp third in her debut when well beaten by Pletcher's Nonna Bella.  That one came back to win easily in allowance company and the runner-up in that maiden event, Salty, dominated last Sunday.  But jockey Joe Bravo was a woeful 0-for-23 when riding for trainer George Weaver and this just looked like a very vulnerable favorite, especially with the Pletcher filly as the alternative.  I actually wondered if I was wise to play Stay Thirsty because the crowd sent Awestruck off as the 1/5 favorite and immediately she went to the front and looked comfortable into the stretch.  But then Velazquez asked his filly for run.  The response was immediate and she collared the leader and then opened up to dominate the race!  Well you can imagine with the 1/5 favorite taking the lion's share of the betting I was going to get a fair price, but check out this gift from the racing gods..... 

That's right, $16.80 on a Pletcher 3yo at Gulfstream.  WHAT!!!????  And I had it to the tune of over $125.  So astounding.  This was sure to be THE highlight of the week.  Right back in the fifth I came back with a Bill Mott runner on the turf (remember, I met him last Saturday in Tampa!) - Tisbury.  You could toss the last race in an off-the-turf event; if she ran back to either of the 80 Beyers she'd earned last summer she was your winner.  She staked through the turn, took over and ran away as much the best.  

The $6.40 payoff led to a return of over $30.  For the day I finished 6/2-2-0 with a profit of over $80 to start the week!

Thursday March 16
The eleven race card on Thursday was slow to get going for me as I passed on the first three races and in the fourth I only had a minimum play - where the even money favorite, my pick, ran sixth.  I doubled the bet in the fifth, a non-winners of three lifetime sprint at seven furlongs.  The pick was Venezuelan Beauty who looked to be the speed of the race for jockey Jose Ortiz.  Two angles pointed this one out for me:  (1) he consistently ran Beyer figures in the 60s (which would win today) and (2) he drops out of a much better race today.  I was right on point as Ortiz shot the favorite right to the front and he coasted home as M-U-C-H the best.

Cashed for nearly $20 on the 4/5 choice.  Back to a minimum play in the sixth where Stella Street moved boldy into the stretch while fanning very wide; she re-rallied and just missed to be second at 9/5.  The seventh was a maiden sprint for three-year-olds and up and I'm Thirsty had a pattern I'd seen trainer Jorge Navarro win with countless times.  He frequently claims a horse; moves them up in class where they run evenly; then drop them back down and they win convincingly.  I was initially a bit wary that none of the "go-to" riders he typically uses was up today but a ten-pound apprentice.  But when the crowd really hammered him at the windows both in the WIN slot and in the multi-race wagers I upped the bet.  RIGHT to the front and I had my second wire-to-wire winner on the afternoon.

The odds floated up to a "fair" 3/5 so I cashed for $32 on what had become a PRIME TIME play!  The eighth was one of the few times that in a maiden event for three-year-olds that I went only the minimum on a Pletcher entry.  Fact Check was stretching out to two turns after being moved up to second via DQ in a turf sprint last time out, so there was the distance question.  And, Pletcher is typically less effective on the turf; and finally, being in post twelve I was not that confident that he'd run as well as most Pletcher sophomores.  Should have known.....right to the front when crossing the field three wide into the first turn and took off to go wire to wire.

But I still was able to collect a very fair return as he was a co-2/1 favorite and paid $6, so I collected $15 on my third win of the day!  I missed on a Pletcher runner in the tenth when I went against my better judgement.  Joe Bravo had only eight wins from 132 mounts at the meet, but when riding for Todd Pletcher he'd won at a big 43% with a $2.77 ROI.  So I tripled the bet on Donegal Moon who'd won the Grade 3 Pegasus last summer at Monmouth.  Bravo - as fits his win percent - had him WAY too far back so his belated run into fourth was never a win threat.  Still, three-for-six on the days with another profitable afternoon went into the books!

Friday March 17
I spent a good deal of time yesterday and today handicapping for tomorrow's big adventure to the races, but I kept an eye on the Gulfstream program today as I had another half dozen selections.  I was off the board in the first two when Shere Kahn was fifth in the 2nd at 9/5 and Stormin Maclean was 4th at 2/1 in a Maiden Special for 3yo as a first timer on the turf.  In the sixth I thought that Flying To Honor appeared like a standout to me despite the fact that he was running in a $16K maiden claimer where typically it's hard to find a solid play.  Flying To Honor was dropping out of MSW company, the most powerful drop in racing.  He also had been in post ten of a full field of fourteen runners; AND he had pressed a very quick pace for half a mile before caving.  The barn was 24% with 2nd time maidens, 33% with MSW to MC moves and a huge 43% with "blinkers off."  But the biggest, eye-catching stat was the barns best-of-30 bullet move in a sizzling :59.3 for five furlongs.  He was the DRF BEST of the day as well.  I tripled the bet.  He broke right on top and coasted wire-to-wire well never being threatened!

I cashed for nearly $30 and suddenly I was in the black for the day!  Whooo hoooo.  In the eighth, a turf event there looked to be a TON of speed and that set the table perfectly for closer Quiet Force.  I was concerned when TWO runners, both front runners, scratched.  But both GP on-air handicappers picked Quiet Force and they agreed with my feeling that there was still enough speed to set up my pick's late run.  But instead the eventual winner coasted on the easiest of leads and went wire to wire.  I ran third at 9/5.  My next pick was scheduled to be in the tenth.  But as I watched the live feed I was taken by the fact that one of the runners in the 9th was being hammered at the windows.  I checked my analysis and I had put Stella Performance on top with this comment, ".....provokes mild interest off a troubled debut when third and getting a rider switch to Ortiz.  But the barn's 21/0-2-3 record is scary bad......"  Hmmmm.  The crowd is so confident in spite of the barn's record - so I checked the multi-race payoffs.  Again, the clear, heavy favorite.  I just had "that feeling" and so I opened my wagering window and place a "bonus bet" of $10 to WIN on Stella Performance.  Just like the first winner on the day, Stella Performance went right to the front, was clear on an easy lead and was a decisive winner!  NICE PLAY Mr. Mark!

In the finale of my betting selections, Defer Heaven SHOULD be a decisive winner as well.  This guy was the very definition of a "Horse-for-the-Course" with SIX wins from eight starts locally, and one of them, a start in the Sir Shackleton Handicap on Florida Derby Day last spring was an obvious race over his head.  But in his most recent he'd been off form.  Trainer Jorge Navarro put a the same ten pound apprentice up that had won for him yesterday and I was certain he'd give instructions to the bug boy to "get in front and hang on!"  Add all this in and then factor in that Defer Heaven looked to be the ONLY speed of the race.  Sure enough, Defer Heaven EXPLODED out of the gate was quickly two or three lengths in front within the first couple of jumps;  right to the front and went wire to wire!  My third win of the day and a third consecutive day of profit.

The highlight racing card today was at Oaklawn where over $2 million in purses was on the line on their "Arkansas Derby Preview" card.  I was particularly interested because we have booked a long weekend getaway there for April 12-16.  I had a great day at the races on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon.  Check out the stories in the individual journal by clicking

HERE

March 18th Highlights - Part 1

March 18th Highlights - Part 2

Sunday March 19
I felt "comfortable" with my selections on the day.  I say this because many times, especially after a good day of handicapping ON TRACK on a Saturday I have a disappointing day on Sunday.  But unlike many times when I'm "concerned" about "losing back" some of my winnings, I felt "good" about today's picks.  I made my online plays via xpressbet.com early in the day and then Kim and I went to see "Beauty and the Beast" at the theaters.  The film was excellent, just spectacular.  And I read later in the day that the film generated over $170 million in revenue over the weekend - the best opening EVER for a March film.  The star was Emma Watson who grew up in the Harry Potter films, and she was wonderful.  After dinner I got online to check the results for the day.  I missed on the first five at odds of 3/5, 6/5, 3/1, 9/5 and 7/2 before finally scoring in the last bet of the day on Girl Town Cat.  This filly was lightly raced and had last been seen winning at Saratoga going nine furlongs last summer.  I thought this one-turn mile would be a good fit for a comeback race, and I particularly liked the three near-bullet works trainer Kirarn McLaughlin had put into her in preparation for today.  The outside draw in post eight would enable her to comfortably track the leaders I thought.  But right away as they broke from the gate I could sense trouble.  While the inside four or five were running comfortably, it appeared that my rider was having to work on her to just keep within range.  Not a good feeling to have the 7/5 favorite already being asked before they hit the far turn!  But as the field turned for home all but two of the others had dropped out and it looked like Girl Town Cat was now getting warmed to the task.  At the sixteenth pole she collared the leader and edged clear late.

The $4.80 payoff allowed me to get back nearly half of today's investments.  Despite the 1-win day I still had a great week of racing:

Florida Derby Analysis

All Day Sucker Makes his first start 

Pookie Delicious Makes his first start 

Silver Dagger Makes his first start 

Shadow Rider Makes his first start 

Number One Makes his first start 

Fiveotwo Makes his first start 

Good and Proper Makes his first start 

Honorable Duty Makes his first start 

Strike Em Down Makes his first start 

Lava Makes his first start 

Caprock Kid Makes his first start 

Weekend Express Makes his first start 

MAIN TRACK ONLY:  Our Commodore Makes his first start 

Tampa Bay Derby Day

At this point, today was CLEARLY the best day of the winter racing season.  Not because I had the biggest profit; not because I had the most wins or best win percentage; but simply because it was a great day of racing under perfect Florida winter blue skies and mild temperatures; while on an adventure out of town AND most importantly I got to share the day with family and friends.  Just a GREAT day.  I was up early to make the drive across Alligator Alley and the car thermostat showed that the outside air temperature never got out of the low 60s - just cruised along with the windows down and downed two cups of coffee as I drove to Englewood.  Picked up my father-in-law Ed and we set off for Tampa Bay Downs.  We pulled up about 11:15 am and discovered parking was free.  When we handed our tickets over we got a voucher for a free umbrella AND a free program.  Wow, we're winners without ever starting!  I gave Ed the program I'd put together (see below) and he began looking over the races to make his picks.  I headed into the gift shop and found the perfect Tampa Bay Downs shirt.  Shortly after returning to the seats my great gal-pal Anya - who I'd taught with at both Western High School and Cypress Bay High School arrived with her husband Jack.  Soon, they were loading into the gate for the first race......

Race 1 from Tampa was a nw2Y claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth.  As I looked at the race the first time it appeared that Financial Freedom on the rail was the probable favorite, and looked like a likely winner.  As I looked for alternatives I found the key to the race.  Two races back in a nw1Y event Financial Freedom had dropped in for this price tag and was sent off as the 4/5 favorite.  He was 2nd in a photo finish behind a horse by the name of China Prince.  Looking down through the entries, nearly every horse in the field had been defeated by OPEN lengths by this same China Prince.   This made Financial Freedom look even stronger to me.  He opened as the 2/1 favorite and the longer the betting went on the more money he took.  He left the gate as the 6/5 favorite and shot right to the front.  Tampa typically is not kind to front runners but he was strong on the lead and no one came within three lengths of him throughout.  One-for-one!  As we all cheered I exclaimed, "We're undefeated - time to go home!"  :)

I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for nearly $20.  I hurried downstairs as post time was approaching for the second at Gulfstream, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds for a basement price of $12,500.  This was a particularly WEAK event and it made the program favorite, Sparky's Surprise, look even stronger as he was dropping from $25K company.  AND both of his races had earned a speed figure that would EASILY beat any number earned by the rest of the field.  Figured to run at least as well on the drop.  He stalked to the top of the stretch, moved three wide to the front, but as he drifted out there was a runner up the rail that made it close, but I was certain I'd won....and I did!  TWO for TWO!

I thought the even money price was more than generous and I was holding a ticket worth $20.  Went to the windows and cashed both tickets and made my next set of wagering selections.  I missed in the Tampa 3rd and the fourth at Gulfstream before cashing my next ticket.  This was another live race at Tampa, their fourth.  It was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds going seven furlongs.  A month ago I'd tabbed Todd Pletcher's Egyptian Hero to break his maiden here.  That day it had looked to me that his debut loss at Gulfstream may have been due to not being fully cranked, and a hint to that was that a local rider was up.  So when he came here and John Velazquez was riding I thought they were serious.  Looked impressive.  So today, with Velazquez back up and none of the others looking formidable, I thought he could win right back.  The likely alternative was The Cookie Man who already had three wins, but those were in cheap claiming events.  That one took the lead and was clear into the turn.  Velazquez asked the Egyptian to run and he caught him just outside the furlong pole.  It was a thrilling stretch run, but in the final fifty yards Pletcher's colt edged clear!  HORRAY!

I thought the $4.40 payoff was fair and I was collecting over $20.  I didn't have a bet in the fifth at Tampa so we set this break as our "photo op" time.  The four of us headed down to the rail and I asked a guy to take our picture.  Then we took turns taking pictures in pairs.....

Missed at Gulfstream and then I was third in the sixth at Tampa where I went with Closing Bell for Bill Mott.  I mention this because after the second race here I was walking along and there was Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.  I stopped him and shook his hand.  When I said, "I've bet a lot of your horses over the years," he smiled broadly and replied, "Well thanks, I hope you're not losing money!"  I assured him I was not.  Another interesting tidbit was my second choice was Gold Shield and my father-in-law Ed is a big time jockey handicapper.  I told him I liked that horse, with John Velazquez, but I thought the race was too short for him as he normally ran in marathon events.  Velazquez showed why he's a Hall of Famer as he kept Gold Shield close to the front and they won easily.  In the seventh at Gulfstream it was a state-bred AOC with a field full of mostly low level claimers of the $10K variety.  I typically don't like to bet those kind of runners right back, but Prudhoe Bay had just scored with authority AND was claimed away by trainer Saffie Joseph.  That guy is having a super meet and is winning at a nearly 40% clip first off the claim.  He tracked the field into the stretch, came into the straight some three wide and just wore down the leaders before drawing off late.

FOUR WINS - this is MUCH better than last Saturday :)  Missed in the seventh at Tampa in the Columbia Stakes when Bird's Eye View was a big 9/1 and ran evenly.  I went on a nice winning streak over the next hour, first back at Gulfstream where I won my second in a row in Hallandale.  This was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds on the turf.  Mo Maverick had won with authority the first time he moved to the inner course and his Beyer figure skyrocketed.  Came right back to win in allowance company off that.  Then in his last he was a sharp 2nd in a stakes on the main track with a similar figure.  I thought he run well on the return to the grass.  Right to the front and was never threatened!

When I got back to the seats I'd mentioned that I wanted to watch the next race, the Challenger Stakes from the rail so Jack and I headed down.  I'd never had a chance to chat one-on-one with Jack and I enjoyed talking to him while we waited on the rail - a really good guy.....which Anya deserves because she's a really sweet gal.  The Challenger was a listed $100K event and the obvious choice was Todd Pletcher's Stanford who was a multiple graded stakes winner.  As I told everyone, IF he ran his race he would be way, WAY too good for these.  But my "issue" with him was that he had more than once tossed in a clunker.  But, he was coming off a 2nd place photo finish loss in the $400K Poseidon - the support race for the "alternate" entries to the $12 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup to this $100K spot.  We were just down from the gate and he burst out of the gate and was quickly in command.  He wired the field in hand and flashed by us to the finish line.  An interesting side note....as Jack and I stood on the rail chatting prior to the race I told him the one thing I didn't like about Tampa was that IF you stand on the rail, during the stretch run there are people walking by and they seem to time it so that just as the winner is running by you they block your vision.  True to form, just as Stanford passed the furlong pole and I began shooting my video - check out the pic above.  Sigh.......  I headed inside to the simulcast televisions as I had another race from Gulfstream.  There was about eight minutes to post so I circled around to the backside of the mutual windows, pulled out my program (make note of this, it's significant to this story!), and cashed my tickets then made my next series of bets.  I remember this distinctly because the amount that was being returned to me after making the bets was $4 and I gave the guy a $1 bill and said, "What a deal, I make bets and get money back" and we both chuckled.  So I then headed to the paddock area to film a clip with the winning ticket from the Stanford race.  No where good to film.  Headed back towards the grandstand facility and found some stairs where I could position my camera and take the clip.  I did so and then headed inside to watch the Gulfstream race.  After the race (see results & comments below) I went to add my comments and results but wait.....where's my program?  It's not in any of my pockets, nor is it in my jacket pocket.  I just had it, I know I did.  I circled back to the paddock, no - back to the stairs, no - back to the teller's window, no - back to the simulcast area, no.  Where is it?  Did I leave it at my seat?  I'm sure I didn't, as I distinctly remember having it out making the bets.  So I retraced my steps again - paddock, stairs, teller, tvs......no.  Seriously?  Not that it's a huge issue as I have the picks online and I can always document afterwards, but it's how I do it.  I went back to the seats and of course it's not there.  I told Ed and Anya my story and kindly Anya gave me her program that I'd made for her.  No, no I said, but she insisted.  I thanked her and made a note about the last race then told them I was heading down to film from a closer vantage point.  As I walked down the stairs I hitched up my pants and went to re-tuck my shirt in down my back and then....felt it, THERE'S my program!  I'd put it inside my belt during the video filming.  Went back up to tell everyone about my senior moment :)  Well, at least I got some extra walking in :))))

NOTE:  This is a photo I took from the rail :)

So the race at Gulfstream was the 9th, a claiming race going six furlongs.  At first glance the field was pretty nondescript, but then I noticed.....Starship Apollo had been claimed for this $6.25K price tag two back by top claiming conditioner Jorge Navarro.  I've seen him do this so many times.....raised 'Apollo up in price where he ran evenly, and now today he was returning to the claim level.  Nearly always the Navarro runners respond to this with a big effort.  He was my play.  He saved ground through the turn, slide outside four wide into the stretch and caught the leaders inside the final 16th to score!  And the best part.....the price!

Went off at a generous 4/1 so I cashed for nearly $30!  The one race that I wish I'd won was the next, my "BEST" of the day at Tampa in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.  At the beginning of the day Anya remarked to me that she'd read through all the material I'd sent them and she found it interesting that I mentioned one jockey who nearly never won for me - Julian Leparoux.  And I smiled and told her that ironically he was riding my BEST BET of the day - that was La Coronel here.  He rated he to the stretch, split horses and forged to a narrow lead but was caught in the final strides by a well-timed ride from a deep closing rival.  You can't really blame Leparoux for that, but I will - he should have made a better timed ride!  See the photo at right.  Right back with my first selection at Santa Anita where Paradise Woods was MUCH the best in a maiden special sprint for sophomores.  Cashed for nearly $20.  I was disappointed - despite running off three in a row at Gulfstream - that I didn't win the tenth.  It was a MSW on the turf and I liked Hieroglyphics who had been nosed out at 11/1 when close to the pace a month ago when I won that race with a closing Chad Brown filly.  I thought he looked like the lone speed, but he pressed a longshot, forged to the front into the stretch, but weakened late to finish fourth at 2/1.  The tenth at Tampa was the Grade 2 Hillsborough and I'd been hoping that Breeders' Cup Champion Tepin would make her 2017 debut here, but it was announced a week ago that she wouldn't make the race.  I told Ed that Isabella Sings was the logical favorite and indeed had been my Tampa Best a month ago in the prep for this, the Grade 3 Endeavour.  But I also told him I didn't think today was her day, especially at this nine furlong distance.  My two alternatives were Swiss Range who was a Euro import who'd run well when just missing in a Woodbine Grade 1 in her first NA start.  The other alternative was Dickinson who was exiting a Grade 3 win at Gulfstream and I thought she had a good chance, but I preferred Swiss Range.  Should have gone with Dickinson who won with my pick running fifth at 4/1.  The fifth race at Santa Anita, where it was "Big 'Cap Day" was the Grade 2 San Felipe, their last prep for the 3yo colts shooting for the Santa Anita Derby and hopefully a Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May.  Bob Baffert, like Todd Pletcher in the east, always has several top colts.  This year's star is Mastery who was a perfect 3-for-3 with two Grade 1 wins.  The only question was if he was ready coming off a layoff when he won the Los Alamitos Futurity in mid-December.  But Baffert, like most top trainers spot their lightly raced prized colts carefully when they are unbeaten.  If Mastery had already lost once or twice they might use this as a prep race and have him fully cranked for the SA Derby.  But being unbeaten, I expected a sharp effort.  And he was as he wired the field easily.

The bad news was that shortly after passing the wire jockey Mike Smith thought he was acting funny and when they took x-rays back at the barn they discovered Mastery had a leg injury and so he's off the Derby trail.  In the Tampa Bay Derby I wasn't a fan of either Sonic Mule or Tapwrit who were both Pletcher colts.  But I just had this feeling that one might win, most likely Tapwrit who was a strong closing second in the Gr 3 Sam Davis, the prep for this.  The star of the day should have been the unbeaten McCracken, but he had to withdraw due to a minor injury and he's now pointing for the Bluegrass Stakes in a few weeks.  But I went for the upset with Beasley who'd run strongly when facing Todd Pletcher's Battalion Runner.  I've seen that guy win his maiden debut and then his allowance start last time out - both as my BET of the Day - and now he's being pointed for the Florida Derby.  Beasley was a nice 9/2 at post time but ran evenly.  We headed out after the Derby and the exit from the parking lot was one of the smoothest and quickest from a major sporting event I've ever enjoyed!  We made good time back to Englewood and had a late dinner with my mother-in-law Peggy.  After we finished eating I checked my four late races.  Lost back to back in races where you just had to smile and say "whatever"......in Gulfstream's Silks Run Stakes Power Alert was the 4/5 favorite and was a perfect 5-for-5 at Gulfstream....until today, 2nd.  Then in Santa Anita's Grade 1 Triple Bend Masochistic was the LONE speed, a multiple graded stakes winner, and a perfect 3-for-3 at this distance.  Loose on the lead to the stretch when a 19/1 longshot ran by him.  Ironically that longshot had been my pick last time out as the favorite and had lost!  But I closed the day with a nice win in Santa Anita's China Doll Stakes.  At first glance I wasn't feeling strongly about any of these, but DRF analyst Brad Free is one of only a couple national handicappers that I value his opinion and he made Sircat Sally his BET of the Day saying, "....she's undefeated, faster than these others and the most probable winner on the card...."  She was easily the best as the 6/5 favorite.

For the day I finished an excellent 10-for-22, 45% with five seconds and a third.  Next weekend is Oaklawn's final set of prep races for their big Arkansas Derby Day extravaganza....and Kim & I will be meeting Keith in Hot Springs for that adventure in mid-April, so I'll be playing that card as well as Gulfstream's live races on Saturday for the feature activity of the week.

View from our seats :)

Tampa Bay Derby Day Highlights

The Tampa Bay Derby Program