As I headed out to Gulfstream today I had high hopes for a good day of racing! The first race of the day was scheduled for a 12:45 post time.....12:45 AM that is! WHAT!!???? That's right, it was the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes from Rosehill Gardens in Sydney Australia where the Australian super-mare Winx was seeking her sixteenth consecutive victory. In the articles I read over the last couple of days, it seemed like the trainer was confident but also that he felt this might be her sternest test to date. This made me wonder about the investment I would make. But late in the day Friday I began looking online for what the Australian handicappers had to say. I checked several different online resources and this seemed to be the consensus.....
I was thrilled that she was posted at even money odds; maybe, just maybe I could get 2-5 on her? With post time slated at nearly 1 am I was not going to be able to watch the race live, obviously. So I made the investment on xpressbet late in the evening and told myself I'd be content to wait until morning to watch the replay - BUT that if I woke up in the middle of the night I COULD watch the replay. Ironically I did awaken at 1:30 am and found my way to the computer and opened up the replays from Australia. She was on the outside and when the gates opened she was away slowly - hmm, that's not good. But quickly she was in gear and in a comfortable stalking position apparently running well within herself. The announcer commented more than once that she was just cruising without being asked. As they made the left-hand turn into "the straight" she easily picked off runners in the clear to move to the leader. With the ever-so-slightest flick of the reigns she accelerated as EASILY the best and romped home to extend her winning streak easily!
I'd decided to make her the BET of the Day, and had invested $50 to win! WHOOOOO HOOOOO, I'm 1-for-1 and could now go back to bed and rest easily knowing I was off to a great start to the racing adventure! Kim was in Orlando babysitting our most adorable grandson, Oliver, so I decided to head out to the races earlier than I'd originally planned, but it was actually later than usual as my first selection of the afternoon wasn't until 1:20 pm - first post at Gulfstream was at noon. So I arrived at about 12:45 and immediately filmed my intro to today's highlight video, including my recap of the first bet and big win! I even manufactured a simulated ticket to display during the film clip: Good fun!
The racing got under way and I ran sixth at a big 5/1 price in the opener at Aqueduct. Originally I did not plan to play the races at Laurel today, but when I saw on Twitter that the "Gulfstream Gals" - Gabby Gaudet and Acacia Courtney were going to be there I checked out their card Friday afternoon and discovered they had several stakes - minor stakes, but stakes nonetheless - and decided to play. In the second it was a claiming event going a one-turn mile. Seeing'n'believing looked suspicious on the drop into this basement level $7.5K spot after having beaten $25K and $16K runners AND allowance runners. But with the presence of top local rider Trevor McCarthy I was willing to go along for a double investment. Bet down from the 3/5 program odds to 1/5 post time odds he stalked to pace into the turn, moved up three wide without being asked and then drew off under strong encouragement to score! At Tampa it was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming sprint and none of these looked interesting, but at second glance Zoey D had some mild interest from me. She'd run 2nd in back-to-back starts at this level but I thought perhaps the cutback from six furlongs to this 5 1/2 distance might allow her to wire the field. Instead the rider sat patiently to the top of the stretch behind three leaders - split horses and drew off! And then came the first (and as it turned out ONLY win at Gulfstream) in my first live bet. The third was a bottom-level maiden claiming spring for three-year-olds. Maiden races for this cheap $12.5K level are very difficult to find a legitimate win candidate with a betting edge. Add to that fact that the Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch had picked THIS RACE, of all the races on this Saturday card, to make his "BEST" of the day. A cheap $12.5K maiden race is your best? And, get this, it was a first time starter! When I'd looked over the card I thought that both Overdriven Cat and Rachelgotstephen looked "good enough" to win at first asking but neither had strong trainer numbers or workouts to suggest a bet. But Welsch made Overdriven Cat his BEST of the day. While I do have a few public handicappers who's opinions make a difference to me, Welsch is typically NOT one of them. But for him to not only pick the first timer - he has to pick someone, it's his job - but to make him the BET of the Day? What does HE know that we don't know and can't see in the past performances. So I decided to play the minimum, but I wrote in my analysis to "follow the money" and that if the the first timer was bet down I would up the bet. With the first flash of the board Overdriven Cat was the heavy favorite. Good enough for me, I was anxious to up the bet anyway. By post time the crowd had made Rachelgotspephen the 8/5 favorite and my odds had floated up. Immediately I knew I had an excellent chance. A longshot broke on top but Overdriven Cat was just off her flank and they were quickly clear by at least three lengths from the rest of the field, including 'Rachel who had come away slowly and was wide. Midway on the turn 'Cat was asked to go and he burst away to quickly open up and scored going away. Check out the price.
Oh that's right, paid a juicy $90 so my double investment led to a payout of $45 - and I'm three for four LIVE today....four wins on the day counting the big score last night! Missed on the next two, both minimum plays (4/1 at Oaklawn, 5/1 at Gulfstream). But I got back into the winner's circle in the third at Aqueduct. This was a conditioned allowance sprint and I thought the field was evenly matched. However, David Jacobson's Eighty Three appeared to offer an edge to me. The downside was he had not won in almost a year, but in that win he beat a horse named Joking who came back to win back-to-back graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Vosburgh on Breeders' Cup Preview Day as my top choice that afternoon. He stalked the trio of front runners into the lane, split horses and got clear at the 16th pole to pull clear and hold off the closer for the win.
He was the tepid 9/5 favorite so I cashed for nearly $30. I was surprised at Laurel when My Golden Rose was unable to get to the winner at even money in a MSW mile trip, 2nd. Missed again at GP when Todd Pletcher's My Life was a fading fifth at 2/1. Third at Aqueduct in an allowance preceeded my next win, this one over the turf at the Fair Grounds. There looked to be a lot of early speed in a maiden claiming race going a mile for three-year-olds; that set the table nicely I thought for Hud who'd shown ability to pass horses and was getting Florent Geroux today. I thought he'd have this one at mid-pack behind a contested pace. Instead a 35/1 outsider was determined to sprint to the front and was more than a dozen lengths in front approaching the far turn as the field closed in. The one moving best from last was Hud who blew by late to get up and score down the middle of the lane. The generous $6.60 payout led to over $30 of cold, hard cash. Legacy Azetca was the even money favorite in Gulfstream's 7th and was clear at the furlong pole, but caved in again to finish a clear second. I missed at Oaklawn when 6th at 2/1 right before I got a nice win at Tampa. The eighth was a starter optional claiming event going a mile and Nice Not Nice had only been on the turf one time. That came in December when he was absolutely FLYING to just miss in a photo. A best of 26 bullet work sealed the deal. On the far turn he was near the back but easily circled the field to get into position, however his rally landed him about eight wide into the stretch and he lost much of the ground he'd made up. You could see him re-rally with determination and he was JUST up in time! The crowd bet him down from 7/2 to 3/2, but I'd doubled the bet so I collected $25 more in winnings. My first play at Santa Anita looked obvious as Tribal Jewel was clearly the one to beat and went off at 4/5. Set the pace in hand to the stretch.....she's long gone I thought. Then she had no kick to the wire and was passed by not one but two rivals. At Laurel Brawlmer Hon was third at 4/5 in the Conniver Stakes and I missed at Aqueduct when Mr. Palmer failed to produce. I filmed my late selections and then settled in to watch the Correction Stakes from Aqueduct. Last winter Clothes Fall Off had run a sharp second in the Grade 2 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel then come to the Big A and won this race. This year she'd run a close-up third in the Fritchie before coming here. On the far turn she was fifth and pretty far back. She began to gather momentum, but turning for home was still not a major threat. But at the furlong pole either the leaders began to tire or she found another gear because she just BLEW by the leaders and won handily going away.
March 18 Highlights - Part 1
I should have at least doubled the bet but it looked wide open to me and 'Clothes' figures were lower this year than last. Still, another win - and a stakes win at that! At this point I was working on a really good day and coming up on a three race sequence where I figured to rattle off three in a row, but didn't figure to make much profit, just pad my stats. I was hopeful that Todd Pletcher's debuting 3yo Tolstoy might offer a little value in a big field. And he was a fair 9/5 - I made him my GP "best" of the day. Quickly was outrun and then offered very little as he was well up the track, finishing 10th. In the 9th at Laurel O Dionysus was the 3/5 favorite to get his second stakes win in a row in the Private Terms Stakes for 3yo. He swept by on the turn and opened a clear lead. But a closer was coming and it was a head bob on the wire. Watching live I was nearly certain I'd won, but on my sheet I only wrote the odds and the comment that he'd surged to the lead while five wide and "held on." I watched the slow mo replay and added the "WIN" to the line and put down the $ signs for recording the winnings. But then the camera did NOT focus on him but on the other horse. And it stayed there. When the photo came up it was so bogus. The photo above does not accurately portray what the finish was actually like. My horse was on the inside. Still, after two straight surprise losses I "knew" I'd win the next one. As I walked into the simulcast area from watching the Tolstoy race I saw that they were in the stretch at Oaklawn in the Grade 2 Azeri. My pick, and everyone's pick at odds of 1/5 was Terra Promessa who was my "BEST" of the day in Arkansas. She was a perfect 5-for-5 at Oaklawn and four of those were in stakes. Of the ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN Beyers run by her rivals ONE would be competitive with her last two of 95 and 97. She was the #2....and as I walked in the winner was drawing clear. But even without my glasses the saddle cloth of the winner did NOT look like a white background with a black "2" on it.......
She didn't even hit the board! Just like last weekend in the late races where I had back to back favorites with perfect records fail to produce for me. This sequence of three losses - and the investments that with them cost me a BIG day at the races for sure :( After missing on the 7th at the Fair Grounds - which I watched on my iPhone while waiting for the 11th to begin at GP I had three last races before I was headed for home. The feature at Gulfstream was the Grade 2 Inside Information going seven furlongs for fillies and mares. I have been against Curlin's Approval all winter. I beat her in the Gr 3 Rampart, but in her last two she was a dominant winner. At first glance I considered maybe it was time I admitted she was better than I thought. But I just couldn't get there. I looked for alternatives and landed on Dearest who might be the speed of the race. Sure enough that one went off a nice 3/1 and was clear into the lane. But inside the final 100 yards, out of nowhere was the one horse that had given me pause, John Velazquez on Distinia....blew by at 11/1. Well, at least I was right about Curlin's Approval who didn't hit the board. I went inside and it was time for back-to-back big stakes events. The first was the Caesar's Wish for 3yo fillies from Laurel. I had made Jenda's Agenda my BEST at Laurel. But the haunting memory of Terra Promessa - and last week's "sure thing" picks - flashed by me as they loaded into the gate and she was the 2/5 favorite. Larry Jones' filly was unbeaten in two starts at the Fair Grounds with one of them being a route of ground. This gave her an advantage over her rivals today who were nearly all sprinters trying a one-turn mile for the first time. But even more important - though, you can debate this after reading the analysis of Terra Promessa - is that BOTH her Beyer figures were better than ANY of the twenty-one earned by her rivals. If you had told me before that one of the two - Terra Promessa or Jenda's Agenda - would lose, the one I would have picked is this one because with lightly raced 3yo you never know. But not today. Jenda's Agenda ran to her figures and odds and was E-A-S-I-L-Y best. I had my ninth winner of the day.
Moments later they were in the gate for the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn. As I said in both my analysis and my video, "....when Bob Baffert ships to Arkansas you'd better take notice...." and here he had Mor Spirit who had been on the Kentucky Derby trail last spring. But after failing to produce in the Derby he'd been on the shelf. That's a long layoff, but Baffert (a) excels with long layoffs and (b) doesn't ship horses to "get a race into them." Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith was on board. I have to admit I questioned Smith's judgement when right from the opening bell he took Mor Spirit to the lead and was dueling on the front end. As they hit the far turn and spun for home Todd Pletcher's Madefromlucky made his move. The two stars dueled for a 16th of a mile and then Mor Spirit's class kicked in - should have known better than to doubt "Money Man Mike!' He drew off late to give me my tenth winner! WHOOO HOOOO!
I made my final set of bets, filmed a recap of these two winning races and headed for home. At a stop light I picked up my selection sheet and glanced at the final seven races. How many did I REALLY think I was going to win? I thought three was the very likely number; I wouldn't have bet them if I didn't think I had a good chance to win, but you can't win them all I realize. Four wins from the seven wold have to be considered an excellent end to the day. After dinner I sat down to watch the late races. The first was a claiming sprint from Santa Anita. Boldly True was the class of the field but was a distant fifth at 5/2. The 11th at Laurel was one of the most exciting races of the day. Matt King Coal had shipped in from New York for Linda Rice to wire a second level allowance. This event, the H.E. Johnson Memorial seemed just a click above an allowance contest like that. With one over the track and his speed, he could easily go coast to coast. Looking back at last spring's races I noted he'd set the pace in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at this nine furlong distance to the far turn. There were no Gr 1 winners in here to worry about. Right to the front and while not loose, he wasn't being pressured too much. But at the top of the lane another came to him and they went at it. It was obvious from the final furlong that neither of these will ever be mistaken as nine furlong specialists as they struggled to get the final furlong and better the other. First the outsider slammed into 'Matt and then as though to say, "hey, get off me" he veered out and slammed him right back. Bumping and driving to the wire - watch the video recap, the announcer's call says it all - it was a PHOTO FINISH! I thought I'd won, even more so on the slow motion replay, but hey, RIGHT HERE at Laurel I'd already LOST one of these! I clicked on the results tab and I was the winner!
When I opened the replay to record it for the video recap later I saw there was a steward's inquiry that could have taken me down, but fortunately it did not....whew! The 12th at Gulfstream saw my pick run a distance sixth after being checked and steadied throughout the stretch run - one lone win locally, sigh...... Next on the replay list was the 9th from the Fair Grounds. King's Ghost figured to be one of the post time favorites. The 5yo mare was 4/2-1-0 locally with the one off-the-board loss a tossout as it was in a stakes. This was a second level allowance. Top national rider Florent Geroux sealed the deal. Watching the replay I was surprised that I was NOT the 8/5 favorite who was chasing King's Ghost and the longshot leader. At the top of the lane Geroux let her go and she quickly spurted clear. The favorite came running, but too little, too late. The best news was that the payoff was a health $9.40 and I had TRIPLED the bet! My winning ticket is worth over $70! That helps immensely on the bottom line! Next on the lest was my BEST of the Day from Santa Anita. If you follow my adventures you know how much I LOVE those down-the-hill turf sprints. This race was a state-bred stakes down the mountain, the Irish O'Brien. The filly Enola Gray loomed a standout as she'd been down the hill twice, both in state-bred stakes and had drawn off in both. You could make the case that she'd be pressing a wicked pace and that might compromise her. But both of the wins down the hill had seen her pushing a hot pace and she drew off. They came flying out of the gate and she started a bit slow. So when she rushed up to engage the leaders AND the opening fraction was an insane :20.3 I thought she might indeed get cooked. But I could tell as they came off the unique right-handed turn and crossed over the course that she was WELL in hand. They crossed the main track as the fractions went up - they'd covered the first half mile in a sizzling :43.2 Enola Gray opened up easily and instead of the closers gaining on her, with each stride she opened up more and more distance on the field. IMPRESSIVE!
The only negative was that she'd been a short 2/5 at post time so my PRIME TIME play resulted in a small profit, but hey, it's win number 13! One of the races I felt most confident in of these late races was the Grade 2 Rebel from Oaklawn with Bob Baffert's American Anthem. The highly regarded colt had been scintillating in his debut and maybe even more so when going two turns in the Grade 3 Sham in his first start vs. winners. That afternoon he led into the stretch before being caught by the more experienced, Grade 1 winner Gormley. But he fought back and the two dueled to a head-bobbing photo finish, with Am Anthem 2nd. I thought today he'd prove easily best. But he was wide throughout and just didn't run - 9th at 8/5. Interestingly the winner was a Pletcher colt. A month ago Pletcher sent One Liner to Hot Springs off of two career sprint wins at Gulfstream - where I'd had him both times - to win the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes easily in one of the highest rated Derby preps so far on the Beyer scale. Today it was Malagacy, also a two-time sprint winner, who I'd had both times; making his two turn and stakes debut. He drew off like a serious Derby threat. The final race on the sheet was the Santa Anita feature, the Grade 1 Santa Margarita. I've had Vale Dori several times as she's run roughshod over the handicap division while Stellar Wind and Songbird progress slowly towards their 2017 debuts. But today the front running Vale Dori faced pace pressure from the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint queen, Finest City. I didn't truly think she could go the full nine furlongs, but she was clearly the best opponent I'd seen Vale Dori face and I thought there was a good chance that she could compomise the Baffert runner and open the door for an upset. So I only doubled the bet. Sure enough, right out of the gate the two hooked up. Spinning out of the turn and into the stretch they were half a dozen clear and drawing off from the field. One head up and one head down until they reached the furlong marker where Vale Dori drew off to win again! I had my fourteenth winner of the day - a 42% win rate and an excellent afternoon of racing!
March 18 Highlights - Part 2
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