March 15 - 19
Wednesday March 15
What a G-R-E-A-T start to the week's racing! As I've often said about Gulfstream specificially and racing in general, you never know where the next big win is going to come from. I could as easily be in a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup World Championship race or a Wednesday afternoon's third race, just another maiden special weight event on the card. And such it was today. The first bet came in the second, a starter optional claiming event where Too Clever By Half was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite as he looked to be long gone on the lead. But he was outsprinted to the front and was forced to track the leader. Took the lead in the lane but was overrun by a 50/1 longshot. Wow. Then came that maiden race. To quote my analysis, ".....Let's check to make sure...where are we? Gulfstream; and what time of year? Winter-Championship Meet. And this is what kind of race? Maiden Special; for what kind of runners? Three year olds. And, is there a Pletcher? Oh you bet there is...." I've said this before, but it bears repeating - the Gulfstream slogan for the year is "This is YOUR playground," but in fact it is Todd Pletcher's playground when it comes to either maiden special three year olds, or returning sophomores off a long break. Stay Fond had made her debut in a KEY MSW sprint at Monmouth when she finished third after dueling from gate to the stretch and TWO exited to win next time out. So off the long layoff, in a 3yo MSW that was all you need to know. But, add in Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez - duh. Even better, owner Michael Repole loves winning races and he most often teams with Pletcher and Velazquez - again, these were the connections for the daughter of champion Stay Thirsty (also owned by Repole, trained by Pletcher!). The stretch to a one-turn mile looked to be right up her alley. I was hopeful that I'd get a fair price at post time - she was listed at 7/2 in the program - because of the presence of Awestruck who had been a sharp third in her debut when well beaten by Pletcher's Nonna Bella. That one came back to win easily in allowance company and the runner-up in that maiden event, Salty, dominated last Sunday. But jockey Joe Bravo was a woeful 0-for-23 when riding for trainer George Weaver and this just looked like a very vulnerable favorite, especially with the Pletcher filly as the alternative. I actually wondered if I was wise to play Stay Thirsty because the crowd sent Awestruck off as the 1/5 favorite and immediately she went to the front and looked comfortable into the stretch. But then Velazquez asked his filly for run. The response was immediate and she collared the leader and then opened up to dominate the race! Well you can imagine with the 1/5 favorite taking the lion's share of the betting I was going to get a fair price, but check out this gift from the racing gods.....
That's right, $16.80 on a Pletcher 3yo at Gulfstream. WHAT!!!???? And I had it to the tune of over $125. So astounding. This was sure to be THE highlight of the week. Right back in the fifth I came back with a Bill Mott runner on the turf (remember, I met him last Saturday in Tampa!) - Tisbury. You could toss the last race in an off-the-turf event; if she ran back to either of the 80 Beyers she'd earned last summer she was your winner. She staked through the turn, took over and ran away as much the best.
The $6.40 payoff led to a return of over $30. For the day I finished 6/2-2-0 with a profit of over $80 to start the week!
Thursday March 16
The eleven race card on Thursday was slow to get going for me as I passed on the first three races and in the fourth I only had a minimum play - where the even money favorite, my pick, ran sixth. I doubled the bet in the fifth, a non-winners of three lifetime sprint at seven furlongs. The pick was Venezuelan Beauty who looked to be the speed of the race for jockey Jose Ortiz. Two angles pointed this one out for me: (1) he consistently ran Beyer figures in the 60s (which would win today) and (2) he drops out of a much better race today. I was right on point as Ortiz shot the favorite right to the front and he coasted home as M-U-C-H the best.
Cashed for nearly $20 on the 4/5 choice. Back to a minimum play in the sixth where Stella Street moved boldy into the stretch while fanning very wide; she re-rallied and just missed to be second at 9/5. The seventh was a maiden sprint for three-year-olds and up and I'm Thirsty had a pattern I'd seen trainer Jorge Navarro win with countless times. He frequently claims a horse; moves them up in class where they run evenly; then drop them back down and they win convincingly. I was initially a bit wary that none of the "go-to" riders he typically uses was up today but a ten-pound apprentice. But when the crowd really hammered him at the windows both in the WIN slot and in the multi-race wagers I upped the bet. RIGHT to the front and I had my second wire-to-wire winner on the afternoon.
The odds floated up to a "fair" 3/5 so I cashed for $32 on what had become a PRIME TIME play! The eighth was one of the few times that in a maiden event for three-year-olds that I went only the minimum on a Pletcher entry. Fact Check was stretching out to two turns after being moved up to second via DQ in a turf sprint last time out, so there was the distance question. And, Pletcher is typically less effective on the turf; and finally, being in post twelve I was not that confident that he'd run as well as most Pletcher sophomores. Should have known.....right to the front when crossing the field three wide into the first turn and took off to go wire to wire.
But I still was able to collect a very fair return as he was a co-2/1 favorite and paid $6, so I collected $15 on my third win of the day! I missed on a Pletcher runner in the tenth when I went against my better judgement. Joe Bravo had only eight wins from 132 mounts at the meet, but when riding for Todd Pletcher he'd won at a big 43% with a $2.77 ROI. So I tripled the bet on Donegal Moon who'd won the Grade 3 Pegasus last summer at Monmouth. Bravo - as fits his win percent - had him WAY too far back so his belated run into fourth was never a win threat. Still, three-for-six on the days with another profitable afternoon went into the books!
Friday March 17
I spent a good deal of time yesterday and today handicapping for tomorrow's big adventure to the races, but I kept an eye on the Gulfstream program today as I had another half dozen selections. I was off the board in the first two when Shere Kahn was fifth in the 2nd at 9/5 and Stormin Maclean was 4th at 2/1 in a Maiden Special for 3yo as a first timer on the turf. In the sixth I thought that Flying To Honor appeared like a standout to me despite the fact that he was running in a $16K maiden claimer where typically it's hard to find a solid play. Flying To Honor was dropping out of MSW company, the most powerful drop in racing. He also had been in post ten of a full field of fourteen runners; AND he had pressed a very quick pace for half a mile before caving. The barn was 24% with 2nd time maidens, 33% with MSW to MC moves and a huge 43% with "blinkers off." But the biggest, eye-catching stat was the barns best-of-30 bullet move in a sizzling :59.3 for five furlongs. He was the DRF BEST of the day as well. I tripled the bet. He broke right on top and coasted wire-to-wire well never being threatened!
I cashed for nearly $30 and suddenly I was in the black for the day! Whooo hoooo. In the eighth, a turf event there looked to be a TON of speed and that set the table perfectly for closer Quiet Force. I was concerned when TWO runners, both front runners, scratched. But both GP on-air handicappers picked Quiet Force and they agreed with my feeling that there was still enough speed to set up my pick's late run. But instead the eventual winner coasted on the easiest of leads and went wire to wire. I ran third at 9/5. My next pick was scheduled to be in the tenth. But as I watched the live feed I was taken by the fact that one of the runners in the 9th was being hammered at the windows. I checked my analysis and I had put Stella Performance on top with this comment, ".....provokes mild interest off a troubled debut when third and getting a rider switch to Ortiz. But the barn's 21/0-2-3 record is scary bad......" Hmmmm. The crowd is so confident in spite of the barn's record - so I checked the multi-race payoffs. Again, the clear, heavy favorite. I just had "that feeling" and so I opened my wagering window and place a "bonus bet" of $10 to WIN on Stella Performance. Just like the first winner on the day, Stella Performance went right to the front, was clear on an easy lead and was a decisive winner! NICE PLAY Mr. Mark!
In the finale of my betting selections, Defer Heaven SHOULD be a decisive winner as well. This guy was the very definition of a "Horse-for-the-Course" with SIX wins from eight starts locally, and one of them, a start in the Sir Shackleton Handicap on Florida Derby Day last spring was an obvious race over his head. But in his most recent he'd been off form. Trainer Jorge Navarro put a the same ten pound apprentice up that had won for him yesterday and I was certain he'd give instructions to the bug boy to "get in front and hang on!" Add all this in and then factor in that Defer Heaven looked to be the ONLY speed of the race. Sure enough, Defer Heaven EXPLODED out of the gate was quickly two or three lengths in front within the first couple of jumps; right to the front and went wire to wire! My third win of the day and a third consecutive day of profit.
The highlight racing card today was at Oaklawn where over $2 million in purses was on the line on their "Arkansas Derby Preview" card. I was particularly interested because we have booked a long weekend getaway there for April 12-16. I had a great day at the races on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon. Check out the stories in the individual journal by clicking
Sunday March 19
I felt "comfortable" with my selections on the day. I say this because many times, especially after a good day of handicapping ON TRACK on a Saturday I have a disappointing day on Sunday. But unlike many times when I'm "concerned" about "losing back" some of my winnings, I felt "good" about today's picks. I made my online plays via xpressbet.com early in the day and then Kim and I went to see "Beauty and the Beast" at the theaters. The film was excellent, just spectacular. And I read later in the day that the film generated over $170 million in revenue over the weekend - the best opening EVER for a March film. The star was Emma Watson who grew up in the Harry Potter films, and she was wonderful. After dinner I got online to check the results for the day. I missed on the first five at odds of 3/5, 6/5, 3/1, 9/5 and 7/2 before finally scoring in the last bet of the day on Girl Town Cat. This filly was lightly raced and had last been seen winning at Saratoga going nine furlongs last summer. I thought this one-turn mile would be a good fit for a comeback race, and I particularly liked the three near-bullet works trainer Kirarn McLaughlin had put into her in preparation for today. The outside draw in post eight would enable her to comfortably track the leaders I thought. But right away as they broke from the gate I could sense trouble. While the inside four or five were running comfortably, it appeared that my rider was having to work on her to just keep within range. Not a good feeling to have the 7/5 favorite already being asked before they hit the far turn! But as the field turned for home all but two of the others had dropped out and it looked like Girl Town Cat was now getting warmed to the task. At the sixteenth pole she collared the leader and edged clear late.
The $4.80 payoff allowed me to get back nearly half of today's investments. Despite the 1-win day I still had a great week of racing:
The eleven race card on Thursday was slow to get going for me as I passed on the first three races and in the fourth I only had a minimum play - where the even money favorite, my pick, ran sixth. I doubled the bet in the fifth, a non-winners of three lifetime sprint at seven furlongs. The pick was Venezuelan Beauty who looked to be the speed of the race for jockey Jose Ortiz. Two angles pointed this one out for me: (1) he consistently ran Beyer figures in the 60s (which would win today) and (2) he drops out of a much better race today. I was right on point as Ortiz shot the favorite right to the front and he coasted home as M-U-C-H the best.
Cashed for nearly $20 on the 4/5 choice. Back to a minimum play in the sixth where Stella Street moved boldy into the stretch while fanning very wide; she re-rallied and just missed to be second at 9/5. The seventh was a maiden sprint for three-year-olds and up and I'm Thirsty had a pattern I'd seen trainer Jorge Navarro win with countless times. He frequently claims a horse; moves them up in class where they run evenly; then drop them back down and they win convincingly. I was initially a bit wary that none of the "go-to" riders he typically uses was up today but a ten-pound apprentice. But when the crowd really hammered him at the windows both in the WIN slot and in the multi-race wagers I upped the bet. RIGHT to the front and I had my second wire-to-wire winner on the afternoon.
The odds floated up to a "fair" 3/5 so I cashed for $32 on what had become a PRIME TIME play! The eighth was one of the few times that in a maiden event for three-year-olds that I went only the minimum on a Pletcher entry. Fact Check was stretching out to two turns after being moved up to second via DQ in a turf sprint last time out, so there was the distance question. And, Pletcher is typically less effective on the turf; and finally, being in post twelve I was not that confident that he'd run as well as most Pletcher sophomores. Should have known.....right to the front when crossing the field three wide into the first turn and took off to go wire to wire.
But I still was able to collect a very fair return as he was a co-2/1 favorite and paid $6, so I collected $15 on my third win of the day! I missed on a Pletcher runner in the tenth when I went against my better judgement. Joe Bravo had only eight wins from 132 mounts at the meet, but when riding for Todd Pletcher he'd won at a big 43% with a $2.77 ROI. So I tripled the bet on Donegal Moon who'd won the Grade 3 Pegasus last summer at Monmouth. Bravo - as fits his win percent - had him WAY too far back so his belated run into fourth was never a win threat. Still, three-for-six on the days with another profitable afternoon went into the books!
Friday March 17
I spent a good deal of time yesterday and today handicapping for tomorrow's big adventure to the races, but I kept an eye on the Gulfstream program today as I had another half dozen selections. I was off the board in the first two when Shere Kahn was fifth in the 2nd at 9/5 and Stormin Maclean was 4th at 2/1 in a Maiden Special for 3yo as a first timer on the turf. In the sixth I thought that Flying To Honor appeared like a standout to me despite the fact that he was running in a $16K maiden claimer where typically it's hard to find a solid play. Flying To Honor was dropping out of MSW company, the most powerful drop in racing. He also had been in post ten of a full field of fourteen runners; AND he had pressed a very quick pace for half a mile before caving. The barn was 24% with 2nd time maidens, 33% with MSW to MC moves and a huge 43% with "blinkers off." But the biggest, eye-catching stat was the barns best-of-30 bullet move in a sizzling :59.3 for five furlongs. He was the DRF BEST of the day as well. I tripled the bet. He broke right on top and coasted wire-to-wire well never being threatened!
I cashed for nearly $30 and suddenly I was in the black for the day! Whooo hoooo. In the eighth, a turf event there looked to be a TON of speed and that set the table perfectly for closer Quiet Force. I was concerned when TWO runners, both front runners, scratched. But both GP on-air handicappers picked Quiet Force and they agreed with my feeling that there was still enough speed to set up my pick's late run. But instead the eventual winner coasted on the easiest of leads and went wire to wire. I ran third at 9/5. My next pick was scheduled to be in the tenth. But as I watched the live feed I was taken by the fact that one of the runners in the 9th was being hammered at the windows. I checked my analysis and I had put Stella Performance on top with this comment, ".....provokes mild interest off a troubled debut when third and getting a rider switch to Ortiz. But the barn's 21/0-2-3 record is scary bad......" Hmmmm. The crowd is so confident in spite of the barn's record - so I checked the multi-race payoffs. Again, the clear, heavy favorite. I just had "that feeling" and so I opened my wagering window and place a "bonus bet" of $10 to WIN on Stella Performance. Just like the first winner on the day, Stella Performance went right to the front, was clear on an easy lead and was a decisive winner! NICE PLAY Mr. Mark!
In the finale of my betting selections, Defer Heaven SHOULD be a decisive winner as well. This guy was the very definition of a "Horse-for-the-Course" with SIX wins from eight starts locally, and one of them, a start in the Sir Shackleton Handicap on Florida Derby Day last spring was an obvious race over his head. But in his most recent he'd been off form. Trainer Jorge Navarro put a the same ten pound apprentice up that had won for him yesterday and I was certain he'd give instructions to the bug boy to "get in front and hang on!" Add all this in and then factor in that Defer Heaven looked to be the ONLY speed of the race. Sure enough, Defer Heaven EXPLODED out of the gate was quickly two or three lengths in front within the first couple of jumps; right to the front and went wire to wire! My third win of the day and a third consecutive day of profit.
The highlight racing card today was at Oaklawn where over $2 million in purses was on the line on their "Arkansas Derby Preview" card. I was particularly interested because we have booked a long weekend getaway there for April 12-16. I had a great day at the races on a gorgeous Saturday afternoon. Check out the stories in the individual journal by clicking
March 18th Highlights - Part 1
March 18th Highlights - Part 2
March 18th Highlights - Part 2
Sunday March 19
I felt "comfortable" with my selections on the day. I say this because many times, especially after a good day of handicapping ON TRACK on a Saturday I have a disappointing day on Sunday. But unlike many times when I'm "concerned" about "losing back" some of my winnings, I felt "good" about today's picks. I made my online plays via xpressbet.com early in the day and then Kim and I went to see "Beauty and the Beast" at the theaters. The film was excellent, just spectacular. And I read later in the day that the film generated over $170 million in revenue over the weekend - the best opening EVER for a March film. The star was Emma Watson who grew up in the Harry Potter films, and she was wonderful. After dinner I got online to check the results for the day. I missed on the first five at odds of 3/5, 6/5, 3/1, 9/5 and 7/2 before finally scoring in the last bet of the day on Girl Town Cat. This filly was lightly raced and had last been seen winning at Saratoga going nine furlongs last summer. I thought this one-turn mile would be a good fit for a comeback race, and I particularly liked the three near-bullet works trainer Kirarn McLaughlin had put into her in preparation for today. The outside draw in post eight would enable her to comfortably track the leaders I thought. But right away as they broke from the gate I could sense trouble. While the inside four or five were running comfortably, it appeared that my rider was having to work on her to just keep within range. Not a good feeling to have the 7/5 favorite already being asked before they hit the far turn! But as the field turned for home all but two of the others had dropped out and it looked like Girl Town Cat was now getting warmed to the task. At the sixteenth pole she collared the leader and edged clear late.
The $4.80 payoff allowed me to get back nearly half of today's investments. Despite the 1-win day I still had a great week of racing:
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