Week 13

February 22 - 26

"One-A-Day" Week

Well, at least that's the theme for the week.  After back-to-back spectacular results, it seems like we've returned to reality this week.  I wasn't surprised to only cash on one ticket on Wednesday as it was pouring down rain throughout the day which (a) took all the turf races off the inner course and (b) caused a laundry list of scratches for the entire day's racing card.  Initially I had five selections from the eleven race card, two of which were on the turf.  When both of those were washed off I was left with three main track selections, but my pick in the fifth also scratched, so I had but two "live" races.  In the second it looked to me like L'il Meatball was clearly the one to beat - IF and only if you were willing to forgive the dismal effort he put forth at this level two races back.  I was considering that he was coming back that afternoon on a quick two weeks rest.  At the bottom of his past performances I thought it noteworthy that as a two-year-old he'd been a stakes winner.  He was second off the claim for Jorge Navarro after being raised up in class first off the claim.  Today he looked like his "old self" and took off in mid-stretch to draw away for an easy score.  

The crowd wasn't buying the bad race either as he was sent off as the 4/5 favorite - meaning I'd cash for less than $10 on my minimum play.  In the tenth, Todd Pletcher's Heckuvashot was sent off as the 3/2 favorite, but he gave way on the far turn after pressing the pace three wide going two turns.

Thursday's card was "back to normal" as we were on both the turf and main track.  But my horses did not perform to my expectations.  Quant was a runner-up in the second going nine furlongs on the turf in a 3-way photo (the winner was 15/1).  In the 6th Alsinaafy came up empty after a perfect trip into the stretch and faded to sixth at 4/5.  In the seventh it looked to me like a two-horse race between Veblen Good and Legendofthekitten.  I took the former who again had a perfect trip.  Midway on the turn when I thought the rider should have made his move he sat confidently waiting for the top of the lane, meanwhile the rider for 'Legend made his move, swooped by and was by my pick into the lane.  Never could make up the difference - 2nd at 8/5.  In the eighth Northern was a solid pick in a 3yo MSW event.  He'd been allowed to duel through wicked splits last time out as a short-priced favorite, and my pick.  So today I knew his new rider wouldn't make that mistake.  Instead he was "wrangled back" as the announcer described it to sit mid-pack and never made up any ground....fourth at 3/2.  Finally in the 11th and final race Olimpico set the pace at 6/1 to midway on the turn before fading to 10th.  An 0-for day :(

Friday we were in Orlando to visit our most adorable grandson, Oliver (and his parents).  I made my bets before we made the drive and then watched the replays later in the evening.  Keeping with the them of the week I only scored once - in the fifth of the day.  I did have a second and three thirds from my other races, but only Pawley's Express produced a positive result.  He pressed the pace three-wide to the stretch and then drew off as much the best despite coming off a layoff and going the difficult distance of seven furlongs.  

He was the even money favorite in this entry allowance spot, so my double investment only returned a little over $20.  Saturday I again made my bets in the morning and then enjoyed the day with the family.  I particularly enjoyed our afternoon adventure to Walt Disney World and "Disney Springs."  One stop we made was in the "Chapeau Shop" where I found my Florida Derby hat!  

Next Saturday is Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream where the three-year-olds pointing for the Florida Derby and Gulfstream Park Oaks get their final warm-ups.  Well, today was that same kind of program in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds where it was Risen Star Day - sophomores here were getting their final tune-ups in anticipation of the Louisiana Derby and Fair Grounds Oaks.  But the racing action for today actually started while we were sleeping!  Yes, you read that right, WHILE WE WERE SLEEPING!  Friday night while looking through racing news I read an article about the Australian super-mare Winx who was shooting for her fifteenth consecutive victory.  That start was scheduled to come at Randwick International Racecourse in the Group 1 Chipping North Stakes going a mile on the turf.  When I saw that this race was "today" I went into xpressbet and looked around until I could find the program, then made my "BEST BET" investment before heading to bed.  Saturday morning, before placing the bets for this afternoon's racing action at both the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream I pulled up the replay.  Winx was patiently handled while being confidently ridden in mid-pack until the field rounded the course into the "straight" as it's called internationally.  The rider barely moved his hands and the response was instantaneous as she blew by handily.  

A heavily favored 1/5 chalk, I didn't make much money, but enjoyed "being right" with a prime time investment to start the day!  The rest of the day, well, much like the previous three days unfortunately.  In the second Diplomatic Affair rallied through the stretch to be second at 6/5.  And in Gulfstream's fifth I was second, AGAIN, after pressing the pace to the turn and taking over the lead - but outfinished late.  At the Fair Grounds I scored with my first bet there when Tiznoble wired the field, holding on by a desperate nose.  There was some bumping in the stretch and it would not have been an unreasonable call if the stewards had taken her number down, but luckily for me it stayed up and I cashed for nearly $30.  Immediately after watching this race I flipped over to the Gulfstream replays and watched the sixth from So Fla - the Texas Glitter Stakes, the first of two five furlong turf sprints with an added money purse.  I thought that Derek's Smile looked like a promising upset candidate - listed at 5/1 in the program.  But when I pulled up the replay with the final post-time odds he was the prohibitive even money favorite.  Just as I'd expected he went right to the front and wired the field in hand.  The payoff of $4.20 meant I'd at least crack the $10 mark on my payout, but just barely.  I got one more win later at the Fair Grounds, but the remainder of the races - including all of them at Gulfstream - was more of the rest of the week's kind of results - 2nd at 4/5 in the Colonel Power Stakes at the FG, fourth at 7/2 in the 9th at GP, 2nd in the GP tenth at 4/1 in a turf second allowance event; 2nd at a big 9/1 - so close - in the Grade 3 Mineshaft at the Fair Grounds when International Star was FLYING up the rail;  third at 3/2 in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra for 3yo fillies in New Orleans and a just-miss 2nd in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint when Mind Your Biscuits, who'd last out won the Grade 1 Malibu, rallied from what I thought was too far off the pace of the what turned out to be the lone front runner, Unified.  He'd been in the #1 hole and I thought would have company up front, but the rider quickly established the lead and unfortunately everyone let him go.  Photo finish but I knew I'd missed.  The lone win came in the Daisy Devine at the Fair Grounds when Believe In Bertie set a new course record going wire to wire as the 3/5 favorite.

The four wins (counting the Australia early-morning win) was better than the single wins to date, but far below what normally I get from my handicapping.

Sunday, the final day of racing for the week had five chances to get some wins.  Again I made the bets in the morning and then after we drove home from Orlando I watched the replays.  I thought just maybe I'd get back into a multiple win day when I scored with Todd Pletcher's Spice Lady in the second, a MSW for three-year-olds.  After breaking slowly jockey John Velazquez hustled her up three wide to catch the leaders mid-way on the turn and then edged away in a solid effort.

I'd doubled the bet so the $4.60 payoff got me back nearly $25 to start the day.  But that was it for the day.  Third at 6/1 in the next race, then fifth at a big 8/1 price.  Closed the day and the week with back to back second place finishes as the favorite - 4/5 in the 11th with a minimum bet and then in what has become a bothersome trend to the meet, normally top riding Javier Castellano again did not give his horse the best of opportunities when he waited way to long to move in a 3yo maiden claiming event on the turf.  This was complicated by the fact that despite being in a short five horse field with THREE of them across the track heading into the turn he got into trouble and had to check and steady his mount, losing all momentum.  When finally getting clear it was too little, too late when 2nd at 2/1 on the board.  Not the best of weeks - but the month was full of highlights and sure enjoyed seeing the little man in Orlando!

Week 12

February 15 - 19

Napa Valley Weekend

The wonder of today's racing world where you do NOT have to go out and purchase the Daily Racing Form nor actually be AT the races to play them!  This weekend Kim and I were off to Napa Valley for a five day, four night adventure......

Click HERE to visit our Napa Valley webpage

I've put in a key photo from each day in this week's journals, but there was a LOT to the extended visit.  Still, this is my racing adventures journal, so that's the focus here.  With the new age of racing I was able to continue my Gulfstream 2016-17 Project by handicapping each and every live race offered, despite being in a bed & breakfast in Northern California AND had time to watch all the replays each evening.  How did the week turn out.......

That's the short version, let's take a peak at the day-by-day results......

Wednesday February 15

Today was spent largely packing and making final preparations for tomorrow's early morning, cross-country flight to San Francisco.  But I'd gone through the card yesterday and so I was able to place my bets and watch the races during the afternoon while I was preparing for the trip.  In the 2nd we were going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf in a non-winners of two lifetime event.  Appa had shown some ability in his previous starts and was lightly raced.  I thought it curious that the connections moved him UP in class today.  He stalked the pace to the turn, rallied five-wide into the stretch and swooped to the front to draw off late.  The price was an excellent 5/1, but as he'd gone by the leaders in mid-stretch one of them looked to have taken up and I thought "this might be a problem."  Appa was clearly all alone at the wire, but did he interfere with the one horse who ran evenly to the wire.  Sure enough the INQUIRY and OBJECTION lights came on before it could go official.  The stewards took a look and finally determined that the problem was actually caused by the tiring front runner who finished behind the horse that was bothered - I win!  

Wish I'd invested more than the minimum, but the $12.40 payout meant I'd start the week with an additional $31 in my bankroll!  WHOOO HOOO!  Passed the third and in the 4th Eminent Force was FLYING late to be a best-of-the-rest 2nd at 2/1.  I really thought Eminent Force was the winner on the far turn after the front-runner had set a pace of :22-:45-1:08 - but he kept on going to the wire.  In the fifth my original plan was to play the minimum on Bourbon City because his "winning form" had come on the turf and this was a maiden claiming sprint on the dirt.  Was this a set-up for a turf race to come or was he well meant?  One thing was for sure, I liked my pick better than those of the DRF analyst who were a first time starter for an 0-for-26 rider and an 8x maiden with an 0-for-28 rider for an 0-for-19 barn.  When Bourbon City was being hammered at the windows I doubled my minimum play and watched he blow by in mid-stretch to win going away!  

The short $2.80 payoff was ok as I earned nearly $15 back on win #2 for the day.  The sixth was a Maiden Special for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs.  You know the drill - is there a Todd Pletcher?  You betcha, #3 Diamond Jim.  But here's the deal, unlike most Gulfstream 3yo MSW runners for Pletcher Diamond Jim had missed in a very ugly debut.  My thinking was that (a) this would darken his form and if other handicappers were unwilling to forgive that I'd be getting a more than fair price on a Pletcher 3yo MSW runner here at Gulfstream.  Then the winner that day was another Pletcher sophomore, Malagacy who'd run away with his next start as an ultra-impressive performance.  AND the third place runner had also returned to score.  The DRF's Mike Welsch made mention that Diamond Jim had been working in company with Malagacy and other Pletcher known commodities and had looked good.  This all sounded excellent to me so I doubled the bet.  I was against the Chad Brown first time starter who was the program favorite.  But in the early betting the Brown runner, Switzerland, was 1-5.  Am I missing something?  When a first timer is getting pounded like that it's time to pay attention.  So much so that I cancelled the bet and put it on Switzerland.  But the longer I sat there the more uncomfortable I was.  What if the Pletcher horse DID run well and score at a price?  I'd never forgive myself.  Then I noted that Gulfstream's analyst Ron Nicoletti not only put Diamond Jim on top, but made him his "BEST" of the day.  Cancelled the bet again and re-bet Diamond Jim.  Right to the front and never looked back!  And check the price..... 

Oh that's right baby, paid over $8 and I cashed for over $40!  Sometimes I'm so smart I could just jump back and kiss myself!  Incidently, the Brown colt, second best as the short-priced favorite :)  I passed the 7th; my pick scratched out of the eighth and so I was left with one last selection in the 9th.  This was my "best" of the day.  It was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds and Pletcher sent out Ghalia who had won for me most impressively earlier in the meet.  Right back I figured.  The crowd agreed and sent her off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.  Right to the front and cruised as much the best!  

For the day, a sparkling 4-for-5 with a second place finish and a profit of over $60!  WOW I'm having a good month!

Thursday February 16

Travel Day To Napa Valley

Because I knew we'd be in the air most of the day and occupied during the evening I made my bets before we left for the airport AND downloaded the Friday card to look at on the plane.  We landed in San Francisco about 1:30 PST and were on the road with our luggage and rental car at a little before 3 pm.  We arrived in Calistoga at the Wine Way Inn Bed & Breakfast where Kim's twin sister Karrie and her husband Randy were waiting for us.  A glass of California Rose on the front porch welcomed us (above).  After dinner we retired to our room where it was only about 9 pm, but that was midnight to our bodies and I watched the replays of the four races I'd made investments in.  In the third it was a maiden special for sophomore fillies.  Seemed too obvious that Florida Fabulous was the one to beat.  She'd drawn a huge $400K sales bid, but I thought it interesting that after all that money she was sent to local conditioner David Fawkes.  The bad news was he was not winning much here, but the good news was he was 32% with debut runners.  Right to the front and never really asked to produce her best throughout the entire one-turn mile journey.  Doubled the bet on the 1-2 favorite.

The fifth was a claiming event for three-year-olds and none really appealed; still Alsterone had been visually impressive enough in his MC win to earn a minimum bet.  Sixth at 2/1.  The sixth was the race I felt most confident in.  It was a maiden claiming sprint going five furlongs on the turf - not typically my specialty - but Cool had pressed a :21.1 and :43.3 half in her previous when a best of the rest second.  She'd have no problem going to the front and slowing it down under Paco Lopez I thought.  Instead she was outhustled to the lead and that one wired the field as Cool ran evenly to be third as the 6/5 favorite.  The final race of the day was a no conditions allowance event on the turf.  As I wrote in my analysis, easily anyone of half a dozen would have been no surprise.  A strong and typical Gulfstream event.  But give it's Gulfstream the fact that Todd Pletcher sent out American Patriot off a layoff and dropping out of four straight graded tries (note - he'd won the Gr 3 Kent at Delaware last summer as my choice!), that seemed a good enough edge to me.  Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez had the newly turned four-year-old in mid-pack position to the turn.  He accelerated while traveling four-wide and picking off horses to collar the leaders in mid-stretch; then edged clear late to WIN!  And the best part - check the price.......

That's right - over nine dollars and I cashed for almost $50 to finish the day a super 2-for-4 with a profit of over $20.  Second winning day in a row!

Friday February 17

Peju & Inglenook Winery Tours

Despite the rainy conditions in Northern California - which is MOST unusual (figures right?) we had a great day.  In fact Kim and I had talked ahead of time that we didn't mind the rain or chill at all coming from mid-80s and sunshine here....a nice change of pace.  The gourmet breakfast was delightful, the wines were great, and the tours were excellent.  Couldn't ask for a better day - except at the races.  I had six selections on the day....in the opener I had the perfect trip with the 4/5 favorite right off the 15/1 leader.  Made a smooth move to challenge, couldn't get by - 2nd.  In the third I was third at even money; in the fifth I was even money again, stalked a slow pace set by a 16/1 front runner; caught him, but was caught on the wire, 2nd again.  n the sixth I track in third as the 6/5 favorite, but wasn't good enough to win, 2nd, AGAIN.  In the 7th Paco Lopez sat in the back too long at even money behind a slow pace and closed with a rush to be SECOND AGAIN.  Closed the day when fourth when weakening at 7/2.

Saturday February 18

Visit to Pleasanton

We had such a good time today visiting our friends from the 2015 Fall Leaves Cruise, Gary and Claudia Wanlin.  They lived about 1 1/2 hours north west of us and we drove to meet them and then go out to lunch and go to a couple local, smaller wineries.  We arrived back in Calistoga about 7:30 and went out for a late dinner with Karrie and Randy and then again, I was able to check the replays before working on my Napa Valley Journal.  A much better day than Friday to be sure!  One of the reasons that this weekend adventure came about was because when I looked ahead at the winter I saw on our calendar that this was the ONLY weekend from December through April where there was not only any big local races at Gulfstream, but there was no home hockey games.  With the day off on Monday for Kim it was the perfect weekend to head out of town.  But this past week I noted that while there was only a single stakes event at Gulfstream there were six at their sister track, Laurel in Maryland.  So I handicapped both cards.  I ran second in BOTH the first two races on my sheet - that makes makes SIX runner-up finishes in my last eight picks.  WOW.  In the Grade 2 Royal Delta it was one of those "great handicapping, but no reward" kind of things.  I did not and have never liked the favorite, Curlin's Approval.  I was able to pick the upset winner two back but she got me last time on Pegasus World Cup Day.  Today I thought she was vulnerable around two turns and went with Mo Green.  Listed at 6/1 in the program she was a HUGE 13/1 at post time and made a bid into the stretch, but was no match for the favorite.  In Laurel's third I also got a good price on Spring Quality who was 2nd best at 9/2.  The fifth at Gulfstream was a mile and a sixteenth claiming event and it looked like Jorge Navarro's Over The Limit would be hard to deny.  But still it was a cheap claiming event so I went with the minimum play.  He tracked an 80/1 longshot to the turn, ran by to open up and then held on through the short run to the first finish line.

Finally, back in the winner's circle!  Right back in the sixth at Gulfstream where Little United was the tepid 9/5 favorite in a three-year-old claiming sprint.  Looked to be the lone speed on the rail for Paco Lopez.  I was a bit concerned that both of her previous wins had been at GPW, so I kept the investment to a minimum.  Broke a step slowly, but quickly got to the front and was long gone.  I cashed my second minimum bet ticket for almost $15.

I thought for sure I had the winner in the fifth at Laurel in the Maryland Racing Media Stakes when Wait Your Turn was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  But from the get-go she was very wide.  I wasn't too concerned because I'd rather the best horse was in the clear than in traffic.  But when finally asked on the turn she had no response and was a non-threatening fifth.  One of the best things about the Championship Meet at Gulfstream is the three-year-old maiden special races where they are typically loaded with future stars and it was two of these that made the difference in the day for me.  The first was up next, the seventh - a three-year-old turf raced going 8 1/2 furlongs.  Any of at least half a dozen would have been no surprise, but with it being on the grass HERE I looked for the Chad Brown runner.  And this winter I've gotten a fair price more than once when I went AGAINST normally top rider Javier Castellano who seems just a click off this year.  So when I saw Joel Rosario on Brown's Bricks and Mortar at 5/1 in the program I thought I might have a chance at a price score.  Rosario rode the colt patiently to the far turn, then asked for his best.  'Bricks accelerated five wide past horses, caught the favorite at the top of the stretch and drove to the wire.  The price - oh, yes, a good $14.00 payoff!

With the double investment I would cash for an even $70!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I picked up first - and is it turned out ONLY - win at Laurel in their Miracle Wood Stakes for three-year-old colts.  O Dionysus had been the 4/5 favorite last time out at seven furlongs against several of these but had trouble and ran out of ground.  Today the race was at a one-turn mile and it seemed to me a clean trip and the longer distance was ideal.  He was confidently handled to the turn, allowed to run into the stretch and drew off handily as MUCH the best!

Off the board in Gulfstream's eighth when Gold Lace was 6th at 9/2 - minimum play.  I thought, as did the crowd, that Horse-for-the-Course Page McKenney would win the John B. Campbell at nine furlongs, but after having a dream trip and bursting to the front and clear of the field into the lane, the 3/5 front runner was no match to a $47 winner who blew by from the pack of the pack in deep stretch.  Second, again.  The second of those Gulfstream MSW events was next in the ninth.  This was a one-turn mile event for sophomores and yes, it was time for a Todd Pletcher runner.  It's rare that his 3yo starters don't win but I reasoned that why Patch was 6/1 in his debut was that the six furlong was too short, and maybe he's wasn't quite primed for his best.  The winner returned to be a good 4th in the Grade 2 Swale so it appeared this had been a strong group.  A bullet work and then a near-bullet work said today he WAS ready.  Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez who's been on most of Pletcher's winning runners sealed the deal.  He stalked a 50/1 front runner into the stretch - moved three wide to the front, wore him down and drew off through the final sixteenth.  Here's what made the win even more special - (a) the price was a generous $8.20 and (b) I TRIPLED THE BET!

I was cashing for more than $60!  In the first of the two graded events at Laurel By The Moon was clear in the stretch at 7/5 but was caught late - 2nd.  In my GP Best Bet Trombelaine was confidently handled while tracking a 20/1 front runner going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Had all the momentum and came to the leader......couldn't get by, 2nd.  In the second graded event at Laurel, the Gr 3 General George it looked clearly like a two horse race - I ran 2nd at even money behind the 5/2 second choice.  And finally I was 7th in the Gulfstream finale.  When the replays were over I knew I'd won some races, but it seemed to me without adding up the numbers that it was probably a little less than even on the profit line and probably a little less than my typical 30% and change winners.  But no - I finished 5-for-14 which was over 35% and I made a clear profit of nearly $40!

Sunday February 19

Highlight Of Napa Valley - "The Castle" Visit

Today it was a drizzling day but that couldn't dampen the fact that we were visiting the iconic Castello di Amorosa, nicknamed "The Castle."  We took several photos from up on the ramparts and then enjoyed six different wines that were very good - one that was nearly $100 a bottle and another that was about $10 less.  In the afternoon the four of us went to another very high end winery, Ledson, and had a private tasting in one of the upstairs rooms.  Really cool.  That evening back at the Bed and Breakfast there was a young couple and I watched the race replays while the others began a game of "Men are from Mars, Women from Venus" which I joined in later - good times with the six of us on our last night evening there.  But the races.......I had six selections on Sunday, the first of which was in the opener - a non-winners of two allowance on the turf.  Conquest Babyaga was lightly raced and stakes placed for Chad Brown.  Need I tell you more?  She was off slowly and I was concerned as she sat near the back through moderate pace being controlled by the 2/1 second choice.  But on the turn she opened up and quickly inhaled the field and drew off as much the best.

Cashed for nearly twenty dollars on my first winner of the day!  My next selection was in the fourth, a claiming event going six furlongs.  The program favorite looked suspicious to me because while he'd just had a five-out-of-six winning streak snapped, all those wins came against summer rivals - it's a different ball game here over the winter months.  Conversely, Flash Jak was third at this distance last out at this level but had MUCH stronger speed figures than the favorite.  Just "felt right" to me.  Paco Lopez stalked the leader and then as only Paco can do, he glided to the lead knowing he was on MUCH the best runner.  As described at Monmouth by the announcer, he took a "condescending look" back for the competition and there was none.  Flash Jak drew off easily under a hand ride without being asked.

And even better, he was sent off at better than 2/1 so my double investment returned well over $30 on my second win from as many races!  In the sixth, a MSW on the turf Chad Brown's Dhukhr was bet down from 6/1 program odds to 3/1 at post time.  Tracked a hot pace, rallied mid-race, then nothing - 5th.  The seventh was another MSW, this one for sophomores on the turf.  As I put it in my analysis, ".....the most obvious selection on the Sunday card is here in Christophe Clement's Dover Cliffs...."  The colt debuted six weeks ago, stalked the pace, dueled the length of the stretch and lost a head bob while earning a huge 82 Beyer figure.  Rider switch from Joe Bravo to Joel Rosario sealed the deal for me.  Apparently for the crowd as well as he was sent off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.  Pressed an 8/1 frontrunner to the stretch then edged away late.  I tripled the bet to score my third winner of the day.

Blank Slate ran evenly at 5/2 to be 5th in the 10th and then the big score of the day - and another for the week's collection came in the day's finale.....the 12th was a 3-lifetime claiming event on the turf.  I looked up and down the past performances and then I saw it.......

See it?  Three back Par was in for a $25K 2L tag and ran a sharp second; dropped in for a $16K tag and won off handily.  Last out, bumped up to a $25K 3L tag, ran reasonably well....today drops in for a $16K 3L tag.  Bonus points that top jockey Luis Saez sticks.  He dueled with the 3/2 favorite from the first turn to the stretch....the length of the lane they were one head up and one head down but he refused to give in......

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER!  And as the caption tells you - the price was a very generous $11.40 leading to a payout of nearly $60!  Closed the day with four wins from six picks and made $65 for the day.  What a great way to end the week!  Speaking of, the totals for the week.....

35 Selections / 15 WINS (43%) and a profit of $130.50

Two Week Totals

63 Selections / 29 WINS (46%) and a profit of $262.50

How hard is this game?  :)

Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day

Saturday February 11

I had high hopes for the day as I arrived at Gulfstream on a spectacular Saturday afternoon in mid-winter with temperatures in the low 70s and a crystal blue sky overhead.  After starting the week with a sensational 8-for-13 handicapping record (with four seconds!), I decided to film a brief recap of each of those selections to put as a prelude to my day's recap video (see Part 1 below).  I didn't have a selection live until the third race but I did have two races from other tracks.  In the opener on the Tampa Festival Preview card - which featured three graded stakes to be used as stepping stones towards Tampa Bay Derby Day in mid March (when I will be there!) - it was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds and it appeared Todd Pletcher's Alum would be the post time favorite.  He was overbet to 3/5 considering he'd won his maiden breaker at "Calderstream" prior to the Championship Meet opening, but I did support him.  He struggled to be within range and it was just a late surge that got him second money.  The opener at Aqueduct was a MSW going two turns at one mile and seventy yards for three-year-olds.  I figured that Duquense Whistle would be bet heavily despite the 3/1 program odds because anyone with a racing form could read the statistic that trainer Linda Rice was scoring at an insane 42% with her 2nd time maiden starters.  Led handily to the top of the stretch when a 4/1 challenger collared him.  The two went at it the length of the stretch, first one head in front then the other....head-bobbing on the line, PHOTO FINISH - too close to call.  My initial reaction was too close to call, no inclination, no surprise either way.  The slow motion replays and they kept showing them, and I was watching carefully still weren't conclusive to me; all the fellas around me were "sure" it was the #6 that won, Duquense Whistle was #4.  A guy next to me said he couldn't tell and I replied it depends on where the official wire is.  Then the camera showed Duquense trotting back while the "PHOTO" still showed.  The guy said - there's your winner, the camera man always knows.  And he did.  

Immediately the "INQUIRY" sign went up as well and several guys were curious, but I'd seen it - the #7 came out of the gate just a flash in front of the field.  So even though my pick was even money and should have paid $4 - allowing me to cash for $20, I only got back $18.50 because the DQ of the 7-horse from the field meant his money was refunded, lowering my final odds.  Booooo.  But hey, I was happy to come out on the right side of the photo!  This was no sooner official than I returned to my seat in Section 101 for the start of the third at Gulfstream where EVERYONE liked Venom Girl in a claiming event going a mile.  She'd won three in a row, all without taking a deep breath while daylight clear.  The last two were at this one-turn mile AND she was first off the claim to a trainer that's 29% with such.  She pressed the pace confidently to the far turn then took off as MUCH the best and suddenly I'd won two straight!  

Before heading up to the seat I'd made my next three bets - the Venom Girl bet, my pick in Gulfstream's fourth, and my BEST BET in NY on their featured Haynesfield Stakes, the third there.  Since I had no races in between those I simply stayed in my seat.  Soon they were in the gate for the 4th and Sea Cloud was my pick and the favorite in this nw1x allowance sprint.  She dueled last time going seven furlongs when facing winners off a long layoff and tired late.  The slight turnback and one under her belt - AND top rider Luis Saez on board should get her home.  She surged to the front turning for home and drove to the wire holding off the late challengers by about a length.  Three in a row, two straight at Gulfstream!  

She was even money so I was going to get about $20 back.  I decided to go to my filming location on the walkway above the paddock/walking ring because the Aqueduct races were shown on one of the jumbo screens in the walking ring area.  My pick in the NY feature was Todd Pletcher's Send It In.  There were only five in the field and he was 2/5 in the program so you knew you wouldn't make money here.  Aqueduct's inner track is a quirky surface and some horses like it, others don't.  You can often find a winner by simply finding the horse who's shown an affinity for the surface over the span of their career.  Send It In was no only the obvious choice on form, but he was 5/4-1-0 over this surface and 6/5-1-0 at this mile and a sixteenth distance.  What could go wrong?  Oh, my friend, never forget it's a horse race!  The leader to the far turn had had things all his own way and when Send It In made his move, the leader had something left.  Inside the 16th pole Send It In was still trying to get to him and then in a final surge just yards ahead of the wire they were dead even.....PHOTO FINISH - again!  This one was just as tight as the opener here and the slow-motion replays were just as inconclusive.  I thought maybe my head bobbed down at the right moment, and again, the photo proved me right.  

This wouldn't be a big winner at 1/9 odds, but it would have put a big dent into the day's investments had I lost!  Four straight :)  I missed on three in a row, but fortunately they were all minimum plays.  Two at Gulfstream where I was fifth at 7/2 in both and a Tampa race where I was outrun at 4/1, eighth under the wire.  I finally got on the board at Tampa in their sixth, a MSW sprint for sophomores and it was a Todd Pletcher runner, Egyptian Hero.  SOMEONE must have liked him because his owners paid $1 Million for him out of the Fasig-Tipton Sales!  In looking back it might have been your clue that he wasn't fully cranked or ready when he debuted at Gulfstream in December because local journeyman Edgar Zayas was up.  And he didn't run well that day.  Since then he'd worked sharply like NOW he was serious and today go-to Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was on board.  He broke from post ten and set the pace while wide - and stayed wide through the far turn then accelerated late to edge clear to give me my FIFTH winner as I turned the page!

This was no sooner official before they loaded into the gate for the featured 2nd race at the Fair Grounds - what's with all the "feature races" being early in the card!  The Broussard Memorial was a one-mile turf stakes for three-year-olds.  The field was made up of lightly raced sophomores and they were all stretching out for the first time and/or facing stakes runners for the first time.  It's not a good idea to make a steady diet out of betting strictly by the numbers, but Stallion Heiress had drawn rave reviews from her 84 Beyer when sprinting on the turf last time out.  If she was able to translate that kind of performance stretching out she was going to be strictly the one to beat.  But anticipating a route figure to match a sprint figure is dangerous business, especially with lightly raced runners.  The gates opened and BOOM she exploded to the front.  Despite the short run to the first turn she was quickly half a dozen in front.  By the mid-way point down the backside she was double digits in front and seemed to be cruising well within herself.  As they moved through the turn no one was gaining and she galloped along and the jockey looked over his shoulder for a threat - none to be found!

Because of the chance for something unforeseen and/or the sprint to route transition I only bet the minimum - but a winning ticket is a winning ticket!  AND in a stakes event :)  I headed back up to my seat in time for Gulfstream's 7th an entry level allowance on the turf going the marathon distance of a mile and three sixteenths around three turns.  I liked the lightly raced Barraaq from the Shadwell Stables under the care of Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Paco Lopez.  In his most recent at this same distance in mid-December he was on the lead through slow fractions and couldn't hold on.  He looked to me like a runner that wanted to have a target and had been on the lead then by default.  It looked like at least one other in this field was quicker and he could work out a good stalking trip.  The gates opened and before they got to the first turn Barraaq was clear on the front end by daylight.  As they ran past the stands for the first time I could tell he was doing it easily and I've seen Paco Lopez do this many, many times.  I felt pretty good about my chances!  As they hit the far turn the field began to make their move, but they'd let Lopez alone on the front for too long.  He quickly spurted clear by additional lengths into the stretch and when the serious late runners made a bid inside the sixteenth pole he still had another burst left to win going away.  And the most enjoyable thing - the price!

Tampa Bay Festival Day Highlights:  Part 1

Sent off at better than 3/1 the $2 mutual was a very generous $8.80 so with my double investment I was going to cash out for nearly $45!  Missed at Oaklawn - which I watched on my phone from my seat.  It looked to me like I had won but upon closer review the horse I was watching on my phone that I thought was me, wasn't - I was sixth :(  At Tampa I had a pick in their seventh, an allowance race going a mile on the turf.  It looked to me like all but two of these were outsiders.  Something Kitty had chased odds-on Earring (my bet of the day that day) last time but I thought Christophe Clement's Width was an even stronger play.  She had been a solid third behind Chad Brown's Elyssa's World who had exited that race to be graded stakes placed and was running (and finishing second) today in a graded stakes here at Gulfstream.  She was the class of the field.  Right to the front for Width and as the fractions came up for the first 3/4 of a mile when they hit the far turn I thought I was watching a virtual replay of the Barraaq race.  We'd coasted loose on an easy lead and nobody was catching us today!  The field closed in as they hit the top of the lane but Width opened up  and drew off as easily the best.  And her price was also generous - $6.20, so I cashed for over $30!  The third at the Fair Grounds was a second level allowance and I was a disappointing fourth at 2/1.  Then came what turned out to be THE BEST race of the day.  For many reasons!  It was the eighth at Gulfstream - an added bonus that the best race of the day was one I got to witness live!  - it was a maiden special for three-year-old fillies on the turf.  That alone would make it a difficult race to figure the winner, much less one with confidence.  But most were unraced and several of them looked like - as many do at Gulfstream in the winter - they were future graded stakes runners.  Funny, but several years ago when I saw maiden races, especially with several first time starters, that was an immediate "PASS" and I'd turn to the next race.  Now I often find strong plays in these kinds of races - based on the connections, breeding, and workouts.  Well, such was the case here with Escape Velocity - she was out of the Chad Brown barn and he is exceptional with his turf runners; even more so with fillies; and is an excellent debut trainer - most especially here and at Saratoga with his two-year-old turf runners.  Add in go-to rider Javier Castellano and now we're talking!  When I look at workouts I like to see bullet works, or very fast works leading up to a race.  But in turf races like this I also like to see a string of steady workouts to get a runner fit and ready.  I've got a lot of experience and read alot about handicapping and I have read several times that it's not always the bullet work, but are the works evenly spaced and consistent that is the tell-tale sign.  Such was the case here.  I understand that there were many options in here and several win candidates, but when I looked at the spread sheet of selections for the three Gulfstream handicappers only one had Escape Velocity on their top three list and only I had her to win.  The field was well bunched as they hit the far turn and I turned on my camera to video the stretch run.  I got the field in focus and Escape Velocity was close, but not in a position where I had any confidence.  At the furlong pole, still close, but not a win threat.  And then suddenly she and four others found a new gear and it was a mad dash to the finish and I captured the five-horse blanket finish on camera.  I was encouraged that track announcer Pete Aiello called "Escape Velocity may have been the right one on the wire" as they galloped out around the turn.  The judges review of the photo took forever.  One "problem" with photos here at Gulfstream on the turf is that the camera angle and where they stop the slow-motion replay isn't really at the finish line so it's really hard to determine who is the winner and exactly WHERE is the finish line. Finally, the number "3" for Escape Velocity went up!  It was another five minutes to sort through the rest of the finishers and it was finally determined that it was a dead-heat for fourth place.  Check out the official photo and then compare to the photo taken by the track photographer for the "winning" finish.......

But best of all in this story is that Escape Velocity went off at better than 7/2 odds AND I had tripled the bet!  So my ticket was worth over $70!  NICE!  Ironic that the next race was the most disappointing result of the day.  I'd seen on Facebook on Thursday before I began handicapping an article about a Bill Mott 3yo filly who had drawn off to win by a dozen lengths in her debut.  This NEVER happens with a Mott first time starter.  And in the story it talked about how excited fans were to see this Kentucky Oaks hopeful run back - maybe this weekend in a stakes at Tampa.  Sure enough, here she was as the 9/5 favorite in the Suncoast Stakes, the eighth at Tampa, for sophomore fillies.  Not only did she look the part on paper, but the field did not look to be filled with talent.  I made her the BET of the Day.  The rider had her sitting several lengths behind a longshot, 10-1 leader and as they moved down the backside I was concerned because the fractions were slow and the leader looked to be cruising.  Elate - the Mott filly - made her move as they hit the far turn, and closed ground as they moved to the top of the stretch.  But I could tell, the leader had been allowed to cruise on a soft pace for too long and she had plenty left to pull of the big upset - second at 1/5 odds.  Boy, the racing gods giveth and taketh away my friend.  Savor every victory because there's going to be a hard fall soon enough!  I missed again when third at Aqueduct in an allowance at 5/1.  The first of three graded stakes at Gulfstream was next.  The star attraction of the Grade 3 Suwannee River was Todd Pletcher's Sandiva who loves this course.  But I'd seen her win last time out and it was less than inspiring.  I just had "that feeling" she would be upset today, but couldn't make a strong enough case for any of the challengers to bet them.  Third at 3/2 while the winner had earned my comment, "Dickinson (4/1) might be the value play in here...." - and she was paying over $10 for a $2 bet.  Sigh.....They crossed the finish and I went downstairs just in time to see the field in Oaklawn's fifth surge through the final 16th of a mile.  Up the rail came my pick, Mo For The Money to be up in time.  Tripled the bet on the 4/5 favorite so I cashed for nearly $30.

Four losses in a row, three of them with added-money investments - along with the Elate loss - were destined to cost me a profitable day despite the number of winners I collected today.  Kasaqui saved ground all the way to the stretch in the 8 1/2 furlong turf test, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay, but had to shift out five wide to get clear run at the top of the lane.  By the time he was clear and in full flight to the wire it was too late, just missed to be second at 5/2.  Divisidero is one of my most favorite horses and has for two consecutive years been my UPSET SPECIAL on Kentucky Derby Day and delivered both times.  I just thought today he'd win here with a clean rallying trip.  But in spite of a rapid pace that should set it up for a closer - it did - the rider had him pressing the pace.  He faded to sixth as the 2/1 favorite.  Afterwards this looked like all the makings of a prep race, especially in light of his last race, his first of the season.  Seen this many times - first time out, lag back and make a belated run; next time out push towards the front and fade late.  No with two races under their belt with closing, one up close, they are ready to fire big time third off the layoff.  If he comes back on Derby Day, he owes me, big time.  Kitten's Gold was a no-excuse third at the Fair Grounds at 5/2 and then at Aqueduct I thought it was just destined to win with Sicilla Connie in their finale, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds.  Scroll up to the top - the opener at Aqueduct - I won with a Linda Rice runner who was a second-starting maiden and Rice has won with 42% of those.  Same with 'Connie.  Rallied from near the back and was five wide into the stretch......stopped as the 9/5 favorite, fifth under the wire.  Two big graded stakes were next on my sheet:  First up the featured Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa for three-year-old Derby hopefuls.  The headliner was McCracken, an undefeated sophomore who'd already won twice at Churchill Downs.  If he progresses and is a legitimate Derby contender on the first Saturday in May it's a big bonus that he's already proven over their unusual surface.   The worry here was two-fold.....first, he's a closer and that means he needs racing luck and a strong pace in front of him; second, he had not raced since November.  Conversely there were three things going FOR him I felt.  First, he had bullet works - more than one - over the deep Palm Meadows training track in preparation for his return today; and second, it's been my experience with lightly raced runners, like this one, that when they are undefeated early in their career the connections are much more selective about where to run and about having them fully ready to show their best.  If a top notch runner - even a lightly raced one - has already been beaten, then there's no "he's undefeated" pressure and you can use a race as a "prep" and to get them ready.  But when they have an unbeaten record, you want to keep them that way as long as possible.  Third, he just looked too good for these runners.  He was second last approaching the far turn and the pace was legitimate enough if he was good enough.  I could tell the rider gave him the "GO" sign and immediately he accelerated on the turn and picked off runners one by one.  As heads turned for home he was some five wide, but he also had all the momentum and was nearing the leaders.  By the furlong pole he'd drawn even and through the final sixteenth he drew off as much the best!  PRIME TIME bet baby!

Cashed for $50!  The second of the two big graded events was the Grade 2 Santa Maria for older fillies and mares in So Cal.  While star attractions Stellar Wind and Songbird are just readying for their 2017 campaign, and BC champion Beholder is retired, Bob Baffert's Vale Dori has been cleaning up on the rest of the stakes division out west.  She faced a field much like the last three she'd demolished under a hand ride and looked easily best.  As I wrote in my analysis and said on my video, "you're not going to make any money here," but it's all about being right!  One of the inside runners said "you're not getting a loose lead today" and so Mike Smith reigned her in behind the longshot leader to the far turn.  He gave her the cue to go and she easily accelerated to the front.  But unlike the last few times when she drew off effortlessly, two challengers were running at the favorite with dead aim on her.  Smith asked her to run - didn't have to go to the stick, but he obviously was riding her with enthusiasm.  She drew off late and justified the big play I'd made on her as I had my TWELFTH winner on the day!

Vale Dori was 1/5 at post time and should have paid $2.40, but there was just enough extra money in the pool to bump the payout up to $2.60 which meant I'd cash for $39 on my play :)  In the featured Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap everyone loved Sharp Azteca - but me.  I just didn't think he was nearly as good as advertised.  I went with Todd Pletcher's Zulu who had shown promise last year.  As post time neared and Sharp Azteca was being hammered I cut back on my bet and was glad I did as Zulu was 5th at 3/1 while the favorite romped in what many said was the best race of the weekend.  Hmmm, still not buying it.  Missed again at Oaklawn before the third of the graded stakes at Tampa.  This one was the Grade 3 Endeavour where champion Tepin had been slated to make her 2017 debut.  She'd won this race last year and was on schedule until late this week when she came down with a minor case of colic and was withdrawn.  That left the favorite, Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings as the one to beat.  Last year on Tampa Bay Derby Day she had opened up an EIGHTEEN length lead into the far turn before Tepin blew by late as my BET of the Day!  Well there were no Tepins in this race and I thought she looked imposing.  I tripled the bet and with just minutes to post time I went up to the windows and put down another double investment.  Right to the front, well in hand it appeared.  And then the fractions came up - a wicked :22 and change opening quarter....she'll slow down the pace, I thought, she's all alone.  Then the first half was posted in a sprint-like :45 and change.  No way she holds on right?  Or is she just this much better than these?  As they moved on the turn here came the rest of the field - uh, oh.  Then as they turned for home Isabella Sings re-broke and it was all over!  WHOOO HOOO!

My total $25 investment got me back nearly $40 for my thirteenth win of the day.  I headed out shortly thereafter with two late races at Santa Anita and I'd planned on betting the Delta Downs Premier Night stakes races.  But I re-examined the analysis and decided I only really felt confident about one of the picks, so I only bet that one.  The one I bet ran third, but the other four produced two short priced winners.  I would have netted about $5 on the night, so I was content to have passed those events.  I won one of the two late Santa Anita races to cap off a 14-win day.....wow.  But as mentioned earlier a profit was not in the works thanks to Elate and that string of three triple investment picks.  BUT I won with 40% of my picks and only had a loss of $20 - it was a great day!

Tampa Bay Festival Day - Part 2