Wednesday February 8
Today was a beautiful winter day in So Florida and I wanted to head out to Gulfstream, because I make myself a promise every winter to fulfill a wish I made often when I was working. I'd gaze out the windows of my classroom, Room 314 at Cypress Bay High, on sunshine splashed days during the week and I'd say, "If I were retired, I'd be out at Gulfstream today!" So I try to live that dream as often as I can. The issue for me today was that our new chair was scheduled to be delivered between 8:30 and 1:30 pm. A late delivery would make a trip out to the races a moot point because the three race sequence I most wanted to see was from 1:30 to 2:30 pm. Fortunately the furniture arrived around 10 and I was good to go! I arrived a little after 1 and went straight to the xpressbet desk because I'd somehow lost my rewards card on Saturday. No problem, the lady got me a new one toot sweet! I went to the windows and made my bets for the day all together and settled in to watch the races. In the third we were going a mile on the turf in a starter optional claiming race. As I looked at the race it looked to me that Class and Cash was LONG GONE on a loose lead. He had won two straight before weakening late in his most recent when facing a couple of today's rivals. But that race came going an extra furlong and he had pace pressure. The cut back and lack of another front runner made this a slam dunk I thought. I was amazed when neither Ron Nicoletti or the beautiful Acacia Courtney put him on top of their list. In fact both made the remark that they saw outside pace pressure setting him up for failure again. Seriously? I think you're wrong! Jockey Jose Lezcano got him quickly to the front and just as I expected NO ONE went with him. A controlled tempo to the far turn and when the others began to pick up their pace, they were too late. Class and Cash accelerated through the lane as I watched from the rail to run away uncontested as easily best! And the best part, the price......
At 5/2 he paid a generous $7.60 so I cashed for nearly $40 to start the day! The fourth was a mid-week stakes race and it was my BET of the Day! Todd Pletcher rules Gulfstream, and as I've mentioned several times in this journal, the two most common winning angles for him is when he has a first time three-year-old in MSW races or a returning 3yo who won impressively last winter and comes in here off a long break. Such was the case with Third Day who had been electric in winning a maiden sprint at Monmouth last summer. Two weeks ago I was out here with my Mom with a similar Pletcher runner and Acacia Courtney told everyone that over the last two years Pletcher was 9-for-12 here at Gulfstream with last out winners coming off a layoff of 180 days or more. That one paid $3.80 despite her announcement and I was amazed that today the crowd, including Nicoletti, put so much confidence in a runner who'd faced - and lost - in a state-bred stakes earlier this meet. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez rated off the pace into the stretch then took dead aim on the leader. As I watched from the 16th pole he surged by to win in a close finish, but I was certain that he (a) was not fully cranked for a monstrous run, nor was he asked for his best.
Afterwards Pletcher was quoted as saying he'd be pointed for stakes races! Much like two weeks ago I was just amazed that the crowd let him go off at a generous even money. The $4.20 mutual meant that my $30 WIN bet would be good for over sixty dollars! TWO FOR TWO! The last race I would watch live had a built-in story that I was so ready to talk about on a video. For many years my most favorite televisoin program was "Castle." In it actress Stana Katic played dectective Kate Beckett who was original shadowed by mystery writer Rick Castle as he prepared to write a new novel with a new heroine. But as the series developed the two fell in love and became a crime-fighting team. I anxiously awaited my Monday night "Castle fix" and was most disappointed when last year Katic announced she would not return to the show and the series came to an end. So in the fifth today it was a maiden claiming sprint for a bottom $12.5K price tag. The choice was a Jorge Navarro runner which had all the stats to make her a strong play.....first time blinkers (20%), going turf to dirt (38%), and route to sprint (30%). The clear play here, and the filly's name.....BECKETT! The crowd, not sure if they were fans of the series or not, but they were of the Navarro filly because as they approached the gate she was hammered down to 6/5 favoritism despite having been away from the races for nearly a year. As I waited for the race to begin I began formulating a plan for what I was certain to be my video recap of the third winner on the day. I formulated a script in my mind that I'd faced the camera and say, "So I won my third race of the day today in the fifth where I loved Beckett......." then I would have a photo of Katic fade into (the one above). I'd come back on camera and say, "....yes I loved Beckett, and I liked the filly named Beckett in today's fifth!). This brought a smile to my face as I came up with what seemed like a "meant-to-be" ending to my live attendance today. Right to the front and cruising unopposed on the lead to the far turn.....whooo hoooo! But as the field made their move Beckett had nothing left for the stretch drive and faded to sixth. Sigh....you can't win them all, but at least I get to tell the story here! I headed for home with a two-out-of-three afternoon and guaranteed to have a winning day with only one more race on my selection sheet. That race was in the 7th, a three-year-old claiming race going a mile on the turf. As I remarked in my analysis, it wouldn't be a shock to see a surprise winner as these were lightly raced sophomore fillies going for a tag, long on the turf and three-year-olds are notorious for suddenly reversing their form ... for the good or the bad. But on paper Stay Safe Kitten looked easily best. She had won her maiden two back and then was a best of the rest second last time out vs. winners. As they hit the top of the stretch she made her move, but the long-time leader wouldn't go away. Stretch duel.....PHOTO FINISH! It was close and watching the replay I wasn't sure who'd come out on top, but the photo showed it was my pick, the favorite at a prohibitive price.
With that $14 return safely in my bankroll I'd cash for $115 - a profit of $40 on the day - when I returned to the races on Saturday!
An Afternoon At The Races
Thursday February 9
I was so appreciative of the winning day when enjoying my retirement yesterday afternoon at the races because winners during the week since the holidays have been hard to come by, especially multiple winners and a profit on the same day. When I handicapped the Thursday card on Wednesday morning I was so hoping that I'd get to go out on Wednesday for the live racing because it looked to me like today was a far more sketchy set of races; much more difficult to find decisive winners. In the opener it was a maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile for older runners. The opener could produce any kind of result but it looked to me like nine-time maiden Into The Future was far from a "sure thing," but when compared to his rivals he looked really good. The six lining up against him had a combined 126 losses - oh my, that's an average of over twenty losses per horse! My plan was to double the investment. But as I watched the races online Thursday morning he was being heavily bet, so I upped the bet. He pressed the pace into the turn and you could see that the rider had a ton of horse under him as he confidently waited to ask for the sprint to the wire. When he did Into the Future opened up as EASILY the best!
I passed the 2nd which was a "win" in my analysis as I wrote, "....it looks to me like this has upset written all over it....." and the winner paid over $20 on a two dollar bet. My second bet came in the fourth, an entry level sprint for older. Bow Town Cat looked like she'd be heavily bet and a most likely winner. One thing I've found to often be a winning clue is when trainers repeat patterns that lead to top performances. With Bow Town Cat three races back she'd set the pace to deep stretch in a one mile turf race; two back she turned back to a dirt sprint and drew off to an eleven length win. In her last race - she'd set the pace into the stretch in a one-mile turf event; today she turned back to a dirt sprint and was 7/5 in the program! A hand ride - right to the front and LONG GONE!
I was conservative in my bet with only the minimum, so I didn't make much money, but it was my second win in a row and fifth of what is shaping up as an excellent week! In the sixth Barry's Swing was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in another maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile. Pressed three wide to the stretch, dueled, got the lead, then was outfinished to the wire. I ran second in the 8th at 5/2 when Remarkable Tale blew the break and then was absolutely FLYING late to be best of the rest. The day would come down to my final selection in the ninth. This was a non-winners of two lifetime on the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs. As I first scanned down the past performances the winner jumped off the page to me. Leonardo da Vinci had earned speed figures in eight of his eleven races that would make him a clear winner today. The question was would he put up one of those today, especially off the poor last out effort. But a pattern showed up - three times he showed a really poor effort and in each race that followed he bounced back with a strong effort. My other concern was the rider - Julian Leparoux seems to nearly always give my horses questionable rides (with the exception when riding at Keeneland). Would he have Leonardo in position? Well, I could not have asked for a more perfect ride and trip! Poised just off the leaders through the far turn while saving ground all the way, Leparoux eased him out into the clear as the field turned for home and accelerated to the front in a perfectly timed move to score!
And the best part was the price.....the crowd let him go off at a generous 2/1 price - paid $6.60 and I was cashing for over $30 for my second winning day of the week and a 3-for-5 day, 60% winners!
Friday February 10
What a great week I've had so far! And today I was beginning to wonder if (a) the week's wins would even out, or was this "THE stretch" where I'd have my strong run of winners to bring my stats up to the strong numbers that seem to be the standard regardless of the time frame. As I looked over today's races the early daily double seems like a lock and I contemplated playing it straight. But, knowing that since I've been handicapping this is a bet I next to NEVER win. I always get one of the two without completing the double. The result being that I am 50% after two races and have lost money. So I passed on that option. In the first Dancin In The Heat was a just-miss second at this level and distance first off the claim while well clear of the show runner. I was concerned that he was a mere 3-for-20 at Gulfstream but the barn was white hot, winning 35% overall. And as an inside angle, the trainer HAD been the conditioner for second choice Ravelo's Boy until that one was claimed away. This guy was an 8x winner at GP and 7-for-16 at this one-turn mile distance. But, those had been vs. cheaper level runners and the new barn was only 2-for-29 at the meet. The gates opened and Dancin In The Heat went right to the front. He was completely unpressured and wired the field EASILY!
The crowd had hammered him down to 3/5 favoritism so my double investment netted just a little over $15. Incidently, Ravelo's Boy came running to be easily 2nd best completing a $6.60 exacta. The second half of the early double was the Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch's "best" of the day. I wasn't ready to go that far as Dubai Bob had wired back-to-back turf sprints, but the last was in a two lifetime event and today he moved up to three lifetime. In the preview to the race handicapper Ron Nicoletti even mentioned that one of the toughest class moves is THIS 2L to 3L move. The gates opened and Dubai Bob BURST to the front and kissed the field goodbye despite setting sizzling splits of :21.2 and :44.2! Two for two!
The final price was a fair 7/5 so I collected nearly $25 - and the double I WOULD have cashed for was a paltry $9.40. In retrospect that's a good price for two "obvious" choices, but the risk wasn't worth it and I was ok with not betting it. I was going for three straight with Brothers Forever in the third but he was a late scratch approaching the gate. I picked the winner in the fourth, but didn't bet. In the fifth Front Row Debbie was clearly 2nd best at 5/2 chasing a loose-on-the-lead front runner in a maiden claimer on the turf. I passed races six through 10 and was waiting on the finale for my final pick, but that one also scratched. So for the day I was 2-for-3 with another clear cut profit! WOW, what a week! For the week's races I was an amazing 13/8-4-0 with a profit of $75!
Saturday February 11
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day: Part 1
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day: Part 2
Sunday February 12
Again, what a week I'm having! Would Sunday - as it often is - be a "return to reality" or would it cap off a remarkable five day run of handicapping? In the opener Fact Check was 5/2 and looked to be the one to rally from off the pace in a turf sprint for maiden claiming three-year-olds. He split horses at the top of the lane and was in a perfect spot to accelerate to challenge for the win, but he wasn't good enough and ran third under the line. Passed both the second and third. The fourth was my "best" of the day with yet another Pletcher returnee who'd dazzled as a 2yo and was coming back off a long layoff. I think if the truth be told I probably normally would have bet heavier on Malagacy but considering the week I was having I was afraid that I might be "due" to miss on a big bet and I knew the payoff for a win wouldn't generate a lot of money. So to risk a lot of money that would ruin any chance of a winning day for a paltry payoff seemed like a bad decision. But this colt is one very, VERY talented colt. Sent off at 1/5 he blew by at the top of the stretch and drew off without being asked by nearly a pole. 
WOW - look for him next time out. Right back in the next race in a MSW sprint for three-year-olds. I've often remarked that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott next-to-never has his first time starters ready to roll, so when they do fire big first out, look out for their next start. And such was the case with Ascertain. On January 14th I picked Todd Pletcher's Run and Go - a debut three-year-old - looked best but that Mott's colt had been working strongly. I wrote, "perhaps tab for next time." Run and Go ran away as a decisive winner but Ascertain was a good third that January afternoon. He dueled to the stretch between horses and when I expected him to accelerate away and draw off he was faced with an up-the-rail challenger full of run; a front-runner that wouldn't go away; and a late runner down the outside. Four of them were across the track at the 16th pole but Ascertain edged clear late to be the winner! WHOOO HOOOO!
And the best part was the price - sent off by the crowd at 5/2, which was nearly 3/1 odds, he paid $7.60 meaning I'd collect nearly $40 and was guaranteed a winning day! Fifth at 7/1 in the 8th, then 4th at 2/1 in the 10th seemed anti-climatic. For the day 2-for-5, 40% and ANOTHER winning day! What a week:
24-for-53 (45%)
Profit of nearly $65!
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