Saturday February 11
I had high hopes for the day as I arrived at Gulfstream on a spectacular Saturday afternoon in mid-winter with temperatures in the low 70s and a crystal blue sky overhead. After starting the week with a sensational 8-for-13 handicapping record (with four seconds!), I decided to film a brief recap of each of those selections to put as a prelude to my day's recap video (see Part 1 below). I didn't have a selection live until the third race but I did have two races from other tracks. In the opener on the Tampa Festival Preview card - which featured three graded stakes to be used as stepping stones towards Tampa Bay Derby Day in mid March (when I will be there!) - it was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds and it appeared Todd Pletcher's Alum would be the post time favorite. He was overbet to 3/5 considering he'd won his maiden breaker at "Calderstream" prior to the Championship Meet opening, but I did support him. He struggled to be within range and it was just a late surge that got him second money. The opener at Aqueduct was a MSW going two turns at one mile and seventy yards for three-year-olds. I figured that Duquense Whistle would be bet heavily despite the 3/1 program odds because anyone with a racing form could read the statistic that trainer Linda Rice was scoring at an insane 42% with her 2nd time maiden starters. Led handily to the top of the stretch when a 4/1 challenger collared him. The two went at it the length of the stretch, first one head in front then the other....head-bobbing on the line, PHOTO FINISH - too close to call. My initial reaction was too close to call, no inclination, no surprise either way. The slow motion replays and they kept showing them, and I was watching carefully still weren't conclusive to me; all the fellas around me were "sure" it was the #6 that won, Duquense Whistle was #4. A guy next to me said he couldn't tell and I replied it depends on where the official wire is. Then the camera showed Duquense trotting back while the "PHOTO" still showed. The guy said - there's your winner, the camera man always knows. And he did.
Immediately the "INQUIRY" sign went up as well and several guys were curious, but I'd seen it - the #7 came out of the gate just a flash in front of the field. So even though my pick was even money and should have paid $4 - allowing me to cash for $20, I only got back $18.50 because the DQ of the 7-horse from the field meant his money was refunded, lowering my final odds. Booooo. But hey, I was happy to come out on the right side of the photo! This was no sooner official than I returned to my seat in Section 101 for the start of the third at Gulfstream where EVERYONE liked Venom Girl in a claiming event going a mile. She'd won three in a row, all without taking a deep breath while daylight clear. The last two were at this one-turn mile AND she was first off the claim to a trainer that's 29% with such. She pressed the pace confidently to the far turn then took off as MUCH the best and suddenly I'd won two straight!
Before heading up to the seat I'd made my next three bets - the Venom Girl bet, my pick in Gulfstream's fourth, and my BEST BET in NY on their featured Haynesfield Stakes, the third there. Since I had no races in between those I simply stayed in my seat. Soon they were in the gate for the 4th and Sea Cloud was my pick and the favorite in this nw1x allowance sprint. She dueled last time going seven furlongs when facing winners off a long layoff and tired late. The slight turnback and one under her belt - AND top rider Luis Saez on board should get her home. She surged to the front turning for home and drove to the wire holding off the late challengers by about a length. Three in a row, two straight at Gulfstream!
She was even money so I was going to get about $20 back. I decided to go to my filming location on the walkway above the paddock/walking ring because the Aqueduct races were shown on one of the jumbo screens in the walking ring area. My pick in the NY feature was Todd Pletcher's Send It In. There were only five in the field and he was 2/5 in the program so you knew you wouldn't make money here. Aqueduct's inner track is a quirky surface and some horses like it, others don't. You can often find a winner by simply finding the horse who's shown an affinity for the surface over the span of their career. Send It In was no only the obvious choice on form, but he was 5/4-1-0 over this surface and 6/5-1-0 at this mile and a sixteenth distance. What could go wrong? Oh, my friend, never forget it's a horse race! The leader to the far turn had had things all his own way and when Send It In made his move, the leader had something left. Inside the 16th pole Send It In was still trying to get to him and then in a final surge just yards ahead of the wire they were dead even.....PHOTO FINISH - again! This one was just as tight as the opener here and the slow-motion replays were just as inconclusive. I thought maybe my head bobbed down at the right moment, and again, the photo proved me right.
This wouldn't be a big winner at 1/9 odds, but it would have put a big dent into the day's investments had I lost! Four straight :) I missed on three in a row, but fortunately they were all minimum plays. Two at Gulfstream where I was fifth at 7/2 in both and a Tampa race where I was outrun at 4/1, eighth under the wire. I finally got on the board at Tampa in their sixth, a MSW sprint for sophomores and it was a Todd Pletcher runner, Egyptian Hero. SOMEONE must have liked him because his owners paid $1 Million for him out of the Fasig-Tipton Sales! In looking back it might have been your clue that he wasn't fully cranked or ready when he debuted at Gulfstream in December because local journeyman Edgar Zayas was up. And he didn't run well that day. Since then he'd worked sharply like NOW he was serious and today go-to Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was on board. He broke from post ten and set the pace while wide - and stayed wide through the far turn then accelerated late to edge clear to give me my FIFTH winner as I turned the page!
This was no sooner official before they loaded into the gate for the featured 2nd race at the Fair Grounds - what's with all the "feature races" being early in the card! The Broussard Memorial was a one-mile turf stakes for three-year-olds. The field was made up of lightly raced sophomores and they were all stretching out for the first time and/or facing stakes runners for the first time. It's not a good idea to make a steady diet out of betting strictly by the numbers, but Stallion Heiress had drawn rave reviews from her 84 Beyer when sprinting on the turf last time out. If she was able to translate that kind of performance stretching out she was going to be strictly the one to beat. But anticipating a route figure to match a sprint figure is dangerous business, especially with lightly raced runners. The gates opened and BOOM she exploded to the front. Despite the short run to the first turn she was quickly half a dozen in front. By the mid-way point down the backside she was double digits in front and seemed to be cruising well within herself. As they moved through the turn no one was gaining and she galloped along and the jockey looked over his shoulder for a threat - none to be found!
Because of the chance for something unforeseen and/or the sprint to route transition I only bet the minimum - but a winning ticket is a winning ticket! AND in a stakes event :) I headed back up to my seat in time for Gulfstream's 7th an entry level allowance on the turf going the marathon distance of a mile and three sixteenths around three turns. I liked the lightly raced Barraaq from the Shadwell Stables under the care of Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Paco Lopez. In his most recent at this same distance in mid-December he was on the lead through slow fractions and couldn't hold on. He looked to me like a runner that wanted to have a target and had been on the lead then by default. It looked like at least one other in this field was quicker and he could work out a good stalking trip. The gates opened and before they got to the first turn Barraaq was clear on the front end by daylight. As they ran past the stands for the first time I could tell he was doing it easily and I've seen Paco Lopez do this many, many times. I felt pretty good about my chances! As they hit the far turn the field began to make their move, but they'd let Lopez alone on the front for too long. He quickly spurted clear by additional lengths into the stretch and when the serious late runners made a bid inside the sixteenth pole he still had another burst left to win going away. And the most enjoyable thing - the price!
Sent off at better than 3/1 the $2 mutual was a very generous $8.80 so with my double investment I was going to cash out for nearly $45! Missed at Oaklawn - which I watched on my phone from my seat. It looked to me like I had won but upon closer review the horse I was watching on my phone that I thought was me, wasn't - I was sixth :( At Tampa I had a pick in their seventh, an allowance race going a mile on the turf. It looked to me like all but two of these were outsiders. Something Kitty had chased odds-on Earring (my bet of the day that day) last time but I thought Christophe Clement's Width was an even stronger play. She had been a solid third behind Chad Brown's Elyssa's World who had exited that race to be graded stakes placed and was running (and finishing second) today in a graded stakes here at Gulfstream. She was the class of the field. Right to the front for Width and as the fractions came up for the first 3/4 of a mile when they hit the far turn I thought I was watching a virtual replay of the Barraaq race. We'd coasted loose on an easy lead and nobody was catching us today! The field closed in as they hit the top of the lane but Width opened up and drew off as easily the best. And her price was also generous - $6.20, so I cashed for over $30! The third at the Fair Grounds was a second level allowance and I was a disappointing fourth at 2/1. Then came what turned out to be THE BEST race of the day. For many reasons! It was the eighth at Gulfstream - an added bonus that the best race of the day was one I got to witness live! - it was a maiden special for three-year-old fillies on the turf. That alone would make it a difficult race to figure the winner, much less one with confidence. But most were unraced and several of them looked like - as many do at Gulfstream in the winter - they were future graded stakes runners. Funny, but several years ago when I saw maiden races, especially with several first time starters, that was an immediate "PASS" and I'd turn to the next race. Now I often find strong plays in these kinds of races - based on the connections, breeding, and workouts. Well, such was the case here with Escape Velocity - she was out of the Chad Brown barn and he is exceptional with his turf runners; even more so with fillies; and is an excellent debut trainer - most especially here and at Saratoga with his two-year-old turf runners. Add in go-to rider Javier Castellano and now we're talking! When I look at workouts I like to see bullet works, or very fast works leading up to a race. But in turf races like this I also like to see a string of steady workouts to get a runner fit and ready. I've got a lot of experience and read alot about handicapping and I have read several times that it's not always the bullet work, but are the works evenly spaced and consistent that is the tell-tale sign. Such was the case here. I understand that there were many options in here and several win candidates, but when I looked at the spread sheet of selections for the three Gulfstream handicappers only one had Escape Velocity on their top three list and only I had her to win. The field was well bunched as they hit the far turn and I turned on my camera to video the stretch run. I got the field in focus and Escape Velocity was close, but not in a position where I had any confidence. At the furlong pole, still close, but not a win threat. And then suddenly she and four others found a new gear and it was a mad dash to the finish and I captured the five-horse blanket finish on camera. I was encouraged that track announcer Pete Aiello called "Escape Velocity may have been the right one on the wire" as they galloped out around the turn. The judges review of the photo took forever. One "problem" with photos here at Gulfstream on the turf is that the camera angle and where they stop the slow-motion replay isn't really at the finish line so it's really hard to determine who is the winner and exactly WHERE is the finish line. Finally, the number "3" for Escape Velocity went up! It was another five minutes to sort through the rest of the finishers and it was finally determined that it was a dead-heat for fourth place. Check out the official photo and then compare to the photo taken by the track photographer for the "winning" finish.......
But best of all in this story is that Escape Velocity went off at better than 7/2 odds AND I had tripled the bet! So my ticket was worth over $70! NICE! Ironic that the next race was the most disappointing result of the day. I'd seen on Facebook on Thursday before I began handicapping an article about a Bill Mott 3yo filly who had drawn off to win by a dozen lengths in her debut. This NEVER happens with a Mott first time starter. And in the story it talked about how excited fans were to see this Kentucky Oaks hopeful run back - maybe this weekend in a stakes at Tampa. Sure enough, here she was as the 9/5 favorite in the Suncoast Stakes, the eighth at Tampa, for sophomore fillies. Not only did she look the part on paper, but the field did not look to be filled with talent. I made her the BET of the Day. The rider had her sitting several lengths behind a longshot, 10-1 leader and as they moved down the backside I was concerned because the fractions were slow and the leader looked to be cruising. Elate - the Mott filly - made her move as they hit the far turn, and closed ground as they moved to the top of the stretch. But I could tell, the leader had been allowed to cruise on a soft pace for too long and she had plenty left to pull of the big upset - second at 1/5 odds. Boy, the racing gods giveth and taketh away my friend. Savor every victory because there's going to be a hard fall soon enough! I missed again when third at Aqueduct in an allowance at 5/1. The first of three graded stakes at Gulfstream was next. The star attraction of the Grade 3 Suwannee River was Todd Pletcher's Sandiva who loves this course. But I'd seen her win last time out and it was less than inspiring. I just had "that feeling" she would be upset today, but couldn't make a strong enough case for any of the challengers to bet them. Third at 3/2 while the winner had earned my comment, "Dickinson (4/1) might be the value play in here...." - and she was paying over $10 for a $2 bet. Sigh.....They crossed the finish and I went downstairs just in time to see the field in Oaklawn's fifth surge through the final 16th of a mile. Up the rail came my pick, Mo For The Money to be up in time. Tripled the bet on the 4/5 favorite so I cashed for nearly $30.
Four losses in a row, three of them with added-money investments - along with the Elate loss - were destined to cost me a profitable day despite the number of winners I collected today. Kasaqui saved ground all the way to the stretch in the 8 1/2 furlong turf test, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay, but had to shift out five wide to get clear run at the top of the lane. By the time he was clear and in full flight to the wire it was too late, just missed to be second at 5/2. Divisidero is one of my most favorite horses and has for two consecutive years been my UPSET SPECIAL on Kentucky Derby Day and delivered both times. I just thought today he'd win here with a clean rallying trip. But in spite of a rapid pace that should set it up for a closer - it did - the rider had him pressing the pace. He faded to sixth as the 2/1 favorite. Afterwards this looked like all the makings of a prep race, especially in light of his last race, his first of the season. Seen this many times - first time out, lag back and make a belated run; next time out push towards the front and fade late. No with two races under their belt with closing, one up close, they are ready to fire big time third off the layoff. If he comes back on Derby Day, he owes me, big time. Kitten's Gold was a no-excuse third at the Fair Grounds at 5/2 and then at Aqueduct I thought it was just destined to win with Sicilla Connie in their finale, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds. Scroll up to the top - the opener at Aqueduct - I won with a Linda Rice runner who was a second-starting maiden and Rice has won with 42% of those. Same with 'Connie. Rallied from near the back and was five wide into the stretch......stopped as the 9/5 favorite, fifth under the wire. Two big graded stakes were next on my sheet: First up the featured Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa for three-year-old Derby hopefuls. The headliner was McCracken, an undefeated sophomore who'd already won twice at Churchill Downs. If he progresses and is a legitimate Derby contender on the first Saturday in May it's a big bonus that he's already proven over their unusual surface. The worry here was two-fold.....first, he's a closer and that means he needs racing luck and a strong pace in front of him; second, he had not raced since November. Conversely there were three things going FOR him I felt. First, he had bullet works - more than one - over the deep Palm Meadows training track in preparation for his return today; and second, it's been my experience with lightly raced runners, like this one, that when they are undefeated early in their career the connections are much more selective about where to run and about having them fully ready to show their best. If a top notch runner - even a lightly raced one - has already been beaten, then there's no "he's undefeated" pressure and you can use a race as a "prep" and to get them ready. But when they have an unbeaten record, you want to keep them that way as long as possible. Third, he just looked too good for these runners. He was second last approaching the far turn and the pace was legitimate enough if he was good enough. I could tell the rider gave him the "GO" sign and immediately he accelerated on the turn and picked off runners one by one. As heads turned for home he was some five wide, but he also had all the momentum and was nearing the leaders. By the furlong pole he'd drawn even and through the final sixteenth he drew off as much the best! PRIME TIME bet baby!
Cashed for $50! The second of the two big graded events was the Grade 2 Santa Maria for older fillies and mares in So Cal. While star attractions Stellar Wind and Songbird are just readying for their 2017 campaign, and BC champion Beholder is retired, Bob Baffert's Vale Dori has been cleaning up on the rest of the stakes division out west. She faced a field much like the last three she'd demolished under a hand ride and looked easily best. As I wrote in my analysis and said on my video, "you're not going to make any money here," but it's all about being right! One of the inside runners said "you're not getting a loose lead today" and so Mike Smith reigned her in behind the longshot leader to the far turn. He gave her the cue to go and she easily accelerated to the front. But unlike the last few times when she drew off effortlessly, two challengers were running at the favorite with dead aim on her. Smith asked her to run - didn't have to go to the stick, but he obviously was riding her with enthusiasm. She drew off late and justified the big play I'd made on her as I had my TWELFTH winner on the day!
Vale Dori was 1/5 at post time and should have paid $2.40, but there was just enough extra money in the pool to bump the payout up to $2.60 which meant I'd cash for $39 on my play :) In the featured Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap everyone loved Sharp Azteca - but me. I just didn't think he was nearly as good as advertised. I went with Todd Pletcher's Zulu who had shown promise last year. As post time neared and Sharp Azteca was being hammered I cut back on my bet and was glad I did as Zulu was 5th at 3/1 while the favorite romped in what many said was the best race of the weekend. Hmmm, still not buying it. Missed again at Oaklawn before the third of the graded stakes at Tampa. This one was the Grade 3 Endeavour where champion Tepin had been slated to make her 2017 debut. She'd won this race last year and was on schedule until late this week when she came down with a minor case of colic and was withdrawn. That left the favorite, Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings as the one to beat. Last year on Tampa Bay Derby Day she had opened up an EIGHTEEN length lead into the far turn before Tepin blew by late as my BET of the Day! Well there were no Tepins in this race and I thought she looked imposing. I tripled the bet and with just minutes to post time I went up to the windows and put down another double investment. Right to the front, well in hand it appeared. And then the fractions came up - a wicked :22 and change opening quarter....she'll slow down the pace, I thought, she's all alone. Then the first half was posted in a sprint-like :45 and change. No way she holds on right? Or is she just this much better than these? As they moved on the turn here came the rest of the field - uh, oh. Then as they turned for home Isabella Sings re-broke and it was all over! WHOOO HOOO!
My total $25 investment got me back nearly $40 for my thirteenth win of the day. I headed out shortly thereafter with two late races at Santa Anita and I'd planned on betting the Delta Downs Premier Night stakes races. But I re-examined the analysis and decided I only really felt confident about one of the picks, so I only bet that one. The one I bet ran third, but the other four produced two short priced winners. I would have netted about $5 on the night, so I was content to have passed those events. I won one of the two late Santa Anita races to cap off a 14-win day.....wow. But as mentioned earlier a profit was not in the works thanks to Elate and that string of three triple investment picks. BUT I won with 40% of my picks and only had a loss of $20 - it was a great day!
This was no sooner official before they loaded into the gate for the featured 2nd race at the Fair Grounds - what's with all the "feature races" being early in the card! The Broussard Memorial was a one-mile turf stakes for three-year-olds. The field was made up of lightly raced sophomores and they were all stretching out for the first time and/or facing stakes runners for the first time. It's not a good idea to make a steady diet out of betting strictly by the numbers, but Stallion Heiress had drawn rave reviews from her 84 Beyer when sprinting on the turf last time out. If she was able to translate that kind of performance stretching out she was going to be strictly the one to beat. But anticipating a route figure to match a sprint figure is dangerous business, especially with lightly raced runners. The gates opened and BOOM she exploded to the front. Despite the short run to the first turn she was quickly half a dozen in front. By the mid-way point down the backside she was double digits in front and seemed to be cruising well within herself. As they moved through the turn no one was gaining and she galloped along and the jockey looked over his shoulder for a threat - none to be found!
Because of the chance for something unforeseen and/or the sprint to route transition I only bet the minimum - but a winning ticket is a winning ticket! AND in a stakes event :) I headed back up to my seat in time for Gulfstream's 7th an entry level allowance on the turf going the marathon distance of a mile and three sixteenths around three turns. I liked the lightly raced Barraaq from the Shadwell Stables under the care of Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Paco Lopez. In his most recent at this same distance in mid-December he was on the lead through slow fractions and couldn't hold on. He looked to me like a runner that wanted to have a target and had been on the lead then by default. It looked like at least one other in this field was quicker and he could work out a good stalking trip. The gates opened and before they got to the first turn Barraaq was clear on the front end by daylight. As they ran past the stands for the first time I could tell he was doing it easily and I've seen Paco Lopez do this many, many times. I felt pretty good about my chances! As they hit the far turn the field began to make their move, but they'd let Lopez alone on the front for too long. He quickly spurted clear by additional lengths into the stretch and when the serious late runners made a bid inside the sixteenth pole he still had another burst left to win going away. And the most enjoyable thing - the price!
Tampa Bay Festival Day Highlights: Part 1
Sent off at better than 3/1 the $2 mutual was a very generous $8.80 so with my double investment I was going to cash out for nearly $45! Missed at Oaklawn - which I watched on my phone from my seat. It looked to me like I had won but upon closer review the horse I was watching on my phone that I thought was me, wasn't - I was sixth :( At Tampa I had a pick in their seventh, an allowance race going a mile on the turf. It looked to me like all but two of these were outsiders. Something Kitty had chased odds-on Earring (my bet of the day that day) last time but I thought Christophe Clement's Width was an even stronger play. She had been a solid third behind Chad Brown's Elyssa's World who had exited that race to be graded stakes placed and was running (and finishing second) today in a graded stakes here at Gulfstream. She was the class of the field. Right to the front for Width and as the fractions came up for the first 3/4 of a mile when they hit the far turn I thought I was watching a virtual replay of the Barraaq race. We'd coasted loose on an easy lead and nobody was catching us today! The field closed in as they hit the top of the lane but Width opened up and drew off as easily the best. And her price was also generous - $6.20, so I cashed for over $30! The third at the Fair Grounds was a second level allowance and I was a disappointing fourth at 2/1. Then came what turned out to be THE BEST race of the day. For many reasons! It was the eighth at Gulfstream - an added bonus that the best race of the day was one I got to witness live! - it was a maiden special for three-year-old fillies on the turf. That alone would make it a difficult race to figure the winner, much less one with confidence. But most were unraced and several of them looked like - as many do at Gulfstream in the winter - they were future graded stakes runners. Funny, but several years ago when I saw maiden races, especially with several first time starters, that was an immediate "PASS" and I'd turn to the next race. Now I often find strong plays in these kinds of races - based on the connections, breeding, and workouts. Well, such was the case here with Escape Velocity - she was out of the Chad Brown barn and he is exceptional with his turf runners; even more so with fillies; and is an excellent debut trainer - most especially here and at Saratoga with his two-year-old turf runners. Add in go-to rider Javier Castellano and now we're talking! When I look at workouts I like to see bullet works, or very fast works leading up to a race. But in turf races like this I also like to see a string of steady workouts to get a runner fit and ready. I've got a lot of experience and read alot about handicapping and I have read several times that it's not always the bullet work, but are the works evenly spaced and consistent that is the tell-tale sign. Such was the case here. I understand that there were many options in here and several win candidates, but when I looked at the spread sheet of selections for the three Gulfstream handicappers only one had Escape Velocity on their top three list and only I had her to win. The field was well bunched as they hit the far turn and I turned on my camera to video the stretch run. I got the field in focus and Escape Velocity was close, but not in a position where I had any confidence. At the furlong pole, still close, but not a win threat. And then suddenly she and four others found a new gear and it was a mad dash to the finish and I captured the five-horse blanket finish on camera. I was encouraged that track announcer Pete Aiello called "Escape Velocity may have been the right one on the wire" as they galloped out around the turn. The judges review of the photo took forever. One "problem" with photos here at Gulfstream on the turf is that the camera angle and where they stop the slow-motion replay isn't really at the finish line so it's really hard to determine who is the winner and exactly WHERE is the finish line. Finally, the number "3" for Escape Velocity went up! It was another five minutes to sort through the rest of the finishers and it was finally determined that it was a dead-heat for fourth place. Check out the official photo and then compare to the photo taken by the track photographer for the "winning" finish....... But best of all in this story is that Escape Velocity went off at better than 7/2 odds AND I had tripled the bet! So my ticket was worth over $70! NICE! Ironic that the next race was the most disappointing result of the day. I'd seen on Facebook on Thursday before I began handicapping an article about a Bill Mott 3yo filly who had drawn off to win by a dozen lengths in her debut. This NEVER happens with a Mott first time starter. And in the story it talked about how excited fans were to see this Kentucky Oaks hopeful run back - maybe this weekend in a stakes at Tampa. Sure enough, here she was as the 9/5 favorite in the Suncoast Stakes, the eighth at Tampa, for sophomore fillies. Not only did she look the part on paper, but the field did not look to be filled with talent. I made her the BET of the Day. The rider had her sitting several lengths behind a longshot, 10-1 leader and as they moved down the backside I was concerned because the fractions were slow and the leader looked to be cruising. Elate - the Mott filly - made her move as they hit the far turn, and closed ground as they moved to the top of the stretch. But I could tell, the leader had been allowed to cruise on a soft pace for too long and she had plenty left to pull of the big upset - second at 1/5 odds. Boy, the racing gods giveth and taketh away my friend. Savor every victory because there's going to be a hard fall soon enough! I missed again when third at Aqueduct in an allowance at 5/1. The first of three graded stakes at Gulfstream was next. The star attraction of the Grade 3 Suwannee River was Todd Pletcher's Sandiva who loves this course. But I'd seen her win last time out and it was less than inspiring. I just had "that feeling" she would be upset today, but couldn't make a strong enough case for any of the challengers to bet them. Third at 3/2 while the winner had earned my comment, "Dickinson (4/1) might be the value play in here...." - and she was paying over $10 for a $2 bet. Sigh.....They crossed the finish and I went downstairs just in time to see the field in Oaklawn's fifth surge through the final 16th of a mile. Up the rail came my pick, Mo For The Money to be up in time. Tripled the bet on the 4/5 favorite so I cashed for nearly $30.
Four losses in a row, three of them with added-money investments - along with the Elate loss - were destined to cost me a profitable day despite the number of winners I collected today. Kasaqui saved ground all the way to the stretch in the 8 1/2 furlong turf test, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay, but had to shift out five wide to get clear run at the top of the lane. By the time he was clear and in full flight to the wire it was too late, just missed to be second at 5/2. Divisidero is one of my most favorite horses and has for two consecutive years been my UPSET SPECIAL on Kentucky Derby Day and delivered both times. I just thought today he'd win here with a clean rallying trip. But in spite of a rapid pace that should set it up for a closer - it did - the rider had him pressing the pace. He faded to sixth as the 2/1 favorite. Afterwards this looked like all the makings of a prep race, especially in light of his last race, his first of the season. Seen this many times - first time out, lag back and make a belated run; next time out push towards the front and fade late. No with two races under their belt with closing, one up close, they are ready to fire big time third off the layoff. If he comes back on Derby Day, he owes me, big time. Kitten's Gold was a no-excuse third at the Fair Grounds at 5/2 and then at Aqueduct I thought it was just destined to win with Sicilla Connie in their finale, a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds. Scroll up to the top - the opener at Aqueduct - I won with a Linda Rice runner who was a second-starting maiden and Rice has won with 42% of those. Same with 'Connie. Rallied from near the back and was five wide into the stretch......stopped as the 9/5 favorite, fifth under the wire. Two big graded stakes were next on my sheet: First up the featured Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa for three-year-old Derby hopefuls. The headliner was McCracken, an undefeated sophomore who'd already won twice at Churchill Downs. If he progresses and is a legitimate Derby contender on the first Saturday in May it's a big bonus that he's already proven over their unusual surface. The worry here was two-fold.....first, he's a closer and that means he needs racing luck and a strong pace in front of him; second, he had not raced since November. Conversely there were three things going FOR him I felt. First, he had bullet works - more than one - over the deep Palm Meadows training track in preparation for his return today; and second, it's been my experience with lightly raced runners, like this one, that when they are undefeated early in their career the connections are much more selective about where to run and about having them fully ready to show their best. If a top notch runner - even a lightly raced one - has already been beaten, then there's no "he's undefeated" pressure and you can use a race as a "prep" and to get them ready. But when they have an unbeaten record, you want to keep them that way as long as possible. Third, he just looked too good for these runners. He was second last approaching the far turn and the pace was legitimate enough if he was good enough. I could tell the rider gave him the "GO" sign and immediately he accelerated on the turn and picked off runners one by one. As heads turned for home he was some five wide, but he also had all the momentum and was nearing the leaders. By the furlong pole he'd drawn even and through the final sixteenth he drew off as much the best! PRIME TIME bet baby!
Cashed for $50! The second of the two big graded events was the Grade 2 Santa Maria for older fillies and mares in So Cal. While star attractions Stellar Wind and Songbird are just readying for their 2017 campaign, and BC champion Beholder is retired, Bob Baffert's Vale Dori has been cleaning up on the rest of the stakes division out west. She faced a field much like the last three she'd demolished under a hand ride and looked easily best. As I wrote in my analysis and said on my video, "you're not going to make any money here," but it's all about being right! One of the inside runners said "you're not getting a loose lead today" and so Mike Smith reigned her in behind the longshot leader to the far turn. He gave her the cue to go and she easily accelerated to the front. But unlike the last few times when she drew off effortlessly, two challengers were running at the favorite with dead aim on her. Smith asked her to run - didn't have to go to the stick, but he obviously was riding her with enthusiasm. She drew off late and justified the big play I'd made on her as I had my TWELFTH winner on the day!
Vale Dori was 1/5 at post time and should have paid $2.40, but there was just enough extra money in the pool to bump the payout up to $2.60 which meant I'd cash for $39 on my play :) In the featured Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap everyone loved Sharp Azteca - but me. I just didn't think he was nearly as good as advertised. I went with Todd Pletcher's Zulu who had shown promise last year. As post time neared and Sharp Azteca was being hammered I cut back on my bet and was glad I did as Zulu was 5th at 3/1 while the favorite romped in what many said was the best race of the weekend. Hmmm, still not buying it. Missed again at Oaklawn before the third of the graded stakes at Tampa. This one was the Grade 3 Endeavour where champion Tepin had been slated to make her 2017 debut. She'd won this race last year and was on schedule until late this week when she came down with a minor case of colic and was withdrawn. That left the favorite, Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings as the one to beat. Last year on Tampa Bay Derby Day she had opened up an EIGHTEEN length lead into the far turn before Tepin blew by late as my BET of the Day! Well there were no Tepins in this race and I thought she looked imposing. I tripled the bet and with just minutes to post time I went up to the windows and put down another double investment. Right to the front, well in hand it appeared. And then the fractions came up - a wicked :22 and change opening quarter....she'll slow down the pace, I thought, she's all alone. Then the first half was posted in a sprint-like :45 and change. No way she holds on right? Or is she just this much better than these? As they moved on the turn here came the rest of the field - uh, oh. Then as they turned for home Isabella Sings re-broke and it was all over! WHOOO HOOO!
My total $25 investment got me back nearly $40 for my thirteenth win of the day. I headed out shortly thereafter with two late races at Santa Anita and I'd planned on betting the Delta Downs Premier Night stakes races. But I re-examined the analysis and decided I only really felt confident about one of the picks, so I only bet that one. The one I bet ran third, but the other four produced two short priced winners. I would have netted about $5 on the night, so I was content to have passed those events. I won one of the two late Santa Anita races to cap off a 14-win day.....wow. But as mentioned earlier a profit was not in the works thanks to Elate and that string of three triple investment picks. BUT I won with 40% of my picks and only had a loss of $20 - it was a great day!
Tampa Bay Festival Day - Part 2
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