Holy Bull Day
I had high hopes for today, and at the end of the day I must say I've got mixed feelings about the way the day turned out. I feel good about the fact that I was at Gulfstream, on a "big event" day, where the weather was spectacular, and there was a big crowd. For the day I won with 35% of my selections and totaled eleven winners on the day, including four graded stakes and a big-time bet on a Todd Pletcher 3yo first time starter. But the flip side is that at the end of the day I lost money on the day due to three specific disappointing results. I'll remember the day for the former and consider the latter just the "cost of doing business. The first story to share is that Gulfstream had promoted for the last week and a half that you should "come early" to get your "free" Holy Bull long-sleeve t-shirt as supplies were limited. All you had to do was purchase a program. So, while I didn't get there way early, I did plan to arrive a good 45 minutes before post time to make sure I got one. I picked up my tickets, bought a program (which I never do, but hey, for $5 I'll take a program and a new long-sleeve racing shirt!), and headed to pick up the free shirt. Nothing going on in the breezeway, which wasn't a surprise because typically giveaways are in the Silks Simulcast area. I went inside and not only were they not giving them away, but there wasn't anything set up. Hmmmm, curious. I went back to the breezeway and headed towards the information desk when I saw the lady behind the counter pointing to a small sign on the counter to answer a guest's question. As I got closer I saw that the sign read that the shirts would be given away here between 1 pm and 3 pm and that there were limited supplies. That's a dumb thing to do, I thought. The third race goes off at 1 pm. What, you're supposed to get in line for a shirt and miss the running of the race? What's the primary point of being here - watch the races or stand in line? Still, what ever. So after the first race, post time noon, I was walking through the breezeway and I could see the shirts had arrived and a line had already begun to form. As I walked by I saw a woman behind the counter again point to the sign and heard her say they were not giving them out until 1 pm. As I passed another employee backed the line away from the tables because it was way too early for the giveaway. About ten minutes later - now it's about 12:30 - as I walked through the breezeway I see the shirts ARE being given out. WHAT? I checked the time, and it is CLEARLY NOT 1 pm. So I headed towards the back of the line. Out of the breezeway, past the paddock, and out the far entrance. WHAT A LINE! The two guys behind me whined and complained the entire time about the wait and no information. I agreed that it wasn't fair that people who "followed the rules" and were waiting for 1 pm were probably losing out on the free shirt; but the wait was less than fifteen minutes. When the two guys bitched at the Gulfstream director of marketing he explained they'd never had a response like this. I am not sure that this is entirely accurate, but I will admit I've never seen a line like this. I got my shirt, in my size. And it IS a nice shirt I must say. And I didn't miss any races because for me personally I didn't have a race between noon and 12:50, so it was perfect timing for me. AND I had a break after the third to take the car (and program) back to the car so I wouldn't have to carry it around all day! On to the racing results and stories.......
My first bet was in the opener on the turf here. Contradict set the pace to upper stretch and then was passed by the favorite, Global Entry while holding third place. This is of some interest because I had Global Entry last time when on paper he was CLEARLY best and went against him because he was first off the claim and had no excuses for losing at this level last time. Of course he wins today. In the opener at Aqueduct it was a maiden special for older and with all of the others having lost already, I thought the first-time starter Wage Acceleration was a solid play. So did the crowd sending him off at a ridiculous 3/5. He was wide throughout and made belated rally to get third, while the winner's rider patiently waited for room on the rail and saved ground to the wire. Finally got into the win column with the second at Tampa. It was a six furlong spring for maiden special three-year-olds. Ashleys Magens Bay had broken last of ten last time out, but closed with a flourish to get fourth place. She was working sharply for this start, and after being the 6/5 favorite for $25K runners and then having trouble, the barn aggressively moved her up to this MSW spot. She was off a bit slowly again, but was quickly up to fourth; moved three wide into the stretch and edged clear late to give me my first win at even money - cashed for $20. In the third at Gulfstream I thought Quality Asset could spring the upset as the lone speed. Outrun early at 9/2 he was an even fourth under the line. The first stakes of the day here at Gulfstream was next, the $100K Kitten's Joy for three-year-olds. At first glance I was a big suspicious that Todd Pletcher's multiple graded stakes winning Made You Look was in the lineup. But then I considered that since he'd won the Grade 3 Dania Beach and probably had his eye on a stakes on or before Florida Derby Day, this stakes fit as a bridge. So I noted he wasn't facing any other graded winners and intended to bet him bit. Then I read DRF's Mike Welsch's comments and he put him on top as a "tepid vote" - hmmm, he has reservations as well. As I've said, Javier Castellano has not been sharp on my picks and he was on board. So I lowered the bet. I almost raised it up after he was interviewed on the jumbotron and talked about how Made You Look was so good and would run better today. Well maybe he would have but in a short field Castellano took him well off the pace (as the 1-2 favorite) and when he had a choice to take the best horse outside for clear running he decided to save ground. Got into trouble, had to wait, no where to run .... late run to be a clearly beaten third. Another example of a poorly judged ride. Boooooo. The third at Aqueduct was a MSW for 3yo going a two-turn mile. I liked Full House who had run in two sprints and had the numbers to stretch out. The rail draw indicated to me that she'd probably go right to the front.. She was hammered down to 3/5 and it was well deserved! She was quickly in front by three or four and when she hit the top of the lane she was under a hand ride while coasting home by better than ten lengths!.
I was happy that New York rounds the payoffs to the nickle so I cashed for an extra $1.50 when Full House paid $3.50 instead of $3.20 for her odds. :) Got my first winner at Gulfstream, and my first graded stakes win of the day when I picked Favorable Outcome to post the mild upset. This was the seven furlong Grade 2 Swale Stakes for three-year-olds. This used to be a key Derby prep and was run on Florida Derby Day as a stepping stone to a next-out two-turn race. But with the way three year-old Derby hopefuls are managed it was moved back on the calendar. The top choice was certain to be local hero Three Rules. He had gone unbeaten over the summer and fall and had swept the Florida Sire Stakes. He'd been a "best bet" of mine on one of those days. But racing at Gulfstream in the summer is a whole different kind of competition, and that was evident when Three Rules shipped to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup and was completely outrun. I thought he'd run well, but he's a summer stakes winner, not a Championship Meet stakes winner. He forged to the front after dueling through the turn. That pace flow was exactly what I'd anticipated when I picked Chad Browns colt. Favorable Outcome had won a dirt sprint with a late run and last time out he too went to the BC, but he was in the one mile BC Juvenile Turf going two turns. This would be an ideal turn back spot where he'd have a lot of speed up front to set up his late run; and I thought he'd run big returning to dirt. My only reservation was if Javier Castellano would ride him right. Rode him perfectly as he waited until they were turning for home, swung out into the clear and had all the momentum to run down the favorite inside the final 16th!
Doubled the bet so the 2/1 odds led to a payout of over $30 on my first graded stakes winner of the day. It's a little thing, but note in the photo of me above - this happens all the time, and I know it, but never think of it.....the ticket, it's upside down. WOW, c'mon man! :) I ran 2nd at Aqueduct in an allowance with Todd Pletcher's 5/1 upset candidate and then was a just-miss 2nd here at Gulfstream when Grade 1 Spinaway winner Pretty City Dancer made her 3yo debut in the seven furlong Grade 2 Forward Gal - the first step towards the Gulfstream Park Oaks and hopefully the Kentucky Oaks. Another second, at a healthy 4/1 at Tampa on the turf when Electro Peg got the lead late but was caught inside the final twenty yards by an 8/1 winner. Three more misses followed - seventh at Oaklawn at 5/2, a good 2nd at the Fair Grounds at 7/2 and then a dismal 11th at 5/1 here at Gulfstream. It was now about 3:30 and I was about to have the best sequence of races over a span of 90 minutes and thirteen races which would produce EIGHT wins!
The opener at Santa Anita was a MSW for sophomores and the connections of Pegasus World Cup champion Arrogate - Bob Baffert & Mike Smith - were handling the favorite Reach The World. In his debut this $300K sales grad was a good closing third going a flat two-turn mile. Today he got an extra 16th of a mile AND it was noteworthy he'd had traffic problems in the last. Looked much the best and he was as he coasted wire to wire at 3/5. Collected $24 for my triple investment! I missed at 9/5 when a 40/1 runner wired a Tampa allowance turf event - I closed to be best of the rest 2nd. In the 9th at Gulfstream I REALLY liked Todd Pletcher's Noona Bella in a three-year-old maiden special sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs. I was hopeful to get a fair price because so very many of these fillies slated to run look to have graded stakes futures. Noona Bella was owned by Michael Repole, had John Velazquez and a series of sharp bullet works. She was a half sister to last year's Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner, Outwork. Just looked way too good for these. I went in D-E-E-P! I considered for some time making her the BET of the Day, but eventually decided that would go to the Holy Bull top choice. Velazquez put Noona Bella on the lead and she wired the field. Impressive - I won't be surprised if we see her on Derby Day in the Grade 2 GP Oaks!
My $30 bet yielded a return of a big $60 payout :) And as I was in the stands waiting the start of the race I pulled up the feature at the Fair Grounds which would have a post time close to the Gulfstream race. Here I liked Cowboy Culture who had won two straight on the turf. He had top rider Florent Geroux today. They rated kindly to the stretch, split horses and drove to the wire to finish a half a length clear at 3/2 odds! The Gulfstream race launched just as that one crossed this finish line; and as I awaited the prices locally I switched on my xpressbet account on my phone to Oaklawn in time to see 9yo Domain's Rap posing in the winner's circle after being victorious in their 5th race, a 2nd level allowance! As I walked inside they were walking up to the post for the feature at Aqueduct. The Grade 3 Withers for three-year-olds is the first step on the Derby trail there and I really liked El Areeb. Much like Made You Look I initially thought of pounding him, but when I read Mike Beer's comments in the DRF analysis I had to agree that as much as he looked tons the best, he'd never run a big race on the FAST main track, so perhaps his star quality numbers had come from the off-going. No. He rated to the top of the lane and ran away as MUCH the best.
The fair 1-2 odds and my prime time play led to a return of $31 (thanks again to NYRA rounding up to the nickle!). That's four in a row and five out of six! Santa Anita had half a dozen stakes on their card today but several of them I did not have an opinion, or didn't have a really strong opinion. I did think that St. Joe Bay would win the Grade 2 Palos Verdes sprint. He'd dueled through insane early fractions in his last two and had still managed to win both - though the last was a dead-heat with a stone cold closer. Today I thought he would be loose on the lead. But right out of the gate he had pressure and again the fractions were wicked: 21.2 and :44.2. But instead of giving way St. Joe Bay again drew off from the challengers to win going away.
I only doubled the bet and he was the 3/5 betting favorite so I cashed for just over $15. In the 10th at Gulfstream it was a no-conditions allowance optional claiming event on the turf. I went with Christophe Clement's Excilly. He left the gate as the 3/2 choice and went right to the front. He spurted clear at the top of the stretch but just failed to last, second. I was third at Oaklawn when Medal of Courage was off slowly, costing him a realistic chance. Then was third at the Fair Grounds. The finale at Aqueduct was a MSW for three-year-olds going six furlongs. I thought it was pretty clear that Maple Mo was the filly to beat. She had dueled on the lead going two turns last time out and now was turning back. The winner of that race came back to win a stakes race. Trainer Linda Rice is a a gigantic 41% winner with second starting maidens - BOOM! What's not to like. I was amazed when they hit the far turn and she was pressing the longshot leader with obviously plenty of run left AND those two were at least half a dozen clear of the field....not so much amazed that it was obvious she was going to win but that the odds were a very generous 5/2!
Won for fun and I cashed for $35 on my double investment! I thought I'd win at Tampa when Ocala Jim went off as the 8/5 favorite but a wide run into the lane cost him all chance - 7th. Up to my seats in "our section" for the 11th at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant for sophomore fillies. There were several talented runners in here but I really liked Chad Brown's Rymska. She gave Grade 1 BC Juvenile Filly Turf champion New Money Honey all she could handle in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo but didn't run as well in the Breeders' Cup herself. Today I thought she'd get a good pressing trip under Joel Rosario. But instead as they hit the first turn she was near the back. They came to the far turn and STILL far back. As they turned into the lane I almost didn't even turn on my video camera because she only had two fillies beaten. But when the announcer said she was gathering momentum I hit the "record" button. She came F-L-Y-I-N-G down the middle of the course with all the momentum and was up in time! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Wish she'd been better odds, but at even money with a triple investment I was cashing for another $30! At the Fair Grounds I was 5/2 but second best when I couldn't catch the loose-on-the-lead 7/5 front runner. Next was the featured Grade 2 Holy Bull. Classic Empire had won every start that he finished. His lone loss came in the Grade 1 Hopeful when right out of the gate he tossed his rider. He capped his championship season by winning back-to-back Grade 1 events, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and he was the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Conservative trainer Mark Casse had made it clear that they would only run in the Holy Bull if he was ready. When they announce he was sharp for today it appeared it was a mere formality that he'd win today. As I remarked in my analysis I really thought that this weekend the early Derby contenders would win as the favorites today - the time to beat them would be next out. Sent off at 1/2 he was off a step slowly, but he was tracking a moderate pace in third to the far turn. Perfect position for the big acceleration to the first finish line. I turned on my camera and ...... nothing. Didn't run a step. Beaten nine lengths, he was luck to be third. I headed out with four late bets in my pocket. I wasn't really confident of the last three, but thought I had enough of an edge to bet. But the first one I'd watch when I got home I was nearly certain I'd win. That was the feature at Oaklawn, the King Cotton Stakes. Ivan Fallunovalot had won five of seven starts at Oaklawn, including multiple stakes. In his last seven starts he'd won six of them with the lone loss when he tried the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Keeneland a year and a half ago. In his last he was a decisive winner of the Grade 3 DeFrancis Memoral at Laurel - today he was in a $75K listed event on his favorite track. Duh. He pressed the pace to the turn as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite and ran evenly to the wire without really threatening. Ouch - that hurts. I was third in the 9th at the Fair Grounds and in back-to-back graded stakes at Santa Anita I missed. So, as you see there were plenty of highlights and big numbers to the good, but the bottom line was instead of having a big profit to brag about I had a loss. Such it is in racing sometimes. My plan is to go to Gulfstream mid-week and then be out here for Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Day on Saturday - that's the second Grade 1 event of the meet, and it will be supported by two other graded stakes!
My first bet was in the opener on the turf here. Contradict set the pace to upper stretch and then was passed by the favorite, Global Entry while holding third place. This is of some interest because I had Global Entry last time when on paper he was CLEARLY best and went against him because he was first off the claim and had no excuses for losing at this level last time. Of course he wins today. In the opener at Aqueduct it was a maiden special for older and with all of the others having lost already, I thought the first-time starter Wage Acceleration was a solid play. So did the crowd sending him off at a ridiculous 3/5. He was wide throughout and made belated rally to get third, while the winner's rider patiently waited for room on the rail and saved ground to the wire. Finally got into the win column with the second at Tampa. It was a six furlong spring for maiden special three-year-olds. Ashleys Magens Bay had broken last of ten last time out, but closed with a flourish to get fourth place. She was working sharply for this start, and after being the 6/5 favorite for $25K runners and then having trouble, the barn aggressively moved her up to this MSW spot. She was off a bit slowly again, but was quickly up to fourth; moved three wide into the stretch and edged clear late to give me my first win at even money - cashed for $20. In the third at Gulfstream I thought Quality Asset could spring the upset as the lone speed. Outrun early at 9/2 he was an even fourth under the line. The first stakes of the day here at Gulfstream was next, the $100K Kitten's Joy for three-year-olds. At first glance I was a big suspicious that Todd Pletcher's multiple graded stakes winning Made You Look was in the lineup. But then I considered that since he'd won the Grade 3 Dania Beach and probably had his eye on a stakes on or before Florida Derby Day, this stakes fit as a bridge. So I noted he wasn't facing any other graded winners and intended to bet him bit. Then I read DRF's Mike Welsch's comments and he put him on top as a "tepid vote" - hmmm, he has reservations as well. As I've said, Javier Castellano has not been sharp on my picks and he was on board. So I lowered the bet. I almost raised it up after he was interviewed on the jumbotron and talked about how Made You Look was so good and would run better today. Well maybe he would have but in a short field Castellano took him well off the pace (as the 1-2 favorite) and when he had a choice to take the best horse outside for clear running he decided to save ground. Got into trouble, had to wait, no where to run .... late run to be a clearly beaten third. Another example of a poorly judged ride. Boooooo. The third at Aqueduct was a MSW for 3yo going a two-turn mile. I liked Full House who had run in two sprints and had the numbers to stretch out. The rail draw indicated to me that she'd probably go right to the front.. She was hammered down to 3/5 and it was well deserved! She was quickly in front by three or four and when she hit the top of the lane she was under a hand ride while coasting home by better than ten lengths!.
I was happy that New York rounds the payoffs to the nickle so I cashed for an extra $1.50 when Full House paid $3.50 instead of $3.20 for her odds. :) Got my first winner at Gulfstream, and my first graded stakes win of the day when I picked Favorable Outcome to post the mild upset. This was the seven furlong Grade 2 Swale Stakes for three-year-olds. This used to be a key Derby prep and was run on Florida Derby Day as a stepping stone to a next-out two-turn race. But with the way three year-old Derby hopefuls are managed it was moved back on the calendar. The top choice was certain to be local hero Three Rules. He had gone unbeaten over the summer and fall and had swept the Florida Sire Stakes. He'd been a "best bet" of mine on one of those days. But racing at Gulfstream in the summer is a whole different kind of competition, and that was evident when Three Rules shipped to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup and was completely outrun. I thought he'd run well, but he's a summer stakes winner, not a Championship Meet stakes winner. He forged to the front after dueling through the turn. That pace flow was exactly what I'd anticipated when I picked Chad Browns colt. Favorable Outcome had won a dirt sprint with a late run and last time out he too went to the BC, but he was in the one mile BC Juvenile Turf going two turns. This would be an ideal turn back spot where he'd have a lot of speed up front to set up his late run; and I thought he'd run big returning to dirt. My only reservation was if Javier Castellano would ride him right. Rode him perfectly as he waited until they were turning for home, swung out into the clear and had all the momentum to run down the favorite inside the final 16th!
Doubled the bet so the 2/1 odds led to a payout of over $30 on my first graded stakes winner of the day. It's a little thing, but note in the photo of me above - this happens all the time, and I know it, but never think of it.....the ticket, it's upside down. WOW, c'mon man! :) I ran 2nd at Aqueduct in an allowance with Todd Pletcher's 5/1 upset candidate and then was a just-miss 2nd here at Gulfstream when Grade 1 Spinaway winner Pretty City Dancer made her 3yo debut in the seven furlong Grade 2 Forward Gal - the first step towards the Gulfstream Park Oaks and hopefully the Kentucky Oaks. Another second, at a healthy 4/1 at Tampa on the turf when Electro Peg got the lead late but was caught inside the final twenty yards by an 8/1 winner. Three more misses followed - seventh at Oaklawn at 5/2, a good 2nd at the Fair Grounds at 7/2 and then a dismal 11th at 5/1 here at Gulfstream. It was now about 3:30 and I was about to have the best sequence of races over a span of 90 minutes and thirteen races which would produce EIGHT wins!
The opener at Santa Anita was a MSW for sophomores and the connections of Pegasus World Cup champion Arrogate - Bob Baffert & Mike Smith - were handling the favorite Reach The World. In his debut this $300K sales grad was a good closing third going a flat two-turn mile. Today he got an extra 16th of a mile AND it was noteworthy he'd had traffic problems in the last. Looked much the best and he was as he coasted wire to wire at 3/5. Collected $24 for my triple investment! I missed at 9/5 when a 40/1 runner wired a Tampa allowance turf event - I closed to be best of the rest 2nd. In the 9th at Gulfstream I REALLY liked Todd Pletcher's Noona Bella in a three-year-old maiden special sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs. I was hopeful to get a fair price because so very many of these fillies slated to run look to have graded stakes futures. Noona Bella was owned by Michael Repole, had John Velazquez and a series of sharp bullet works. She was a half sister to last year's Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner, Outwork. Just looked way too good for these. I went in D-E-E-P! I considered for some time making her the BET of the Day, but eventually decided that would go to the Holy Bull top choice. Velazquez put Noona Bella on the lead and she wired the field. Impressive - I won't be surprised if we see her on Derby Day in the Grade 2 GP Oaks!
My $30 bet yielded a return of a big $60 payout :) And as I was in the stands waiting the start of the race I pulled up the feature at the Fair Grounds which would have a post time close to the Gulfstream race. Here I liked Cowboy Culture who had won two straight on the turf. He had top rider Florent Geroux today. They rated kindly to the stretch, split horses and drove to the wire to finish a half a length clear at 3/2 odds! The Gulfstream race launched just as that one crossed this finish line; and as I awaited the prices locally I switched on my xpressbet account on my phone to Oaklawn in time to see 9yo Domain's Rap posing in the winner's circle after being victorious in their 5th race, a 2nd level allowance! As I walked inside they were walking up to the post for the feature at Aqueduct. The Grade 3 Withers for three-year-olds is the first step on the Derby trail there and I really liked El Areeb. Much like Made You Look I initially thought of pounding him, but when I read Mike Beer's comments in the DRF analysis I had to agree that as much as he looked tons the best, he'd never run a big race on the FAST main track, so perhaps his star quality numbers had come from the off-going. No. He rated to the top of the lane and ran away as MUCH the best.
The fair 1-2 odds and my prime time play led to a return of $31 (thanks again to NYRA rounding up to the nickle!). That's four in a row and five out of six! Santa Anita had half a dozen stakes on their card today but several of them I did not have an opinion, or didn't have a really strong opinion. I did think that St. Joe Bay would win the Grade 2 Palos Verdes sprint. He'd dueled through insane early fractions in his last two and had still managed to win both - though the last was a dead-heat with a stone cold closer. Today I thought he would be loose on the lead. But right out of the gate he had pressure and again the fractions were wicked: 21.2 and :44.2. But instead of giving way St. Joe Bay again drew off from the challengers to win going away.
I only doubled the bet and he was the 3/5 betting favorite so I cashed for just over $15. In the 10th at Gulfstream it was a no-conditions allowance optional claiming event on the turf. I went with Christophe Clement's Excilly. He left the gate as the 3/2 choice and went right to the front. He spurted clear at the top of the stretch but just failed to last, second. I was third at Oaklawn when Medal of Courage was off slowly, costing him a realistic chance. Then was third at the Fair Grounds. The finale at Aqueduct was a MSW for three-year-olds going six furlongs. I thought it was pretty clear that Maple Mo was the filly to beat. She had dueled on the lead going two turns last time out and now was turning back. The winner of that race came back to win a stakes race. Trainer Linda Rice is a a gigantic 41% winner with second starting maidens - BOOM! What's not to like. I was amazed when they hit the far turn and she was pressing the longshot leader with obviously plenty of run left AND those two were at least half a dozen clear of the field....not so much amazed that it was obvious she was going to win but that the odds were a very generous 5/2!
Won for fun and I cashed for $35 on my double investment! I thought I'd win at Tampa when Ocala Jim went off as the 8/5 favorite but a wide run into the lane cost him all chance - 7th. Up to my seats in "our section" for the 11th at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant for sophomore fillies. There were several talented runners in here but I really liked Chad Brown's Rymska. She gave Grade 1 BC Juvenile Filly Turf champion New Money Honey all she could handle in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo but didn't run as well in the Breeders' Cup herself. Today I thought she'd get a good pressing trip under Joel Rosario. But instead as they hit the first turn she was near the back. They came to the far turn and STILL far back. As they turned into the lane I almost didn't even turn on my video camera because she only had two fillies beaten. But when the announcer said she was gathering momentum I hit the "record" button. She came F-L-Y-I-N-G down the middle of the course with all the momentum and was up in time! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Holy Bull Recap
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