Week 9

January 25 - 28:  Pegasus World Cup Week

Wednesday January 25

In what was to become the foreshadowing for the week I could only find two winners from the ten race card - six betting selections.  But the disappointment was in the day's finale where the best bet of the day ran like a "Calder best bet."   In the second Arty'sbourbongirl looked an easy win selection after drawing the rail, first off the claim for Jorge Navarro, AND being the lone speed.  Right to the front and never looked back as the even money favorite.  

I doubled the bet and started the week with $21 new dollars in the account!   Passed both the third and fourth before running second in the fifth, a maiden claiming five furlong turf sprint.  Cool looked like a real solid upset pick with Paco Lopez as the lone speed.  But the favorite went to the front and while I had better pace figures Lopez decided to chase......and did all the way around to the wire at a post time 5/1.  In the sixth, a non-winners of two lifetime event at a one turn mile Bellamy Torch was going first off the claim for a trainer that didn't have big stats.  But I noted that the owner was Frank Calabrese.  As I noted in my analysis I've seen many, MANY first off the claim runners for this guy win - often with him standing near the finish line on the rail at Calder in his characteristic white T-shirt.  I thought 'Torch was also the lone speed and jockey Luis Saez was in complete control of the race sporting those iconic black & white silks with the "FC" logo.  Long gone as the 6/5 favorite.  Suddenly I'm 2-for-3 on the week and this is going very well.  

Then in the 7th Javier Castellano had the picture-perfect trip in a one-mile turf claiming event on Threat who was in for a first time tag.  Then the horse stopped - 10th at 8/5.  In the 9th Munjaz was way back early at 4/1 and showed little when finishing 7th in a 3-lifetime allowance on the turf.  But I was nearly certain I'd win the finale - a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event on the turf.  All of the rest of the runners had been beaten not only in claiming company but in conditioned claiming company like this while Global Entry - my BEST of the day - had not only never been in two-lifetime racing, but had never run for a tag.  Adding to the appear he was a Ken & Sarah Ramsey owned runner for Michael Maker.  AND had shown early speed vs. allowance runners off a layoff last time out!  LONG GONE it appeared.  But for some reason Castellano took him to the back - way back and he had way too much to ground to make up as well as making his move too late.  This has been a common theme this winter with Castellano riding like a "regular" jockey and not his usual top of the heap self.  Second best and the day was a loss.

Thursday January 26

I honestly don't think that I found nine selections from the twelve races carded because my Mom and I were going to spend the day at the track.  It was just a more typical Gulfstream card.  And I was particularly happy we'd be on track to see my BET of the Day - one of "those kind of runners" that I enjoy going out on a weekday to see run and WIN!  When we arrived I discovered that one of my picks was scratched.  In the first, it was very similar to the finale on Wednesday.  It wasn't lost on me as I made my bet that in this nw3L turf event that Javier Castellano was riding a runner who was dropping in for a first time tag, first time conditioned race, had the best speed figures and going for a top outfit.  This sounds oh-so-familiar to yesterday.  But hey, it's a new day!  No it's not.  Taken too far off the pace he was a late running third on another badly mis-judged ride - at least that's the way it appeared to me as I tossed my ticket on the 4/5 favorite.  I had a double bet on the second race as they approached the gate.  Then the announcement was made that on advice of the track vet my horse was a late scratch.  Sigh......I passed the third but then it was time for the fourth - my best bet.  Todd Pletcher wins all the time, he owns this place.  But two types of races are nearly always certain winners - (1) first time starting three-year-old maiden specials and (2) when a three-year-old wins impressively as a juvenile in the previous summer then is laid off until Gulfstream.  Such was the case with One Liner today.  And even better, the runner he'd beaten had come right back to win and then run 2nd in a graded stakes.  Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez up on the Win Star colt and we were talking "easy money" I thought.  I went to look at him in the paddock and he was the early 3/5 favorite.  Then the very gorgeous Acacia Courtney announced to the crowd, ".....over the last two years here at Gulfstream, when Todd Pletcher brings back a runner off a layoff of 180 days or longer, off a winning effort......this has happened twelve times and he's won NINE times for a win rate of 75% .... and ten were in the money......" Now EVERYONE knows my BEST BET is the winner!  Sure enough his odds plummeted to 1/5 as I went to the rail to watch.  But as the race neared post time the crowd, collectively had a "better" idea and bet down my second choice to 9/5 odds!  That one easily went right to the front while One Liner was in fourth behind the leaders.  On the turn the front running 9/5 choice looked to be well in hand and being ridden confidently when Johnny V asked the Pletcher colt for his best.  He picked off the 2nd and 3rd runners and as heads turned for home he drew on even terms with the leader.  The rider of that one was all over his mount, but it was too late and One Liner was too good.  Blew right on by and cruised by me as I filmed on the rail to WIN!  Whoooo hooooo!  With the late money coming in on the other horse somehow this "lock" - I mean, come on, they announced his chances of winning were 75% - had floated up to 4/5.  Then the payoff was not only $3.60, but an extra little something for those that bet, the price was $3.80.  With my $50 WIN ticket I'd cash for almost $100.  OH MY!  I I turned to head up to the second level to film a short video the guy next to me turned to his buddy and in complete sincerity announced, "It's fixed, the whole thing is fixed!"  Right - a 75% win angle, on the 4/5 favorite, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez at Gulfstream is "a fix."  WOW.  I got to the second level, set up the camera and with my winning ticket in hand pressed the record button.  Just then a big gust of wind came up and blew my hair across my face.  I instinctively reached up to comb it over and WHOOSH my ticket was blown out of my hand!  Oh no.  I quickly looked on the ground around me.  Not there.  I looked down the stairs - nope.  Went up the last two steps to the 2nd level, looked all over.  No.  You've got to be kidding!  A $50 WIN ticket and it's gone!  I continued looking but nothing.  I thought, maybe, unlikely, but maybe it had blown over the rail and down to the paddock area.  If that was the case, good luck to me to find it amidst all the seating, the sidewalk, not to mention the paddock itself and/or someone would have certainly noticed it floating down!  But, worth looking.  Continued looking as I went down the stairs - nothing.  Along the sidewalk, and in the seats right below where I'd been sitting.  Nothing still.  As I headed along the walkway towards the area where the sidewalk expands and is under cover with table and chairs there I noted a single, solitary piece of blank white paper laying on the sidewalk.  About the size of a ticket I thought hopefully.  I reached it before anyone could have the opportunity to pick it up first and as I turned it over I thought, certainly if this WAS the ticket wouldn't someone have noticed it floating down and at least checked it?  I turned it over.......$50 to WIN......YES!  WOW am I lucky!  I took my ticket back upstairs and filmed my video of this race and amazing story :)

The Story of the BET of the Day

The rest of the day was a series of losing events as I ran second, third twice, fourth, and off the board twice.  My Mom only cashed twice - on the late scratch (so that wasn't even a win) and on One Liner.  Still we agreed we'd enjoyed being out at Gulfstream for the day.

Friday January 27
Today, as it turned out, was the "best" day of the week.  And that's most ironic considering as I handicapped and after I handicapped I thought was one of the weakest cards of the meet!  The opener was a "PASS" and in the second I initially passed the race.  But about half way through the card it appeared to me that Ekipsado was better than most selections on the card, so I went back and made him a minimum bet.  This was a nw2L event going a one-turn mile for a basement level $6.25K.  He was one of two who were dropping to this level for the first time and it was in his favor that he "won" a nw2L $12.5K event before being DQ'd two back.  It looked to me like the most likely scenario was for him to use the rail draw to try and wire the field.  He did and was on the lead to the turn when headed by a longshot.  Typically horses when headed mid-race are done.  But as they hit the stretch the rider eased him outside the leader and Ekipsado found another gear and ran by, then opened up to win by daylight.  Most remarkable!

Only the minium bet and a short 3/5 price led to only cashing for $8.50, but hey....a win is a win!  Pass in the third, then Eloy Rod was a weakening third at 9/5 in the fourth.  Passed the fifth and upset minded El Gran Noel stopped to finish 7th in the sixth race at a generous 7/1 price.  Passed on both the next two and finally had my "best" of the day - only a double investment - on the 10th and featured second level allowance.  Greenpointcrusader had only been out six times, was facing older for the first time and had not been out since March.  But, like yesterday's big winner, he was a Todd Pletcher returnee and those win often.  It was also a positive that he'd been second best to at-the-time Kentucky Derby favorite Mohaymen in the Grade 2 Holy Bull last winter.  He stalked the leaders to the stretch and took off to score in hand!

Though the favorite, he was still an ok 6/5 so I cashed for over $20.  After passing the finale I finished the day 2-for-4 and a profit!

This morning we headed out early to Orlando so my Mom could meet our newest grandson, Oliver.  Ironic - from a racing perspective - that today was one of the biggest days of the racing year with the world's richest horse race being held at MY track and I wasn't going to be there.  But after sending out preliminary invitations and getting a small group of interested Florida Derby fans, I discovered that seats on the finish line were going to go for $250 or more and seats in "our section" for perhaps $150.  That changed everyone's mind.  And when the tickets went on sale for $188 for those seats I was out.  I later considered just walking in but found out that just to walk in was a $100 price tag.  No thanks.  But to be honest, as the big day approached I wish I'd paid the price to go.  So I told Kim that no matter what the price I wouldn't make that mistake again, I WILL be going next year if they host it again (there had been some talk of moving it to Santa Anita for next year).  I analyzed the races and found selections in ten races on the twelve race card.  By the end of the day only one of them won on the day as I watched on my computer at Brad & Lauren's home.  I had also handicapped the Santa Anita card where it was "Cal Cup Day" and found four stakes races that I liked.  I passed the opener at Gulfstream and then was fourth at 3/1 on a Chad Brown/Javier Castellano turf runner who ran evenly.  In the third it was between the top two favorites who'd faced off in the one-mile Grade 3 Rampart to decide the seven furlong Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie.  I thought Todd Pletcher's Genre, who had the rail under John Velazquez had a good chance to wire the field at a fair price.  She was 2/1 and I was happy with that but when the gates opened her nose went straight to the ground and she was suddenly last.  She ran courageously to rally and being second, but the favorite, my second choice - Curlin's Approval - was long gone.  After passing the fourth I went with Pletcher's "other" horse in the inaugural $400K Poseidon Handicap, Madefromlucky instead race favorite Sanford.  He looked to have company on the front end and I thought 'Lucky would stalk the leaders.  But he was wide throghout and too far back - rallied to be third at 4/1 - but at least I was right about Stanford not winning - lost a photo.  In the sixth Slaimy was a Pletcher/Castellano maiden 3yo on the turf.  Was right there in third at 5/2 to the stretch then faded to eighth.  Passed the seventh and in the eighth it was my "BEST" of the day.  Not a stakes race but a maiden special for three-year-olds.  Yes, a Pletcher first timer working bullets for his debut.  But like Genre, right to his knees at the break and was fortunate to get fourth place at 2/1.  Sigh.......Finally scored when Enola Gray was tons and I mean T-O-N-S the best in Santa Anita's Sunshine Millions Ladies' Turf Sprint.

I had tripled the bet on this down-the-hill turf sprint and cashed for nearly $25.  Just happy to get on the board to be honest!  In the 9th, the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint I thought Mongolian Saturday - the 2015 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint champion - laid over the field.  Two back off a long layoff I thought he wouldn't be ready for a Grade 3 race at Keeneland but he won; then he didn't fire down the unique hillside at Santa Anita.  This traditional 5 furlong turf sprint against LISTED rivals was just his cup of tea.  But he was a badly beaten 10th at 5/1.  In the Grade 3 La Prevoyante it looked like a rematch between Arles and Suffused.  Arles had a tactical advantage and she made the first move but the two dueled through the stretch AFTER Suffused came in and cut Arles off.  I was a clear 2nd but I told Brad, as he'd watched it with me, that there was a chance of a DQ.  There was an objection and they looked at it for several minutes, then left Arles, my choice, 2nd.  Sigh.......In the Grade 3 William L. McKnight Handicap Castellano gave Mr. Maybe a terrible ride and he was a distant 11th at 5/2.  Solid Wager was a good 2/1 in the Cal Cup Spring after winning the Grade 3 Midnight Lute, but his late rally was only good for an even fifth.

Finally it was time to watch the highlight race of the day and the showdown between two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome and the new sensation, Breeders' Cup Champion Arrogate in the $12 Million Pegasus World Cup.  In handicapping the race the first thing that was obvious was that none of the other ten had a chance if EITHER of the top two ran even a "B+" race.  And so it came down to which of the two stars would win.  Before the post position draw I gave Chrome a chance as this was his career finale and the race was at a more comfortable nine furlongs rather than the mile and a quarter of the BC Classic.  But as I looked at it more closely I was more and more inclined to go with the improving Arrogate.  In the Classic California Chrome had everything, and I mean EVERYTHING goes his way and it was over a track he was unbeaten on.  And still he was no match for Arrogate in deep stretch.  Then the post position draw.  Arrogate drew the rail which meant he might wire the field and Chrome drew post 12.....with the short run to the first turn runners in nine furlong races at Gulfstream stranded in post 12 are only 4% winners.  Done deal - it's Arrogate for me in a prime time play!  Arrogate didn't make the lead but Mike Smith had him settled off the leader saving ground while California Chrome was lapped on him four wide.  But with five furlongs to go I could tell jockey Victor Espinoza was really asking Chrome and Mike Smith had yet to move.  When he did it was all over as Arrogate ran away.

California Chrome simply didn't fire and ended up a well beaten ninth, the worst finish in his illustrious 27-race career.  Through the final furlong Arrogate was just galloping - wow, how good is this guy?  The payoff for a $2 bet on the 4/5 favorite was $3.80 so I cashed for nearly $40.

The next day I read several write-ups and the one that was most encouraging to me was when the chairman of the Stronach Group, Frank Stronach's daughter, told everyone she wanted to bring the Pegasus World Cup back to Gulfstream and that she thought the tickets were about twice what they should have been.  Regardless - I WILL Be there next year!

The 1st Pegasus World Cup

I came back to my laptop later in the evening to watch the last two races on my sheet.  The first was the Cal Cup Turf Classic where I thought multiple Grade 2 winner Ashleyluvssugar was the obvious winner.  But through the stretch the price horse on the inside ran the race of his life before finally in the final strides Ashleyluvssugar was able to edge to the front.

And in the final race of the day Brad Free's best bet, Coils Gold in the Cal Cup Derby didn't fire, last at 2/1.  So for the day I only won three of twelve but I was satisfied that I'd won with THE RACE of the Day!

Sunday January 29
Today we were traveling home and so I couldn't see how the races turned out until late this evening.  I'd read that the weather was going to turn cold after a cold front moved through that was bringing rain to the area.  But according to the forecasts the rain was coming early in the morning and would end by noon so I was unsure if races would stay on the turf.  And I had picks at Sam Houston Race Park where they had multiple stakes races.  When I turned on my computer after the long drive I discovered it had poured down rain all day locally and all the races came off the turf, so my three turf selections scratched and the only local race was the opener.  Norman's Hero was loose on the lead into the stretch for Javier Castellano and Jorge Navarro and then weakened badly to be eighth.  In the three Sam Houston races, I was a fly second to just miss in the Frontier Turf Stakes with Hogy who was the 1/2 favorite.  Then in the Grade 3 John Connolly going a mile and a half on the turf, I liked Bigger Picture who was one of three for Michael Maker.  He made a strong move entering the back stretch to scoot through on the rail and take command.  He lengthened his lead through the stretch as much the best with my double investment to get me over $20.

In the feature, the race I was waiting for, my "best" of the day, multiple Grade 1 winner I'm A Chatterbox was facing a good, but not a strong field in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic.  But as has been the theme it seems this week, the gates opened and she was slow then squeezed to the back.  Dead last.  Sigh.....she's won from off the pace but this was not what I wanted to see.  She rallied very wide into the lane and was second best, but I thought she should have moved earlier and I give part of the issue on the break to the rider, the normally reliable Florent Geroux.  So it was another disappointing day at the races to conclude the week.  But now next week, we start the march to the Florida Derby as Saturday is Holy Bull Stakes Day and we should see the current Kentucky Derby favorite, my pick in the BC Juvenile when he won, Classic Empire!

Jan. 28: Pegasus World Cup Day Analysis

The world's richest race, the $12 Million Pegasus World Cup highlights a HUGE Saturday of racing.  Seating was priced at nearly $200 to sit in "our section" - typically $20 on a "BIG" day and $50 on Florida Derby Day.  Unlike every day where you park and walk in for free you were required to pre-pay for a parking pass and to simply walk in without a seat cost you $100!  I'll be playing online.  Here's how I see the races unfolding.....

In the opener on this historic day I give an edge to 1-Looking For A Kiss (4/1) who is lightly raced and his connections thought enough of him to try him in three straight graded events last spring after a debut win and a sharp second in his first try vs. winners.  He came back off a six month break to face older and was 2nd, beaten a mere neck three weeks ago.  That was going six panels and I think he'll get a legitimate target to shoot for from mid-pack today for Julian Leparoux.  That's the main concern as he's hit-and-miss as a rider for me from the difficult rail draw.  2-Homespun Hero (3/1) is logical after setting the pace at this level and distance before being caught late.  Note that all his wins have been for a tag.  I look for 10-Fast Friar (10/1) to outrun his odds today.  Lightly raced with only three career starts he's improved his Beyer figures with each start.  That may slip by some observers as he faded to sixth in his most recent.  But that was his first start vs. winners.  Today he's third off the shelf, turns back from a one-turn mile and has potential to improve.

The second may offer a rare opportunity to get a fair price on a Chad Brown turf runner with go-to rider, the top jockey at Gulfstream, Javier Castellano.  1-Dancing Waves (5/1) does not have the Beyer figures that would make him APPEAR to be a win threat compared to the program favorites.  But I'm willing to give her a pass when making her first start in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo after shipping here from Ireland.  She caught a yielding turf that day and take careful note of the first and third finishers......New Money Honey and Coasted.  Those two fillies came back to run 1-2 in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Castellano ALWAYS seems to move up his mounts - when he has a talented thoroughbred to work with.  If we get 3/1 at post time it's a great deal!  3-Sweeping Paddy (5/2) has been consistent, and to be fair all three of her recent figures are better than the figure earned by Dancing Waves.  She buried maidens then 4th in the Grade 3 Jessamine before a fading 8th in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Note however she was 2nd in mid-stretch in that championship event.  Another who could surprise - after all these are three-year-old fillies - is Todd Pletcher's 7-Elandress (6/1) who has go-to Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.  Could be a sneaky good win threat at a price.  6-Dream Dancing (7/2) ran her two best races on the turf in her first two career races.  She's been on three straight graded dirt tries as her connections thought she belonged on the early Oaks trail.  Might surprise here.

The stakes action kicks off here with fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs.  This race will always bring back memories for me of multiple Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll winning her final start in this event.  This year's edition does have much star power outside the top two, and they figure to be the two dueling to the wire late.  I like Todd Pletcher's 1-Genre (7/2) who cuts back to a sprint distance for the first time.  She faced off with 3-Curlin's Approval (6/5) six weeks ago in the Grade 3 Rampart where they were both upset by Pletcher's Eskenformoney (who was my pick as a $13.20 winner).  I thought that day that Curlin's Approval was highly overrated based on her past performances where her big numbers were earned over the summer here against questionable company.  And that proved accurate.  I think that's true again today while Genre appeared vulnerable in the Rampart after having lost to HFC Eskenformoney last year.  Today however I think this gal is in an ideal spot.  I think the rail draw and the pace figures she's run going a one-turn mile make her the speed of the race.  It would be "race track logic" to see 5-You Bought Her (9/2) win today.  I thought she looked best in last week's Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint but her rally came up just short.  She loves this distance but is 0-for-7 here at Gulfstream.....and she comes back in just a week.

Only three of the thirteen sophomore fillies lined up to try this maiden turf event have ever gone this nine furlong distance.  On top of that the "most likely" winner appears to be compromised with the far outside draw.  I'll lean towards 2-Ritzy Rose (4/1) who was a good second in her turf and So Fla start after debuting over the synthetic Woodbine track last October.  John Velazquez agrees to ride for Toronto-based Josie Carroll here.  Really like the huge Beyer jump from the first main-track start to the turf try last out.  13-Jaunt (7/2) has three thirds on her resume, but note that the two back show money finish saw her cross the line FIRST!  That is always a big advantage when facing maidens who have not done so.  Maiden three-year-olds at Gulfstream - is there a Pletcher?  There is!  It's longshot 4-Bee R Bee (10/1) with Javier Castellano.  Oh how that would hurt if those two comine in a 3yo MSW at such a big price!

Todd Pletcher seems to have the big prize surrounded with 6-Madefromlucky (7/2) also in the field.  This guy is much more proven at this nine furlong distance and he's probably going to be overlooked in the betting to some degree after finishing 4th behind his stablemate.  I like his chances today second off the shelf, especially if someone goes with the favorite.  4-Stanford (1/1) is in career form; comes off a decisive score here in the Harlan's Holiday, but have to be honest he coasted on the front end that day.  Could he get away with the same today?  He has won while pressing the pace, so you have to believe that jockey John Velazquez has options with the Todd Pletcher colt.  Probably the biggest edge he has is that IF he ran in the $12 Million Pegasus later this afternoon he'd probably be third choice in the betting.  Not convinced he's worthy of "BET of the Day" as he is for the DRF's Mike Welsch, but do think he's a legitimate favorite.  

A W-I-D-E open affair for lightly raced three-year-olds that could go any of several ways, but I like Todd Pletcher's second time starter, 3-Slaimy (5/1) with Javier Castellano.  In his debut, the $585K sales grad was away last of twelve, but closed with a huge rush to be beaten 1 1/2 lengths.  The extra furlong and a half today should help as will a better break.  Have to believe that the move to Castellano - not that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez is a negative - is a positive as Castellano rules here at Gulfstream in the winter.  13-Snap Decision (6/1) looks the most likely winner on form, but overcoming that post in a full field of fourteen.  Shug McGaughey and Jose Ortiz team up on the son of Hard Spun.  Interesting to see Trevor McCarthy in town for Graham Motion on 5-Just Howard (10/1).  At least once each of the last two winters McCarthy has flown in to ride for Motion and taken home the top prize.  Just Howard goes from a debut dirt sprint to this nine furlong turf race.

The competitive nature of the card continues with the Ladies' Turf Sprint where, again, any one of nearly half a dozen - some listed at prices in the double digits in the program - could win and be no surprise.  Very difficult to separate the contenders, but I'll take the lightly raced 6-Brandy's Girl (10/1) who has top turf rider Jose Lezcano on board.  This filly has a 10/4-1-1 overall including a 5/2-1-1 record at this sprint distance.  I like that she's lightly raced - has potential to run big today - and six of her eight races against winners are in stakes races where she always shows up with a sharp effort.  Today she's second off a layoff of August-to-January.  If able to repeat the race she ran in winning Monmouth's Crank It Up Stakes last June where she sat just off the early pace and scored as the 3/5 favorite, I think she's a legitimate win candidate.  3-Ruby Notion (15/1) won the 2015 Colleen and set the pace into the stretch in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Filly Turf at Keeneland in 2015.  Not been seen since July, but Wesley Ward can have them ready fresh.  10-Triple Chelsea (6/1) came from off the pace to win Tampa's Lightning City at 9/1 and brings her regular rider.  If she gets the trip she'll certainly have pace to chase.  She ran down 11-Nite Delite (9/2) on the final jump but that one gets Paco Lopez today.  Look for this one to be the speed of the speed here and she just might forget to stop.  If 12-Everything Lovely (4/1) can secure a good stalking spot just behind 'Delite, she'd be no surprise with Castellano, but it looks like she'll be fanned wide.  4-Blue Bahaia (10/1) offers an angle that no other filly in here can offer.....she's a perfect 4-for-4 in turf sprints!  Her last out victory earned a speed figure as good as the best number by any of these.  

Today's BEST BET

Anyone who follows Gulfstream in the winter knows that the three-year-old maiden races are the highlight of the season and you can often look back and say that a graded stakes winner got their first start and/or win here.  But without question if you truly follow racing at Gulfstream you KNOW that trainer Todd Pletcher - who's won the training title ELEVEN straight years - excels and rules this place with two kinds of runners.  Three-year-olds coming back off a layoff after a debut win in the summer and maiden first time starting three-year-olds.  Just this past Thursday was a perfect example where my BET of the Day was One Liner - a 3yo coming back off a debut win last July and he scored easily.  The crowd let him go off at better than 4/5 odds and he won for fun allowing me to cash for nearly $100.  Let's hope that today we can get the same kind of result with 3-Blind Ambition (7/2).  This son of champion Tapit was sold for $400K last May and has been firing one bullet after another for Pletcher.  Go to rider Johnny Velazquez gets the mount and should be able to take advantage of the inside positioning to be close up without losing ground and draw off through the turn and turning for home.  Pletcher also sends out 11-Commandeering (5/1).  That neither Castellano or Velazquez stick with this one is a concern and the fact that he was 3/5 at Gulfstream Park West, but faltered behind a stablemate (who came back to win a restricted stakes here) is also a concern.  Castellano takes the assignment on 7-Lunaire (9/2) who was a good third in his Belmont debut and a good second in the mud at Aqueduct.  It's worrisome to me that NEITHER of those races has produced another winner, while the second start by this colt did....and he was badly beaten in that spot.  Not so good against good runners, good against mediocre competition?  If there were no Pletchers in here then I would give top consideration to 8-Lookin for Eight (4/1) who probably would have beat nearly any three-year-old maiden on the grounds, except for the Pletcher crew.  And that was the problem as he ran into a sharp Pletcher winner, but was SEVEN clear of the show colt who was daylight clear of the rest of the field.  But there IS another Pletcher in here and trainer Michael Tomlinson, who conditions Lookin for Eight is 0-for-17 over the last two years with 2nd starting maidens.

In scanning the past performances of 10-Mongolian Saturday (7/2) you will only find five turf sprints at 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs.  The results:  2nd by a head in a Gr 3 with a 100 Beyer; WIN in AOC company with a 100 Beyer; 2nd by a nose in a Gr 3 with a 103 Beyer; WIN in the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint with a 107 Beyer; and a WIN in a Gr 3 at Keeneland (off a three and a half month layoff) with a 98 Beyer.  Last out he was a fading ninth in the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs down the unique hillside course - too far and probably bounced off his win at Keeneland.  Today he comes in with a sharp bullet work against company far lesser than graded winners and should exert his class advantage to a victory.  Note that his regular rider is in town to take the assignment.  BIG TIME.  Now, let's scan down the pps of 11-Power Alert (4/1) - the first thing of note is that he's a 10-for-29 lifetime winner and 19/8-4-1 at this distance.  But in his twelve races showing there are only three wins showing dating back to June 2015.....AND THEY ARE ALL HERE!  He is a perfect 4-for-4 over the Gulfstream inner course and that alone makes him dangerous.  Hasn't seen anyone like the top one however.  Look for Javier Castellano to lay down the early gauntlet on 2-Manhattan Dan (9/2) who is pure speed and challenge everyone else to come and catch him.  His last two starts - last March and April, here, saw him run :43.4 and :43.1 for the opening half mile.  I think he sets a similar pace today with Mongolian Saturday just outside of him, then the long layoff catches up to him and the class advantage of the Breeders' Cup champ kicks him to the wire and the win!

On speed figures and more importantly on class this Grade 3 at the marathon mile and a half distance goes strictly through 7-Arles (7/2) and 12-Suffused (3/1).  They faced each other last summer in the Grade 3 Glen Falls at Saratoga going eleven furlongs and were separated by 3/4 of a length when Suffused won - it was daylight back to the rest of the field.  Won't be surprised to see a similar result here, but today it's Arles' turn.  Never been a big believer in weight as a handicapping factor, but it is a consideration that in the Glen Falls Suffused carried the same 118 pounds as did Arles.  Today Suffused is bumped up to 123 while Arles loses a pound.  It's not the six pound differential as much as they were evenly weighted and NOW are separated by weight - going another furlong and a half.  Secondly, Arles gets the much better post draw of the two today.  Suffused would apparently have the class edge having just missed in the Grade 1 EP Taylor at Woodbine at 7/1 - beaten a nose; while Arles comes off a nose defeat at Del Mar in a Grade 3 as the even money favorite.  I think it's telling that in looking down Suffused's past performances the only decisive win came at a mile and 15/16th while in every other start she's either been beaten or was in a life-or-death situation.  Given the weight shift, the outside post, and that factor, I believe Arles is the one to fear most.  3-Try Your Luck (10/1) will be closer to the pace than either of the top two and it's noteworthy that her career best figure (92) was earned the only other time Florent Geroux was on board.  A step forward off that effort and/or a step backwards by the top two would make 'Luck a major player.

The companion marathon turf event for the boys is the prelude to the featured event.  Chad Brown always has his best turf runners primed for big efforts here over the winter and it's his 10-Mr. Maybe (6/1) who gets top billing for me.  With go-to and four-time riding king Javier Castellano on board I think they are a perfect fit here.  Note the consistency in speed figures:  98-98-98-96-104-101.  Any of those last three win here, but either of the triple digits and he's a daylight winner.  His last was a close enough fourth over yielding ground when chasing loose-on-the-lead graded stakes winner Heart to Heart through glacial splits of :51.2 and 1:16 - no one catches Heart to Heart after those fractions.  I also believe that 4-Danish Dynaformer (5/1) is an excellent fit here.  The only time he faced Gr 3 company he was a winner at Woodbine as the 9/5 favorite and was 2nd best in the Gr 3 Red Smith at Aqueduct while outfinishing Grade 1 winner Wake Forest.  Been off since that November try.  On any other course I might give him the edge, but Gulfstream's turf often is much kinder to stalkers and pressers than to deep closers like this guy.  6-Charming Kitten (9/2) looks to give Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith the first half of the late double, as he'll have an excellent shot at the second half in the featured event.  Charming Kitten ran for Todd Pletcher through last January and compiled a local resume of 8/4-2-0. 

It is horse racing, and so anything can happen.  And that was the way many people approached the $5 Million Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic.  But on paper and logically it looked to be a virtual match race between 1-Arrogate (7/5) and 12-California Chrome (6/5).  That afternoon, over a Santa Anita main track where Chrome has been unbeatable, he had the picture-perfect dream trip and opened up by daylight over the lightly raced three-year-old.  But through the final furlong it was Arrogate who not only won, but ran right by the recently voted 2016 Horse of the Year.  It doesn't help the champ's case that he drew the outside post, but he's come from off the speed before to be fair.  And in this field there are at least two who will say I HAVE to have the front end.  So as they hit the backside I see Arrogate as saving ground in third or fourth while California Chrome is probably three or four wide while even or maybe a length in front.  But when the "race is on" from the mid-point on the turn it's these two who once again will lay it down to the wire.  Arrogate, I think, has just begun to show us what kind of raw talent he has.  While this is the farewell song for California Chrome and we've probably seen his best.  The nine furlongs may work in his favor, and especially if he gets a clean trip to the front while Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith has to wait for room to get off the fence.  But in the end I think it makes little difference, Arrogate is just better.  And then there is the possibility that Smith, with the rail simply says "I'm on the best and fastest horse in the race - I'm going right out of the gate."  The last time he did that he broke the 150+ year track record winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes while drawing away like no one else was in the race.

January 21: Sunshine Millions Day

I enjoyed the day - and I particularly enjoyed spending the day at the races with my buddy Keith.  But I have to say that it was more than a touch frustrating that I had a 12-for-34 day at the track (35%) and managed to lose money.  And it was disappointing that I didn't hit ANY of the Sunshine Million stakes events.  I typically do pretty well on those.  But as I told Keith before we got there - there were not any real "solid" selections, but they were all good "betting races."  Here's how the day played out......

The first bet of the day came in the Gulfstream opener, an entry level allowance sprinting five furlongs on the turf.  I thought it was a wide-open affair where I went with Goodbye Sorrow who was was a front runner that if able to duplicate the :43.2 half mile she'd put up in an earlier win here over this course would be long gone.  She had to work a little harder to get the front, but was clear into the stretch and held on to mid-stretch before being caught, but she saved the place - not that this helped my win bet ticket.  At Tampa I thought the opener, a non-winners of three lifetime, was a virtual match-race between Tribal Dance and Sonoma Crush.  I preferred the latter who'd earned big figures in a MSW win at the Fair Grounds and then in an entry level allowance here.  My concern was why they were dropping in for a 3L tag when after the entry-level allowance they could move to a second level allowance?  When I discovered Tribal Dance scratched I upped the bet and watched 'Sonoma "crush" the field under a hand ride as the prohibitive 1/5 chalk.  In the opener at Laurel Barin had two recent figures of 50 & 47 which are nothing special, but against a field where a 33 was the top number he looked much the best.  Sent off at 3/5 he couldn't even get second as he finished third under the wire.  The third at Gulfstream was the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf and my top choice scratched.  As Keith and I sat in the paddock I told him that the winner was CLEARLY going to be one of the two favorites and after the race you could make a solid case for either - but before the race you had to question BOTH of them.  Frosty Friday, who I ended up going with was coming off an entry level allowance win and had Javier Castellano.  So you could say she was improving and had found just the right field to beat in her stakes debut.  Because the post-time favorite was Grade 3 winner Family Meeting who won that graded event at Del Mar in November 2015....and had not won since!  But, if she wins you could say that her only competition was a last-out allowance winner (who'd been 6/1 that day) making her stakes debut.  The two of them duked it out through the lane and in the final strides it was Family Meeting who scored - second, again.  The fourth at Gulfstream was the Sunshine Millions Distaff, cut back to six furlongs this year.  You Bought Her looked to be sitting on a big effort with the perfect pace flow to come from off the pace.  John Velazquez had her perfectly rated to the stretch, she swung out with a full head of steam and Keith and I were certain we were about to blow by.  But instead she could not get by the winner and finished second - again - just missing :(  

At Tampa Chance of Luck was a perfect 2-for-2 heading into this the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs.  That he'd won his maiden at Laurel at this distance and then won HERE in the Inagural Stakes showed he was clearly the one to beat.  As I remarked in my analysis I wouldn't blame you for looking elsewhere, but no one looked like a legitimate threat.  Sent off at 7/5 he was wide throughout and was simply outfinished......second, again.  At Aqueduct Flick of an Eye was a winner vs. $50K 3-lifetime runners then tried back-to-back allowance events.  Today he was back in for a tag, an open $25K and it looked like the perfect spot.  Right to the front and long gone as the 6/5 favorite.  I was third at the Fair Grounds at 7/2 in a second level allowance but KNEW I'd be getting my first winner at Gulfstream in their fifth, a Maiden Special for 3yo.  No, not a Pletcher runner, but as good an angle.  Northern had debuted at Saratoga where only the most highly regarded 2-year-olds run.  He was second best that day in an OPEN Maiden Special behind a colt named Practical Joke.  That guy exited his maiden victory to win the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga, the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont and finished his 2yo season with a strong third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  Steady works for trainer Wesley Ward said his colt was ready to roll.  As I told Keith afterwards, if I were the owner or trainer I'd be shooting jockey Tyler Gafflione.  Off the layoff with CLEARLY the best horse he dueled through a wicked :21 and change and :44 and change pace with a double-digit long shot.  Sure he won that battle but by mid-stretch his colt was dead tired.  Off the board 4th at 3/5.  WOW.  The first page of selections came to a close when at Laurel O Dionysus was sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite in their Frank Whitely Stakes for three-year-olds going seven furlongs and he could not hold on - 2nd, yet again.  First race on page two of the selections was the Marshua Stakes for three-year-olds, again at Laurel - this going six furlongs.  Star Super had thought enough to try the Grade 1 Frizette last fall but that was too much.  All her other efforts were sharp and were in stakes.  She exited a best-of-the-rest 2nd while over half a dozen clear of the show filly and had top Maryland rider Trevor McCarthy.  Forged to the front turning for home, but instead of accelerating away the second choice came to her and they dueled throughout the stretch..... 

So close, but I was the winner!  Whew!  Tripled the bet on the even 1/2 favorite, so I cashed for a little over $20.  In Gulfstream's sixth, the Sunshine Millions Sprint, again I thought it was wide-open.  But Awesome Banner was dropping out of a sharp effort in the Grade 1 Malibu in So Cal AND was a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a local record of 9/6-2-0.  I did not like the favorite, Delta Bluesman who just looked to be on the decline - and I was right about that as he faded late.  But Awesome Banner could not get to the winner, Early Entry who I had named as my third choice and noted that IF he could run back to his back-to-back triple digits of his last two races - though those were a YEAR ago - he'd be tough.  He did, and he was at 4/1 under Paco Lopez while I was third at 9/5.  Missed at Tampa where Realism had the perfect trip in a MSW turf event for 3yo.  The Bill Mott trainee was coming off a debut at Saratoga but had no late run - fourth at 5/2.  Missed at Tampa again whee I had solidly priced Royal jewelry at 7/2 and did not like the favorite, No Fault of Mine who had run in four graded stakes in her last five starts, but all on the turf.  This, the Wayward Lass Stakes was on the main track.  On the far turn Royal Jewelry swept to the lead and opened up by daylight.  I am home free I thought.....then No Fault of Mine came flying through the stretch to get up in the final strides.....second again.  Racing at the Fair Grounds today was a series of stakes races which featured their first legs towards the Louisiana Derby and Fair Grounds Oaks with several supporting stakes.  The first of which was up next, the D.F. Kenner stakes, a sprint going six furlongs.  Holy Boss was a graded stakes winner but had not been out in several months, so I gave the upset edge to Yockey's Warrior who had run recently and won locally.  But that one scratched.  I thought that was basically a "gimme" to Holy Boss so I made him my double investment play.  He dueled to the top of the lane and then showed why he's a graded stakes winner as he drew off easily as the 2/5 favorite.  

I was a good second at a big 5/1 at Aqueduct - yes, second again.  Next up was another stakes event, this one from Laurel, the Native Dancer.  Page McKenney was the defending champion and loves this course with a 13/5-4-1 local record and even better at this mile and a sixteenth distance (9/7-2-0).  His numbers from his "most recent" were best in the field, but the concern was his last start was in April.  Would he fire right out of the gate?  He was a generous 7/5 - I thought that was more than fair - and made his move spinning out of the turn.  He got to the front and was grinding his way to the wire.  You could just tell the way the old pro was running that maybe it wasn't his "sparkling best" effort but he was NOT going to let anyone get by him today!  

The triple investment meant I'd be due a payout of close to $40.  Next up was the 8th at Gulfstream and it turned out to be the story of the day!  Funny how that works out with all the stakes action and it's a non-winners of two lifetime, a turf sprint - which typically I'm not as good at handicapping as well.  In the lineup here of ten runners only one horse, Black Eagle had NEVER seen two-lifetime company.  Running for Bill Mott with John Velazquez up, he looked solid.  Also his first nine races had been in two-turn routes and had showed little.  But when given the chance to sprint on the turf AND got Velazquez up in a Saratoga sprint he won and came right back to be close in a Belmont turf sprint.  The Beyers of 77 and 79 would win this easily.  I also noted earlier in the day when Gulfstream analyst Ron Nicoletti showed his Pick-5 ticket he SINGLED Black Eagle!  Probably going to hurt his 6/1 program price.  But at post time he was a solid and big 4/1.  As the field hit the far turn however he was still near the back.  I had my camera on, but was about to turn it off when track announcer Pete Aiello called that the front runner was tiring and several were coming, including "Black Eagle making a big move down the middle of the track...."  It was a blanket finish, but the front runner had clearly held on, who was 2nd, 3rd and 4th seemed to be the only question.  But as the camera zoomed on the apparent winner Aiello announced, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets as there IS a steward's inquiry into the stretch run involving the unofficial winner and a claim of foul by the third place finisher....."  As soon as they showed the head-on it was oh-so-obvious that the winner had drifted out about eight lanes and clearly slammed into the #3 horse who was inside of me.  I'd had no trouble, but when the photo came up for who was 2nd, it was me.  Now the inquiry was a significant affair for me.  They kept showing the replay and showing both the "winner" and Black Eagle circling around waiting for the decision.  I kept thinking that while I knew it was unlikely, I could just imagine Nicoletti in the stewards booth saying "that's my single you better take down the winner!"  It took nearly ten minutes until finally Aiello called out, "Ladies and Gentlemen.......(dramatic pause)........we have a disqualification....."  YES!  

And the $10.80 payoff combined with my triple investment meant the stewards had awarded me with over $80!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I really thought I was about to go on a roll because the next race, the 9th at Gulfstream was my "BEST" of the Day locally.  Chad Brown was sending out What's In A Kiss to run 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf in an entry level allowance for sophomores.  Top go-to rider Javier Castellano was to ride.  This filly was shipping in from Europe where she'd had a win, two thirds and a just-miss fourth in a Group Stakes behind a multiple Group winner last out.  Was near the back - too far I thought, but was gobbling up ground into the far turn when her running lane was shut off; had to hit the brakes, then alter course before re-rallying.  But the trouble was already done - third at 3/2.  That hurts.  Ran 4th in the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds at 2/1 with Iron Fist when he hung - only had the minimum bet.  But then I rattled off three wins in a row!  At Tampa, their co-feature was the Gasparilla for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs.  R Angel Katelyn had already won three of four starts including TWO stakes races, one of which was the six furlong Sandpiper here.  Figured to be very tough.  She was even money and stalked the leader to the turn, cruised by and was clear by daylight when the second choice made a run.  You could see it - at the furlong pole BOTH fillies had had enough and they staggered home with both weaving around the track.  The 2nd place finisher was a good three lengths back at the wire, but at one point the rider did seem to take up on her when Katelyn veered outward.  Sure enough the win was on hold while an objection and inquiry took place.  Is it possible for me to survive TWO inquiries - one in my favor and one not upheld, also in my favor?  YES!  WHOOO HOOO!

While the $30 I cashed for wasn't even half the $81 on the GP inquiry win, I was still delighted with the way the racing stewards were ruling today!  Right after the ruling was made official at Tampa I met Keith in the stands to watch My Girl Corey run in the 10th at Gulfstream.  This was a non-winners of one allowance and this filly was also sent out by Chad Brown.  She was lightly raced and had yet to run a bad one.  After winning a dirt sprint debut she just missed in her first try vs. winners in a dirt, one-turn mile while ELEVEN clear of the show.  Moved to the turf last out at Aqueduct she was second, beaten half a length by a 4x turf winner.  Castellano was not riding this filly, or anyone else in the field so I wasn't going all in.  Local top rider Tyler Gafflione (who had not ridden well on Northern earlier) was the jockey.  She rallied from mid-pack and was grinding away.  At the top of the stretch I thought she'd go right on by, but by mid-stretch I would have given you my ticket as she looked to be hanging.  But in the final 16th she had one more push and got by in the shadow of the wire!

My double investment returned nearly $20.  I walked in to cash my ticket and saw the slow-motion replay from the third at Santa Anita......yep, that's number five, my filly and DRF's Brad Free's "best" of the day winning a starter allowance by daylight.  Another near-$20 for me!  A month ago I had been surprised when Chocolate Ride had run a close fourth in a Fair Grounds stakes.  But I was willing to give him one and figured he'd run big time today in defending his Grade 3 Colonel ER Bradley title.  A no-show 6th at even money.  Sigh.....what's the deal with my "best bets" today?  This made me a little antsy about the next pick - my "BET of the Day" at Tampa in an entry level allowance on Earring.  This filly towered over the field and as I wrote, a loss here would be an "epic upset."  I was more convinced when the only filly in the field that looked to have a legitimate chance scratched out.  She came calling for the lead on the turn and ran away handily!  WHOOO HOOOO!  It's not the payoff, but as I often say that I put up big money to make my statement that this horse was a big-time winner!

No sooner was it official than Princess Ashlyn edged clear at Santa Anita in a nw2L sprint.  My eleventh winner of the afternoon.  Disappointed when Go Around set sail on the lead for Bill Mott and Javier Castellano in the Sunshine Millions Turf but gave way late to be 4th at 9/5.  Untapped did not live up to her big sister's reputation (Untapable) when fading to fifth in the Fair Grounds Silverbulletday Stakes, the first leg towards the Fair Ground Oaks.  I made my last six bets and Keith and I headed for home.  The first of those was the Grade 2 Santa Monica for older fillies & mares at Santa Anita.  The star attraction was Finest City who was last seen winning the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  But as Brad Free pointed out, nearly all BC champs fail to run well in their first start after the World Championships.  Still, on paper she just looked tons, TONS the best.  She battled on the lead, while well in hand and drew off as much the best.

Only risked a double investment so I didn't make a lot of money on the 2/5 favorite, but a win is a win.  But that was it for the day.....Camboida third at 2/1 in the Fair Grounds' Marie Krantz Memorial; Awesome Slew third as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in the Sunshine Millions Classic; Takeoff took the lead in the stretch in the Grade 3 Lecomte for 3yo colts at the Fair Grounds at a big 6/1 with my double investment.......faded to third.  Sigh......then Town Champ was third at 9/5 in the 7th at Santa Anita, a MSW and Denman's Call was third at 3/1 in the 8th out west in my final pick.

So for the day I was 12-for-34 and lost a little.  I always think it's OK when I lose if I can look back and say one or two races a 2nd or 3rd place finisher that would have won would have made the difference.  And that was the case here.

Sunshine Millions Recap

Week 8

Wednesday January 18

I didn't have a bet until the 4th, but oh how I wish I'd played the Wednesday opener.  Call to Honor was placed in four stakes races at Woodbine this summer, and today marked his first start for a tag AND first time in 2-lifetime company.  He was 6/1 in the program and I decided to watch.  Won and paid over $20.  Sigh......  I also had the 6/5 favorite winner of the third.  In the fourth my top three selections were Bradley's Sunrise, Intractable and Backsplash in a maiden claiming event on the turf going a mile.  Bradley's Splash was 9/2 and made a serious bid before being outfinished by.....yes, Intractable and Backsplash.  All around it :(  In the fifth, another maiden claiming event, this one going six furlongs I noted that any of the three Beyer figures earned by Mark Casse's Make Me in hierKentucky races would win today.  Liked the fact that the 5-year-old mare was dropping out of MSW company for the first time today on dirt.  Last out in a $35K turf would be a good tightener for this sprint.  Pressed the pace three wide as the prohibitive favorite then drew off convincingly under jockey Jose Lezcano.  

My double investment returned just over $15.  Came right back in the sixth, on the turf in a 3L claiming event with Chief Kitten - a Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner for Michael Maker.  Too far back, rallied belatedly without making an impact while my third choice, Refer won and paid $7.40.  My top pick - no bet - in the 7th ran out of the money but in the 8th, another nw2L I put Dolittle Raiders on top as the "best of a bad group" - had a bullet work for Nick Zito and was my SECOND $20 winner of the day, both of which I didn't bet.  WOW.  I did bet the ninth where Island Therapy was a big 12/1 in a starter allowance.  Was 2nd as they turned for home and I thought maybe......stopped badly to be sixth.  In the finale I thought Jorge Navarro's Casby's Kid would run well in a turf sprint for maiden claimers.  Was 5/1 and didn't run a step.  So one lone win to start the week, and that with a 3/5 favorite while not one but TWO $20 winners won without a bet.

Thursday January 19

Our buddy Keith arrived last night and today he was headed down to the Keys for an overnight stay.  So I thought I'd take advantage of the nice weather and drive out to Gulfstream for the afternoon while picking up my Florida Derby tickets.  Nineteen have committed  to the Derby Day adventure and I was fortunate enough to be able to consolidate the tickets into more of a block arrangement.  I've had a cough and been worn down, along with still recovering from the back issues, and by the time I'd picked up my tickets I decided I really didn't want to stand around for a couple of hours waiting for the races to come up.  So I made my bets on the Gulfstream races and on the races I'd handicapped from both the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn and headed home after watching just one live race.  In the one live race I saw my top pick, Facade swung to the front as the turned for home at 9/5 but was caught in deep stretch by the 6/5 favorite, who I didn't like.  When I got home I was able to pull up the replay for the third at Gulfstream.  It was a no-conditions allowance race going a one-turn mile.  Mo Green was dropping out of consecutive stakes tries and she was my top pick.  Her last was a sharp second coming off a four month layoff and finishing behind a sharp winner while Mo Green was clear of the rest of the field.  Paco Lopez had the mount and he'd ridden her three times to a win and two seconds.  Finally, in my opinion she'd seen MUCH stronger company than today's rivals.  She was inside right behind the pace to the turn and looked to split horses, but nothing opened, so when they turned for home Lopez took her back inside and she burst up the rail to take the lead.  A stretch duel to the wire ensued with my third choice but on the wire I was the narrow winner!  

The price was a fair 9/5 so I cashed for nearly $30.  I also had the winner in the opener at Oaklawn where Friend of Liberty ran to her even money odds.  The fifth at Gulfstream was a 3-lifetime race going a one-turn mile.  Last time out I'd been all over Over the Limit and he'd wired the 2L field for Jorge Navarro.  I thought there was other speed today and he was stepping up in class so I went with Gran Identidad who would be coming late at a price.  That was all true as he rallied strongly at 5/1, but was second best behind Over the Limit who ran away again.  In the sixth I tripled the bet on Nassau Talent who was 3/5 at post time for Ken & Sarah Ramsey on the turf.  Right there pressing the leader ready to run away at the top of the lane.......evenly to the wire, 4th.  I thought for sure I had the winner in the 7th, a maiden claimer for 3yo on the turf and I took top jockey Javier Castellano on KLS Forty Three who was dropping from $50K to $35K.  Like Nassau Talent I was right there turning for home but didn't have a closing kick, faded to fifth at 7/2.  Looked like this would be just another week day where I was close without winning when the runners lined up for the 8th which was my "BEST" of the day.  Check out my analysis..... 

Well the first thing that went wrong was when the gates sprung open More Mia was off a step slowly and suddenly was sixth behind a line of horses.  This can't be good, and with very little ground to make a recovery in a five furlong sprint.  Seemed to be running evenly until the top of the lane and then the long-time leader began to shorten stride while a line of runners were surging to the front.  It was a WILD finish and just fifty yards out my nose was in front....bobbing heads, PHOTO FINISH!  I, and track announcer Pete Aiello both thought More Mia was the winner, and the photo confirmed it.  But the best part - check out the price my friends...... 

That's right, $9.00 to win and with my "prime time" ticket that meant I'd cash for $90!  Right back in the fifth at the Fair Grounds where Sweet Halory scored at 9/5 for my fourth win on the afternoon.  If I'd been patient enough to hang around at the races I would have been enjoying a very nice afternoon!  But then reality returned as I missed on my last six selections - a second, three times third, and a fourth all ate into my profits.  But for the day I was still a good 4-for-14, nearly 30% and had a profit of nearly $10.  I'll take it for a weekday.  Check out the video replay of More Mia's exciting win....

Thursday's BEST Bet:  More Mia

Friday January 20

Off the nice day at the races I was hoping to build momentum for the big afternoon at the track Saturday today.  I only had four selections on the card.  In the third, a no-conditions allowance I liked Chad Brown's Saham with top rider Javier Castellano coming off the layoff.  Sent off at 4/1, a generous price I thought, he sat off the pace in fifth and ran evenly to the wire to finish fourth.  I came back with unbeaten Worth Avenue in a 3yo entry-level allowance sprint in the fourth.  Pressed the pace to the stretch, forged to the front, but was outfinished late, third by a decisive half dozen.  Passed the fifth - the winner of the maiden claiming turf event paid nearly $60 ... no, not on my list of contenders :)  In the sixth it was another maiden claiming event and it was hard to bet "real money" on Singelton for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey because he was already 0-for-10 and had finished third in BOTH his last two starts at short odds.  But today did mark the first time that he was under the care of Michael Maker and he was plunging from $30K to $12.5K.  And I really didn't care for any of his rivals.  Sent off at a prohibitive 1/5 he ran like a Breeders' Cup champion today drawing off by daylight, under wraps for Luis Saez.

My double investment returned a mere $13.00  My last bet was a minimum play in the 7th, a five furlong turf sprint for older maiden specials.  I liked Christophe Clement's Tu Exageres with Castellano.  Off very slowly but flying late to be second at 4/1.  Sigh.....  So I finished just 1-for-4 on the day.  But tomorrow is Sunshine Millions Day!

Click HERE to read today's journal

You can check out the individual blog on this big Saturday where Keith and I made an all-out attack on the races.  The short version is that I won with TWELVE selections, nearly 40% and had some nice stakes wins.  But I only won with two at Gulfstream.  However, one of those was the story of the day!  In the 8th, a non-winners of two lifetime turf sprint I liked Bill Mott's Black Eagle.  He was the ONLY one in the field he'd not run in two-lifetime company.  As they turned for home he was way back but hit another gear and he was F-L-Y-I-N-G on the outside.....so close, PHOTO finish!  But no, the front running leader had barely held on.  The photo revealed I was at least second.  But then, wait a tic, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets there is a steward's inquiry into the stretch run and it involves the unofficial winner!"  It was about a ten minute wait, but from the first look at the head-on view the only people who were no certain the "winner" was coming down were those who had tickets on that unofficial winner.  Sure enough, even though the interference was with the third place horse and had nothing to do with me, Black Eagle was promoted to the winner.  And check out the price, oh my!

My triple investment returned over $80!  I felt badly that Keith, despite having my selection sheet, decided to go his own way all day and unfortunately cashed only a couple of small tickets.  But we did enjoy spending the day at the races under the beautiful Florida "winter" skies.

Sunshine Millions Video Recap

Sunday January 22
A MOST Amazing Day!

It's so ironic how handicapping works - it's what makes someone like me just love this game.  I had spent HOURS over two days time handicapping six different racing cards - Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Laurel, Tampa, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream - for Saturday and had come up with thirty-four selections...from which I won with a dozen as noted above.  Comparatively, I spent about an hour looking at the Sunday card for Gulfstream; came up with six races and WON three of them AND cashed for over $60 profit on the day!  Go figure!  Here's the final day of the week went down.  I passed the opener where all the runners had already lost at this basement level, 2-lifetime level.  It's worth noting that I was "right" that it was a toss-up/chaos race as the winner was 80/1, the runner-up was nearly 60/1, and the "short-priced" show horse was "only" 8/1.  The 1/5 favorite was fourth leading to these payouts:  $169.80 to win; $2 exacta paid $2,044; $2 trifecta paid $8,900!  WOW.  I also passed the second which had a more reasonable 3/1 winner.  In the third race it was a 3yo maiden claiming event going six furlongs.  I've learned, often the hard way, that Todd Pletcher makes Gulfstream his personal playground with ALL 3yo maidens.  Don't be fooled that this was a maiden claiming event - there was a debuting runner, Coors Lute and it had top go-to rider John Velazquez on board.  To the far turn he was fifth of six runners, but began gathering momentum while circling the field.  He caught the leaders at the top of the lane and continued his sustained run to score going away.  My first winner of the day!  Ironic that yesterday I had told Keith that Saturday was an unusual day with very few runners from the top Pletcher barn, and here we are with a Pletcher winner right away on Sunday.

The generous $6.80 payoff led me to collect nearly $35 to start my Sunday!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I tabbed Winning for Sarah in a starter optional claiming sprint in the fourth, but she was only third at 4/1.  The fifth was another 3yo maiden sprint.  Yes, there was a Pletcher filly and this one had all the credentials to add to the pile of future star sophomores who break their maiden at first asking for Pletcher at Gulfstream during the Championship Meet.  Ghalia was a $600K Keeneland sales grad that had been working steadily since October for her debut today.  There were a few who'd run well enough in earlier starts that you might think their experience would beat the Pletcher filly.  But my money was on Ghalia and jockey John Velazquez, again.  She broke a step slowly and the 2nd choice on the board sprinted to the front.  Before they'd gone through the first 16th of a mile Velazquez had his filly pressing that leader.  By the time they arrived at the first call she was easing to the lead and with each passing pole she extended that margin to win in a dazzling debut.  Future stakes star is my guess for this one.  Unfortunately the crowd saw what I did and sent her off as a prohibitive 3/5 favorite.

But, I'd tripled the bet so I would be collecting for nearly $25 on my second win, and the second of the day for Team Pletcher!  I passed the sixth and the seventh.  I did write for the seventh that I couldn't understand how anyone could bet the likely odds-on favorite, Adagio who was 0-for-11 with SIX losses as the favorite to date.  Already second twice at this basement level as well.  But I did consider that I'd taken Singleton on Friday in a similar situation.  Still, no bet for me.  Like that Friday winner Adagio drew off at even money.  The eighth was a maiden 3yo race on the turf.  YES there WAS a Pletcher filly.  The first few years that I handicapped daily at Gulfstream I knew like everyone SHOULD know that Pletcher 3yo on the dirt are nearly always "money in the bank" - especially debut runners and comebackers off a long break.  But his numbers on the turf are not nearly as good.  But it didn't take me long to learn that while he doesn't win at the same high rate on the grass, often he does win at out-of-proportion prices considering it's Pletcher-at Gulfstream-with a three-year-old.  Such was the case here in the eighth where Adorable Miss was his filly.  I thought it was most telling that top turf trainer Chad Brown sent out Abbreviate and his go-to rider, Javier Castellano had opted to ride the Pletcher filly.  Hmmmm.  As heads turned for home it was these two fillies dueling to the wire.  But Brown's filly couldn't get by Castellano on Adorable Miss.  And what was MOST "adorable" was the price......

Yes, oh my, $11 win payout so that my third winner on the day, my third maiden 3yo from the Todd Pletcher barn, paid me $55!  What a wonderful day!  The only thing that kept today from probably being THE highlight day of the meet to date was that my "BEST" of the day in the 9th - a Chad Brown filly on the turf with Javier Castellano - Puissant - was wide through the final turn while the filly she'd be running with throughout the race waited for room on the inside and got through to win - I was fourth.  After a loss in the finale at 2/1 I added up the figures on the day......six selections, three wins, and a profit of $63!  What a great way to end the week!