Wednesday January 11
Only had three selections to start the second week of January. I liked Me and Mine in the third, but liked her a lot more when saw that DRF's Mike Welsch made her his "best" of the day. Not that I find his picks reliable enough to change my betting/selection, but he's typically anti-chalk and if he liked this one that much it was worthy of a close look. The only issue would be if she'd break with the field today. She did not and my second choice won as the 4/5 favorite while the crowd let Me and Mine go at 2/1 - they knew. In the fifth, a nine furlong turf event I remarked that you could go any of a number of ways. I went with Bill Mott's Lead Along, who the crowd sent off as the 8/5 favorite. Evenly near the back, never fired. AGAIN my second choice, Inchargeofme won - paid $10.80. Sigh. My "best" of the day came in the day's sixth. This was a contentious Maiden Special for sophomores going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I wouldn't have argued with any one of a number of these if you liked them, but I liked Chad Brown with Javier Castellano on Enchanting Kitten. Debuting here - a strong Brown angle, who's always tough on the turf, especially here, and MOST especially with Castellano. Add in the Ramseys as the owners and it's even better. Even though Castellano had her near the back it looked to me like she was full of run and would be a serious threat to win. The problem came as he began his bid on the turn - the only way to the front would be to circle the field! SIX wide into the stretch she was rolling and she easily inhaled the leaders and drew off!
The best part....the crowd let her go off at a generous 2/1, paying $6.20. So my triple investment returned well over $45 and I was a winner on the day!
Thursday January 12
On today's card there were four races that appealed to me. The opener was a nw2L event on the turf and my top choice was Regal Kitten who'd never raced for a tag with the exception of when dropped in for a maiden claiming tag and had WON. Entered this $30K event dropping out of a $50K starter allowance, so it was no surprise he was sent off as the 7/5 favorite. Towards to back early, made a middle move and then nothing - 8th of nine. Passed the second and third - although, the third was a 2L turf route like the opener and my top choice won and paid $8.60 - so often it's not about picking the winner, it's about which ones to bet on :( Passed the fourth, again my top choice won and paid over eight dollars. The fifth I DID bet my top choice, Chad Brown's Consumer Confidence on the turf with Javier Castellano. The even money favorite prompted the pace to the stretch then faded to fifth. So let's see.......five races - had two $8 and change winners, didn't bet either; the two I DID bet were short priced favorites, and they didn't hit the board. That's right, that's what's happened so far. When I handicapped the sixth I put The Son of Wind on top who'd run back-to-back sharp tries in open allowance company and was dropping in here for a "beaten" tag. I began writing on my second choice, Mach My Day when it seemed like "track logic" that the conditions of the race were for ".....non winners of three or who haven't won a race since July 21...." and I made note that Mach My Day had last won on July 15 AND had Javier Castellano on board today. Flipped my picks - sent off 4/1 was sixth early, made a mild bid and then nothing. The runaway winner - yes, that's right, had it and changed my mind as The Son of Wind paid $6.40. Passed the 8th and 9th and both my top choices were short prices and didn't come close. The ninth brought back memories of my early handicapping career when THE "mortal lock" to look for was simply, Bill Mott-Off Layoff-On Turf; and back then if Jerry Bailey was up kiss that field good-night! Well Canadian Flyer was Mott-Layoff-Turf and current go-to rider Jose Lezcano. My one reservation was this was a turf sprint, not a route and I tend to have a more difficult time picking the winners in turf sprints. Had not been seen since July, but that had been a KEY race at Saratoga and Mott had prepped Canadian Flyer with bullet works. Right to the front and long gone!
The best part was he was nearly 3/1 so the $7.80 payoff with my double investment meant I'd collect almost $40 and made a profit! Sometimes it's not about the win percentage but about making a profit. :)
Today was Opening Day at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas and I am planning to play their races frequently leading up to their closing weekend which features the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on Friday and a stakes-laden Saturday card on Grade 1 Arkansas Derby Day because Kim and I are going there for a long weekend and meeting our buddy Keith. I played four races on the card and only won with one of them, but the winner, Half Dome Dude was an Oaklawn 40% Club play and went off at better than 3/1 so I made a profit on my Oaklawn selections. At Gulfstream I passed the first two, tabbed Shifty Kitten in the third - a 3-lifetime turf route.....an even third at 2/1. The fifth was my next pick where I went with Chad Brown's Warranty on the turf with Javier Castellano. Was moving with a winning bid on the turn, clipped heels and almost went down. Evenly to the wire as the 7/5 favorite finishing seventh. I never seriously considered the winner but it was sent out by Todd Pletcher at Gi-NORMOUS odds of 18/1 and paid $39.80.....oh to have just bet the Pletcher horses blindly! Passed the sixth, seventh, and eighth. In the ninth I liked Here's to Mike who had several angles to like. Paco Lopez for Jane Cibelli. Moved three wide to the lead into the lane then was all out to hold on, but win he did for my lone victory locally.
At 9/5 I cashed for a little less than $15 on the minimum play. In the finale Disco Man was a huge 9/1 with Castellano - which was why I bet.....how many times does Castellano ride in a cheap maiden claimer, much less the finale of the day? As they turned for home on the turf he moved to the lead and I was thinking how smart I was to play this race when he floated wide and stopped badly to be 10th.
It was a great day as I won with TEN selections, including FIVE at Gulfstream, two of them graded stakes (there were three on the card); won with my BEST of the day at Gulfstream when Todd Pletcher's Run and Go debuted to score convincingly at an amazing $7.60; and with the BET of the Day in Santa Anita's Grade 2 La Canada on Vale Dori.
I collected nearly $25 on the 6/5 favorite. After passing the sixth I had added investments in three of the last four and felt confident I'd win with at least two of them, nearly certain in the finale. In the 7th Sawyer was a big 9/2 price in an entry level allowance and was held at the back way too long before launching his bid - belated 6th without a threatening moment. In the 9th Performance Bonus for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano trailed from the moment the gates opened in a 2x allowance - made worse by the fact that my second choice scored at nearly $7. And in the finale, a MSW turf sprint it was a Bill Mott 2nd time starter who'd run big at first asking - which Mott's horses never do. Happy Wanderer was the heavy 4/5 favorite. Off just a beat slow but right there on the turn, made a move then nothing.....5th. One win on the day - disappointing.
Why would you bet this guy - and up the investment at that? Multiple times he's been the beaten odds-on favorite; he's not only lost in 2-lifetime company, he's lost at THIS LEVEL in 2-lifetime company....HERE in his last! He's got EIGHT slices and only a single win. And if you think the jockey change to Castellano is the key, he's lost for Castellano already, TWICE! So why IS he the pick. Because today, unlike any other time he's run is the FIRST time he's run for a tag, at this distance, with Castellano HERE at Gulfstream where the "Castellano affect" is something you simply cannot explain. I initially considered passing or trying to beat him and then I could just visualize what would happen. On THIS day he would run away as magically an amazingly talented horse despite the 16/1-4-4 record. Sat patiently near the back to the backstretch, moved up effortlessly, then launched his bid and blew by like he was a Breeders' Cup champion facing allowance runners. Just as I'd expected!
The 1-2 price was fair enough so I cashed for $15 on my second and last double investment of the day. The eighth of the day was a maiden special for older going a mile and a sixteenth on the inner course. Chad Brown sent out first time starter Volatility Index. Castellano up? No. And that was the issue. He was instead riding another for a barn that was "scoring" at a miniscule 4% win rate. So the choice became - top trainer/horse with capable rider (Joel Rosario) or top jockey for a weak outfit. I went with Brown's runner. I could tell right away I'd made the right choice. As they loped down the back side in soft fractions Rosario had a ton of horse just waiting for his cue. Castellano was farther back and made a bid into the far turn, but (a) the pace had been so slow early that the runners in front were at an advantage and (b) Volatility Index was simply much too good. Rosario turned him loose when heads turned for home and he burst to the wire as easily the best today.
A generous $7.20 allowed me to cash for almost $20 on my second and final winner of the day. In the final pick of the day and extended week of racing I went with longshot Defying Gravity. He was a ten-time winner over the Gulfstream turf course and you could easily excuse his two back try. Last time out he was 5/1 against nearly this same group and today he was listed at 10/1. I didn't like the favorite to win. I was right about that as the favorite was caught late and I was rolling late at a big 10/1 post time price.....but I was only third. So for the day I finished 2-for-5, a sharp 40%. Right back at it tomorrow with handicapping for the Wednesday card. Especially excited for this week as my buddy Keith arrives tomorrow night. He'll be visiting Key West on Thursday so I'm nearly certain I'll come out for a few races and then the two of us will mount an assault on the track for Saturday where it is Sunshine Millions Day here and there are big races at the Fair Grounds and out west.
The best part was he was nearly 3/1 so the $7.80 payoff with my double investment meant I'd collect almost $40 and made a profit! Sometimes it's not about the win percentage but about making a profit. :)
Friday January 13
At 9/5 I cashed for a little less than $15 on the minimum play. In the finale Disco Man was a huge 9/1 with Castellano - which was why I bet.....how many times does Castellano ride in a cheap maiden claimer, much less the finale of the day? As they turned for home on the turf he moved to the lead and I was thinking how smart I was to play this race when he floated wide and stopped badly to be 10th.
Saturday January 14
It was a great day as I won with TEN selections, including FIVE at Gulfstream, two of them graded stakes (there were three on the card); won with my BEST of the day at Gulfstream when Todd Pletcher's Run and Go debuted to score convincingly at an amazing $7.60; and with the BET of the Day in Santa Anita's Grade 2 La Canada on Vale Dori.
Click HERE to read the journal for this big day's stories.
January 14: Marshua's River Day Highlights
Sunday January 15
Today we traveled to Orlando to see the kids and our most wonderful grandson Oliver with Kim's family. When I checked the results I must say I was disappointed, especially after the big day on Saturday. I knew, I KNEW that Goodtimehadbyall would not win the opener and listed at 3/5 in the program? But after looking at the past performances I couldn't see anyway he would lose, even if he did not run well. Well he was DEAD LAST at 1/5. And I did bet him - wow. Passed the next three and then I went with Todd Pletcher's Mr. Magic in the fifth. Seems there are more of these kinds for him this year - a nw2-lifetime claiming event! Mr. Magic was dropping from a similar spot for a $30K tag and today was in for $16K. Also liked that his past performances showed a consistent "good race, bad race" pattern and today should be the "good." He pressed to the stretch and then took off as much the best. I collected nearly $25 on the 6/5 favorite. After passing the sixth I had added investments in three of the last four and felt confident I'd win with at least two of them, nearly certain in the finale. In the 7th Sawyer was a big 9/2 price in an entry level allowance and was held at the back way too long before launching his bid - belated 6th without a threatening moment. In the 9th Performance Bonus for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano trailed from the moment the gates opened in a 2x allowance - made worse by the fact that my second choice scored at nearly $7. And in the finale, a MSW turf sprint it was a Bill Mott 2nd time starter who'd run big at first asking - which Mott's horses never do. Happy Wanderer was the heavy 4/5 favorite. Off just a beat slow but right there on the turn, made a move then nothing.....5th. One win on the day - disappointing.
Monday January 16
It was a special holiday racing card today, but the races weren't anything special - and not even an overnight stakes race. Still when I looked over the card I found five races of the ten of interest. Passed the first two - both my top picks were very short prices and didn't hit the board, good decision to pass the races. In the third Yes Darlin looked to be exiting a strong maiden event where the field had been strung out by daylight between the top runners on the wire. Sent off at 3/1 he pressed the pace to the turn and faded to fifth. Nothing in the fourth. The fifth was one of two races were I doubled the investment. A 3yo maiden claiming event at a one-turn mile We Can Dance was an even 4th at 3/5 when dropped in for a first time tag. Dropped again and got Paco Lopez today on the stretch out. I projected him to be chasing Stagecoach Shop before taking over. Well all of that analysis was accurate, what wasn't was that he'd go by. We Can Dance finished third at 3/2 while the Stagecoach kept on rolling at 6/5 all the way to the wire. One of the many things I enjoy about handicapping is the fact that when trying to figure out the race flow and the numbers to determine the winner, often times there are just things you "know" or "see" when you look at races. Such was the case in the sixth, a non-winners of 2-lifetime event on the turf. Check out the past performances for Bingo Kitten below........Why would you bet this guy - and up the investment at that? Multiple times he's been the beaten odds-on favorite; he's not only lost in 2-lifetime company, he's lost at THIS LEVEL in 2-lifetime company....HERE in his last! He's got EIGHT slices and only a single win. And if you think the jockey change to Castellano is the key, he's lost for Castellano already, TWICE! So why IS he the pick. Because today, unlike any other time he's run is the FIRST time he's run for a tag, at this distance, with Castellano HERE at Gulfstream where the "Castellano affect" is something you simply cannot explain. I initially considered passing or trying to beat him and then I could just visualize what would happen. On THIS day he would run away as magically an amazingly talented horse despite the 16/1-4-4 record. Sat patiently near the back to the backstretch, moved up effortlessly, then launched his bid and blew by like he was a Breeders' Cup champion facing allowance runners. Just as I'd expected!
The 1-2 price was fair enough so I cashed for $15 on my second and last double investment of the day. The eighth of the day was a maiden special for older going a mile and a sixteenth on the inner course. Chad Brown sent out first time starter Volatility Index. Castellano up? No. And that was the issue. He was instead riding another for a barn that was "scoring" at a miniscule 4% win rate. So the choice became - top trainer/horse with capable rider (Joel Rosario) or top jockey for a weak outfit. I went with Brown's runner. I could tell right away I'd made the right choice. As they loped down the back side in soft fractions Rosario had a ton of horse just waiting for his cue. Castellano was farther back and made a bid into the far turn, but (a) the pace had been so slow early that the runners in front were at an advantage and (b) Volatility Index was simply much too good. Rosario turned him loose when heads turned for home and he burst to the wire as easily the best today.
A generous $7.20 allowed me to cash for almost $20 on my second and final winner of the day. In the final pick of the day and extended week of racing I went with longshot Defying Gravity. He was a ten-time winner over the Gulfstream turf course and you could easily excuse his two back try. Last time out he was 5/1 against nearly this same group and today he was listed at 10/1. I didn't like the favorite to win. I was right about that as the favorite was caught late and I was rolling late at a big 10/1 post time price.....but I was only third. So for the day I finished 2-for-5, a sharp 40%. Right back at it tomorrow with handicapping for the Wednesday card. Especially excited for this week as my buddy Keith arrives tomorrow night. He'll be visiting Key West on Thursday so I'm nearly certain I'll come out for a few races and then the two of us will mount an assault on the track for Saturday where it is Sunshine Millions Day here and there are big races at the Fair Grounds and out west.
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