Wednesday January 4
The week started off with a smile thanks to a Facebook exchange. If you follow me you know that I am a big fan of the CBS morning team and start my day off with them each day. I also follow them on Facebook and this morning news anchor Lauren Pastrana posted a question regarding the anticipated "winter" weather that was in store for the upcoming weekend. So I replied. Lo and behold a little while later in the morning she wrote back to me :) Nice to know that your noticed - and it's one of the reasons I will post to their pages......it was always nice to know that my students were listening to me and my thoughts when I was working. On to racing.......
I had gone through the card and found only four races where I felt I had an edge. In the opener, it was a MSW for older on the turf, sprinting five furlongs. For much of the month of December top jockey Javier Castellano was not riding here (or anywhere). So when I saw he was on board Crazy About Jazz I knew the "real" Gulfstream Championship Meet was about to get underway. In addition to Castellano being on board, 'Crazy was in sharp form. A good third in her debut and then a best-of-the-rest 2nd last out - both going a furlong longer at Belmont. Today she had sharp works and there wasn't a lot of competition signed on in my opinion. Right to the front......
Wire to wire without ever being threatened. As I'd said in my analysis, the only thing NOT to like was the price as everyone saw what I did and she scored at a meager 2/5, so I cashed for only $14. I didn't like anyone in the 2nd; in the third I thought Majestic Kindness looked best with Heavenly Lucky the alternative - both from Nick Zito's barn. But neither looked solid enough to bet. They ran 1-2 and keyed a $34 exacta as my top choice won as the chalk, but 'Heavenly was nearly 7/1! In the 4th I liked Pert who had Castellano in a 3yo Maiden Claimer on the turf at a mile. Right to the front at 2/1 and led to midstretch before giving way to finish 4th. No pick in the fifth; in the sixth I liked Elegant Supermodel in a no-conditions allowance turf sprint. She was exiting a SUPER KEY race and was bet down from 6/1 to 5/2. Off slowly and ran evenly to be a well-beaten 6th behind a longshot winner. In the 7th and 8th I passed - my 2nd choice won the seventh and paid over $12 and ironically my top choice in the 8th won, also paying $12. Starship Jubilee was 12/1 in the program and was the only runner who'd never seen 3L company. But she'd never gone two turns and the barn was a woeful 26/1-3-4 - ouch, couldn't bet. In the 9th both Gulfstream handicappers - Ron Nicoletti and the ultra-attractive Acacia Courtney - singled my top choice, Bama Bound who was going first off the claim for Jorge Navarro. Pressed to the stretch at 4/5 then had no closing kick, 3rd. In the finale I passed again with the only horse I even mentioned running fourth.
Thursday January 5
I had five selections today - passed the opener where the only one I would consider playing was a main track only runner in a maiden claimer for older. It stayed on the grass, so I had no bet. In the second Zip's Legacy was the only runner who had NOT been defeated in $6.25K 2-lifetime company - the conditions of the race. He had lost twice 2L races, but for $16K and $8K. Typically I do not like to play runners in restricted races that have already lost in those kind of events, even if they are dropping in price. But at least vs. these runners he was dropping in class and had not lost on dirt yet - shipping in from Woodbine he'd only run on synthetic. He looked like the lone speed to me under Paco Lopez and he was loose on the lead. As they swung out of the turn Lopez gave "that look" under his arm that lets you know he's in complete control, and after pedestrian fractions of :25 and :49 for a flat mile I thought he was gone. But it got dicey through the final 16th....just enough to last!
There was no secret about Zip's Legacy being the one to beat, so I was satisfied with the 6/5 price which got me back a little over $10. In the 3rd Sweet Khalessi was the 7/5 favorite, but ran evenly in fourth all the way around - my second choice won and paid $9.80. Passed the fourth where the favorite, who I did not like, was up in time. In the fifth Elia looked solid in a turf sprint. She'd only been out six times and had four wins. Just missed the show spot in the Claiming Crown turf sprint last out and had Tyler Gafflione. She pressed another she'd beaten in that race to the stretch and was ready to go by.....but couldn't get by. WOW, 2nd as the 6/5 favorite. In the sixth I remarked that Wait was hardly a "Bet of the Day" but that it would be very hard to go against her. Two starts, two second place finishes in MSW company while beating 18 of 20 rivals. Clearly the best on paper and had Castellano on board. My only mild concern was she was coming off a layoff and perhaps had 2nd-itis. Right to the front and was the easiest of winners!
I tripled the bet so I cashed for over $30 for my second win of the day! Passed the 7th and 8th. The ninth was my "Upset Special" on Captain Gaughen in a turf sprint under allowance conditions. He was making his first start for Jason Servis (47% win) and Paco Lopez was riding (48% with Servis). The program favorite had the speed figures in nine of his last eleven to win, but ALL had been earned without winning. Have to question the legitimacy of those numbers. The Captain made his move on the turn and finished well clear of everyone but the 5-1 winner. Good handicapping, no cash. So on the day I was 2-for-5, a sharp 40% average!
Friday January 6
The final day of weekday racing continued what I thought was a "less-than-Championship" caliber menu of races. By the time we hit the seventh race this afternoon there were TEN turf sprints from twenty-seven races and the majority were maiden claiming events. Maybe if you're a turf sprint fan, which I'm not - and I think they are highly unpredictable because the slightest mistake, especially early and you're done. And on this particular day's card the first four races were maiden events with me passing the first three which were all for a price tag. The fourth of the day was the first that I liked, and it was a MSW on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs. The field overall was strong I thought (unlike the first three) but I settled on the first time starter from Chad Brown, Frontier Market who had Javier Castellano on board. He chased the wire-to-wire winner to be a strong 2nd at 4/1. The winner coasted on the easiest of leads (:50 and change, 1:16 and change) - and ironically had been my bet last time out when fourth. In the fifth it was NOT a maiden event, but it was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming race for a mid-level $16K tag. Kiss the Crown was 8/1 in the program and I thought he stood a real upset chance. I figured to get a fair price because THREE of his rivals today had beaten him last time out! He'd dueled through wicked splits of :21.2 and :44.3 before giving way to be beaten only 1 3/4 lengths going this five furlong distance. His inside draw, I thought, would give him a pace advantage. He stalked a more reasonable pace today while saving ground; slid outside into the lane and took off! WHOOO HOOOO!
Unfortunately for me he'd taken considerable play at the windows and was bet down to 5/2 second choice. I didn't up the bet - anticipating the risk was worth only the minimum with an 8/1 payout - and cashed for a little under $20. Passed the sixth and seventh (the winner of the former was my top choice at even money - didn't even have anyone listed in the latter). In the eighth Lex Vegas was on the rail for Castellano and was sent off at 2/1. Right to the front......but gave way late to be a fair third. The ninth was my "best" of the day and I went "prime time" on Speedmeister who left the gate as the 3/2 favorite. He drew off at the difficult seven furlong distance of today's race in his debut for trainer Mark Casse and then set wicked splits in the one-turn mile Street Sense Stakes. He faded late as the 2/5 favorite that day and the winner, McCracken came right back to win a Grade 2 event. He looked really strong for me - my only question was jockey Julian Leparoux who often does not put my horses into a winning trip. He was completely outrun today......sigh - 4th. Passed the finale - very disappointed in the results today.
Saturday January 7
Dania Beach Stakes Day
My plan for today was to head out to Gulfstream as it was "Hutcheson Stakes Day" and there were five stakes slated to be run today. My first inkling of trouble came when the weather forecast was not only anticipated to be cold - as I had "chatted about" with Lauren Pastrana earlier in the week :) - but now they were forecasting a strong possibility of rain. The second issue was that we had a hockey game tonight, so I would not be staying for the entire day. Third, snow and bitter cold temps were forecast in the northeast where I had picks at both Aqueduct and Parx. So I was up in the air about going. Still, on Friday I handicapped six tracks and bought a ticket for the grandstand with the anticipation of going. I couldn't sleep and was awake around 5 am so I turned on the morning news and the weather was for "downpours" with a strong possibility of "thunder storms" between 1 pm and 3 pm. Hmmm, not interested in sitting through a bunch of scratch-filled off-the-turf AND getting wet. I went to get out of bed about 5:30 and I couldn't move. Literally, my back was out and it was causing me incredible pain. When I finally could get out of bed it was all I could do to walk the few steps into the living room. I sat in my chair and was "more comfortable" but then I couldn't get up. For nearly half an hour I was "stuck" and in pain. Finally I managed to get up and move to my desk chair - a little better. By the time Kim got up around 7:30 I was "only" in discomfort and could walk, but very slowly and with some "discomfort." Not going to the races today for sure now. Fortunately as the day wore on what ever was "out of place" in my back eased back in and by the time the hockey game rolled around I was ok to drive and walk gingerly from the parking lot to our seats on the third level. So I watched the races from my computer desk. Now I was even more happy I wasn't at the races as BOTH Aqueduct and Parx cancelled all races; Tampa and Santa Anita were off the turf as well. So, from my original list of 30 plus selections I was down to sixteen races to play. It would have been a long day of standing around. The only "good news" from the racing weather was that while it did rain at Gulfstream it was never heavy and unlike the old Calder days when rain on Monday meant we'd be off the turf for at least a week or maybe two, the races were run over the firm going despite the moisture. I was fifth in the opener at Gulfstream at 2/1. The second was the Old Hat Stakes for 3yo fillies. I should mention here that when I handicapped the card the Hutcheson Stakes for 3yo colts was missing. I thought I must have mis-read when this was scheduled, but found out later that just like the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector last week, the race was cancelled due to lack of entries. I'll add that this concerns me as (a) the week-day caliber of racing is noticeably weaker than I ever remember; (b) while the track announcer is fine, he's the same guy that calls the races all summer. Not that he's not "known" - he did call the winter racing at Oaklawn last year - but part of the allure of the "Championship Meet" was we got a big time announcer - first Hall of Famer Tom Durkin and more recently Larry Colmus who is the voice of the Triple Crown and the Breeders' Cup - and he calls the NYRA races in the fall and summer. But he left to take the winter off. So now some of the luster is gone.....the lower quality races and stakes not filling. Not good. Anyway, in the Old Hat I did NOT like Todd Pletcher's unbeaten filly, Bode's Dream. She figured to be a short price and unlike her last when she wired a state-bred stakes for me, I thought she'd have company today. I went with Javier Castellano on a better price horse, Summer Luck who was 7/2. Well, I was right that Bode's Dream wouldn't hold on, but it wasn't me that caught her - third. The second at Tampa provided my first winner on the afternoon. Brocojoenvinny was running for the basement level $6.25K tag - even lower quality here in Tampa than at Gulfstream - which meant if anything these kind are very inconsistent. But trainer Dale Bennett is winning at a remarkable 47% for the meet and he'd claimed this one last time out off a win. Also 'Bronco looked to be repeating a numbers pattern that saw him cycle up over five straight races last year, and today he was only three races into the cycle. All this made him the bet. At 6/5 he was cruising on the lead, then was caught at the top of the stretch. But unlike most cheap claimers who spit the bit at this point, he dug in and held on!
My double investment returned over $20 Horray! The next race on my sheet was my BEST of the Day. It was the Grade 3 Dania Beach and was now the featured event at Gulfstream as the lone graded event. This was 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf for 3yo colts. Made You Look was sent out by Todd Pletcher with Javier Castellano. He'd been second best in a turf sprint debut behind Red Lodge who has won multiple stakes then came back to win emphatically around two turns. In his third start he was much the best in the Grade 2 With Anticipation at Saratoga. Off that he went to the Breeders' Cup where Pletcher was said to have had high expectations. But he didn't fire. Today off the shelf, a big win angle for Pletcher here and in Grade 3 company off a Gr 2 win and a Gr 1 effort, he just looked TONS the best. He stalked the lead into the turn while looking full of run. Castellano smartly took him outside knowing he was far the best in the race and Made You Look ran away as much the best! TWO IN A ROW!
Considering how much of an edge he held over the field I thought the 6/5 price was more than generous. I was a disappointing sixth at Tampa with the even money favorite in their third but I was anticipating another big win the Gulfstream's fifth. Pletcher was sending out second time starter Monaco in a MSW and he laid over this field. A $1.3 Million sales grad he'd been best of the rest 2nd in his debut and had multiple bullet works for his return. I went prime time and he was the 4/5 favorite. But he appeared to struggle throughout and gained second only with a late surge over the rest of the field. Very disappointing. The opener at the Fair Grounds was next where scratches reduced the field to three starters - even thought it was originally carded on the dirt. My pick, Parade Me was a prohibitive 1/5 and looked to be the lone speed. Right to the front, but at the top of the lane he was collared. Head up and head down stretch duel......just held on. Whew! In the sixth at Gulfstream it was another 3yo MSW on the grass this time. Snap Decision was 5/1 in the program and had been a solid fifth of twelve in his debut. Shug McGaughey never has them ready for their first try so this good effort seemed to set him up nicely for today. He was mid-pack to the back stretch and then hit another gear and was picking off horses one-by-one. Uh oh, here we come! But into the stretch the top two separated themselves from the rest and I was third best at a solid 3/1 price. Nothing until the next at Gulfstream where it was a second level allowance going seven furlongs for older. I thought 10/1 longshot Something Awesome was very legitimate upset candidate. He was on a three race winning streak from his Woodbine base, but he had sharp works over the Gulfstream main track, including a best-of-45 bullet move in a sizzling :59.3. But, he stumbled out of the gate and while I cannot be sure, I think it cost him at least a legitimate chance as he was FLYING late to be a good third at 8/1 under the wire. The third at the Fair Grounds saw me run 2nd with War Eagles Return. At 5/2 top rider Florent Geroux forged to the front at the top of the lane but could not hold off the late closing second choice. The eighth at Gulfstream was another 3yo MSW on the turf and I had two thoughts.....first, the race looked WIDE open with several ways to go and second, second time starter Taperge was handled by Chad Brown with Castellano up - a deadly combination. She'd broken from the difficult inside post in her debut and trailed throughout. Today she got blinkers and I thought she'd move up considerably. The 8/1 program price was STEALING I thought. She was patiently handled by the top jockey to the stretch. He moved her five wide into the clear and said "GO" and off she went. Drawing off as much the best for my fourth win of the day and second at Gulfsteam!
The big 3/1 post time price, coupled with my double investment allowed me to cash for over $40 on my bet. I had three more selections on the local card, but none of them were above the minimum. Between the 8th win on Taperge and my final bet in the 11th there were FIVE races where my pick was scratched or the race was canceled. The ninth was the Ginger Brew for 3yo fillies on the turf and it looked like a wide-open event. I went with Castellano-Brown on Lady Luck who would not be the favorite on connections alone. A good-enough third at 4/1. The tenth was the Mucho Macho Man for 3yo colts going a one-turn mile. Another wide open event where I picked Perro Rojo at 20/1 in the program. But as the betting opened I looked again at the past performances and thought, "I really don't have an edge in here, this is simply a guess." So I cancelled the bet. He was a big price but was well back throughout. At this point it was time to head out to the hockey game. We'd had a game Wednesday and we played terrible. But we went right back on Friday and played well to win 3/1. Tonight we played Boston and a win tonight would put us in the playoffs, at this point in the season, in spite of being inconsistent through the first half of the season and having so many injuries. Played well for a period, then flat. Completely outplayed in the second to go down 3-0. We left early, which we never do. The final was a dismal 4-0 score. :( Opened up xpressbet.com to watch the replays of the last few races once we got home - in the finale at Gulfstream Elite Heir went off at 4/1, made a middle move and hung - fifth. At the Fair Grounds Fairwell Tax Break was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite in the 7th, a second level allowance sprint, but was a non-threatening fourth. WOW. The ninth at the Fair Grounds was a MSW for 3yo and Jenda's Agenda looked good on paper as a first time starter for trainer Al Stall. While you often cannot bank on runners firing in the afternoon based on their works in the morning, typically young runners with a string of good works DO fire. Such was the case here where FOUR bullet works and two near-bullet works did foreshadow a big effort. Right to the front and drew off by nearly a pole at a nice price of $6.80 allowing me to cash for nearly $35. The last pick of the day was the featured Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita - their first step on the Derby trail. It was duel between the upset winner of the Grade 1 Frontrunner Stakes - prep for the BC Juvenile - and a Bob Baffert debut maiden winner. I read that American Anthem - the Baffert runner - was considered one of his top three-year-olds. This might be one of the few times to get a fair price so I went prime time. Right to the front but as they hit the stretch the more experienced runner put his head in front. Uncharacteristically - and perhaps a tip to what is ahead - American Anthem battled back....very unusual for a horse to be headed and come back, especially a maiden winner taking on a graded stakes winner. One head up and one head down to the wire .... PHOTO finish....second :(
Still for the day I was a solid 5-for-16 (with seven runners going 2nd or 3rd) and I made a couple of dollars.
Sunday January 8
Did I Just See The Winner Of The Kentucky Oaks Today?
Today was easily the BEST day of the first week of the new year! And I have to admit I was beside myself with excitement after the last race of the day this evening. Here's how the final day of racing went down........On the Sunday card at Gulfstream I found five races that I liked. I was working on my computer after lunch so I had the live stream on for the opener, where it was my first bet of the day. In handicapping there are fundamentally two schools of thought - you handicap the races because you like the mental challenge of it and you try to pick the winner. Winning money is just a side benefit - the excitement comes from the playing and the fact that unlike any other way to spend your entertainment money with racing your opinion, if you're right, could possibly get you some of your money back. On a good day, all of your money and then some! The other school of thought is you handicap to make money. Here you look for value and you play only when you have a price that worthy of your investment. I am in the former camp, and I've been fortunate that in the last twelve years that I've been handicapping I not only win enough to enjoy it, but I'm not losing money!
I give this as a preface to the first race because Jack West was obviously not a "good bet" if you're playing for value. In this nw2L event for a basement tag of $6,250 he was either going to be a clear winner or finish up the track and off the board as a short priced favorite. After two MSW tries he scored in his third start for a big $50K price at Keeneland with a big 80 Beyer. Off for six months he was entered in a nw2L race for a $20K tag. At 7/2 he stopped badly. He was claimed and entered for a $32K price, again in nw2L. The crowd dismissed him at nearly 10/1 and he was dead last. Now today, off another barn change he was PLUNGING from $32K to $6.25K. As the saying goes, "they never give anything away at the races," so this should be a huge red flag as a "fire sale" to dump a runner who's no longer a threat to win. BUT he might simply outclass these. I went with that school of thought, but I wasn't going to go "all in." I felt a little better about my pick because the DRF's Mike Welsch made him his "BEST" of the day. I have never been a big fan of Welsch's selections, and his choice of a "best" doesn't scare me if I'm on another (unlike a Dave Liftin, Brad Free, or Jill Byrne pick). But one thing I DO know - Welsch rarely goes with the chalk. For him to be on board with this obvious questionable runner meant, to me, I can't be completely off base. Right to the front, in complete control to mid-stretch.......started to shorten stride, but the others were just not good enough and I had my first win of the day.
Cashed for nearly $15 which considering I thought was fair enough. I passed the 2nd-through-4th so I went into the living room and watched the first half of the Miami Dolphins playoff game. At about 2 pm I turned on the live feed again as I had four straight races with bets. In the fifth it was a claiming event on the turf for older. I believed that Thinking of Mom looked very legitimate as a favorite at 9/5 in the program. She was a 4x winner on the turf and had run a best-of-the-rest 2nd last time out at this level when trying to make up ground chasing pedestrian :49.3 and 1:15.2 splits. Was within a length and a half of the winner AND was five plus clear of the show runner. Paco Lopez for Eddie Plesa sealed the deal. She broke sharply from the outside post and quickly was into third heading into the first turn. I knew unless something went really wrong I was the winner. Lopez rode the rail to the stretch, eased outside and took off as much, MUCH the best.
Considering how clear cut it looked on paper the $6.20 price was stealing I thought. My double investment led to a payoff of over $30 as I moved to 2-for-2 on the day! WHOOOO HOOOO! The very next race was a turf race going a mile and a sixteenth. Maiden claiming 3yo for a $75K price tag. Typically with young horses (2yo in the fall, 3yo in the winter) there's very little difference between maiden special and maiden claiming for anything above, and often including a $50K tag. But I was just a touch wary that top turf trainer Chad Brown was sending out a runner for this tag instead of maiden special company. As I wrote however, perhaps she was ready to run and there wasn't a MSW race that fit the schedule. Lady Nicky had debuted in a dirt sprint and showed nothing. Today she got two turns and grass, which by the numbers she should love. Add in Javier Castellano and I thought it was obvious. She was a tepid 9/5 on the board when they left the gate as she tracked the early leaders to the far turn. She got the signal to go and immediately accelerated by the leaders and was clear and gone. THREE-for-THREE my friend!
With my double investment I was cashing for almost $30 and I was guaranteed a winning day today :) I upped the bet a notch for my pick in the 7th where Rock Eagle went out for Jason Servis. New horses to the barn win at a big 45% for him and jockey Paco Lopez wins at an even bigger 47%. But he was too far back in this turf route as his late rally fell short, fourth at 2/1. In my final bet of the day at Gulfstream Altruism was again too far off the pace and rallied for fourth again - at a better price of 4/1. The best story of the day, and the week came in the final selection of the week.....which comes with a backstory. Beginning with the lead-up to the 2015 Breeders' Cup at Keeneland - where I was at with my buddy Keith - the 2yo filly division had a budding superstar in Songbird. She won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as a "prime time" play for me and then she rolled through her three-year-old season as tons, TONS the best. She was a strong "BET of the Day" bet for me with each and every start, even when shipped to Saratoga and in the sweltering heat & humidity. I even planned a racing adventure to go see her at Parx when she dazzled in the Grade 1 $1 Million Cotillion prior to a photo finish loss in the Breeders' Cup Distaff behind multiple Breeders' Cup champion Beholder when Songbird was racing against older for the first time. So about six weeks ago as I was reading through the weekend summary of races online I read about a two-year-old filly out west who was drawing rave reviews. What caught my attention as much as what was being said was who it was being said by. Songbird is trained by veteran conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer who is reluctant to speak highly of a runner unless they are truly special, like Songbird. And Songbird's regular rider is Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Both have raved about the immense talent of their filly. Well these same two are partnered on this two-year-old, Unique Bella. According to what I read this filly had appeared to be really special before she even hit the track. Then she disappointed at 3/5 at Santa Anita in early fall. But in her second start, at the fall Del Mar meet she'd run to her works and potential and drew off by 10 plus lengths without ever being asked. It was then that I read the comments of both Holldenorfer and Smith where they were thinking she MAY be as talented, or more so than Songbird. WHAT???? If anyone else had said that it would be have been a huge compliment but you'd have to wonder if they knew what they were talking about. But if the SAME trainer AND rider of Songbird were saying this, then you'd better pay attention. I noted in this article that they projected her next start would be in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita. This was the race that was the feature this afternoon at Santa Anita. I knew I'd be watching and felt pretty confident I'd be betting. But I wanted to see what the Santa Anita handicappers had to say before making a final decision. The two that most caught my eye are show below.......
Aaron Vercruysse is familiar to me from the TVG racing network and I often followed his analysis. In fact I met him before the 2013 Breeders' Cup when he was with his partner Jeff Siegel and they remarked about how "dapper" I looked in my bow tie & vest. Well, Vercruysse next to never picks a short priced favorite on top and when I read his comments - the first listed above - I was even more convinced that Unique Bella might be as good as advertised. Brad Free is one of my most favorite public/online handicappers. So much so that if his "best" of the day is NOT my horse I will look back to make sure I am convinced I'm "more right" than he is; if we agree then I up the bet. I liked that he too raved about her, but it was a little worrisome that her main rival, Shane's Girlfriend, was coming off a big graded stakes win. Still, all good enough for me to make Unique Bella a "prime time" play. Early in the betting Unique Bella was 1/5 but the closer it got to post time her odds began to float up. By the time the gates sprung open Shane's Girlfriend was the actual post-time favorite at odds of 4/5 and Unique Bella had floated up from the original 1/5 to an amazing and very generous even money. Out of the gate Unique Bella was just a touch slow and Shane's Girlfriend set out on the front with two others. Mike Smith easily rated Unique Bella behind those three and it was obvious to me that he had a lot of horse under him. As they approached the far turn he glided her four wide and on the turn she effortlessly went by the three frontrunners. As Smith sat motionless and the other three were imploring their fillies to run was the first time I said, out loud, "WOW." A closer, ironically a stablemate of Unique Bella's also trained by Hollendorfer was making a move on the turn and appeared to be a threat. But as heads turned for home Smith STILL remained motionless and with each stride Unique Bella was widening her margin! Again, out loud, "WOW" was my comment. Through the final 16th she was just cantering under wraps. She had no problem with a graded stakes winner; tracking a fast pace; holding off a closer; or making the move from maiden to not only winners, but a graded stakes; AND stretching to the difficult seven furlong distance! My bet would return me $40 - NICE!
I immediately thought, "THIS is the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the bet of the weekend - if she stays healthy." Only three other times have I been moved by a racehorse performance to say out loud, "WOW" like this......when I was at Churchill Downs watching the 2011 Breeders' Cup and three time champion Goldikova blew by the BC Mile field; when Wise Dan blew by on the turn at Woodbine to win the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in course record time without ever being asked to run; and when Kim and I were at Oaklawn and saw American Pharoah run away with the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby. This is truly rarefied air in my experience! Just WOW. With this win I finished this Sunday afternoon with a 4-for-6 record and a nice profit. For the week I was 13-for-35 with six seconds and thirds (interesting as ALWAYS when I do the numbers my 2nd & 3rd totals are nearly the same as my wins, which is why I always bet strictly to win and never to place & show). That's a bit 37% win average for those of you without calculators :) An excellent week and wow, what a way to finish off the week! Check out the replay.......
I give this as a preface to the first race because Jack West was obviously not a "good bet" if you're playing for value. In this nw2L event for a basement tag of $6,250 he was either going to be a clear winner or finish up the track and off the board as a short priced favorite. After two MSW tries he scored in his third start for a big $50K price at Keeneland with a big 80 Beyer. Off for six months he was entered in a nw2L race for a $20K tag. At 7/2 he stopped badly. He was claimed and entered for a $32K price, again in nw2L. The crowd dismissed him at nearly 10/1 and he was dead last. Now today, off another barn change he was PLUNGING from $32K to $6.25K. As the saying goes, "they never give anything away at the races," so this should be a huge red flag as a "fire sale" to dump a runner who's no longer a threat to win. BUT he might simply outclass these. I went with that school of thought, but I wasn't going to go "all in." I felt a little better about my pick because the DRF's Mike Welsch made him his "BEST" of the day. I have never been a big fan of Welsch's selections, and his choice of a "best" doesn't scare me if I'm on another (unlike a Dave Liftin, Brad Free, or Jill Byrne pick). But one thing I DO know - Welsch rarely goes with the chalk. For him to be on board with this obvious questionable runner meant, to me, I can't be completely off base. Right to the front, in complete control to mid-stretch.......started to shorten stride, but the others were just not good enough and I had my first win of the day.
Cashed for nearly $15 which considering I thought was fair enough. I passed the 2nd-through-4th so I went into the living room and watched the first half of the Miami Dolphins playoff game. At about 2 pm I turned on the live feed again as I had four straight races with bets. In the fifth it was a claiming event on the turf for older. I believed that Thinking of Mom looked very legitimate as a favorite at 9/5 in the program. She was a 4x winner on the turf and had run a best-of-the-rest 2nd last time out at this level when trying to make up ground chasing pedestrian :49.3 and 1:15.2 splits. Was within a length and a half of the winner AND was five plus clear of the show runner. Paco Lopez for Eddie Plesa sealed the deal. She broke sharply from the outside post and quickly was into third heading into the first turn. I knew unless something went really wrong I was the winner. Lopez rode the rail to the stretch, eased outside and took off as much, MUCH the best.
Considering how clear cut it looked on paper the $6.20 price was stealing I thought. My double investment led to a payoff of over $30 as I moved to 2-for-2 on the day! WHOOOO HOOOO! The very next race was a turf race going a mile and a sixteenth. Maiden claiming 3yo for a $75K price tag. Typically with young horses (2yo in the fall, 3yo in the winter) there's very little difference between maiden special and maiden claiming for anything above, and often including a $50K tag. But I was just a touch wary that top turf trainer Chad Brown was sending out a runner for this tag instead of maiden special company. As I wrote however, perhaps she was ready to run and there wasn't a MSW race that fit the schedule. Lady Nicky had debuted in a dirt sprint and showed nothing. Today she got two turns and grass, which by the numbers she should love. Add in Javier Castellano and I thought it was obvious. She was a tepid 9/5 on the board when they left the gate as she tracked the early leaders to the far turn. She got the signal to go and immediately accelerated by the leaders and was clear and gone. THREE-for-THREE my friend!
With my double investment I was cashing for almost $30 and I was guaranteed a winning day today :) I upped the bet a notch for my pick in the 7th where Rock Eagle went out for Jason Servis. New horses to the barn win at a big 45% for him and jockey Paco Lopez wins at an even bigger 47%. But he was too far back in this turf route as his late rally fell short, fourth at 2/1. In my final bet of the day at Gulfstream Altruism was again too far off the pace and rallied for fourth again - at a better price of 4/1. The best story of the day, and the week came in the final selection of the week.....which comes with a backstory. Beginning with the lead-up to the 2015 Breeders' Cup at Keeneland - where I was at with my buddy Keith - the 2yo filly division had a budding superstar in Songbird. She won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies as a "prime time" play for me and then she rolled through her three-year-old season as tons, TONS the best. She was a strong "BET of the Day" bet for me with each and every start, even when shipped to Saratoga and in the sweltering heat & humidity. I even planned a racing adventure to go see her at Parx when she dazzled in the Grade 1 $1 Million Cotillion prior to a photo finish loss in the Breeders' Cup Distaff behind multiple Breeders' Cup champion Beholder when Songbird was racing against older for the first time. So about six weeks ago as I was reading through the weekend summary of races online I read about a two-year-old filly out west who was drawing rave reviews. What caught my attention as much as what was being said was who it was being said by. Songbird is trained by veteran conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer who is reluctant to speak highly of a runner unless they are truly special, like Songbird. And Songbird's regular rider is Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Both have raved about the immense talent of their filly. Well these same two are partnered on this two-year-old, Unique Bella. According to what I read this filly had appeared to be really special before she even hit the track. Then she disappointed at 3/5 at Santa Anita in early fall. But in her second start, at the fall Del Mar meet she'd run to her works and potential and drew off by 10 plus lengths without ever being asked. It was then that I read the comments of both Holldenorfer and Smith where they were thinking she MAY be as talented, or more so than Songbird. WHAT???? If anyone else had said that it would be have been a huge compliment but you'd have to wonder if they knew what they were talking about. But if the SAME trainer AND rider of Songbird were saying this, then you'd better pay attention. I noted in this article that they projected her next start would be in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita. This was the race that was the feature this afternoon at Santa Anita. I knew I'd be watching and felt pretty confident I'd be betting. But I wanted to see what the Santa Anita handicappers had to say before making a final decision. The two that most caught my eye are show below.......
I immediately thought, "THIS is the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the bet of the weekend - if she stays healthy." Only three other times have I been moved by a racehorse performance to say out loud, "WOW" like this......when I was at Churchill Downs watching the 2011 Breeders' Cup and three time champion Goldikova blew by the BC Mile field; when Wise Dan blew by on the turn at Woodbine to win the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in course record time without ever being asked to run; and when Kim and I were at Oaklawn and saw American Pharoah run away with the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby. This is truly rarefied air in my experience! Just WOW. With this win I finished this Sunday afternoon with a 4-for-6 record and a nice profit. For the week I was 13-for-35 with six seconds and thirds (interesting as ALWAYS when I do the numbers my 2nd & 3rd totals are nearly the same as my wins, which is why I always bet strictly to win and never to place & show). That's a bit 37% win average for those of you without calculators :) An excellent week and wow, what a way to finish off the week! Check out the replay.......
The Next Kentucky Oaks Winner
Unique Bella
Unique Bella
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