The world's richest race, the $12 Million Pegasus World Cup highlights a HUGE Saturday of racing. Seating was priced at nearly $200 to sit in "our section" - typically $20 on a "BIG" day and $50 on Florida Derby Day. Unlike every day where you park and walk in for free you were required to pre-pay for a parking pass and to simply walk in without a seat cost you $100! I'll be playing online. Here's how I see the races unfolding.....
In the opener on this historic day I give an edge to 1-Looking For A Kiss (4/1) who is lightly raced and his connections thought enough of him to try him in three straight graded events last spring after a debut win and a sharp second in his first try vs. winners. He came back off a six month break to face older and was 2nd, beaten a mere neck three weeks ago. That was going six panels and I think he'll get a legitimate target to shoot for from mid-pack today for Julian Leparoux. That's the main concern as he's hit-and-miss as a rider for me from the difficult rail draw. 2-Homespun Hero (3/1) is logical after setting the pace at this level and distance before being caught late. Note that all his wins have been for a tag. I look for 10-Fast Friar (10/1) to outrun his odds today. Lightly raced with only three career starts he's improved his Beyer figures with each start. That may slip by some observers as he faded to sixth in his most recent. But that was his first start vs. winners. Today he's third off the shelf, turns back from a one-turn mile and has potential to improve.
The second may offer a rare opportunity to get a fair price on a Chad Brown turf runner with go-to rider, the top jockey at Gulfstream, Javier Castellano. 1-Dancing Waves (5/1) does not have the Beyer figures that would make him APPEAR to be a win threat compared to the program favorites. But I'm willing to give her a pass when making her first start in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo after shipping here from Ireland. She caught a yielding turf that day and take careful note of the first and third finishers......New Money Honey and Coasted. Those two fillies came back to run 1-2 in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Castellano ALWAYS seems to move up his mounts - when he has a talented thoroughbred to work with. If we get 3/1 at post time it's a great deal! 3-Sweeping Paddy (5/2) has been consistent, and to be fair all three of her recent figures are better than the figure earned by Dancing Waves. She buried maidens then 4th in the Grade 3 Jessamine before a fading 8th in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Note however she was 2nd in mid-stretch in that championship event. Another who could surprise - after all these are three-year-old fillies - is Todd Pletcher's 7-Elandress (6/1) who has go-to Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. Could be a sneaky good win threat at a price. 6-Dream Dancing (7/2) ran her two best races on the turf in her first two career races. She's been on three straight graded dirt tries as her connections thought she belonged on the early Oaks trail. Might surprise here.
The stakes action kicks off here with fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs. This race will always bring back memories for me of multiple Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll winning her final start in this event. This year's edition does have much star power outside the top two, and they figure to be the two dueling to the wire late. I like Todd Pletcher's 1-Genre (7/2) who cuts back to a sprint distance for the first time. She faced off with 3-Curlin's Approval (6/5) six weeks ago in the Grade 3 Rampart where they were both upset by Pletcher's Eskenformoney (who was my pick as a $13.20 winner). I thought that day that Curlin's Approval was highly overrated based on her past performances where her big numbers were earned over the summer here against questionable company. And that proved accurate. I think that's true again today while Genre appeared vulnerable in the Rampart after having lost to HFC Eskenformoney last year. Today however I think this gal is in an ideal spot. I think the rail draw and the pace figures she's run going a one-turn mile make her the speed of the race. It would be "race track logic" to see 5-You Bought Her (9/2) win today. I thought she looked best in last week's Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint but her rally came up just short. She loves this distance but is 0-for-7 here at Gulfstream.....and she comes back in just a week.
Only three of the thirteen sophomore fillies lined up to try this maiden turf event have ever gone this nine furlong distance. On top of that the "most likely" winner appears to be compromised with the far outside draw. I'll lean towards 2-Ritzy Rose (4/1) who was a good second in her turf and So Fla start after debuting over the synthetic Woodbine track last October. John Velazquez agrees to ride for Toronto-based Josie Carroll here. Really like the huge Beyer jump from the first main-track start to the turf try last out. 13-Jaunt (7/2) has three thirds on her resume, but note that the two back show money finish saw her cross the line FIRST! That is always a big advantage when facing maidens who have not done so. Maiden three-year-olds at Gulfstream - is there a Pletcher? There is! It's longshot 4-Bee R Bee (10/1) with Javier Castellano. Oh how that would hurt if those two comine in a 3yo MSW at such a big price!
Todd Pletcher seems to have the big prize surrounded with 6-Madefromlucky (7/2) also in the field. This guy is much more proven at this nine furlong distance and he's probably going to be overlooked in the betting to some degree after finishing 4th behind his stablemate. I like his chances today second off the shelf, especially if someone goes with the favorite. 4-Stanford (1/1) is in career form; comes off a decisive score here in the Harlan's Holiday, but have to be honest he coasted on the front end that day. Could he get away with the same today? He has won while pressing the pace, so you have to believe that jockey John Velazquez has options with the Todd Pletcher colt. Probably the biggest edge he has is that IF he ran in the $12 Million Pegasus later this afternoon he'd probably be third choice in the betting. Not convinced he's worthy of "BET of the Day" as he is for the DRF's Mike Welsch, but do think he's a legitimate favorite.
A W-I-D-E open affair for lightly raced three-year-olds that could go any of several ways, but I like Todd Pletcher's second time starter, 3-Slaimy (5/1) with Javier Castellano. In his debut, the $585K sales grad was away last of twelve, but closed with a huge rush to be beaten 1 1/2 lengths. The extra furlong and a half today should help as will a better break. Have to believe that the move to Castellano - not that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez is a negative - is a positive as Castellano rules here at Gulfstream in the winter. 13-Snap Decision (6/1) looks the most likely winner on form, but overcoming that post in a full field of fourteen. Shug McGaughey and Jose Ortiz team up on the son of Hard Spun. Interesting to see Trevor McCarthy in town for Graham Motion on 5-Just Howard (10/1). At least once each of the last two winters McCarthy has flown in to ride for Motion and taken home the top prize. Just Howard goes from a debut dirt sprint to this nine furlong turf race.
The competitive nature of the card continues with the Ladies' Turf Sprint where, again, any one of nearly half a dozen - some listed at prices in the double digits in the program - could win and be no surprise. Very difficult to separate the contenders, but I'll take the lightly raced 6-Brandy's Girl (10/1) who has top turf rider Jose Lezcano on board. This filly has a 10/4-1-1 overall including a 5/2-1-1 record at this sprint distance. I like that she's lightly raced - has potential to run big today - and six of her eight races against winners are in stakes races where she always shows up with a sharp effort. Today she's second off a layoff of August-to-January. If able to repeat the race she ran in winning Monmouth's Crank It Up Stakes last June where she sat just off the early pace and scored as the 3/5 favorite, I think she's a legitimate win candidate. 3-Ruby Notion (15/1) won the 2015 Colleen and set the pace into the stretch in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Filly Turf at Keeneland in 2015. Not been seen since July, but Wesley Ward can have them ready fresh. 10-Triple Chelsea (6/1) came from off the pace to win Tampa's Lightning City at 9/1 and brings her regular rider. If she gets the trip she'll certainly have pace to chase. She ran down 11-Nite Delite (9/2) on the final jump but that one gets Paco Lopez today. Look for this one to be the speed of the speed here and she just might forget to stop. If 12-Everything Lovely (4/1) can secure a good stalking spot just behind 'Delite, she'd be no surprise with Castellano, but it looks like she'll be fanned wide. 4-Blue Bahaia (10/1) offers an angle that no other filly in here can offer.....she's a perfect 4-for-4 in turf sprints! Her last out victory earned a speed figure as good as the best number by any of these.
Today's BEST BET
Anyone who follows Gulfstream in the winter knows that the three-year-old maiden races are the highlight of the season and you can often look back and say that a graded stakes winner got their first start and/or win here. But without question if you truly follow racing at Gulfstream you KNOW that trainer Todd Pletcher - who's won the training title ELEVEN straight years - excels and rules this place with two kinds of runners. Three-year-olds coming back off a layoff after a debut win in the summer and maiden first time starting three-year-olds. Just this past Thursday was a perfect example where my BET of the Day was One Liner - a 3yo coming back off a debut win last July and he scored easily. The crowd let him go off at better than 4/5 odds and he won for fun allowing me to cash for nearly $100. Let's hope that today we can get the same kind of result with 3-Blind Ambition (7/2). This son of champion Tapit was sold for $400K last May and has been firing one bullet after another for Pletcher. Go to rider Johnny Velazquez gets the mount and should be able to take advantage of the inside positioning to be close up without losing ground and draw off through the turn and turning for home. Pletcher also sends out 11-Commandeering (5/1). That neither Castellano or Velazquez stick with this one is a concern and the fact that he was 3/5 at Gulfstream Park West, but faltered behind a stablemate (who came back to win a restricted stakes here) is also a concern. Castellano takes the assignment on 7-Lunaire (9/2) who was a good third in his Belmont debut and a good second in the mud at Aqueduct. It's worrisome to me that NEITHER of those races has produced another winner, while the second start by this colt did....and he was badly beaten in that spot. Not so good against good runners, good against mediocre competition? If there were no Pletchers in here then I would give top consideration to 8-Lookin for Eight (4/1) who probably would have beat nearly any three-year-old maiden on the grounds, except for the Pletcher crew. And that was the problem as he ran into a sharp Pletcher winner, but was SEVEN clear of the show colt who was daylight clear of the rest of the field. But there IS another Pletcher in here and trainer Michael Tomlinson, who conditions Lookin for Eight is 0-for-17 over the last two years with 2nd starting maidens.
In scanning the past performances of 10-Mongolian Saturday (7/2) you will only find five turf sprints at 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs. The results: 2nd by a head in a Gr 3 with a 100 Beyer; WIN in AOC company with a 100 Beyer; 2nd by a nose in a Gr 3 with a 103 Beyer; WIN in the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint with a 107 Beyer; and a WIN in a Gr 3 at Keeneland (off a three and a half month layoff) with a 98 Beyer. Last out he was a fading ninth in the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs down the unique hillside course - too far and probably bounced off his win at Keeneland. Today he comes in with a sharp bullet work against company far lesser than graded winners and should exert his class advantage to a victory. Note that his regular rider is in town to take the assignment. BIG TIME. Now, let's scan down the pps of 11-Power Alert (4/1) - the first thing of note is that he's a 10-for-29 lifetime winner and 19/8-4-1 at this distance. But in his twelve races showing there are only three wins showing dating back to June 2015.....AND THEY ARE ALL HERE! He is a perfect 4-for-4 over the Gulfstream inner course and that alone makes him dangerous. Hasn't seen anyone like the top one however. Look for Javier Castellano to lay down the early gauntlet on 2-Manhattan Dan (9/2) who is pure speed and challenge everyone else to come and catch him. His last two starts - last March and April, here, saw him run :43.4 and :43.1 for the opening half mile. I think he sets a similar pace today with Mongolian Saturday just outside of him, then the long layoff catches up to him and the class advantage of the Breeders' Cup champ kicks him to the wire and the win!
On speed figures and more importantly on class this Grade 3 at the marathon mile and a half distance goes strictly through 7-Arles (7/2) and 12-Suffused (3/1). They faced each other last summer in the Grade 3 Glen Falls at Saratoga going eleven furlongs and were separated by 3/4 of a length when Suffused won - it was daylight back to the rest of the field. Won't be surprised to see a similar result here, but today it's Arles' turn. Never been a big believer in weight as a handicapping factor, but it is a consideration that in the Glen Falls Suffused carried the same 118 pounds as did Arles. Today Suffused is bumped up to 123 while Arles loses a pound. It's not the six pound differential as much as they were evenly weighted and NOW are separated by weight - going another furlong and a half. Secondly, Arles gets the much better post draw of the two today. Suffused would apparently have the class edge having just missed in the Grade 1 EP Taylor at Woodbine at 7/1 - beaten a nose; while Arles comes off a nose defeat at Del Mar in a Grade 3 as the even money favorite. I think it's telling that in looking down Suffused's past performances the only decisive win came at a mile and 15/16th while in every other start she's either been beaten or was in a life-or-death situation. Given the weight shift, the outside post, and that factor, I believe Arles is the one to fear most. 3-Try Your Luck (10/1) will be closer to the pace than either of the top two and it's noteworthy that her career best figure (92) was earned the only other time Florent Geroux was on board. A step forward off that effort and/or a step backwards by the top two would make 'Luck a major player.
The companion marathon turf event for the boys is the prelude to the featured event. Chad Brown always has his best turf runners primed for big efforts here over the winter and it's his 10-Mr. Maybe (6/1) who gets top billing for me. With go-to and four-time riding king Javier Castellano on board I think they are a perfect fit here. Note the consistency in speed figures: 98-98-98-96-104-101. Any of those last three win here, but either of the triple digits and he's a daylight winner. His last was a close enough fourth over yielding ground when chasing loose-on-the-lead graded stakes winner Heart to Heart through glacial splits of :51.2 and 1:16 - no one catches Heart to Heart after those fractions. I also believe that 4-Danish Dynaformer (5/1) is an excellent fit here. The only time he faced Gr 3 company he was a winner at Woodbine as the 9/5 favorite and was 2nd best in the Gr 3 Red Smith at Aqueduct while outfinishing Grade 1 winner Wake Forest. Been off since that November try. On any other course I might give him the edge, but Gulfstream's turf often is much kinder to stalkers and pressers than to deep closers like this guy. 6-Charming Kitten (9/2) looks to give Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith the first half of the late double, as he'll have an excellent shot at the second half in the featured event. Charming Kitten ran for Todd Pletcher through last January and compiled a local resume of 8/4-2-0.
It is horse racing, and so anything can happen. And that was the way many people approached the $5 Million Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic. But on paper and logically it looked to be a virtual match race between 1-Arrogate (7/5) and 12-California Chrome (6/5). That afternoon, over a Santa Anita main track where Chrome has been unbeatable, he had the picture-perfect dream trip and opened up by daylight over the lightly raced three-year-old. But through the final furlong it was Arrogate who not only won, but ran right by the recently voted 2016 Horse of the Year. It doesn't help the champ's case that he drew the outside post, but he's come from off the speed before to be fair. And in this field there are at least two who will say I HAVE to have the front end. So as they hit the backside I see Arrogate as saving ground in third or fourth while California Chrome is probably three or four wide while even or maybe a length in front. But when the "race is on" from the mid-point on the turn it's these two who once again will lay it down to the wire. Arrogate, I think, has just begun to show us what kind of raw talent he has. While this is the farewell song for California Chrome and we've probably seen his best. The nine furlongs may work in his favor, and especially if he gets a clean trip to the front while Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith has to wait for room to get off the fence. But in the end I think it makes little difference, Arrogate is just better. And then there is the possibility that Smith, with the rail simply says "I'm on the best and fastest horse in the race - I'm going right out of the gate." The last time he did that he broke the 150+ year track record winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes while drawing away like no one else was in the race.
No comments:
Post a Comment