Wednesday January 18
I didn't have a bet until the 4th, but oh how I wish I'd played the Wednesday opener. Call to Honor was placed in four stakes races at Woodbine this summer, and today marked his first start for a tag AND first time in 2-lifetime company. He was 6/1 in the program and I decided to watch. Won and paid over $20. Sigh...... I also had the 6/5 favorite winner of the third. In the fourth my top three selections were Bradley's Sunrise, Intractable and Backsplash in a maiden claiming event on the turf going a mile. Bradley's Splash was 9/2 and made a serious bid before being outfinished by.....yes, Intractable and Backsplash. All around it :( In the fifth, another maiden claiming event, this one going six furlongs I noted that any of the three Beyer figures earned by Mark Casse's Make Me in hierKentucky races would win today. Liked the fact that the 5-year-old mare was dropping out of MSW company for the first time today on dirt. Last out in a $35K turf would be a good tightener for this sprint. Pressed the pace three wide as the prohibitive favorite then drew off convincingly under jockey Jose Lezcano.
My double investment returned just over $15. Came right back in the sixth, on the turf in a 3L claiming event with Chief Kitten - a Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner for Michael Maker. Too far back, rallied belatedly without making an impact while my third choice, Refer won and paid $7.40. My top pick - no bet - in the 7th ran out of the money but in the 8th, another nw2L I put Dolittle Raiders on top as the "best of a bad group" - had a bullet work for Nick Zito and was my SECOND $20 winner of the day, both of which I didn't bet. WOW. I did bet the ninth where Island Therapy was a big 12/1 in a starter allowance. Was 2nd as they turned for home and I thought maybe......stopped badly to be sixth. In the finale I thought Jorge Navarro's Casby's Kid would run well in a turf sprint for maiden claimers. Was 5/1 and didn't run a step. So one lone win to start the week, and that with a 3/5 favorite while not one but TWO $20 winners won without a bet.
Thursday January 19
Our buddy Keith arrived last night and today he was headed down to the Keys for an overnight stay. So I thought I'd take advantage of the nice weather and drive out to Gulfstream for the afternoon while picking up my Florida Derby tickets. Nineteen have committed to the Derby Day adventure and I was fortunate enough to be able to consolidate the tickets into more of a block arrangement. I've had a cough and been worn down, along with still recovering from the back issues, and by the time I'd picked up my tickets I decided I really didn't want to stand around for a couple of hours waiting for the races to come up. So I made my bets on the Gulfstream races and on the races I'd handicapped from both the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn and headed home after watching just one live race. In the one live race I saw my top pick, Facade swung to the front as the turned for home at 9/5 but was caught in deep stretch by the 6/5 favorite, who I didn't like. When I got home I was able to pull up the replay for the third at Gulfstream. It was a no-conditions allowance race going a one-turn mile. Mo Green was dropping out of consecutive stakes tries and she was my top pick. Her last was a sharp second coming off a four month layoff and finishing behind a sharp winner while Mo Green was clear of the rest of the field. Paco Lopez had the mount and he'd ridden her three times to a win and two seconds. Finally, in my opinion she'd seen MUCH stronger company than today's rivals. She was inside right behind the pace to the turn and looked to split horses, but nothing opened, so when they turned for home Lopez took her back inside and she burst up the rail to take the lead. A stretch duel to the wire ensued with my third choice but on the wire I was the narrow winner!
The price was a fair 9/5 so I cashed for nearly $30. I also had the winner in the opener at Oaklawn where Friend of Liberty ran to her even money odds. The fifth at Gulfstream was a 3-lifetime race going a one-turn mile. Last time out I'd been all over Over the Limit and he'd wired the 2L field for Jorge Navarro. I thought there was other speed today and he was stepping up in class so I went with Gran Identidad who would be coming late at a price. That was all true as he rallied strongly at 5/1, but was second best behind Over the Limit who ran away again. In the sixth I tripled the bet on Nassau Talent who was 3/5 at post time for Ken & Sarah Ramsey on the turf. Right there pressing the leader ready to run away at the top of the lane.......evenly to the wire, 4th. I thought for sure I had the winner in the 7th, a maiden claimer for 3yo on the turf and I took top jockey Javier Castellano on KLS Forty Three who was dropping from $50K to $35K. Like Nassau Talent I was right there turning for home but didn't have a closing kick, faded to fifth at 7/2. Looked like this would be just another week day where I was close without winning when the runners lined up for the 8th which was my "BEST" of the day. Check out my analysis.....
Well the first thing that went wrong was when the gates sprung open More Mia was off a step slowly and suddenly was sixth behind a line of horses. This can't be good, and with very little ground to make a recovery in a five furlong sprint. Seemed to be running evenly until the top of the lane and then the long-time leader began to shorten stride while a line of runners were surging to the front. It was a WILD finish and just fifty yards out my nose was in front....bobbing heads, PHOTO FINISH! I, and track announcer Pete Aiello both thought More Mia was the winner, and the photo confirmed it. But the best part - check out the price my friends......
That's right, $9.00 to win and with my "prime time" ticket that meant I'd cash for $90! Right back in the fifth at the Fair Grounds where Sweet Halory scored at 9/5 for my fourth win on the afternoon. If I'd been patient enough to hang around at the races I would have been enjoying a very nice afternoon! But then reality returned as I missed on my last six selections - a second, three times third, and a fourth all ate into my profits. But for the day I was still a good 4-for-14, nearly 30% and had a profit of nearly $10. I'll take it for a weekday. Check out the video replay of More Mia's exciting win....
Thursday's BEST Bet: More Mia
Friday January 20
Off the nice day at the races I was hoping to build momentum for the big afternoon at the track Saturday today. I only had four selections on the card. In the third, a no-conditions allowance I liked Chad Brown's Saham with top rider Javier Castellano coming off the layoff. Sent off at 4/1, a generous price I thought, he sat off the pace in fifth and ran evenly to the wire to finish fourth. I came back with unbeaten Worth Avenue in a 3yo entry-level allowance sprint in the fourth. Pressed the pace to the stretch, forged to the front, but was outfinished late, third by a decisive half dozen. Passed the fifth - the winner of the maiden claiming turf event paid nearly $60 ... no, not on my list of contenders :) In the sixth it was another maiden claiming event and it was hard to bet "real money" on Singelton for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey because he was already 0-for-10 and had finished third in BOTH his last two starts at short odds. But today did mark the first time that he was under the care of Michael Maker and he was plunging from $30K to $12.5K. And I really didn't care for any of his rivals. Sent off at a prohibitive 1/5 he ran like a Breeders' Cup champion today drawing off by daylight, under wraps for Luis Saez.
My double investment returned a mere $13.00 My last bet was a minimum play in the 7th, a five furlong turf sprint for older maiden specials. I liked Christophe Clement's Tu Exageres with Castellano. Off very slowly but flying late to be second at 4/1. Sigh..... So I finished just 1-for-4 on the day. But tomorrow is Sunshine Millions Day!
You can check out the individual blog on this big Saturday where Keith and I made an all-out attack on the races. The short version is that I won with TWELVE selections, nearly 40% and had some nice stakes wins. But I only won with two at Gulfstream. However, one of those was the story of the day! In the 8th, a non-winners of two lifetime turf sprint I liked Bill Mott's Black Eagle. He was the ONLY one in the field he'd not run in two-lifetime company. As they turned for home he was way back but hit another gear and he was F-L-Y-I-N-G on the outside.....so close, PHOTO finish! But no, the front running leader had barely held on. The photo revealed I was at least second. But then, wait a tic, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets there is a steward's inquiry into the stretch run and it involves the unofficial winner!" It was about a ten minute wait, but from the first look at the head-on view the only people who were no certain the "winner" was coming down were those who had tickets on that unofficial winner. Sure enough, even though the interference was with the third place horse and had nothing to do with me, Black Eagle was promoted to the winner. And check out the price, oh my!
My triple investment returned over $80! I felt badly that Keith, despite having my selection sheet, decided to go his own way all day and unfortunately cashed only a couple of small tickets. But we did enjoy spending the day at the races under the beautiful Florida "winter" skies.
The generous $6.80 payoff led me to collect nearly $35 to start my Sunday! WHOOO HOOOO! I tabbed Winning for Sarah in a starter optional claiming sprint in the fourth, but she was only third at 4/1. The fifth was another 3yo maiden sprint. Yes, there was a Pletcher filly and this one had all the credentials to add to the pile of future star sophomores who break their maiden at first asking for Pletcher at Gulfstream during the Championship Meet. Ghalia was a $600K Keeneland sales grad that had been working steadily since October for her debut today. There were a few who'd run well enough in earlier starts that you might think their experience would beat the Pletcher filly. But my money was on Ghalia and jockey John Velazquez, again. She broke a step slowly and the 2nd choice on the board sprinted to the front. Before they'd gone through the first 16th of a mile Velazquez had his filly pressing that leader. By the time they arrived at the first call she was easing to the lead and with each passing pole she extended that margin to win in a dazzling debut. Future stakes star is my guess for this one. Unfortunately the crowd saw what I did and sent her off as a prohibitive 3/5 favorite.
But, I'd tripled the bet so I would be collecting for nearly $25 on my second win, and the second of the day for Team Pletcher! I passed the sixth and the seventh. I did write for the seventh that I couldn't understand how anyone could bet the likely odds-on favorite, Adagio who was 0-for-11 with SIX losses as the favorite to date. Already second twice at this basement level as well. But I did consider that I'd taken Singleton on Friday in a similar situation. Still, no bet for me. Like that Friday winner Adagio drew off at even money. The eighth was a maiden 3yo race on the turf. YES there WAS a Pletcher filly. The first few years that I handicapped daily at Gulfstream I knew like everyone SHOULD know that Pletcher 3yo on the dirt are nearly always "money in the bank" - especially debut runners and comebackers off a long break. But his numbers on the turf are not nearly as good. But it didn't take me long to learn that while he doesn't win at the same high rate on the grass, often he does win at out-of-proportion prices considering it's Pletcher-at Gulfstream-with a three-year-old. Such was the case here in the eighth where Adorable Miss was his filly. I thought it was most telling that top turf trainer Chad Brown sent out Abbreviate and his go-to rider, Javier Castellano had opted to ride the Pletcher filly. Hmmmm. As heads turned for home it was these two fillies dueling to the wire. But Brown's filly couldn't get by Castellano on Adorable Miss. And what was MOST "adorable" was the price......
Yes, oh my, $11 win payout so that my third winner on the day, my third maiden 3yo from the Todd Pletcher barn, paid me $55! What a wonderful day! The only thing that kept today from probably being THE highlight day of the meet to date was that my "BEST" of the day in the 9th - a Chad Brown filly on the turf with Javier Castellano - Puissant - was wide through the final turn while the filly she'd be running with throughout the race waited for room on the inside and got through to win - I was fourth. After a loss in the finale at 2/1 I added up the figures on the day......six selections, three wins, and a profit of $63! What a great way to end the week!
My double investment returned a mere $13.00 My last bet was a minimum play in the 7th, a five furlong turf sprint for older maiden specials. I liked Christophe Clement's Tu Exageres with Castellano. Off very slowly but flying late to be second at 4/1. Sigh..... So I finished just 1-for-4 on the day. But tomorrow is Sunshine Millions Day!
Click HERE to read today's journal
You can check out the individual blog on this big Saturday where Keith and I made an all-out attack on the races. The short version is that I won with TWELVE selections, nearly 40% and had some nice stakes wins. But I only won with two at Gulfstream. However, one of those was the story of the day! In the 8th, a non-winners of two lifetime turf sprint I liked Bill Mott's Black Eagle. He was the ONLY one in the field he'd not run in two-lifetime company. As they turned for home he was way back but hit another gear and he was F-L-Y-I-N-G on the outside.....so close, PHOTO finish! But no, the front running leader had barely held on. The photo revealed I was at least second. But then, wait a tic, "Ladies and Gentlemen, please hold all tickets there is a steward's inquiry into the stretch run and it involves the unofficial winner!" It was about a ten minute wait, but from the first look at the head-on view the only people who were no certain the "winner" was coming down were those who had tickets on that unofficial winner. Sure enough, even though the interference was with the third place horse and had nothing to do with me, Black Eagle was promoted to the winner. And check out the price, oh my!
My triple investment returned over $80! I felt badly that Keith, despite having my selection sheet, decided to go his own way all day and unfortunately cashed only a couple of small tickets. But we did enjoy spending the day at the races under the beautiful Florida "winter" skies.
Sunshine Millions Video Recap
Sunday January 22
A MOST Amazing Day!
It's so ironic how handicapping works - it's what makes someone like me just love this game. I had spent HOURS over two days time handicapping six different racing cards - Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Laurel, Tampa, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream - for Saturday and had come up with thirty-four selections...from which I won with a dozen as noted above. Comparatively, I spent about an hour looking at the Sunday card for Gulfstream; came up with six races and WON three of them AND cashed for over $60 profit on the day! Go figure! Here's the final day of the week went down. I passed the opener where all the runners had already lost at this basement level, 2-lifetime level. It's worth noting that I was "right" that it was a toss-up/chaos race as the winner was 80/1, the runner-up was nearly 60/1, and the "short-priced" show horse was "only" 8/1. The 1/5 favorite was fourth leading to these payouts: $169.80 to win; $2 exacta paid $2,044; $2 trifecta paid $8,900! WOW. I also passed the second which had a more reasonable 3/1 winner. In the third race it was a 3yo maiden claiming event going six furlongs. I've learned, often the hard way, that Todd Pletcher makes Gulfstream his personal playground with ALL 3yo maidens. Don't be fooled that this was a maiden claiming event - there was a debuting runner, Coors Lute and it had top go-to rider John Velazquez on board. To the far turn he was fifth of six runners, but began gathering momentum while circling the field. He caught the leaders at the top of the lane and continued his sustained run to score going away. My first winner of the day! Ironic that yesterday I had told Keith that Saturday was an unusual day with very few runners from the top Pletcher barn, and here we are with a Pletcher winner right away on Sunday. A MOST Amazing Day!
The generous $6.80 payoff led me to collect nearly $35 to start my Sunday! WHOOO HOOOO! I tabbed Winning for Sarah in a starter optional claiming sprint in the fourth, but she was only third at 4/1. The fifth was another 3yo maiden sprint. Yes, there was a Pletcher filly and this one had all the credentials to add to the pile of future star sophomores who break their maiden at first asking for Pletcher at Gulfstream during the Championship Meet. Ghalia was a $600K Keeneland sales grad that had been working steadily since October for her debut today. There were a few who'd run well enough in earlier starts that you might think their experience would beat the Pletcher filly. But my money was on Ghalia and jockey John Velazquez, again. She broke a step slowly and the 2nd choice on the board sprinted to the front. Before they'd gone through the first 16th of a mile Velazquez had his filly pressing that leader. By the time they arrived at the first call she was easing to the lead and with each passing pole she extended that margin to win in a dazzling debut. Future stakes star is my guess for this one. Unfortunately the crowd saw what I did and sent her off as a prohibitive 3/5 favorite.
But, I'd tripled the bet so I would be collecting for nearly $25 on my second win, and the second of the day for Team Pletcher! I passed the sixth and the seventh. I did write for the seventh that I couldn't understand how anyone could bet the likely odds-on favorite, Adagio who was 0-for-11 with SIX losses as the favorite to date. Already second twice at this basement level as well. But I did consider that I'd taken Singleton on Friday in a similar situation. Still, no bet for me. Like that Friday winner Adagio drew off at even money. The eighth was a maiden 3yo race on the turf. YES there WAS a Pletcher filly. The first few years that I handicapped daily at Gulfstream I knew like everyone SHOULD know that Pletcher 3yo on the dirt are nearly always "money in the bank" - especially debut runners and comebackers off a long break. But his numbers on the turf are not nearly as good. But it didn't take me long to learn that while he doesn't win at the same high rate on the grass, often he does win at out-of-proportion prices considering it's Pletcher-at Gulfstream-with a three-year-old. Such was the case here in the eighth where Adorable Miss was his filly. I thought it was most telling that top turf trainer Chad Brown sent out Abbreviate and his go-to rider, Javier Castellano had opted to ride the Pletcher filly. Hmmmm. As heads turned for home it was these two fillies dueling to the wire. But Brown's filly couldn't get by Castellano on Adorable Miss. And what was MOST "adorable" was the price......
Yes, oh my, $11 win payout so that my third winner on the day, my third maiden 3yo from the Todd Pletcher barn, paid me $55! What a wonderful day! The only thing that kept today from probably being THE highlight day of the meet to date was that my "BEST" of the day in the 9th - a Chad Brown filly on the turf with Javier Castellano - Puissant - was wide through the final turn while the filly she'd be running with throughout the race waited for room on the inside and got through to win - I was fourth. After a loss in the finale at 2/1 I added up the figures on the day......six selections, three wins, and a profit of $63! What a great way to end the week!
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