January 14 - Marshua's River Stakes Day

What a great day this turned out to be!  Yesterday afternoon Kim's family arrived and I was happy that my father-in-law Edwin joined me for a day at the races.  As we drove out to Gulfstream I reminded him that it was on this EXACT same race day last winter we were out here and in fact one of the horses he bet on and won with was running again today....in that same stakes event!  Gulfstream was the national headline program with three graded stakes while the biggest national single race was at Santa Anita.  The weather was cloudy with spotty rain as the day started, but as you can see in the above banner, the weather turned "Florida picture postcard" like by the end of the day!  I told Ed as we drove out that there weren't any "stars" or big "mortal locks" today, but there were a lot of good "betting races."  I was content thinking that it would be fun to just be there, I'd enjoy just winning some races - I haven't been to the track since mid December.  Let's see how the day unfolded........

The first at Gulfstream was a pass for me, so the first bet came in the second where I liked Powerful Instinct in what looked like a wide-open affair.  He was 5/1 in the program and had the numbers to win.  As I told Ed, the horse that SHOULD win was Exclusive Strike who had FIFTEEN career turf wins and had made over $500K on the grass, but he was NOT my pick as he sported a "perfect" 0-for-14 record at Gulfstream.  As they turned for home Exclusive Strike forged to a narrow lead and here came Powerful Instinct at 5/1 - the one thing I was sure of was that Exclusive Strike would not hold on with that winless local resume.  He did, I was second.  In my second play, at Aqueduct, Saratoga Wildcat was an even fifth at 4/1.  Back inside for the Laurel opener where either you swallowed the miniscule price on Royal Saint or you were guessing.  This one had been claimed by David Jacobson who makes his living by claiming and winning, then collecting the selling price because he drops his purchases into very likely spots where they are undervalued.  After paying $16K for this runner today he was in for a mere $5K tag and the non-winners of a race in six months condition!  Royal Saint cruised up to the leaders on the turn and looked the easiest of winners until midstretch when he began to tire and was life and death to hang on.  I was content to get 2/5 on this guy after he'd been 1/5 most of the betting.  The next race on my sheet was the third from Gulfstream and as I went to the windows to make my bet I thought about how this race would go a long way in determining what kind of day I'd have.  Even though it was NOT one of the three graded stakes, this was my BEST of the day locally.  This is one of those races that makes Gulfstream special.  Maiden Special Weight three-year-olds, with nearly all of them without experience.  You know the question, is there a Todd Pletcher debut runner?  There most certainly is, Run and Go.  Even better, the filly is a debut runner, one of Pletcher's Gulfstream specialties; EVEN BETTER, Javier Castellano was on board.  The only "curious" item was that the owner was top NY owner Michael Repole and nearly every one of his Pletcher runners has John Velazquez up - but not today.  Sharp works, you know he'll be well bet.  Run and Go broke sharply, pressed the pace to the turn and then took off winning with authority.  As I walked down the stairs from out seats I glanced at the board and the one thing I could tell without being able to see the final odds was that he was NOT the favorite!  WHAT?????

I could not believe my good fortune as Run and Go paid a whopping $7.60 and with my prime time investment I would cash for more than $75!  HOW could this happen?  Posted my pic on Facebook to let EVERYONE know how I had it and most others did not!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!  Nice that Ed had it as well :)  In the fourth at Gulfstream Kausastorm was bet down to 2/1 mild favoritism but was only fifth.  Missed at Aqueduct at a big 5/1 price.  I came back up to watch the fifth at Gulfstream and completely lost track of the fact that I had been waiting for the fourth at Tampa.  So I pulled up the replay on my xpressbet account on my phone and watched Judy's Chance win!  I had made my bet for the fifth at Gulfstream where Ohio was 8/1 in the program and was my UPSET Special.  Two back on the turf he was third behind two horses that came right back to win, then last time out he dueled to the stretch before weakening to be third and the runner-up has since come back to win.  Both these facts would point him out, but today he was first off the claim for a barn that scores at an amazing 45% with those and with a rider that's 44% for the outfit.  But as I began to make my way towards the stairs to head back to our seats I noted he was 4/5 in the betting.  Granted there were some scratches, including what I thought were the two most likely alternatives, but still.  I considered all this and then made the bold move to take my minimum wager and triple it!  As they moved through the turn Ohio took over, opened up and was easily best.  TWO WINS at Gulfstream!

Just as I'd lost track of the Tampa race I miscalculated the post times and missed the Oaklawn opener - didn't get a bet it.....just as well, finished off the board - horray for my forgetfulness!  Now it was time for the featured Marshua's River Stakes, a Grade 3 event.  This time last year I had been reluctant to bet on Sandiva who had run really well at Gulfstream in 2015, but had not won since.  But then she showed her affinity for the course by winning this event.  Well, same thing today - zero wins since then, and just like last year, she'd lost her So Fla winter debut.  Every reason to go against her.  I also didn't like that Todd Pletcher was sending out stablemate Isabella Sings who looked to all alone on a big lead.  I'd seen her open up EIGHTEEN lengths last year in the Grade 3 Hillsborough at Tampa on BC champ Tepin and get inhaled.  But there were no Tepins in here.  I felt a little better that Pletcher had Edgar Zayas on board and that made me think she was a little less formidable.  Castellano on Sandiva sealed the deal.  Sure enough, Isabella Sings was way out in front, still five clear as they hit the far turn, but Sandiva was in full flight now with all the momentum.  Isabella Sings fought gamely and held on to inside the 16th pole but it was clear that Sandiva had the momentum and she ran by late to post the score.

I thought that 7/5 was a bit of a short price but wasn't surprised.  It was nice to see Ed have this winner as well.  I didn't have a bet in Gulfstream's seventh but I had seven bets at several simulcast spots before the eighth.  In Aqueduct's Jazil Stakes Royal Posse looked easily best as the favorite.  But I just had a bad feeling, so I only bet the minimum.  The gates opened, right to his knees.  I knew something would go wrong - fourth at 6/5.  Was surprised when Be Nice or Leave opened up at 4/5 on the Tampa turf and was caught in the shadow of the wire - 2nd.  Scored in Aqueduct's sixth when Diversity was pounded down to 1/5 despite being drawn in post nine with other speed to his inside.  But he quickly opened to the lead and had enough to hold on to win. I had upped the bet from a minimum to a double investment :)

Note the snow!  It was overcast at the beginning of the day, but it was snowing to beat the band at post time with huge flakes and by later in the day there was at least three inches on the ground!  At Laurel I was clear in the What A Summer Stakes with 8/5 favorite Disco Chick, but he weakened to be 2nd late.  Missed at Oaklawn when Game Loading stopped badly and then at the Fair Grounds where debuting L'Atelier didn't fire.  Time for Gulfstream's eighth - an entry level allowance going nine furlongs on the grass.  This, like so many of the races today looked wide open.  But, Zennor had just missed with a big number in his 2016 finale at Aqueduct for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and the powerful international Godolphin Stable.  The running lines just looked like the horse needed a good, strong finishing rider.  Paco Lopez is such a rider and while he's rarely aboard for McLaughlin he was today.  Lopez sent him straight to the front but a double-digit longshot hounded him throughout.  As they it the far turn I know this usually pans out.  Any runner on the lead that's faced pressure throughout is going to give way late, even good ones, especially on the turf where strong finishers nearly always do well.  But at the 1/8th pole Lopez asked for more and Zennor exploded to draw off with a flourish!

And while the 9/5 price was shorter than I thought I'd have received, I was happy with the $5.80 payoff on my double investment....and again Ed won :)  As I walked inside I saw the replay of the fourth from Oaklawn where I'd picked Rockshaw - he too drew off at 9/5 and I had TWO winning tickets worth nearly $30 each!  I was second at 4/1 in a Laurel stake and then a non-threatening sixth at 3/1 in the 9th at Gulfstream.  I was 2nd at 6/5 with a four-wide trip all the way in the 7th at the Fair Grounds before the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale went to post.  I told Ed as we waited for the horses to load that I loved being at Gulfstream and I'd be content to stay through all twelve races, but that if he wanted to leave after this one I was ok with that.  We agreed to do that.  As they lined up I told Ed that I thought the race was wide open and that I didn't have a lot of confidence in Divisidoro today, even though he is one of my all-time favorite horses.  But he usually needs one off the bench to produce his best, which is usually at a longer distance.  Still, he was my pick.  Flying late, but just third at 2/1 while the winner was a huge price upset.  We headed to the car and drove home to a home-cooked meal in the new kitchen - even though there was no running water in the kitchen, the twins made it work.  I sat down to watch the last six races on my sheet on the computer afterwards.  I was third at 7/5 at Oaklawn with a minimum bet and then it was time for the 11th at Gulfstream, the third graded stakes - the Grade 3 Hal's Hope.  Last year Todd Pletcher had sent out three runners and Tommy Macho freaked that day running a career best Beyer.  He'd not won since, but I thought he might just freak again.  He was a fair 5/2 as they left the gate and was making up some ground into the far turn when he clipped heels, steadied and dropped back.  Sigh.....well, that's that.  But then jockey Luis Saez gathered him up, got his feet under him and asked for his run.  He surged between horses, caught the leaders and then RAN AWAY......WOW, how unexpected was that!

The $7.20 payoff with my double investment meant I'd have nearly $40 to collect upon my return to the races.  I missed the last two picks at Oaklawn and the finale at Gulfstream, but the my BET of the Day was still on tap at Santa Anita.  The Grade 2 La Canada had only five fillies in the race and program favorite Vale Dori had beaten three of the four last time under wraps.  There just didn't seem any legitimate way she'd lose AND she appeared to be the lone speed from the rail.  With my $50 win bet I wasn't going to pad my profits but a loss would compromise any chance of a winning day.  Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith eased his filly to the front before they hit the first turn and she galloped home without ever really being asked!  WHOOO HOOO!

Vale Dori became my TENTH win on the day!  The final figures for the day......ten wins from twenty-seven selections - that's 37% and a profit of over $50!  A good day indeed!

January 14th Highlights