Race 11 - 12

Tale of Silence It wouldn't be a surprise to see this colt jump up and run a big one today.  Last time out he was 2nd behind a Pletcher monster in a Gulfstream Park sprint.  But, he's already seen two of today's rivals and was soundly beaten by them.  An outside chance with sudden improvement.

The Money Monster A debut win at Gulfstream Park West would indicate that he's not among the best winter three-year-olds in South Florida.  But off that win he came here and won the Pasco Stakes.  Now a perfect two-for-two for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, this colt goes two turns for the first time and steps up into graded company.  Don't sell him too short.

Basha After back-to-back wins to kick off his career he's been 2nd and 3rd in two listed stakes at Gulfstream.  He'd be a surprise for me.

No Dozing Had the look of a serious challenger in the Grade 3 Sam Davis here a month ago behind the odds-on, unbeaten favorite McCracken.  But in retrospect, his "signature" second in the Grade 2 Remsen was shown to be a weak race when the winner came back as a huge disappointment in a Fair Grounds stakes - even his trainer BEFORE that New Orleans race was skeptical.  Then No Dozing shows up with a sleep-walking sixth here in the Davis behind at least a couple of these.  Not for me.

Tapwrit Todd Pletcher has SOOOO many good three-year-olds, and this is one of them.  After a MSW win at GPW - so ok, I'm skeptical - he came back to win a sloppy state-bred sprint in the mud.  Then he shipped here and was a late running second behind the unbeaten McCracken (missing the race due to injury).  Has to be considered one of the most logical to win today.

Beasley This guy looks sneaky good to me.  Won his debut at Aqueduct and then was a best-of-the-rest second in his first try vs. winners.  The winner of that race is a quality colt.  Then last time out he went two turns for the first time and rallied to be a good second behind Todd Pletcher's Battalion Runner.  That colt is exceptionally talented and he was my BET of the Day in BOTH of his career starts.  Considered so good by Pletcher, Battalion Runner will next go in the Grade 1 Florida Derby!  There are not any Battalion Runners in this field I can tell you.  Top NY rider Irad Ortiz picks up the mount.

Sonic Mule He looks like the pacesetter and he could easily set the table for his late running stablemate Tapwrit as this one is another Pletcher colt.  He looks to have distance limitations.  Right to the front to the far turn and then fades away is my projected trip for him.  Still, Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez rides.....what if he gets out there in front without a challenger and forgets to stop.  Upset chance.

State of Honor Came running late to just miss behind Sonic Mule in the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream and was then third in the Grade 3 Sam Davis.  If you like Tapwrit, then you have to give him some consideration.

Wild Shot Off a maiden wire-to-wire sprint win he went in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity where he was caught by BC champion and early Kentucky Derby favorite Classic Empire.  Then he sat just off the pace and took the lead in the Gr 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, before being run down by McCracken.  Came here; sat off the pace, moved to the front into the stretch, then was run down by McCracken.  Well, neither Classic Empire or McCracken are here to run him down today.  Have to like his chances in a wide open Derby field.  Might be significant that he ran well in his first start, then WON in his second start.  His last was his first off the bench, and today is his second.....just sayin'

Zion Valley Still a winless maiden and was beaten in a cheap $16K maiden claimer last time.  What are the connections thinking?  At least he's on the outside and shouldn't interfere with any of these quality colts.

P D's Adventure First time starter with ONE, just one morning workout.  No. 

Dreamadreamforme Was 3/1 in a MSW like this here and was a close-up second heading into the turn before fading last time.  Might improve enough.

Firstappeal This filly debuts for a barn that's a good 23% with first time starters.  Like the dozen, well-spaced workouts dating back to early December.  A possibility.

Shezawave Was third for a $50K tag at GPW two back - I'd be surprised.

Rruntoperfection Has some good works for her debut; is locally based and the barn wins 23% with first timers.  Not out of the realm of possibilities.

Rightonby After a slow start in her debut she was flying to be third three weeks ago.  Cuts back from seven furlongs to six and has a bullet work for today.

Include the Best I'll be listening and watching for the changes on the card because it's unusual to see top national jockey Florent Geroux sticking around to ride in this maiden race before heading back to his New Orleans base.  The trainer, Tom Proctor, is the top trainer here this winter.  Very, very interesting.

Luva's Last Wonder Ships in from a lower level track in Ohio with four losses already and a 1-for-16 trainer.  No.

Boucidea's Revenge Was second to Rightonby's third last time out.  If you like that one, you have to like this one.  Not a big fan of either honestly.

Mistress of the Dark Ninth (yes, 9th) in all three starts beaten a combined 62 lengths....sound to you like the recipe for a next out winner?  No.