Week 14

Thursday March 2 - Sunday March 5

Fountain of Youth Week

This week's highlight actually happened OFF track.  The 2017 Breeders' Cup is being held at iconic Del Mar in San Diego this coming November for the first time.  The seating capacity of Del Mar is similar to that of Keeneland - MUCH smaller than Santa Anita or Churchill Downs which have way over 100,000 seats so tickets are never a problem.  Because of my Keeneland experience - where due to the limited seating if you wanted tickets you had to (a) buy a two-day package and (b) the prices were over double the normal price of a Breeders' Cup weekend I wanted to be "first in line" to get tickets for the big Del Mar event.  As a Breeders' Cup "preferred" fan I knew I'd get an early shot at seats, but I didn't realize I'd get a big head start on the public.  Ticket sales were announced to be opened to the general public on Monday March 6th.  But I got an email that I would have the opportunity to get my tickets on Thursday March 2nd at 9 am.  In the email I was told I'd get a special code on Wednesday March 1st.  Sure enough I got an email on Wednesday giving my special code and reminding me tickets would go on sale at 9 am - either online or by phone.  

Well I knew that calling would be no good, and again based on the Keeneland experience I was wary of "losing my place in line" so I set up a second laptop so I could be in two places at the same time!  Thursday morning I got up and was going to work on my handicapping until 9 am and then get the seats.  I opened up the Breeders' Cup ticket site to make a final determination about which section I wanted - if I had a choice - and to see what seats in general were available.  When I logged in I was asked for my code and when I put it in I got a message that the code was not active yet - duh, it's not 9 am, which I knew, but I could still SEE the seats available, not buy them.  After I got an idea of where I wanted to get seats I closed the page and was back on the email and then I noticed it.....the seats will be open at 9 am PACIFIC TIME!  That's noon our time.  Plenty of time to handicap and go for my walk before getting the tickets.  So that's what I did.  I returned from my walk about 9:30 am, jumped in the pool and after cooling down for a few minutes I got online with both computers to begin my wait.  I noted the time of 9:45 am and I decided to look again at the seat options.  Got on the ticket page, put in the "invalid code" and hit ENTER.  But instead of being told my code was invalid, I was into the seat selection process!  WAIT A MINUTE!  This is three hours early.  I didn't know whether to be mad because I could have been in - apparently - 45 minutes ago AND obviously the information was inaccurate, or to be delighted that there were probably hundreds if not thousands of would-be Breeders' Cup fans waiting until noon because that was what they'd been told.  Regardless because I was too clever for the BC ticket site I got my first choice of tickets AND got aisle seats!  How cool is that!  

I have been searching for nearly nine months for a cruise or land adventure to go on either prior to or following the Breeders' Cup, since I'm flying all the way across the country.  But everything I look at doesn't fit my schedule.  My first choice was a California Coast Cruise - but there is one that returns to San Diego five days before the Breeders' Cup and another that leaves ON Breeders' Cup Saturday.  So I resigned myself that I wouldn't be doing that.  With that in mind I decided that since I was "saving" the money from not cruising, etc., I would look for a really nice ocean front room.  And I found one......  

I also decided to go a day early to I'd have a full day (Thursday) to enjoy the greater San Diego area - maybe going for a sail on the Pacific (found several options) or maybe just handicap on the balcony and walk the beach!  So I was really happy with the way it all turned out and is shaping up.  And then the end to the story was a noon my phone dinged to indicate I had just received an email.  I opened it up and check it out.....note the time.....

I'm just way too clever for them :)

Thursday March 2 

The week started out with a typical "track story."  First, there was no racing this week on Wednesday due to the Florida Juvenile Sales being held here.  So the first live racing day began when Bermuda Triangle was sent off at 3/5 and was no better than third when outrun to the lead in a 3-lifetime turf sprint.  Lost the second, AGAIN at 3/5 when Rich Daddy was fortunate to get second after acting like he had no interest in running today throughout.  The first two races would prove to be representative of the week in retrospect.  No picks until the sevent when Loving Valentina was the 4/5 favorite and dueled from gate to mid-stretch before weakening to be third.  Three odds-on plays, all losses.  But in the finale, which when I opened xpressbet.com to watch the replay they were loading into the gate for the live finale, so I hooked it up to the new 55" flat screen in the family room, I had picked Paco Lopez to score on Eloy Rod in a 3yo maiden claiming sprint on the turf.  He was 6/1 in the program but I was hopeful - after the first three races - that he'd might be 2/1.  He set the pace to the top of the stretch and when challenged he responded.  But for ever two strides forward he was running one stride outward!  Steadily losing ground, but somehow he managed to stay in front!  As they hit the wire, it was close but in spite of nearly scraping paint on the OUTER rail he was the winner!  

And the best part, he was 3/1!  So my double investment returned $40 and suddenly I was even for the day!

Friday March 3

Suffered through an 0-for-5 day with two seconds and a third, including my "BEST" of the day at 3/5 in the 10th.  No fun, but it must mean I'm due to have a big day tomorrow when I'm at the races!

NINE big stakes races from a thirteen race card, including EIGHT graded stakes - what a big day at Gulfstream Park!  I was anxious to get to the live races as I'd not been here in for three weeks, after being in Napa Valley then Orlando the last two weekends.  Today was also the Grade 3 Gotham where I wouldn't make any money but the favorite was EASILY the horse to beat.  And the BET of the Day would be Unique Bella - who if she's healthy and ready, will be my BET of the WEEKEND on Derby weekend in the Kentucky Oaks.  I think she'd win the Kentucky Derby against the colts if she ran there, but against the fillies - slam dunk!  To I got to Gulfstream and beat what turned out to be a huge crowd and in the opener I did something I rarely do, especially on the weekend.  Typically the "prime time" bets are in the big races or featured allowance races later in the day.  But the opener was an entry level allowance for three-year-olds.  Horses making their first start after a maiden win usually do NOT run back to that kind of an effort and are usually sketchy plays at best.  And horses who run at Tampa then ship to Gulfstream are taking a big step up in class.  Well, Always Dreaming was doing BOTH - he'd just won his maiden at Tampa and was now facing allowance runners while coming to Gulfstream off that Tampa victory.  But his win had been so convincing (by 11 1/2 lengths in hand) that I thought he looked much the best of these.  So did the crowd who sent him off as the prohibitive 1/9 favorite.  Jockey John Velazquez sent him right to the front and he coasted all the way around the track as easily, EASILY the best!  

What a great way to start the day!  Oh it's going to be a good day, I thought.  The next winning ticket I cashed was at 4:30 pm.  That's right - 4 1/2 hours later.  FOURTEEN straight losses with thirteen of them being 2/1 or less in the wagering.  But I kept firing because (a) I knew I'd start to win eventually and (b) the big bets were late in the day.  In the 8th at Gulfstream I won my first and only stakes locally when Ticonderoga came flying down the middle of the track.  

His 5/2 price was good enough for me to cash for over $50 and I thought, "now here we go!"  But again, disappoitment followed.  With Kim in Englewood for the weekend I wanted to still go to the Florida Panthers hockey game this evening as we're coming down to the final stretch of the season and we're fighting to get into the playoffs.  I didn't know how I'd work that into the schedule with there being stakes races all the way up until nearly 6 pm here.  But after handicapping I found that I hand minimum plays in the later races so I'd leave after the 11th at Gulfstream.  AND that would give me time to see the first of the bigger bets, the Grade 3 Gotham from New York.  The favorite there was El Aareeb who'd rattled off two straight against NY rivals.  And as I wrote in my analysis, he would be a big-time play against in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial next time out (and the Ky Derby) because he wasn't as good as he seemed and had been beating suspect competition.  Today he was facing three he'd beaten handily before and three new guys.  But his last three Beyer figures of 90 or more would beat ALL speed figures earned by his rivals today and he had two sharp workouts.  The first indication of trouble was the crowd let him go off at 2/5 when he easily should have been 1/5 or less.  Then jockey Trevor McCarthy gunned him to the front.  What are you doing, I thought, he's NOT a front runner.  Now to be fair sometimes in a big race the heavy favorite is simply too good for his competition and the good riders will just decide it early.  But given that he's NOT really a star horse and that this isn't his preferred style I was concerned.  Rightfully so as he weakened and finished third.  WOW.  Typical of the day.  I lost the 11th at Gulfstream and headed home with just two wins for the day so far.  I got a much needed win in Oaklawn's Gazebo Stakes when Rockshaw won at 2/1 and I had a $30+ winning ticket in my pocket.  Then it was time for the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita.  

The first problem here was I could not get any live video feed to work on the computer so I ended up watching it on my phone.  Secondly, Unique Bella was a prohibitive 1/9 early in the wagering - certainly she'll float up to 1/5....could I hope for 2/5?  No, 1/9 at post time.  She'd drawn the rail and she was fast enough to wire the field, but I thought Mike Smith would let one of the longshots take the front and he'd stalk the pace.  Much like El Areeb she towered over her rivals but there was a filly who'd won a Grade 1 as a 2yo last time out and she had to be considered a threat if Unique Bella wasn't at her best.  The gates opened and Unique Bella hesitated.  Not good.  Smith tried to get to the front but the rail was closing so he asked her for speed.  It was a tight fit but she muscled her way through and had to fight through a fast first quarter.  Hmmmm, not good again.  But as they turned down the backside Unique Bella was loping along on a five length lead in complete control and it looked like she was well within herself.  On the turn she was still in complete command but as they approached the top of the lane the Grade 1 winning filly was gathering momentum and had passed everyone else with dead aim on the favorite.  Unique Bella had never been asked to run and my heart began to pound because it was obvious, this was NOT going to be a romp in the park.  Smith saw the other filly and began to ask Unique Bella to run as the challenger got within a length with a furlong to go.  I was sweating bullets because after the day I'd had AND I'd invested $150 to WIN!  Really?  I can't even win with Unique Bella?  What a day!  But as soon as Smith gave her one crack with the whip the response was immediate and the quickly opened up to win going away.  WHEW!  

I took some solace in winning the BET of the Day, but finished the long day with a disappointing 30/4-7-7 record on the day.  Well, I reasoned, I still have the hockey game tonight.  And while I know it's not connected, it nearly always IS the case that a good day at the races is NOT followed by a positive result at the hockey game, but a less than big day at the races is nearly always followed by a win on the ice.  Like the sports gods will "give me one or the other."  :)  Quickly fell behind, tied it.  Headed for overtime with 1:07 on the clock when the Dallas Stars scored the winning goal.  The next day I ready that Dallas, heading into the game, had the worst road record in the NHL, had the worst penalty kill in the NHL (we went 1-for-3 on the power play), had lost six straight on the road, and had not on outside of Dallas since January 17th.  But tonight they beat us.  WOW - can my sports day turn out any worse?  Sigh......

Fountain of Youth Day Highlights

Sunday March 5

Typically on every day BUT Saturday I only have four-to-six picks, but today I thought I had nine very solid picks including one that was just oh-so-obvious.  And goodness knows if anyone is "due" to have some wins, it's me!  Third at 4/5, second at 7/2, second at 2/1.  Then in the fifth Paco Lopez had the ONLY front runner in the field.  Fenerbache was bet down from 2/1 to 4/5, but right out of the gate Lopez held him to rate in third.  The 6/1 front runner went wire to wire.  Wow.  Lost the next five races to finish 0-for-9 on the day.  Really, wow.  As you can see below, it wasn't like I wasn't finding what SHOULD have been the winners......for the week I had twenty-two horses at even money or less and the results.......

Only two wins.  Next week is Tampa Bay Derby Week and I'll be driving over to Tampa (Kim's away again for a girls' weekend in Daytona).  I'll pick up my father-in-law Edwin in Englewood and then we'll meet my gal-pal Anya and her husband Jack at the races for the day.  I'll look forward to that adventure :)