Valentine Wish As mentioned in the earlier Columbia Stakes for 3yo colts, moving from a maiden win to a stakes is really difficult. This filly not only goes maiden to stakes, but maiden to a GRADE 3 stakes. Tough to imagine her winning this.
Super Marina Is a perfect 2-for-2 here over the Tampa inner course. But the speed figures were slow and after that initial allowance win here she went to Gulfstream to run in the listed Ginger Brew - showed little. Would be a surprise honestly.
Dynatail Also a perfect two-for-two over the inner course here, but go back to the fall when a distant fourth to today's rival Super Marina might be the tell-tale race. Still, comes off a wire-to-wire score in an Ocala Stakes which often are KEY races. Will be the front runner today, but I don't see her lasting.
Daddys Lil Darling After a fourth in a sprint debut she won going two turns and then was in four straight graded events, including a sharp win in the Grade 2 Pocohontas at Churchill. Good second Grade 1 Alcibiades and Grade 2 Golden Rod have followed. BUT those were all on dirt. While bred for turf, I'm thinking that this might be the first step towards the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on the first Friday in May. I'm skeptical but respect her class.
La Coronel Unless you follow horse racing you'd probably miss the key event in this filly's past performance. Go back to her decisive maiden win at Saratoga. Note the second place runner was a filly by the name of New Money Honey. That filly came right back to win her maiden; followed that with a win in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo; and followed that up with a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf! After the victory over 'Money, La Coronel was again a decisive winner in the Grade 3 Jessamine at Keeneland. She was sent out west to the same Grade 1 BC championship but was marooned on the far outside in post 13 of 14 fillies. Next to impossible to win at a mile on the turf from a wide post, she was fortunate to get within three lengths of the winner. Been off since that November test. Top national rider Florent Geroux, her regular pilot is here today to ride. She has to be considered a very logical winner IF she's ready to run today.
Fiftyfive She's run very well in all of her starts and her Beyer speed figures show she's improved with each and every start. Her most recent was a close third, missed by less than a length, in Gulfstream's Grade 3 Sweetest Chant. The winner was a good fourth behind New Money Honey in the Gr 1 BC Juv Fillies Turf previously. Has to be given a chance, with a recency edge over the filly just to her inside.
Tamit She, like the filly just inside her, has also run well in every start and continues to improve. Won her Keeneland debut, then was a just-miss second in a Gulfstream allowance before fourth in the Gr 3 Sweetest Chant. Would have to improve by several lengths to catch the top two or three I think.
Like A Hurricane Has been away since November also, but while the three inside her all were in graded stakes, she was in a 2-lifetime event and went wire to wire. Will push Dynatail early but fades with that one.
Compelled The outside draw is no bargain, but to her credit she was 2nd in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant ahead of Fiftyfive and Tamit. Based on these three's resumes and how handily the winner blew by them all despite coming off a long layoff and a wide trip, I'd discount all three of them as strong win candidates. But if you don't like the logical favorite, it's one of these three.
Swiss Range In North American turf racing, any time you see a European invader you HAVE to immediately upgrade their chances as the turf runners over there are clearly superior to ours. With Swiss Range being a 2x winner in Great Britain and having run in back-to-back Group 1 events in Europe, she's a good fit here. Off of a layoff and a trip "across the pond" she was entered in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine. She was beaten less than two lengths despite the obstacles. And it's noteworthy that the runner-up out of that event has come back to win three straight, the last two as much the best in graded stakes at Gulfstream. Trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott, and racing in the internationally iconic silks of Juddmonte Farms, she's a legitimate win candidate. Mott-turf-off the shelf has been a winning angle for many years. She'll be the one rolling late.
Family Meeting Comes in here off her first win since November 2015 over a very, very suspect state-bred field at Gulfstream. Maybe for the place or show spots, not the win.
Dickinson Two back she was running late to be fourth behind today's favorite (who was third) in the Grade 3 Marshua's River. Then surprised the race favorite in the Grade 3 Suwannee River last time out. Note that win was at today's distance - she'll be one of the favorites and deservedly so as she's also from an international powerhouse stable, Godolphin Stables. AND she's won three of her last four.
Lot o' Lex After back-to-back strong showings she was beaten some TWENTY lengths by two of today's rivals. Unless there was some really good excuse for that, thoroughbreds don't make up twenty lengths in one start. Not for me.
Elysea's World She comes from one of the sharpest turf barns in North America - Chad Brown's stable. She was my second choice in the Grade 3 Suwannee River, but she was taken way too far off the pace that day. I think she's the closest to Isabella Sings when they hit the far turn and will have the jump on all the others. The question is two-fold - can she catch the favorite and is she good enough?
Isabella Sings She deserves the favorite's title. In this race last year she was eighteen - yes, you read that right - 18 lengths in front on the far turn. But she could not hold off the power finish of Breeders' Cup champion Tepin - who was originally schedule to make her 2017 debut here today (disappointing). Isabella set off on a front end mission last time out here in the Grade 3 Endeavour and I thought as they approached the far turn she'd run too fast too soon. But Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez had yet to ask her to run and she held on comfortably to win handily. I'm a touch skeptical as I never like to see a thoroughbred entered in a stakes that was not a planned start. Prior to the Endeavour it was announced that she'd be retired as she was already in foal. And yet, here she is again. Her chances would be enhanced if someone else sets the pace and she can sit just off them, but I don't see that happening. Only Dicksinson has run a recent figure that would top any of Isabella Sings' LAST THREE figures. The one to catch, the one to beat.
Light In Paris Was second best behind Isabella Sings in the Endeavour. Don't think she'd catch her today anyway, but that her speed figure declined in that effort is another negative sign.
Evidently Her three back rallying win in a Grade 3 makes her at least get a look-see. But she's a deep closer and other than that upset Gr 3 victory, she's not won since 2014. I'm passing in the win slot - maybe for 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.
My Impression She's won two of her last three - both stakes efforts, and one of those was a Grade 3. BUT those were against straight 3-year-olds and today she is making her first start since November while taking on older runners for the first time. Needs a major step forward.
Emerald Pond A distant sixth to Light In Paris two back, then a distant fourth behind that one and Isabella Sings in the Endeavour. Not for me.
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