Duvalin Dream Any runner exiting a maiden win faces probably their most difficult test against winners in their next start. This colt beat cheap $16K dirt sprinters last time out to win his maiden. Goes to a mile long TURF stakes events for his first try vs. winners. HIGHLY unlikely.
Big Bend Like the rail runner, this colt also exits a maiden win. But, I give him a much better chance - why? First, he's out of the top barn on the grounds which has been winning with nearly 40% of all of his starters. Secondly, that maiden win came against Maiden Special Weight company, the top level of maiden races. Third, that win was his first turf try ever and it produced a career high speed figure. Curious that he gets a rider change today. A tough task to beat maidens and then win a $100K stakes.
My Bariley After beating MSW rivals on the turf, here, three back he forged to the front vs. allowance runners in his first try vs. winners, before being nailed on the wire by today's rival Profiteer at 26/1 odds. Last was a big-time regression. Could bounce back, but is stepping up in class from allowance to stakes.
Profiteer Beat strong NY Maiden Specials for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey over the turf in October. When making his first start of the year, here, last time out he was the prohibitive 1-5 favorite and prevailed over 26-1 My Bariley by a desperate neck. That gives me pause that he was life-and-death over such a longshot. And the fact that one came back to run poorly does NOT speak well for this one's chances stepping up in class today.
Tiz A Slam This colt has sparkling form with three wins from four starts, including a stakes similar to this one. The lone defeat was a sharp fourth in a Grade 2 event. Has not been seen since October but four big works - three bullets and a near bullet for Canadian-based trainer Roger Attfield.
Muggsamatic His three wins tops the field, but it's noteworthy that ALL THREE came for a claiming tag. Facing stakes rivals is an entirely different game and it's more likely that he will get "mugged" in this spot.
Bird's Eye View A LOT to like here. After a nondescript win at Monmouth Park in New Jersey he was sent to Saratoga where all the top two-year-olds run. And off that maiden NJ victory he tried the Grade 2 With Anticipation. A surprising third at 16/1 odds. Came right back in Keeneland's Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes, and again surprised the crowd with a third place finish at 23/1 odds. Note that the winner of the With Anticipation has since come back to win another stakes race for Todd Pletcher. The runner up from that race came back to win the Bourbon; the runner-up of the Bourbon - who beat Bird's Eye View by a mere 1/2 length, came back last weekend to WIN Gulfstream's Grade 3 Palm Beach. AND it's worth noting that the 1-2 finishers of the Bourbon went on to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. The only question for me is if he's ready off the layoff. Has worked sharply for his return for a barn that's nearly 30% with runners off the shelf.
South Sea The good news is that he earned a career best in his last which was his first start....and he's trained by master conditioner Bill Mott. BUT he ran second and that was a non-winners of two LIFETIME event. Now faces stakes company. You COULD reason that for typically conservative trainer Mott putting him here after losing in a 2-lifetime event MIGHT indicate confidence. Hmmmm.
Sonic Boom With the exception of his debut he's always run well. He broke his maiden over the unusual course at Kentucky Downs (it has hills and dips with an uphill stretch run); then was a good second on the west coast in Santa Anita's Zuma Beach Stakes when well played at 4/1. Toss the dirt try next time out. Off the layoff last time out he was fourth in Gulfstream's Kitten's Joy Stakes. He was just behind Made You Look, who won the Grade 2 With Anticipation, so with a little creativity you might say he's close in ability to Bird's Eye View. That Made You Look ran much more poorly that he should have that day AND that the winner of the Kitten's Joy, Kitten's Cat ran poorly in the Grade 3 Palm Beach last weekend make him a more sketchy candidate than I like to support.
Holiday Stone He was a narrow winner in his 2nd start then was promoted to first in a photo finish at Gulfstream in allowance company. Ran evenly when sixth in that Kitten's Joy Stakes. Would need to step up today.
Blofeld A little over a year ago my father-in-law Ed was sitting next to me in the grandstands at Gulfstream when this guy came driving down the middle of the track to win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, beating his stablemate, Stanford - who will be lined up right beside him today. Since that win he's been beaten over FIFTY lengths in just four starts. At least you'll get a fair price on a Todd Pletcher graded stakes winner.
Stanford True, he was beaten by Blofeld in the Gr 2 GP Handicap. But here's the key to comparing these two Pletcher runners: In that race Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was riding Blofeld. In Stanford's last two starts Velazquez has been on this one....today he chooses to stick with Stanford. JUST missed as the short-priced favorite in the $400K Poseidon Stakes on Pegasus World Cup Day in January. My main concern is that his "signature wins" have come against lesser competition. But in looking up and down this line-up, THIS is the kind of field that he seems to perform best at. Note that of the 121 combined races run by the runners in this field there have been only seven triple digit speed figures and FOUR of them were earned by Stanford. Strictly the one to beat.
Hereditary Was a decisive winner in a second level allowance HERE last time out, so he's got a win over the track in his favor. That he was beaten as the 3/2 favorite two back by today's rival Ruffolo (at 7/1) is not a good sign for his chances.
Ruffolo He's probably going to be the front runner that Stanford tracks to the far turn. To his credit after beating Hereditary in a 2nd level allowance he came right back to win a third level allowance. Might be a factor that in the three wins showing on the page they were all over tracks that were wet.
Adirondack King This time last year he was working on a five race losing streak, but he surprised handicappers and won THIS RACE at nearly 12/1. So we know he likes the track, but this is a far stronger field than last year's Challenger Stakes.
Idolo Porteno After spending the first part of his career in Argentina he made his North American debut in the Grade 3 Razorback and was a sharp third. Toss the turf try next; In his last he was in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and was a best-of-the-rest second behind Grade 1 winner Noble Bird. Not been seen since that May effort. The barn is only 3-for-32 and is only 1-for-14 with long layoff runners. If you're playing place and show he might give you some value, but I'm not sure he's your winner.
Ami's Flatter If you want the most logical alternative to the favorite and at a fair price, here's your guy. He was a good second behind Todd Pletcher's Grade 1 winner Carpe Diem in the 2015 Tampa Bay Derby. Had a break-out triple digit win as a four year-old last winter and followed that up two races later with another triple digit figure winning Keeneland's Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes. BUT.....both those big wins came sprinting seven furlongs. The main concern is since that 2nd in the Tampa Derby he's only gone two turns three times and was beaten a combined 37 lengths. Not been that far since July of 2015. Second off the shelf after an even 4th in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream, he just missed third. Note that the runner-up in that race came back to be MUCH the best in a graded event at Gulfstream last weekend.
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