Relentless Strike This colt began his career with two runs in maiden claiming company, and in an entry-level allowance like this, that's a major strike against him fitting here. His last, at this level produced a fourth place finish. But before you get too excited, there were only six runners and he was beaten nearly twenty lengths. He'd be a stretch.
The Cookie Man He has to be a most pleasant surprise to his connections. His debut at Keeneland in a moderate $30K maiden event produced a dismal (9th, beaten sixteen plus lengths) result. Came to Tampa and dropped to a lowly $16K spot where he won. Then, unlike most thoroughbreds, he beat winners in his very next start. But again, that was a modest $25K claiming event. Last out the connections moved him into this allowance condition and he won by daylight. His three wins top this field and he has to be at least considered.
Egyptian Hero A subtle hint to the outcome of THIS race could come from the result of the third race where Blue Sky Kowboy runs - he was fourth behind Egyptian Hero when this colt was an impressive winner here as the odds-on choice. Working against that one is that he won here at Tampa and not at Gulfstream where the "A" list runners for Todd Pletcher run each winter; also, today he tries winners for the first time; and finally, he'll probably have to sit off a pace-setter and finish today instead of going wire to wire as he did last out. Working in his favor is the fact that he was purchased out of the Fasig-Tipton sales for a cool million dollars so SOMEONE thinks he's got ability; and of course he's from the Todd Pletcher barn with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez aboard.
Chasing The Stars Ten tries, all for maiden claiming mid-level prices, before finally breaking his maiden last time out. Hardly a legitimate win contender.
Inkspired This colt is probably very close to the top ones in ability and is not an out of the question contender. He won at first asking at Gulfstream - but last summer when the competition isn't as strong. He's been third twice at this level, but again, against the fall runners at GP. Working in his favor is today he makes his first start for local trainer Dale Bennett and he has not one but two very sharp works for today.
Alum On the plus, he's from Todd Pletcher's barn. But the positives end there. First strike is that he broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park West. Each winter when the winter runners show up the first wave run at GPW (formerly Calder). Year after year I've seen Todd Pletcher win here, but rarely do those runners show the same kind of ability at the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park. So, after a GPW score, Alum was a badly beaten 9th, nearly a dozen lengths back at GP in a race like this. He shipped here and the crowd was all over him, making him the 3/5 favorite on Festival Preview Day. But instead The Cookie Man beat him soundly. Just not as good as advertised I'm afraid.
Triumphant Joy That he was third in a stakes here in his second career start and first in So Fla is a plus. That he was a distant fifth behind BOTH Alum and The Cookie Man last time out would make him an unlikely win candidate here.
Cottle and Cookie Well, he won his debut last time out and that counts for something. And the runner-up came right back to win, so it was a quality race. However, he won at nearly 12/1 odds and the trainer has started THIRTY horses here at Tampa this winter with Cottle and Cookie being his ONLY winner. Not for me.
Marqueter Has lost back-to-back sprints for this $8K price in 2-lifetime company. The last by more than six lengths after a surprising second at 17/1. Unlikely.
Bohemian Soul Beaten nearly forty lengths in his last three starts would seem an unlikely win candidate.
D. Shifflett Seven of his last eight races have been with 2-lifetime restricted company, but all for a more expensive price until the most recent. At this level going six furlongs he just missed when third by 1/2 length. Significant (?) that he had to wait for running room until finally bursting free to near get the victory. The additional furlong should be a plus to his chances.
Rattlesden Had the clean trip in his last when finishing just in front of today's rival D. Shifflett. The 1-for-17 record is a real concern.
Seekingtheperfect Eight straight losses in restricted company and an overal resume with ONE win from 32 starts.....ouch, not for me.
Running on Guinnes One for nineteen and he's lost to a couple of these already. A good second going 6 1/2 furlongs at this distance might interest some.
Very Tricky The good news is he was a convincing winner three back. But otherwise the other last three races saw him finish a combined 95 lengths behind the winner. Oh my.
Discreet Investor Seven straight losses in 2-lifetime company without ever hitting the board. No.
Seventysevenwilow Mixed signals - been 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in six straight at this level. So is that a positive in a field full of runners who can't seem to get close, or a negative that he likes to be close without winning?
Indio Nativo Good news, he's only been out five times so he's not a "proven loser." Bad news, he comes off his maiden win in a cheap race and is trained by a guy that's 1-for-25 at the meet. Not for me.
Dealingatthegate Was a late-running third at this level going 6 1/2 furlongs, but is a mere 1-for-14. Maybe.
Bite The Gold JUST looking at the horse and his running lines he's a possibility as he was beaten just five lengths for a $16K 2-lifetime tag, now drops in to a weak $8K 2L spot. But the rider is 1-for-31 and the barn 0-for-14. I can't bet on that.
ALSO ELIGIBLE: Odachi If able to draw in, the fact that he has two seconds and two thirds, all in $30K 2-lifetime races at Gulfstream is a plus. BUT....all four of those were on the turf and came in the late summer, early fall of 2015!
Closing Bell I'd love to know his story.....after running very competitively as a 3yo and 4yo in all stakes and graded stakes for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott he was sent to Australia, g'day mate! Why? Didn't run very well in big money races there and now is back with Mott. Off the layoff, on the turf, is a proven angle with Mott and he gives top rider Joel Rosario a leg up. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Chongo Two wins since September 2015, both in photo finishes and against suspect company. He'd be a surprise to me.
Gallery Only been on the track four times in the last YEAR and has been beaten a combined fifty lengths. Would be a major surprise here.
Lewis Vale It's no secret what he's going to do - gun to the front. In his last EIGHT starts he was cruising on the lead when they reached the far turn......lasted to win only one (1) of those races. If you could bet "who's in front at the far turn" he'd be the "bet of the day" - but you have to pick who's in front at the finish line :)
Aquaphobia The newly turned four-year-old had sharp form with two wins and a second & third before trying a Grade 1. No dice. But that's the problem, he's not been seen since that July 4th try AND has to face older rivals for the first time today.
Rizwan The twelve races showing go back to September 2015....NONE of them show a winning effort. Probably a good bet to run 3rd or 4th, but unlikely to win.
Hammerstein Likes to run on the front end, so he'll be compromised by the likes of Lewis Vale. Add in that he's not been out since July 2nd so it's unlikely he lasts to the wire.
Patrioticandproud Third off the shelf is often a runner's best race, and that's the case here. But he's been 2nd or 3rd in 18 starts with only eight wins. Maybe, but not even close to providing a "big edge" as a winning proposition.
I Am So Jealous Lightly raced with room for improvement, but likes to be in front - so unlikely to be the winner.
Gold Shield Likely one of the post-time favorites. Gets Hall of Fame connections with trainer Shug McGaughey and rider John Velazquez. Only been on the turf five times and has been competitive in all of them. Might want more ground than today's 1 1/16th mile as he was a just-miss third going a mile and a quarter last time out. Seems like the main threat to the likely rail-drawn favorite.
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