Financial Freedom This 6yo is a good fit for the conditions of the race. You'll note in the above that this race is for ".....four year olds and upward which have not won two races since September 11....." Races like this tend to be won by runners who are lightly raced since the date in the conditions. Financial Freedom has only been out three times in 2017 and once in December. He'd never raced for the $5K price tag until two back when beaten by a neck as the 4/5 favorite ($0.80 return on the dollar). It's significant in this race that the winner that day was China Prince. But in his most recent he won at the $5K level in wire to wire fashion. He was claimed by a new trainer and so he gets a new rider today as he moves from a non-winners of 1Y to this nw2Y condition.
Ten Guitars Unless you are a guitar fan it's is a really bad idea to invest on this one. He's run in this non-winners 2Y for $5K in four straight races, beaten some combined 17 lengths (to be fair he was 2nd beaten a nose at 17/1 two back) - but what is a REAL drawback is that his trainer is 0-for-28 this winter and the rider is 0-for-26. OUCH. And note that in his last he was beaten by China Prince by seven plus lengths.
I Cat Bad news - was 0-for-13 in 2016! Good news, he won two starts back in a nw1Y race here. More bad news, was beaten eight lengths by China Prince in his last start. Expect him to be on or near the leaders early before fading.
Brevard He's not run a speed figure that would be in the same zip code as the top one since last August. Faced China Prince last time out and was beaten more than 13 lengths! Interesting that Ten Guitars finished well in front of him and was double digit odds while he was relatively well played at 6/1.
To The Stars This one was in the same race as Financial Freedom and China Prince and while the top two were separated by a neck in a photo finish, he was over a dozen lengths back. He came back to face Financial Freedom in his two-back race and to his credit he was second, but was not a threat when about three off the winner. Then he exited that race to win the nw1Y condition last time out. That win came last Saturday and it's unlikely he comes back with the same kind of effort on such short rest.
My Prince When China Prince came back to win after defeating Financial Freedom, it was My Prince who was second, beaten four lengths (FFreedom was beaten a neck by 'China remember). You'd have to go back to July 2015 to find a speed figure earned by 'Prince that is as good as any of the last FIVE run by 'Freedom.
Pio's Poison This guy was 35/1 in his most recent when beaten more than ten lengths by To The Stars (who lost to China Prince). Has a 2-for-54 jockey today.
Tempietto If you're trying to beat the likely favorite (Financial Freedom) this is an interesting proposition. In a race where several of the runners have all faced each other before it's often a winning angle to find the "new shooter" in the field. That would be this guy. His first two tries at Tampa were dismal, but he was facing $6.25K runners in OPEN races (without a "last win since...." condition). Last time out he was dropped into a race like this (nw2Y) for a $5K price and was a sharp third. Could step up today and be the price play to threaten the favorite.
Better Man You could do worse than this one for a price play. On the upside he was third behind China Prince and My Prince. And he was 4th beaten a length by Ten Guitars and My Prince. I won't bet him with a 1-for-48 rider, and I also don't like that last time out he was in a 7 furlong sprint and this barn is 0-for-14 with horses going from a sprint to a two-turn race like this.
Royal Jewely At first glance it would appear that this 5-year-old mare is a toss out as she moves from the longer, slower-paced two-turn races on dirt and turf to a much faster paced sprint going just over 3/4 of a mile. But, when going a mile or so she's up close to the pace so you have to believe she'll be within range of the front runners and she'll have a solid closing kick. It's a classic turn-back move to go from a two-turn turf route to a sprint at 6 1/2 or 7 furlongs like this. And I LOVE the best-of-37 workout the other morning (termed a bullet work). Sharp barn, sharp jockey - winning at nearly 30% together. And interestingly her speed figures are faster than the favorite on several occasions. A lot to like.
Unseen Angels This lightly raced 4-year-old filly had previously made all nine career starts at Woodbine in Toronto where they have a synthetic surface. When trying the "real dirt" for the first time on New Year's Day she was absolutely buried by two of today's rivals. Could turn it around for a 29% winning barn, but I would be skeptical about betting her to win.
Spanish Concert She's very likely going to be the favorite, and probably a very short priced favorite. And why not - she's clearly the quickest of these to the front and when the field hits the far turn she WILL be in front. Have to like that she's won three of her last four, and the most recent was a stakes race. Today is a drop in class for her. Come and catch her. But if you're looking for chinks in the armor, consider that any time she's run beyond six furlongs (and today is 6 1/2 furlongs) she nearly always tires late in the stretch. EVEN when she all alone on an easy lead. But before you toss her completely consider this - last spring she ran here at 6 1/2 furlongs and was second in an allowance event. She stepped UP to a Handicap race identical to this at this same 6 1/2 furlongs and went wire-to-wire over today's rival, My Mertie - WHO HAD BEAT HER IN THAT PREVIOUS 6 1/2 FURLONG RACE. And she was 19/1 when she won! Tough call.
Pink Mama This gal is probably the key to the race. Not because she's a likely win candidate but because she has sharp early speed. She steps up in class today and is unlikely to outsprint the favorite and/or to last to the wire. But she will make the favorite run fast early and since that one is already susceptible to tiring, I think Pink Mama all but guarantees that will happen.
My Mertie In her last seven starts she's been beaten by Spanish Concert four times - didn't face her in the other three! But before you are sure she can't win, consider that she DID beat Spanish Concert here last spring. And beat her SOUNDLY as the 3/2 favorite on that afternoon. A threat if she can run back to her 2016 best efforts.
Open Arms This four-year-old daughter of Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver is lightly raced with only six career starts. Impressive that she won her debut, which is not a typical thing for thoroughbreds to do. And very strongly at Keeneland last fall when winning again - Keeneland in the fall is a M-U-C-H tougher place to race and win than Tampa in the winter. In her most recent start she was sent off as the 1-2 favorite (would have paid $3 for a $2 bet) and she stalked the leader into the stretch. But that race was her first start since November a break of over three months, and she gave way. But to her credit she was clearly second best and was over three lengths clear of the third place finisher. If she can take a step forward today with one under her belt, she's a big win threat. It has to be mentioned that she's got a "big time" jockey in Julian Leparoux - while the others in here all have local riders. But, Leparoux nearly ALWAYS rides less than good when I bet him. I don't know how he knows when I bet him, but I'm nearly certain he does know :)
Little Cherie So she did beat Spanish Concert three back at odds of 11/1, but she's been third to that one in two other recent races. Not a fan that her trainer is a mere 2-for-41 this winter.
Stormy Dan Man Seriously - who would bet on this one? In his first four starts he was beaten a combined 113 lengths, then last time out when nearly 40 lengths behind he stopped and was walked off the track. No.
Blue Sky Kowboy He fought with the gate crew to load in his debut last time out and in spite of that he was 4th of ten runners. Even more respectable when you note the winner was a colt named Egyptian Hero, who was MUCH the best that afternoon....that's significant because I BET Egyptian Hero and he was a Todd Pletcher maiden who was EASILY the winner that day. This one is better than he looks.
Exclusive Package This guy was 2nd in his debut and then last time out was third in a Gulfstream maiden event (stronger than what you find here) despite coming off a long layoff. His second start....his connections put him in a STAKES race, on the turf, where he was a respectable fourth. That last out third at Gulfstream can be given even more consideration when noting that the winner was six plus clear of the second place horse, who was nearly four clear of 'Package and he was over three clear of the other ELEVEN runners. It's also very interesting that he ran at Gulfstream last time out as he's based here at Tampa, so the return here not only is against lighter company but is on his "home track" - seriously contender.
Tizk Tizk After back-to-back fourth place finishes he dropped in for a $50K tag two back and was the prohibitive favorite. Only second best. Back into maiden special company last time out, and second again. Gives the impression of a colt that just likes to be around the winner while letting someone else win.
Road Guard Post The outside four runners all begin their career today. This one comes from a barn that wins at 38% with debut runners - that's strong. But it's only a sample of eight races. Oh.
Betting On Red He has the least impressive morning workouts of the first time starters but comes from a barn that's 24% with first time maidens and a good rider. Can't dismiss him.
Mr. Dewey Has some very fast morning workouts but the barn is 3-for-32 this winter and only 2-for-14 with first time starters. I'm hesitant to make him the top one.
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