2:24 Race 3: The New Orleans Ladies Overnight - 8 1/2 furlongs TURF
The first of the stakes would appear to go through trainer Brad Cox's 6-Cash Control (5/2) who is a multiple Grade 3 winner. But it's worth noting that she was 2nd in this event last spring as the even money favorite and comes in here off a no excuse 4th as the 7/5 in a stakes race here. Her inconsistency might call for an investment elsewhere. 8-Selenite (8/1) might be a good price play as the uncoupled entry to the top one but luring the top rider in Geroux. Worrisome that she's not won since 2015 but she's one of only two others that have EVER earned Beyer speed figures that would beat the top one. The other is 4-Prado's Sweet Ride (4/1) who actually finished 2nd, beaten a nose in her last when today's favorite was 4th at 7/5 odds. Hard to think she's a legitimate threat when she was 3rd behind the top one at 30/1 and was 9/1 when beating her; then last out off the improved effort she was still ignored at 10/1 in a five horse field and ran to her odds finishing a well beaten fourth.
The Field:
1-Factory of Faith comes in off of back to back 2nd place finishes in 2nd level allowance races with paired Beyer figures that could signal a move forward today. 2-Princess of Erindelle has been distanced in three stakes, beat Factory of Faith two back (note it was an off-the-turf event). 3-Emerald Pond ships in from back-to-back graded stakes at Tampa. Was 200/1 when 9th in her last. 4-Prado's Sweet Ride was a sharp 3rd in a stakes here, then missed by a nose two back in another stakes. But was an even fourth running in the Daisy Divine here last out. A return to the previous two would make her a threat. In the photo finish 2nd she beat today's favorite, but in that third she was soundly beaten by today's favorite. 5-Susie Bee was a good fourth in this event last year and comes off a photo finish loss in a similar stakes at Sam Houston in her last. 6-Cash Control the obvious favorite. If she runs her "A" race she scores today, but last time out she was the beaten 7/5 favorite behind Prado's Sweet Ride. The likely winner, but not a slam dunk. 7-Dynazar has not won since beating allowance foes in September and has been beaten by the principals here more than once. 8-Selenite was completely outrun by several of these earlier in the winter, and is the "other" Brad Cox entry. Interesting he sends out the favorite, but top national rider Florent Geroux is on this one. 9-Silent Robin was on the lead before fading behind today's favorite when they met last year.
2:51 Race 4: The Crescent City Oaks - (3yo) 1m/70
4-Mr. Al's Gal (5/2) looks to leave the gate as a short-priced favorite to earn her fifth win in just six starts. Has beaten most of these by daylight previously. She is the ONLY filly in the field who's beaten open winners; she is the only stakes winner (a THREE-TIME stakes winner); and she has won here before. The one fact that gives us cause for pause is that TODAY she comes off a layoff and the only other time she did that was her lone loss! Hmmm. 12-Rose Guitar (12/1) is the ONLY one in here who's not raced against the other fillies. Might be enough of an advantage. Her daddy, Star Guitar OWNED the Fair Grounds state-bred stakes for years. Look for her to outrun her odds. 2-What's The Point (6/1) the only filly based locally and judging by her Tomlinson figures she should love the added distance today.
The Field:
1-Shashim Blaster has been beaten, soundly, by SIX of today's fellow fillies. 2-What's The Point has never gone beyond six furlongs and her most recent, a loss in a 3-lifetime allowance was the first time she was NOT racing for a tag. 3-Moonlightnmidnight stretched out to a mile and wired the field earning a career best figure three back. Has since been soundly beaten, including a double-digit loss to three of today's rivals. 4-Mr. Al's Gal has won four of five starts including a state-bred stakes like this over this track. She's got two turn experience and races on or near the lead without being a "need to lead" filly. Note that win was the barn's lone victory in New Orleans (1-for-11). 5-D'Wild Muffin was flying late to just miss to the top one in a five furlong maiden event; never been two turns but might like the longer distance today. Upset potential. 6-Our Millie actually beat the favorite early on but has been second twice to her since. Steps up off a 3L win here as the 3/5 favorite. 7-Madame Beague has been beaten a combined 30+ lengths in her last four starts. 8-My Gal Layla has been third behind 'Al and 'Millie at odds of 16/1 and 28/1 in her last two. Never raced at the Fair Grounds, could that turn the trick? 9-EZ's All Attitude missed in back-to-back 2-lifetime tries before finally getting the win in that kind of race last out. 10-Bermuda Star has improved with each start and was thought enough of to race in stakes as a maiden; comes off maiden victory, albeit on the turf. 11-Naughty Little Nun has lost to FOUR of today's rivals previously. 12-Rose Guitar comes off an authoritative maiden win.
The Field:
1-Shashim Blaster has been beaten, soundly, by SIX of today's fellow fillies. 2-What's The Point has never gone beyond six furlongs and her most recent, a loss in a 3-lifetime allowance was the first time she was NOT racing for a tag. 3-Moonlightnmidnight stretched out to a mile and wired the field earning a career best figure three back. Has since been soundly beaten, including a double-digit loss to three of today's rivals. 4-Mr. Al's Gal has won four of five starts including a state-bred stakes like this over this track. She's got two turn experience and races on or near the lead without being a "need to lead" filly. Note that win was the barn's lone victory in New Orleans (1-for-11). 5-D'Wild Muffin was flying late to just miss to the top one in a five furlong maiden event; never been two turns but might like the longer distance today. Upset potential. 6-Our Millie actually beat the favorite early on but has been second twice to her since. Steps up off a 3L win here as the 3/5 favorite. 7-Madame Beague has been beaten a combined 30+ lengths in her last four starts. 8-My Gal Layla has been third behind 'Al and 'Millie at odds of 16/1 and 28/1 in her last two. Never raced at the Fair Grounds, could that turn the trick? 9-EZ's All Attitude missed in back-to-back 2-lifetime tries before finally getting the win in that kind of race last out. 10-Bermuda Star has improved with each start and was thought enough of to race in stakes as a maiden; comes off maiden victory, albeit on the turf. 11-Naughty Little Nun has lost to FOUR of today's rivals previously. 12-Rose Guitar comes off an authoritative maiden win.
3:45 Race 6: The Crescent City Derby - (3yo) 8 1/2 furlongs
An interesting 3yo stakes with a full field. 10-Tip Tap Tapizar (5/1) has legitimate reasons to "open the handicapping window" all the way back to his last win last summer. He was a legitimate 2yo colt with promise after winning at first asking. Then was third in a Gr 3 behind Classic Empire who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Was third in a Gr 2 behind Gunnever who last out won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and is a favorite for today's Florida Derby. Then he won Monmouth's Sapling Stakes at a mile distance. Off a layoff in a Gr 3 and then in the mud in a Gr 3 can be scratched out. His last was an even fourth behind the top two program choices. Might surprise. We'll find out how good 13-Underpressure (3/1) is today as he's clearly the most talented, but must break from somewhere in the New Orleans parking lot. The fact that he comes from off the pace and that is the prevalent winning running style here both play into his favor. He has improved with each and every start and is bred for more distance being out of Birdstone. Should relish the return to state-bred rivals today. If I'm jockey Fernando Torres I'm taking 1-Jack's Snipe (9/2) right to the front from the rail draw and playing catch me if you can as there does not appear to be a legitimate front runner in the field. Might get brave if left alone too long.
The Field:
1-Jack's Snipe has run in four consecutive state-bred stakes like this with a win, two thirds and a fourth. Note in the last, when fourth behind two of today's rivals he was a 12/1 outsider. 2-Set Hut was drilled by Jack's Snipe three back and has lost in back-to-back allowance tries, including a 2-lifetime event last out. 3-Paddy O'Lionel was not in the same zip code the only time in a stakes and comes off back-to-back losses in conditioned company. 4-Ida's Warrior broke his maiden on the turf two back before being beaten by Set Hut last out. 5-Magic Vow had his three race win streak snapped with back-to-back second place finishes behind two of today's rivals in his most recent. His off the pace running style might be better suited to the Fair Grounds today. 6-Amp'd Up had back to back 2nd place finishes on the dirt set up his last out maiden breaker on the grass. 7-Big Maurice has been beaten soundly by FOUR of today's Derby rivals. 8-Freakonthelead did just that, "freaking out" two back to beat today's likely favorite at odds of 70/1; but was beaten by that one in the rematch last time out by over twenty lengths at 30/1 odds. 9-Imindycatbirdseat was a double digit loser to Jack Snipe's show finish in his only stakes try. 10-Tip Tap Tapizar ran in open stakes after winning Monmouth's Sapling as a 2yo; but was not a factor. Dropped into a state-bred stakes last out and was only fourth behind the top two in here. 11-True Emporer won at first asking and was a good third in a sprint vs. 2-lifetime allowance runners last out. Never been a distance of ground. 12-Rollwithit still a maiden. 13-Underpressure has won three of four state-bred events including a stakes event. Was a sharp 4th beaten 3 1/2 vs OPEN allowance runners last out. The parking lot post position does him no favors but at least he's a come from behind runner so it won't be a total compromise. 14-Evan Lee G has a single win, in a $20K maiden sprint.
The Field:
1-Jack's Snipe has run in four consecutive state-bred stakes like this with a win, two thirds and a fourth. Note in the last, when fourth behind two of today's rivals he was a 12/1 outsider. 2-Set Hut was drilled by Jack's Snipe three back and has lost in back-to-back allowance tries, including a 2-lifetime event last out. 3-Paddy O'Lionel was not in the same zip code the only time in a stakes and comes off back-to-back losses in conditioned company. 4-Ida's Warrior broke his maiden on the turf two back before being beaten by Set Hut last out. 5-Magic Vow had his three race win streak snapped with back-to-back second place finishes behind two of today's rivals in his most recent. His off the pace running style might be better suited to the Fair Grounds today. 6-Amp'd Up had back to back 2nd place finishes on the dirt set up his last out maiden breaker on the grass. 7-Big Maurice has been beaten soundly by FOUR of today's Derby rivals. 8-Freakonthelead did just that, "freaking out" two back to beat today's likely favorite at odds of 70/1; but was beaten by that one in the rematch last time out by over twenty lengths at 30/1 odds. 9-Imindycatbirdseat was a double digit loser to Jack Snipe's show finish in his only stakes try. 10-Tip Tap Tapizar ran in open stakes after winning Monmouth's Sapling as a 2yo; but was not a factor. Dropped into a state-bred stakes last out and was only fourth behind the top two in here. 11-True Emporer won at first asking and was a good third in a sprint vs. 2-lifetime allowance runners last out. Never been a distance of ground. 12-Rollwithit still a maiden. 13-Underpressure has won three of four state-bred events including a stakes event. Was a sharp 4th beaten 3 1/2 vs OPEN allowance runners last out. The parking lot post position does him no favors but at least he's a come from behind runner so it won't be a total compromise. 14-Evan Lee G has a single win, in a $20K maiden sprint.
4:39 Race 8: Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap - 9f
While there appear to be at least two others that like to run on or near the lead, no one appears fast enough to keep 9-Noble Bird (5/2) occupied meaning he'll be loose on the lead despite the outside draw today. He exits the KEY Grade 1 $12 Million Pegasus World Cup where he led to the far turn before being no match for the world's most amazing thoroughbred, Arrogate. 'Bird is also the most accomplished at this nine furlong distance with three victories. Look for Florent Geroux to set sail on the lead and never look back. 1-Breaking Lucky (4/1) is on an "up-and-down" cycle and today should be an "up" which would make him very dangerous at a big price while rallying from mid-pack. 3-International Star (6/1) JUST missed in the prep for this, the Gr 3 Mineshaft after getting rolling too late while flying up the rail. Interesting that Tyler Gafflione flies in from So Fla and gets the mount today for the first time on this "Horse-for-the-Course."
The Field:
1-Breaking Lucky is tough to figure....two of his last four he has been badly distanced, but in the other two he was second best in the Gr 1 Clark behind Gunrunner, who was just 2nd in the $10 Million Gr 1 Dubai World Cup and second best in the Gr 1 Woodward behind Shaman's Ghost who won the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap two weeks ago. On his best day he's a legitimate threat, at a good price. 2-Iron Fist has been competitive with some good handicap runners but would appear to have to improve significantly to improve today. 3-International Star was FLYING up the rail to just miss in the Gr 3 Mineshaft (as my top pick at 9/1!) last time out. Loves this course (9/4-2-0) and has to be considered in the mix. 4-Honorable Duty is lightly raced with wins in five of his last seven, including back-to-back scores HERE, the most recent a Grade 3 win in the Mineshaft. 5-Aglimpseofgabby lost by 35 lengths in his only dirt try but has run well on the grass - this race is on the dirt....go figure. 6-Hawaakom won the Fair Grounds Handicap here in January and then was a best-of-the-rest 2nd behind Gunrunner in Arkansas before he ran 2nd Saturday in the Dubai World Cup. 7-Roman Approval has not been on the dirt since December 2015 and has SIXTEEN runner up finishes. 8-Mo Tom was on the Derby Trail this time last year suffering through brutal trips. Won the Ohio Derby to vindicate his ability, but was nowhere to be found in the Gr 3 Mineshaft. 9-Noble Bird will be a wire-to-wire threat as a multiple graded stakes winner. The outside draw and his inconsistent running are issues. But he exits the Gr 1 $12 Million Pegasus World Cup where he led to the far turn before giving way. The winner, Arrogate came back in the most amazing race I've ever seen to win the Gr 1 Dubai World Cup and confirm his status as the best thoroughbred in the world; the runner-up came back to win the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap; and the show runner came back to run third in the Dubai World Cup. 10-Eagle won the Tenacious Handicap to kick off the 2015-6 season here and then disappointed in three straight handicaps. One win since in Keeneland's Gr 3 Ben Ali makes him hard to trust, but note that win came over Noble Bird and Breaking Lucky!
The Field:
1-Breaking Lucky is tough to figure....two of his last four he has been badly distanced, but in the other two he was second best in the Gr 1 Clark behind Gunrunner, who was just 2nd in the $10 Million Gr 1 Dubai World Cup and second best in the Gr 1 Woodward behind Shaman's Ghost who won the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap two weeks ago. On his best day he's a legitimate threat, at a good price. 2-Iron Fist has been competitive with some good handicap runners but would appear to have to improve significantly to improve today. 3-International Star was FLYING up the rail to just miss in the Gr 3 Mineshaft (as my top pick at 9/1!) last time out. Loves this course (9/4-2-0) and has to be considered in the mix. 4-Honorable Duty is lightly raced with wins in five of his last seven, including back-to-back scores HERE, the most recent a Grade 3 win in the Mineshaft. 5-Aglimpseofgabby lost by 35 lengths in his only dirt try but has run well on the grass - this race is on the dirt....go figure. 6-Hawaakom won the Fair Grounds Handicap here in January and then was a best-of-the-rest 2nd behind Gunrunner in Arkansas before he ran 2nd Saturday in the Dubai World Cup. 7-Roman Approval has not been on the dirt since December 2015 and has SIXTEEN runner up finishes. 8-Mo Tom was on the Derby Trail this time last year suffering through brutal trips. Won the Ohio Derby to vindicate his ability, but was nowhere to be found in the Gr 3 Mineshaft. 9-Noble Bird will be a wire-to-wire threat as a multiple graded stakes winner. The outside draw and his inconsistent running are issues. But he exits the Gr 1 $12 Million Pegasus World Cup where he led to the far turn before giving way. The winner, Arrogate came back in the most amazing race I've ever seen to win the Gr 1 Dubai World Cup and confirm his status as the best thoroughbred in the world; the runner-up came back to win the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap; and the show runner came back to run third in the Dubai World Cup. 10-Eagle won the Tenacious Handicap to kick off the 2015-6 season here and then disappointed in three straight handicaps. One win since in Keeneland's Gr 3 Ben Ali makes him hard to trust, but note that win came over Noble Bird and Breaking Lucky!
5:06 Race 9: Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Handicap - 9f TURF
If 8-Kasaqui (5/2) runs what is his typical race he's the clear-cut winner today. Not been seen since a just-miss try in Tampa in January, but he's seen nothing but graded company for over a year. Considering the big events at Tampa since his last and that he's based there, you have to believe this race was circled on the calendar and he's well meant today. Probably the "best bet" is to play 1-Enterprising (9/2) across the board. He's ultra-consistent, but I don't think he's good enough to win here. If 5-One Mean Man (20/1) is even half his DRF odds he's a good gamble at that price.
The Field:
1-Enterprising has never been worse than third and never more than three behind the winner since leaving New York last July. He was the winner of the Gr 3 Fair Grounds Handicap last out, the prep for this and has Gulfstream regular Tyler Gafflione on board. 2-Blarp won an allowance in November, but that's been his only victory since the fall of 2015. 3-Sky Flight has shown flashes of talent, such as winning the Tropical Park Derby as a 3yo. The connections must have seen something to put down $62K to claim him two back. Interesting he set the pace in the Dibartolo Handicap here in December because he is NOT a front runner by nature. 4-Roman Approval is cross-entered in the Grade 2 New Orleans the race prior, but he is a turf runner; look for him to show up here, but he won't be a legitimate win contender here either. 5-One Mean Man fits on his best - hard to have a lot of confidence when noting his last three turf wins were by a head, a nose, and a half length. 6-Granny's Kitten just missed in the Dibartolo, was just up in a photo to win the Gr 3 Colonel Bradley and then lost all chance when bobbled at the break in the Gr 3 Fair Grounds. Would not be a surprise on his best. 7-Pumpkin Rumble won an allowance here in December 2015 but has gone winless since. 8-Kasaqui won the Gr 3 Arlington Handicap last summer and just missed when starting his rally too late in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay in February (as my pick!). Four of his last five starts have earned triple digit figures stamping him as the one to beat - the non 100 was a 98 in the Gr 3 Arlngton victory. 9-Oscar Nominated led to deep stretch before giving way to Enterprising last time out. I think he's overrated. 10-Special Ops has won back-to-back allowance events and tries a graded stakes for the first time today.
The Field:
1-Enterprising has never been worse than third and never more than three behind the winner since leaving New York last July. He was the winner of the Gr 3 Fair Grounds Handicap last out, the prep for this and has Gulfstream regular Tyler Gafflione on board. 2-Blarp won an allowance in November, but that's been his only victory since the fall of 2015. 3-Sky Flight has shown flashes of talent, such as winning the Tropical Park Derby as a 3yo. The connections must have seen something to put down $62K to claim him two back. Interesting he set the pace in the Dibartolo Handicap here in December because he is NOT a front runner by nature. 4-Roman Approval is cross-entered in the Grade 2 New Orleans the race prior, but he is a turf runner; look for him to show up here, but he won't be a legitimate win contender here either. 5-One Mean Man fits on his best - hard to have a lot of confidence when noting his last three turf wins were by a head, a nose, and a half length. 6-Granny's Kitten just missed in the Dibartolo, was just up in a photo to win the Gr 3 Colonel Bradley and then lost all chance when bobbled at the break in the Gr 3 Fair Grounds. Would not be a surprise on his best. 7-Pumpkin Rumble won an allowance here in December 2015 but has gone winless since. 8-Kasaqui won the Gr 3 Arlington Handicap last summer and just missed when starting his rally too late in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay in February (as my pick!). Four of his last five starts have earned triple digit figures stamping him as the one to beat - the non 100 was a 98 in the Gr 3 Arlngton victory. 9-Oscar Nominated led to deep stretch before giving way to Enterprising last time out. I think he's overrated. 10-Special Ops has won back-to-back allowance events and tries a graded stakes for the first time today.
5:41 Race 10: Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks - (3yo) 8 1/2 f
It would look on paper like the program favorite, 6-Farrell (7/2) will be odds on at post time and a very likely winner in the winter feature for three-year-old fillies here at the historic Fair Grounds. She's swept through both of the local preps after scoring decisively in the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs to conclude her two-year-old campaign. The good news is she should stamp her ticket to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks as the best filly east of the Rocky Mountains (the Gulfstream Oaks does not appear to have anyone who is of this caliber) - the bad news is that she will undoubtedly run into So Cal's superstar filly, Unique Bella who I think is the best three-year-old of EITHER sex on the first Friday in May. If you're concerned about the ordinary Beyer figures then the best chance for an upset may come from 7-Summer Luck (9/2) who comes off a close third in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream or 5-Vexatious (8/1) who ships in from So Cal. 1-Majestic Quality (5/1) will undoubtedly improve after a good second to the favorite in her first try vs. winners, but can she make up all those lengths, especially considering that Farrell wasn't being pushed late by the rider.
The Field:
1-Majestic Quality gets high marks for running second in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra in her first start vs. winners last time out, out-finishing BC Juvenile Filly runner-up Valadorna for the place money. The problem is she was no threat to the winner who's back in here. 2-Daria's Angel wired a field of MSW 3yo fillies while being wrapped up late, earning a figure big enough to enter the conversation here. 3-Wicked Lick broke her maiden on the turf and really hasn't been a threat on dirt, outfinished twice by the favorite today. 4-Corporate Queen broke her maiden for Mark Casse at first asking and then was second best behind a Pletcher odds-on filly at Gulfstream off the shelf while giving that one all she could handle to mid-stretch. Might be this good. 5-Vexatious ships in from So Cal after running third in allowance company. Neil Drysdale a normally very conservative conditioner would not be here to "see what he's got. 6-Farrell will be a short priced favorite based on four wins from six starts and back-to-back authoritative victories here in the filly series. My problem is that her numbers are NOT extraordinary. But who steps up to take her on today? 7-Summer Luck is the second Mark Casse in the field. Comes off a very close third in the Gr 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream, so the fact she shows up here to take on the highly regarded Farrell instead of staying home to run in the Gulfstream Oaks is interesting. Patrick Husbands slated to fly to New Orleans from Toronto to take the mount. Hmmmm. 8-Queen Bernardina has been beaten by nearly 25 lengths in her last two, but does change hands to move into the Brett Calhoun barn.
The Field:
1-Majestic Quality gets high marks for running second in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra in her first start vs. winners last time out, out-finishing BC Juvenile Filly runner-up Valadorna for the place money. The problem is she was no threat to the winner who's back in here. 2-Daria's Angel wired a field of MSW 3yo fillies while being wrapped up late, earning a figure big enough to enter the conversation here. 3-Wicked Lick broke her maiden on the turf and really hasn't been a threat on dirt, outfinished twice by the favorite today. 4-Corporate Queen broke her maiden for Mark Casse at first asking and then was second best behind a Pletcher odds-on filly at Gulfstream off the shelf while giving that one all she could handle to mid-stretch. Might be this good. 5-Vexatious ships in from So Cal after running third in allowance company. Neil Drysdale a normally very conservative conditioner would not be here to "see what he's got. 6-Farrell will be a short priced favorite based on four wins from six starts and back-to-back authoritative victories here in the filly series. My problem is that her numbers are NOT extraordinary. But who steps up to take her on today? 7-Summer Luck is the second Mark Casse in the field. Comes off a very close third in the Gr 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream, so the fact she shows up here to take on the highly regarded Farrell instead of staying home to run in the Gulfstream Oaks is interesting. Patrick Husbands slated to fly to New Orleans from Toronto to take the mount. Hmmmm. 8-Queen Bernardina has been beaten by nearly 25 lengths in her last two, but does change hands to move into the Brett Calhoun barn.
6:21 - Race 10
Grade 2 $1 Million Louisiana Derby (3yo)
9 furlongs
Race analysis follows the individual comments.....
Patch Todd Pletcher sophomore debuted in Gulfstream sprint without speed. Found himself TENTH into the far turn before FLYING home to be 2nd. Stretched to a one-turn mile last time out he responded with a sharp victory. 
Hollywood Handsome Took five tries for this colt to finally break through, then was third in a two-turn, entry-level allowance last time. Triple Crown nominated, but has yet to put up a strong number.
Local Hero Debuted with two sprint tries in late fall when second in both. First try this winter was a two-turn MSW event here at the Fair Grounds where he responded with a highly rated victory, earning an 89 Beyer when scoring as the even money favorite. Right off that maiden win he was sent to the Grade 2 Risen Star and was a long time leader before faltering late to be a narrowly beaten third while nearly duplicating the big maiden figure, earning an 87 in defeat.
Senior Investment Has crossed the line first in three straight Fair Ground route races. Broke his maiden in style then took down an entry level allowance, but the stewards DQ'd him. Right back in a softer 2-lifetime allowance last time out he won with authority. Steps into a stakes for the first time with moderate speed figures for a 3-for-39 barn.
Monaco The second Pletcher colt in the field - this one owned by top NY owner Michael Repole. On the pace until the stretch in his Spa debut before fading. Came back with a just-miss second at Gulfstream, then graduated by a dozen widening lengths at Tampa as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite. The $1.3 Million sales grad carries high expectations but will need to improve by nearly twenty lengths on the speed figure scale to make a dent here today.
Guest Suite In his first try going a route of ground at Keeneland last fall - his second career start - he scored decisively. Came back in the Street Sense at Churchill and was a good third behind the unbeaten McCracken who's atop the Derby standings presently. Right back to score by nearly a dozen in allowance company at CD to conclude his juvenile season. Won the Gr 3 LaComte here, the first step on the Derby Trail to kick off his 3yo campaign. While he comes from off the pace he found himself inexplicably ten lengths back early in the Gr 2 Risen Star. A strong middle move then evenly to the wire to finish fourth. Back-to-back bullet works would indicate he's ready to roll today. Must avoid falling so far out of it today.
Sorry Erick Must have made some impression on the connections as he was claimed out of a Santa Anita $20K claiming event, then won an entry level allowance. Off that he was sent here to try the Gr 2 Risen Star where he was in another county at the finish, yet is back today. Would be a huge surprise.
Girvin Won his dirt sprint debut here in December then was a close second to at the time unbeaten Cowboy Culture in the McGee Memorial going a mile on the turf. The connections decided to try the dirt in the Gr 2 Risen Star and were rewarded when he finished with a strong closing kick to win going away and earn a field-best last race Beyer of 93 (his first two earned identical 87 figs). He now is considered one of the leading Kentucky Derby candidates and will be the likely favorite this afternoon.
Hotfoot Was beaten in a 2-lifetime event two back, on the turf. Hardly.
The question for handicappers is which of the these lightly raced, improving three year-olds will take the next big step forward this afternoon. I will be the first to admit that I was initially unimpressed when 8-Girvin (3/1) produced in the Grade 2 Risen Star and was even more surprised to see him near the top of the next set of Kentucky Derby rankings. But it's hard to argue with the consistent nature of his Beyer figures. And with only three races under his belt he figures to have improvement in him still. He has worked well since that race and if he just runs the SAME race he'll probably win again today and move on to Kentucky as one of the betting choices on the first Saturday in May. The one that intrigues me most in here is 6-Guest Suite (4/1) who was compromised by the mysterious drop to the back tactic last time out. If he sits closer to the pace today, and based on his quick works, I think that's exactly what will happen, then he stands an excellent chance to move forward and be the one doing the best running late in the decisive ninth furlong. It's worrisome that trainer Neil Howard - who's proven over time to be a very good conditioner is a mere 1-for-31 in 2017 and only 2-for-39 here since the meet opened in November. Todd Pletcher's 1-Patch (6/1) earned a gigantic 89 speed figure in that last out win and if the top trainer in North America sends him here for a $1 Million Grade 2 event, then I'm inclined to think he just might be that good. A little disconcerting that the only Gulfstream rider willing to come along is So Fla summer leading rider Tyler Gafflione. He might be the surprise package, and based on the way One Liner shipped to Oaklawn to win the Gr 3 Southwest and then Malagacy shipped to Oaklawn to win the Gr 2 Rebel, maybe Pletcher truly is loaded with quality three-year-olds. 3-Local Hero (7/2) might have the most talent still untapped as that was a HUGE effort to come back off a big figure maiden win to run so well in a Grade 2 event. If able to ratchet down his early speed and set a more controlled pace today he could easily be long gone. Has worked sharply since the fading effort in the Risen Star, but I'm inclined to think he's still learning and will be headstrong again. That will make getting the full nine furlongs a big obstacle in his way this afternoon.
6:53 Race 12: The Costa Rising - 5 1/2f TURF
While his victories have been close shaves, 11-Jocamo's Song (3/1) has proven three times that he can find the finish line, especially against all his "old friends" that line up here today. No reason to think he won't be in front when the camera flashes today. Typically in an event filled with runners who've taken turns with each other I like the "new shooter." The only one to qualify as that today also tries the turf for the first time. 4-Icy Gentleman (50/1) is bred for turf and if able to transfer his dirt numbers will give the top one a run for his money. Looks to have company on the front end. It might simply be "track logic" that 1-Rock N Sake (9/2) gets "his turn" today after running second in three straight. Gets the better of the draw for sure.
The Field:
1-Rock N Sake has run second in three straight turf springs against two of today's rivals, never beaten more than 1 1/2 lengths ... maybe. 2-Brilliant Interest is the likely pace setter, did just that to wire a 2nd level allowance group two back, then set the table for THREE of today's rivals when fading to sixth last out. 3-Afro Blue wired his debut start on turf and was a solid third on dirt, but would need to improve double digits to contend. 4-Icy Gentleman is a multiple state-bred stakes winner, but has NEVER been over the inner course. If able to transfer form he'd be an interesting contender. 5-Just Kissing Buck has not been on the inner since last spring when BURIED by three of these, no. 6-Hail To The Nile will be running late, but has been beaten previously by four of today's rivals. 7-Eden's Gray Kitten has traded punches with several of these, winning one, but typically is close without winning to the better ones. 8-Jazzy Rebel was not even close in two tries vs. the favorites. 9-My Friend Flavin was 2nd beaten a neck to the top one then turned the tables in December....but note that was on the main going six furlongs The likely alternative to the chalk. 10-Nubin Ridge beaten by both the top ones, seems unlikely. 11-Jockamo's Song is three-for-four on the inner course at this distance and is the one who typically takes all these to the woodshed. His lone loss on the grass was in an OPEN allowance at Keeneland vs. much better. After winning this last spring, then the Keeneland loss he started this FG session with two seconds on the main - both in photos - before winning his last two over the turf. Clearly the one to beat despite the draw.
6:53 Race 12: The Costa Rising - 5 1/2f TURF
While his victories have been close shaves, 11-Jocamo's Song (3/1) has proven three times that he can find the finish line, especially against all his "old friends" that line up here today. No reason to think he won't be in front when the camera flashes today. Typically in an event filled with runners who've taken turns with each other I like the "new shooter." The only one to qualify as that today also tries the turf for the first time. 4-Icy Gentleman (50/1) is bred for turf and if able to transfer his dirt numbers will give the top one a run for his money. Looks to have company on the front end. It might simply be "track logic" that 1-Rock N Sake (9/2) gets "his turn" today after running second in three straight. Gets the better of the draw for sure.
The Field:
1-Rock N Sake has run second in three straight turf springs against two of today's rivals, never beaten more than 1 1/2 lengths ... maybe. 2-Brilliant Interest is the likely pace setter, did just that to wire a 2nd level allowance group two back, then set the table for THREE of today's rivals when fading to sixth last out. 3-Afro Blue wired his debut start on turf and was a solid third on dirt, but would need to improve double digits to contend. 4-Icy Gentleman is a multiple state-bred stakes winner, but has NEVER been over the inner course. If able to transfer form he'd be an interesting contender. 5-Just Kissing Buck has not been on the inner since last spring when BURIED by three of these, no. 6-Hail To The Nile will be running late, but has been beaten previously by four of today's rivals. 7-Eden's Gray Kitten has traded punches with several of these, winning one, but typically is close without winning to the better ones. 8-Jazzy Rebel was not even close in two tries vs. the favorites. 9-My Friend Flavin was 2nd beaten a neck to the top one then turned the tables in December....but note that was on the main going six furlongs The likely alternative to the chalk. 10-Nubin Ridge beaten by both the top ones, seems unlikely. 11-Jockamo's Song is three-for-four on the inner course at this distance and is the one who typically takes all these to the woodshed. His lone loss on the grass was in an OPEN allowance at Keeneland vs. much better. After winning this last spring, then the Keeneland loss he started this FG session with two seconds on the main - both in photos - before winning his last two over the turf. Clearly the one to beat despite the draw.
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