Week 17

Week 15 - Dubai World Cup Week

We enter the final week of racing before Florida Derby Week and the conclusion of the Championship Meet with the highlight being from Meydan Racecourse in Dubai where Saturday will be the Dubai World Cup card featuring the $10 Million Group 1 Dubai World Cup!

Wednesday/Thursday March 22-23

I was, unfortunately, able to group these two days of racing together as I started off the week with an 0-for day.  On the ten race card I only had four selections but none of them ran to form.  In the third I was the 9/5 choice and tracked the pace on the turf into the stretch, but evenly to the wire to be third.  In the sixth I was evenly all the way around, again at 9/5....fifth.  I was a distant sixt at 9/2 in the 7th and I had my closest finish in the ninth when a non-threatening second on Kismet's Heels when wide throughout while chasing a lone speed who was 5/1.

Thursday I played not only Gulfstream's races but also had three selections from the Fair Grounds, including my "Best of the Day" in their ninth race.  One of my favorite turf horses, Chocolate Ride had lost twice as the favorite over the New Orleans course and I was worried he'd lost his will and drive to win.  But when I read he was dropping out of graded stakes to an allowance event today I figured his connections were looking to get a confidence booster into him and if he would ever win, it was today.  So I handicapped their card as well.  I was third in back to back Gulfstream races (at 3/1 and 7/5) both after setting the pace and then giving way.  I ran fourth in my first play at the Fair Grounds at 3/1 when I ran evenly all the way around the turf course.  But I finally go my first win of the day and week in Gulfstream's sixth.  I typically don't win as often with turf sprints and I next to never back a last-out maiden winner, unless they are of high quality, like a Pletcher runner.  But today Eloy Rod had wired a maiden field while setting fractions of :21 flat and :43.4 for trainer Jorge Navarro and jockey Paco Lopez.  No one else could run close to those figures and he appeared to be able to run slower and STILL cruise on the front end.  But as a last-out maiden claiming winner I only went in for the minimum.  The crowd hammered him to 6/5 and he did indeed go coast to coast without ever taking a deep breath.  

I missed in the ninth when I listed Meadow Rose and Apologynotaccepted as my top two choices and went with the former.  I was 2/1, the other was the 6/5 winner.  The 7th at the Fair Grounds was like earlier races when Conquest Serenade went to the front in a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint then stopped, finishing seventh at 5/2.  Then it was time for the "big race."  Chocolate Ride was hovering around 6/5, which I thought was a good price, but then the late money came pouring in.  He stalked the leader to the stretch, split horses and opened up late to win going away!  I'll take the win knowing I made a "prime time" bet and was right :)

Friday March 24

Today was a good day of racing :)  Although I would have doubted this at the beginning of the day as Policy Portfolio was sent off at 2/1, and went right to the front, only to be caught in mid-stretch and finish second in a 2-lifetime turf sprint  But I bounced back in the third with Leopard Cat in a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds going nine furlongs on the turf.  He was an obvious choice I thought after having rallied into a :51 - 1:15 pace to be a best of the rest second after Javier Castellano had badly misjudged the pace and when to start running in his previous.  He got top rider Luis Saez today and with ANY kind of pace he projected to win.  He tracked an honest (:23.1-:47.1-1:12) pace to the turn; split horses at the top of the stretch and edged clear late.  But as the horses were returning to the winner's circle the trainer of the second place runner lodged an objection.  I chuckled out loud when I saw the head on replay.....that trainer's horse came out and bumped ME in mid-stretch!  The stewards quickly dismissed the claim of foul and the prices came up.  

My double investment netted me nearly $25 back into my account.  After running second and fourth in my next two plays - both minimum investments - I was ready for the two "big races" of the day.  I was so nearly certain I would win both of them that I'd considered driving out to Gulfstream to watch them live.  If they'd been earlier in the card rather than the 9th and 10th - going off at 5 and 5:30 pm - I would have.  But I had no desire to drive out there for two races and then deal with the rush hour traffic on the way home.  In the ninth it was a second level allowance event going six furlongs.  Todd Pletcher's Kinsley Kisses just towered over her rivals in here.  She had won her debut at the very difficult distance of seven furlongs and came right back to beat allowance runners.  Then she had run third in back-to-back Grade 3 events before being outrun in a Grade 1.  Now off a long layoff and back to allowance runners she looked much the best.  She was away slowly but recovered quickly to take over before they'd run a quarter of a mile and then she gave them all "kisses" as she drew off as she pleased.  I had listed the wager for $30 but I was nearly certain I'd up that at post time, and I did!  

Whoooo hooooo - love to win those big bets even if I don't get rich :)  The tenth was a one mile turf event for starter-optional claimers.  On February 8th I'd been at Gulfstream standing on the rail as I went against the two hotties that handicap Gulfstream - Acacia Courtney and Gabby Gaudet - because I thought that Class and Cash looked like the lone speed.  He waltzed around the track and I scored easily.  He'd been entered back last week and looked to be part of a multi-horse speed duel so I had gone with a closer, but he scratched out.  Here he was today and once again he projected to be loose on the lead.  I thought that the 4/5 price was more than fair considered he not only looked to be long gone but the girls told everyone he would be long gone as they made him their top choice.  Right to the front and never looked back, easy as you please!  

I finished the day 3-for-6 with a nice profit!

Saturday March 25

Saturday was the big day of the racing week and with the time difference my first bet at Meydan was at 7:45 am.  In the first from Meydan it was the $2 Million Group 1 Godolphin Mile.  There was one thing I was absolutely certain of - the favorite, Gulfstream shipper Sharp Azteca would NOT win.  I'd never been a fan of his.  I beat him with Zulu on Opening Day last winter.  In his next start he was a heavy favorite and I played Todd Pletcher's Boalt Hall who won at a big 9/1 price.  I didn't like him in his last when he won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap at a one-turn mile, but the racing writers had dubbed him a superstar.  I went with the local horse, North America (ironic, eh?) who was a perfect 4-for-4 at the distance over the track.  He set the pace at 2/1 then Sharp Azteca blew by at the top of the lane at 4/5.  I just knew he wasn't a match for world class runners and I also had little confidence that local journeyman Edgar Zayas could bring home the big prize on the international stage.  Sure enough, they'd moved too soon in the long stretch and he was passed by TWO longshots late.  So I was vindicated, at least half way :)  I missed in the fourth, the UAE Derby when Lancaster Bomber can running late at 6/1 to be third.  Then I thought I had really good chance with Postponed in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema who'd won this race last time out.  But he made a strong bid in the lane at 7/5, but had no late kick and was 4th.  Now it was time for THE big race.  EVERYONE knew that Arrogate was the best horse in the world.  But it's a horse race, and you never know.  But as I wrote, only something completely unforeseen, like terrible racing luck or an injury could prevent him from being MUCH the best here.  I made him my BET of the WEEK!  I thought he'd be at least 1/5 and maybe 2/5 in a full field of fourteen facing the "best horses in the world" but the crowd pounded him to 1/9.  The gates opened, and oh no.......

Arrogate, in post nine was off a step slowly and the #8 came out while the #10 came in and sandwiched him, immediately sending him to the back of the pack some fifteen lengths off the leaders.  This was bad enough, but his running style is to be on or pressing the lead - in fact many had predicted he'd go right to the front and wire this field!  Afterwards the announcers told the audience they were standing by trainer Bob Baffert who reacted by shaking his head and lowering it, saying, "Not today, I just hope Mike takes care of the horse....."  My heart sank and I just knew I'd lost all my money.  Wow.  But I could see that Smith wasn't about to give up on the greatest horse in the world.  He was some six to eight wide through the first turn but he was picking horses off to reach about mid-pack as they turned down the backstretch.  He steadily advanced to be about sixth into the far turn, and was still wide avoiding traffic and kick back.  Then the Hall of Fame jockey asked for run and the response was immediate and remarkable.  When the field turned for home the quality Gunrunner was clear on the lead but Arrogate was in full flight and had reached third with a full head of steam.  He not only caught the leader, but went by him at the furlong pole and was motored down through the final 100 yards in THE MOST AMAZING race I've ever seen.  It didn't matter than I made very little money, I was happy to have seen this remarkable effort and been completely on board.

I have already committed to going to Saratoga this summer and I had penciled in to be there on Alabama Stakes day to see Unique Bella run.  But I've read that Arrogate will probably take the next few months off before running this summer - if it's at Saratoga I may have to change my plans.  But regardless, his ultimate target for the year is to defend his title in the 2017 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar, and I already have tickets for that!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Check out the replay:

2017 Dubai World Cup - Arrogate

Still riding the high off seeing this I had several selections at Gulfstream on their Saturday card.  Because the "big bet" had been in Dubai and I'd watched that at home I had decided to stay home and play online; and besides, Kim's parents were coming, so Ed and I could watch NCAA basketball together.  My first bet was in the opener, a non-winners of one allowance going six furlongs.  Four of the six entered would want the front so Bill Mott's True Pleasure looked to be the legitimate off-the-pace winner.  But most of his races had been sprinting on the turf.  Still, he had run a good third on the dirt in December.  I bet him, but only the minimum.  Sure enough Jose Ortiz had him fifth of the six early, then rallied up the inside in time to win.  Only cashed for $8 but I'd had my big thrill for the day :)

I missed in the fourth, a maiden claiming on the turf when Mandeville rallied from seventh into third turning for home, but hung and finished third at 2/1.  My "Best" of the day at Gulfstream came in the fifth, a Maiden Special for three-year-old fillies sprinting on the turf.  I'd bet on Christophe Clement's Tu Exageres in his debut in January when he had Javier Castellano.  But like he's done throughout the meet Castellano was away slowly and then raced wide throughout to finish second.  Next time out he was stretched out to a mile and for some reason Castellano dueled on the lead and he faded.  With the switch to Jose Ortiz and return to a turf sprint I thought he'd be MUCH the best today.  The crowd agreed sending him off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.  He made a strong bid into the stretch but then the leader made a right hand turn and Ortiz had to take Tu Exageres up sharply.  He got back into stride, but the damage was done, second.  I knew that there HAD to be an INQUIRY and there was.  Oh that's right baby, take him down!  And the stewards saw the obvious and moved him down to second while I was elevated to first.  Again, not going to get rich, but it's all about being right and putting up the "big bucks!"

Cashed for almost $30 on my third winner of the day.  I was third in the eighth at 9/5 when I dueled on the lead and gave way late to a 99/1 winner - paid $206.40 for a $2 bet.  WOW.  In the tenth I had Secretary at War in a MSW for 3yo on the turf.  Right to the front and was L-O-N-G gone.  As the 7/5 favorite he paid $4.80 so I collected nearly $25 on my fourth winner of the day.

My chances to make a profit would be carried by the next two races.  In the Any Limit Stakes Cursor was the even money favorite but was held at the back of the pack chasing a slow pace; came wide into the lane and was too late, second.  Then Todd Pletcher's Zulu disappointed as the even money favorite in the Grade 3 Skip Away.  He officially finished second but he was only second on the final jump, well behind the winner who blew by in mid-stretch.

Sunday March 28
Not the best day, but not a complete washout.  I ran 2nd at 3/2 - right to the front, caught on the wire again, the theme of the week.  Rallied at 4/5 in the sixth to be third; and dueled on the lead in the eight at 3/1, forged to the front, then was caught late to finish third.  But in the last bet of the week, and fortunately the "big bet" of the day, I was a winner.  In the 9th it was a 7 1/2 furlong turf event where I liked Compagno for Bill Mott.  He pressed a 35/1 leader into the turn, took over and then dueled the length of the stretch with the 2/1 second choice.  To be fair the two of them DID exchange bumps but that one was never going by me.  The INQUIRY sign went up and they looked at it but determined that both of them had caused issues, neither of which would have cost the other a placing spot so Compagno remained the official winner!

The 6/5 favorite paid $4.40 and that led to more than $30 on my triple investment.  And now we can get ready for the big week and the BIG DAY, next Saturday is Florida Derby Day!

Florida Derby 2017

Florida Derby Day

Florida Derby Day 2017

Welcome to the 2017 Florida Derby Day Page!  What a G-R-E-A-T day today was!  In my humble opinion I would rank today's Florida Derby Adventure as one of the two best racing day adventures I've ever had....and as those of you that know me are aware, I've been on a LOT of racing adventures.  Here's a photographic look at the day.  You can check out the racing stories and details from a racing perspective by clicking HERE.

Your hosts for today - our 8th Florida Derby Day Group Adventure

Traditional Family Photo

We made the national news - note the group highlighted at left

Oliver's FIRST Derby Outfit

Racing Results - Florida Derby Day

The Handicappers Make Their Selections / Results

DEAD HEAT!

The BET of the DAY!

Jeff Hits THE PICK-6!

Florida Derby Day Recap

Florida Derby Winner Always Dreaming!

Louisiana Derby Day Stakes Preview

2:24  Race 3:  The New Orleans Ladies Overnight - 8 1/2 furlongs TURF

The first of the stakes would appear to go through trainer Brad Cox's 6-Cash Control (5/2) who is a multiple Grade 3 winner.  But it's worth noting that she was 2nd in this event last spring as the even money favorite and comes in here off a no excuse 4th as the 7/5 in a stakes race here.  Her inconsistency might call for an investment elsewhere.  8-Selenite (8/1) might be a good price play as the uncoupled entry to the top one but luring the top rider in Geroux.  Worrisome that she's not won since 2015 but she's one of only two others that have EVER earned Beyer speed figures that would beat the top one.  The other is 4-Prado's Sweet Ride (4/1) who actually finished 2nd, beaten a nose in her last when today's favorite was 4th at 7/5 odds.  Hard to think she's a legitimate threat when she was 3rd behind the top one at 30/1 and was 9/1 when beating her; then last out off the improved effort she was still ignored at 10/1 in a five horse field and ran to her odds finishing a well beaten fourth.

The Field:

1-Factory of Faith comes in off of back to back 2nd place finishes in 2nd level allowance races with paired Beyer figures that could signal a move forward today.  2-Princess of Erindelle has been distanced in three stakes, beat Factory of Faith two back (note it was an off-the-turf event).  3-Emerald Pond ships in from back-to-back graded stakes at Tampa.  Was 200/1 when 9th in her last.  4-Prado's Sweet Ride was a sharp 3rd in a stakes here, then missed by a nose two back in another stakes.  But was an even fourth running in the Daisy Divine here last out.  A return to the previous two would make her a threat.  In the photo finish 2nd she beat today's favorite, but in that third she was soundly beaten by today's favorite.  5-Susie Bee was a good fourth in this event last year and comes off a photo finish loss in a similar stakes at Sam Houston in her last.  6-Cash Control the obvious favorite.  If she runs her "A" race she scores today, but last time out she was the beaten 7/5 favorite behind Prado's Sweet Ride.  The likely winner, but not a slam dunk.  7-Dynazar has not won since beating allowance foes in September and has been beaten by the principals here more than once.  8-Selenite was completely outrun by several of these earlier in the winter, and is the "other" Brad Cox entry.  Interesting he sends out the favorite, but top national rider Florent Geroux is on this one.  9-Silent Robin was on the lead before fading behind today's favorite when they met last year.

2:51  Race 4:  The Crescent City Oaks - (3yo) 1m/70  

4-Mr. Al's Gal (5/2) looks to leave the gate as a short-priced favorite to earn her fifth win in just six starts.  Has beaten most of these by daylight previously.  She is the ONLY filly in the field who's beaten open winners; she is the only stakes winner (a THREE-TIME stakes winner); and she has won here before.  The one fact that gives us cause for pause is that TODAY she comes off a layoff and the only other time she did that was her lone loss!  Hmmm.  12-Rose Guitar (12/1) is the ONLY one in here who's not raced against the other fillies.  Might be enough of an advantage.  Her daddy, Star Guitar OWNED the Fair Grounds state-bred stakes for years.  Look for her to outrun her odds.  2-What's The Point (6/1) the only filly based locally and judging by her Tomlinson figures she should love the added distance today.
The Field:
1-Shashim Blaster has been beaten, soundly, by SIX of today's fellow fillies.  2-What's The Point has never gone beyond six furlongs and her most recent, a loss in a 3-lifetime allowance was the first time she was NOT racing for a tag.  3-Moonlightnmidnight stretched out to a mile and wired the field earning a career best figure three back.  Has since been soundly beaten, including a double-digit loss to three of today's rivals.  4-Mr. Al's Gal has won four of five starts including a state-bred stakes like this over this track.  She's got two turn experience and races on or near the lead without being a "need to lead" filly.  Note that win was the barn's lone victory in New Orleans (1-for-11).  5-D'Wild Muffin was flying late to just miss to the top one in a five furlong maiden event; never been two turns but might like the longer distance today.  Upset potential.  6-Our Millie actually beat the favorite early on but has been second twice to her since.  Steps up off a 3L win here as the 3/5 favorite.  7-Madame Beague has been beaten a combined 30+ lengths in her last four starts.  8-My Gal Layla has been third behind 'Al and 'Millie at odds of 16/1 and 28/1 in her last two.  Never raced at the Fair Grounds, could that turn the trick?  9-EZ's All Attitude missed in back-to-back 2-lifetime tries before finally getting the win in that kind of race last out.  10-Bermuda Star has improved with each start and was thought enough of to race in stakes as a maiden; comes off maiden victory, albeit on the turf.  11-Naughty Little Nun has lost to FOUR of today's rivals previously.  12-Rose Guitar comes off an authoritative maiden win.

3:45  Race 6:  The Crescent City Derby - (3yo) 8 1/2 furlongs 

An interesting 3yo stakes with a full field.  10-Tip Tap Tapizar (5/1) has legitimate reasons to "open the handicapping window" all the way back to his last win last summer.  He was a legitimate 2yo colt with promise after winning at first asking.  Then was third in a Gr 3 behind Classic Empire who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  Was third in a Gr 2 behind Gunnever who last out won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and is a favorite for today's Florida Derby.  Then he won Monmouth's Sapling Stakes at a mile distance.  Off a layoff in a Gr 3 and then in the mud in a Gr 3 can be scratched out.  His last was an even fourth behind the top two program choices.  Might surprise. We'll find out how good 13-Underpressure (3/1) is today as he's clearly the most talented, but must break from somewhere in the New Orleans parking lot.  The fact that he comes from off the pace and that is the prevalent winning running style here both play into his favor.  He has improved with each and every start and is bred for more distance being out of Birdstone.  Should relish the return to state-bred rivals today.  If I'm jockey Fernando Torres I'm taking 1-Jack's Snipe (9/2) right to the front from the rail draw and playing catch me if you can as there does not appear to be a legitimate front runner in the field.  Might get brave if left alone too long.
The Field:
1-Jack's Snipe has run in four consecutive state-bred stakes like this with a win, two thirds and a fourth.  Note in the last, when fourth behind two of today's rivals he was a 12/1 outsider.  2-Set Hut was drilled by Jack's Snipe three back and has lost in back-to-back allowance tries, including a 2-lifetime event last out.  3-Paddy O'Lionel was not in the same zip code the only time in a stakes and comes off back-to-back losses in conditioned company.  4-Ida's Warrior broke his maiden on the turf two back before being beaten by Set Hut last out.  5-Magic Vow had his three race win streak snapped with back-to-back second place finishes behind two of today's rivals in his most recent.  His off the pace running style might be better suited to the Fair Grounds today.  6-Amp'd Up had back to back 2nd place finishes on the dirt set up his last out maiden breaker on the grass.  7-Big Maurice has been beaten soundly by FOUR of today's Derby rivals.  8-Freakonthelead did just that, "freaking out" two back to beat today's likely favorite at odds of 70/1; but was beaten by that one in the rematch last time out by over twenty lengths at 30/1 odds.  9-Imindycatbirdseat was a double digit loser to Jack Snipe's show finish in his only stakes try.  10-Tip Tap Tapizar ran in open stakes after winning Monmouth's Sapling as a 2yo; but was not a factor.  Dropped into a state-bred stakes last out and was only fourth behind the top two in here.  11-True Emporer won at first asking and was a good third in a sprint vs. 2-lifetime allowance runners last out.  Never been a distance of ground.  12-Rollwithit still a maiden.  13-Underpressure has won three of four state-bred events including a stakes event.  Was a sharp 4th beaten 3 1/2 vs OPEN allowance runners last out.  The parking lot post position does him no favors but at least he's a come from behind runner so it won't be a total compromise.  14-Evan Lee G has a single win, in a $20K maiden sprint.

4:39  Race 8:  Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap - 9f  

While there appear to be at least two others that like to run on or near the lead, no one appears fast enough to keep 9-Noble Bird (5/2) occupied meaning he'll be loose on the lead despite the outside draw today.  He exits the KEY Grade 1 $12 Million Pegasus World Cup where he led to the far turn before being no match for the world's most amazing thoroughbred, Arrogate.  'Bird is also the most accomplished at this nine furlong distance with three victories.  Look for Florent Geroux to set sail on the lead and never look back.  1-Breaking Lucky (4/1) is on an "up-and-down" cycle and today should be an "up" which would make him very dangerous at a big price while rallying from mid-pack.  3-International Star (6/1) JUST missed in the prep for this, the Gr 3 Mineshaft after getting rolling too late while flying up the rail.  Interesting that Tyler Gafflione flies in from So Fla and gets the mount today for the first time on this "Horse-for-the-Course."
The Field:
1-Breaking Lucky is tough to figure....two of his last four he has been badly distanced, but in the other two he was second best in the Gr 1 Clark behind Gunrunner, who was just 2nd in the $10 Million Gr 1 Dubai World Cup and second best in the Gr 1 Woodward behind Shaman's Ghost who won the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap two weeks ago.  On his best day he's a legitimate threat, at a good price.  2-Iron Fist has been competitive with some good handicap runners but would appear to have to improve significantly to improve today.  3-International Star was FLYING up the rail to just miss in the Gr 3 Mineshaft (as my top pick at 9/1!) last time out.  Loves this course (9/4-2-0) and has to be considered in the mix.  4-Honorable Duty is lightly raced with wins in five of his last seven, including back-to-back scores HERE, the most recent a Grade 3 win in the Mineshaft.  5-Aglimpseofgabby lost by 35 lengths in his only dirt try but has run well on the grass - this race is on the dirt....go figure.  6-Hawaakom won the Fair Grounds Handicap here in January and then was a best-of-the-rest 2nd behind Gunrunner in Arkansas before he ran 2nd Saturday in the Dubai World Cup.  7-Roman Approval has not been on the dirt since December 2015 and has SIXTEEN runner up finishes.  8-Mo Tom was on the Derby Trail this time last year suffering through brutal trips.  Won the Ohio Derby to vindicate his ability, but was nowhere to be found in the Gr 3 Mineshaft.  9-Noble Bird will be a wire-to-wire threat as a multiple graded stakes winner.  The outside draw and his inconsistent running are issues.  But he exits the Gr 1 $12 Million Pegasus World Cup where he led to the far turn before giving way.  The winner, Arrogate came back in the most amazing race I've ever seen to win the Gr 1 Dubai World Cup and confirm his status as the best thoroughbred in the world; the runner-up came back to win the Gr 1 Santa Anita Handicap; and the show runner came back to run third in the Dubai World Cup.  10-Eagle won the Tenacious Handicap to kick off the 2015-6 season here and then disappointed in three straight handicaps.  One win since in Keeneland's Gr 3 Ben Ali makes him hard to trust, but note that win came over Noble Bird and Breaking Lucky!

5:06  Race 9:  Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Handicap - 9f  TURF  

If 8-Kasaqui (5/2) runs what is his typical race he's the clear-cut winner today.  Not been seen since a just-miss try in Tampa in January, but he's seen nothing but graded company for over a year.  Considering the big events at Tampa since his last and that he's based there, you have to believe this race was circled on the calendar and he's well meant today.  Probably the "best bet" is to play 1-Enterprising (9/2) across the board.  He's ultra-consistent, but I don't think he's good enough to win here.  If 5-One Mean Man (20/1) is even half his DRF odds he's a good gamble at that price.
The Field:
1-Enterprising has never been worse than third and never more than three behind the winner since leaving New York last July.  He was the winner of the Gr 3 Fair Grounds Handicap last out, the prep for this and has Gulfstream regular Tyler Gafflione on board.  2-Blarp won an allowance in November, but that's been his only victory since the fall of 2015.  3-Sky Flight has shown flashes of talent, such as winning the Tropical Park Derby as a 3yo.  The connections must have seen something to put down $62K to claim him two back.  Interesting he set the pace in the Dibartolo Handicap here in December because he is NOT a front runner by nature.  4-Roman Approval is cross-entered in the Grade 2 New Orleans the race prior, but he is a turf runner; look for him to show up here, but he won't be a legitimate win contender here either.  5-One Mean Man fits on his best - hard to have a lot of confidence when noting his last three turf wins were by a head, a nose, and a half length.  6-Granny's Kitten just missed in the Dibartolo, was just up in a photo to win the Gr 3 Colonel Bradley and then lost all chance when bobbled at the break in the Gr 3 Fair Grounds.  Would not be a surprise on his best.  7-Pumpkin Rumble won an allowance here in December 2015 but has gone winless since.  8-Kasaqui won the Gr 3 Arlington Handicap last summer and just missed when starting his rally too late in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay in February (as my pick!).  Four of his last five starts have earned triple digit figures stamping him as the one to beat - the non 100 was a 98 in the Gr 3 Arlngton victory.  9-Oscar Nominated led to deep stretch before giving way to Enterprising last time out.  I think he's overrated.  10-Special Ops has won back-to-back allowance events and tries a graded stakes for the first time today.

5:41  Race 10:  Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks - (3yo) 8 1/2 f  

It would look on paper like the program favorite, 6-Farrell (7/2) will be odds on at post time and a very likely winner in the winter feature for three-year-old fillies here at the historic Fair Grounds.  She's swept through both of the local preps after scoring decisively in the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs to conclude her two-year-old campaign.  The good news is she should stamp her ticket to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks as the best filly east of the Rocky Mountains (the Gulfstream Oaks does not appear to have anyone who is of this caliber) - the bad news is that she will undoubtedly run into So Cal's superstar filly, Unique Bella who I think is the best three-year-old of EITHER sex on the first Friday in May.  If you're concerned about the ordinary Beyer figures then the best chance for an upset may come from 7-Summer Luck (9/2) who comes off a close third in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream or 5-Vexatious (8/1) who ships in from So Cal.  1-Majestic Quality (5/1) will undoubtedly improve after a good second to the favorite in her first try vs. winners, but can she make up all those lengths, especially considering that Farrell wasn't being pushed late by the rider.
The Field:
1-Majestic Quality gets high marks for running second in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra in her first start vs. winners last time out, out-finishing BC Juvenile Filly runner-up Valadorna for the place money.  The problem is she was no threat to the winner who's back in here.  2-Daria's Angel wired a field of MSW 3yo fillies while being wrapped up late, earning a figure big enough to enter the conversation here.  3-Wicked Lick broke her maiden on the turf and really hasn't been a threat on dirt, outfinished twice by the favorite today.  4-Corporate Queen broke her maiden for Mark Casse at first asking and then was second best behind a Pletcher odds-on filly at Gulfstream off the shelf while giving that one all she could handle to mid-stretch.  Might be this good.  5-Vexatious ships in from So Cal after running third in allowance company.  Neil Drysdale a normally very conservative conditioner would not be here to "see what he's got.  6-Farrell will be a short priced favorite based on four wins from six starts and back-to-back authoritative victories here in the filly series.  My problem is that her numbers are NOT extraordinary.  But who steps up to take her on today?  7-Summer Luck is the second Mark Casse in the field.  Comes off a very close third in the Gr 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream, so the fact she shows up here to take on the highly regarded Farrell instead of staying home to run in the Gulfstream Oaks is interesting.  Patrick Husbands slated to fly to New Orleans from Toronto to take the mount.  Hmmmm.  8-Queen Bernardina has been beaten by nearly 25 lengths in her last two, but does change hands to move into the Brett Calhoun barn.

6:21 - Race 10

Grade 2 $1 Million Louisiana Derby (3yo)

9 furlongs

Race analysis follows the individual comments.....

Patch Todd Pletcher sophomore debuted in Gulfstream sprint without speed.  Found himself TENTH into the far turn before FLYING home to be 2nd.  Stretched to a one-turn mile last time out he responded with a sharp victory. 

Hollywood Handsome Took five tries for this colt to finally break through, then was third in a two-turn, entry-level allowance last time.  Triple Crown nominated, but has yet to put up a strong number.

Local Hero Debuted with two sprint tries in late fall when second in both.  First try this winter was a two-turn MSW event here at the Fair Grounds where he responded with a highly rated victory, earning an 89 Beyer when scoring as the even money favorite.  Right off that maiden win he was sent to the Grade 2 Risen Star and was a long time leader before faltering late to be a narrowly beaten third while nearly duplicating the big maiden figure, earning an 87 in defeat.

Senior Investment Has crossed the line first in three straight Fair Ground route races.  Broke his maiden in style then took down an entry level allowance, but the stewards DQ'd him.  Right back in a softer 2-lifetime allowance last time out he won with authority.  Steps into a stakes for the first time with moderate speed figures for a 3-for-39 barn.

Monaco The second Pletcher colt in the field - this one owned by top NY owner Michael Repole.  On the pace until the stretch in his Spa debut before fading.  Came back with a just-miss second at Gulfstream, then graduated by a dozen widening lengths at Tampa as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite.  The $1.3 Million sales grad carries high expectations but will need to improve by nearly twenty lengths on the speed figure scale to make a dent here today.

Guest Suite In his first try going a route of ground at Keeneland last fall - his second career start - he scored decisively.  Came back in the Street Sense at Churchill and was a good third behind the unbeaten McCracken who's atop the Derby standings presently.  Right back to score by nearly a dozen in allowance company at CD to conclude his juvenile season.  Won the Gr 3 LaComte here, the first step on the Derby Trail to kick off his 3yo campaign.  While he comes from off the pace he found himself inexplicably ten lengths back early in the Gr 2 Risen Star.  A strong middle move then evenly to the wire to finish fourth.  Back-to-back bullet works would indicate he's ready to roll today.  Must avoid falling so far out of it today. 

Sorry Erick Must have made some impression on the connections as he was claimed out of a Santa Anita $20K claiming event, then won an entry level allowance.  Off that he was sent here to try the Gr 2 Risen Star where he was in another county at the finish, yet is back today.  Would be a huge surprise.

Girvin Won his dirt sprint debut here in December then was a close second to at the time unbeaten Cowboy Culture in the McGee Memorial going a mile on the turf.  The connections decided to try the dirt in the Gr 2 Risen Star and were rewarded when he finished with a strong closing kick to win going away and earn a field-best last race Beyer of 93 (his first two earned identical 87 figs).  He now is considered one of the leading Kentucky Derby candidates and will be the likely favorite this afternoon.

Hotfoot Was beaten in a 2-lifetime event two back, on the turf.  Hardly.  

The question for handicappers is which of the these lightly raced, improving three year-olds will take the next big step forward this afternoon.  I will be the first to admit that I was initially unimpressed when 8-Girvin (3/1) produced in the Grade 2 Risen Star and was even more surprised to see him near the top of the next set of Kentucky Derby rankings.  But it's hard to argue with the consistent nature of his Beyer figures.  And with only three races under his belt he figures to have improvement in him still.  He has worked well since that race and if he just runs the SAME race he'll probably win again today and move on to Kentucky as one of the betting choices on the first Saturday in May.  The one that intrigues me most in here is 6-Guest Suite (4/1) who was compromised by the mysterious drop to the back tactic last time out.  If he sits closer to the pace today, and based on his quick works, I think that's exactly what will happen, then he stands an excellent chance to move forward and be the one doing the best running late in the decisive ninth furlong.  It's worrisome that trainer Neil Howard - who's proven over time to be a very good conditioner is a mere 1-for-31 in 2017 and only 2-for-39 here since the meet opened in November.  Todd Pletcher's 1-Patch (6/1) earned a gigantic 89 speed figure in that last out win and if the top trainer in North America sends him here for a $1 Million Grade 2 event, then I'm inclined to think he just might be that good.  A little disconcerting that the only Gulfstream rider willing to come along is So Fla summer leading rider Tyler Gafflione.  He might be the surprise package, and based on the way One Liner shipped to Oaklawn to win the Gr 3 Southwest and then Malagacy shipped to Oaklawn to win the Gr 2 Rebel, maybe Pletcher truly is loaded with quality three-year-olds.  3-Local Hero (7/2) might have the most talent still untapped as that was a HUGE effort to come back off a big figure maiden win to run so well in a Grade 2 event.  If able to ratchet down his early speed and set a more controlled pace today he could easily be long gone.  Has worked sharply since the fading effort in the Risen Star, but I'm inclined to think he's still learning and will be headstrong again.  That will make getting the full nine furlongs a big obstacle in his way this afternoon.

6:53  Race 12:  The Costa Rising - 5 1/2f TURF  
While his victories have been close shaves, 11-Jocamo's Song (3/1) has proven three times that he can find the finish line, especially against all his "old friends" that line up here today.  No reason to think he won't be in front when the camera flashes today.  Typically in an event filled with runners who've taken turns with each other I like the "new shooter."  The only one to qualify as that today also tries the turf for the first time.  4-Icy Gentleman (50/1) is bred for turf and if able to transfer his dirt numbers will give the top one a run for his money.  Looks to have company on the front end.  It might simply be "track logic" that 1-Rock N Sake (9/2) gets "his turn" today after running second in three straight.  Gets the better of the draw for sure.
The Field:
1-Rock N Sake has run second in three straight turf springs against two of today's rivals, never beaten more than 1 1/2 lengths ... maybe.  2-Brilliant Interest is the likely pace setter, did just that to wire a 2nd level allowance group two back, then set the table for THREE of today's rivals when fading to sixth last out.  3-Afro Blue wired his debut start on turf and was a solid third on dirt, but would need to improve double digits to contend.  4-Icy Gentleman is a multiple state-bred stakes winner, but has NEVER been over the inner course.  If able to transfer form he'd be an interesting contender.  5-Just Kissing Buck has not been on the inner since last spring when BURIED by three of these, no.  6-Hail To The Nile will be running late, but has been beaten previously by four of today's rivals.  7-Eden's Gray Kitten has traded punches with several of these, winning one, but typically is close without winning to the better ones.  8-Jazzy Rebel was not even close in two tries vs. the favorites.  9-My Friend Flavin was 2nd beaten a neck to the top one then turned the tables in December....but note that was on the main going six furlongs  The likely alternative to the chalk.  10-Nubin Ridge beaten by both the top ones, seems unlikely.  11-Jockamo's Song is three-for-four on the inner course at this distance and is the one who typically takes all these to the woodshed.  His lone loss on the grass was in an OPEN allowance at Keeneland vs. much better.  After winning this last spring, then the Keeneland loss he started this FG session with two seconds on the main - both in photos - before winning his last two over the turf.  Clearly the one to beat despite the draw.